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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — APRIL 30/MAY 7, 2021
Butter stocks stay the same, cheese stocks build This column was written for the marketUri, was up 3.9 percent on 27,000 more ing week ending April 23. cows, but output per cow was down 15 pounds. Vermont was down 4.3 percent U.S. milk output grew for the 10th conon 5,000 fewer cows and a five pound secutive month and set a bearish new drop per cow, and Washington State was monthly high in March. The U.S. down 1.2 percent on 2,000 fewer cows, Department of Agriculture’s preliminary and a 10 pound drop per cow. data shows output hit 19.75 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from March 2020. Matt Gould, analyst and editor of the Output in the top 24 states, at 18.84 bilDairy and Food Market Analyst newsletMIELKE MARKET lion, was up 2 percent. Revisions added 37 ter, pointed out in the April 26 “Dairy WEEKLY million pounds to the original February Radio Now” broadcast the report was far By Lee Mielke 50-state estimate, now put at 17.7 billion from bullish — though it did point out pounds, up 2.3 percent from a year some regional items of interest. ago, after adjusting for the Leap Day. Milk output growth slowed in the March cow numbers were up for Southwest and actually fell in the the 14th consecutive month, totaling Northeast, he said, and both regions 9.468 million head in the 50 states. This is up 8,000 were impacted by processor level supply managefrom February’s count, which was revised up 2,000 ment programs, while other regions saw unhindered head, and up 77,000 from March 2020. growth. Output per cow averaged 2,086 pounds, up 20 Dairy demand is the crucial factor and Gould pounds or 1 percent from a year ago. pointed out that, prior to the Covid pandemic, we consumed more cheese and butter via restaurants California was up 1.5 percent from a year ago, than at home. We’re seeing more people traveling thanks to a 35-pound gain per cow, but with 2,000 and eating out again, he said, so dairy demand at fewer cows. Wisconsin jumped a tank-busting 97 retail is shifting back to food service. “That begs the million pounds or 3.7 percent from March 2020, question,” he concluded, “Can we grow dairy thanks to a 65-pound gain per cow and 7,000 more demand fast enough to keep up with supply. So far cows the answer is yes, but as we move forward it Idaho was up 0.8 percent on 5,000 more cows, but becomes a bit more murky.” output per cow was unchanged. Michigan was up Dairy cow culling topped the previous month and 3.5 percent on 14,000 more cows and a five pound year. The USDA’s latest Livestock Slaughter report gain per cow. Minnesota was up 7.6 percent on a shows an estimated 302,200 head were sent to 70-pound gain per cow and 17,000 more cows. New slaughter under federal inspection in March. This is Mexico, still recovering from winter storm Uri, was up 37,000 head from February and 14,200 or 4.9 down 1.1 percent, due to a 30-pound drop per cow, percent above March 2020. Culling in first quarter though cow numbers were up 1,000 head. 2021 totaled 844,700 head, down 7,800 or 0.9 perSouth Dakota took back the title of the biggest cent from the same period a year ago. gain, up 13.4 percent, thanks to 18,000 more cows Meanwhile, the annual Livestock Slaughter outweighing a 10-pound drop per cow. Indiana Summary reports 3.06 million dairy cows retired wasn’t far behind, up 10 percent, thanks to 17,000 from the dairy business in 2020, down 160,700 from more cows milked and a five pound per cow gain. 2019 or 5 percent. January saw the largest cull rate, Texas, which was also hit hard by winter storm at 298,500 head, with August having the lowest
MARKETING
Webinar on heat stress management NEW PRAGUE, Minn. — “Tips to Manage Heat Stress in Calves and Heifers” headlines the next Dairy Calf and Heifer Association webinar which starts at 2 p.m. on May 6. It’s commonplace for dairy producers to implement heat abatement management practices that help minimize the impacts of heat stress on lactating cows. However, hot weather doesn’t just affect lactating and dry cows. Young stock also experience the effects of heat and humidity. “From the dry cow pen to the AI (artificial insemination) pen, heat can negatively impact calves and heifers,” says Trout. This one-hour webinar, led by Jennifer Trout, a Cargill Animal Nutrition calf and
heifer specialist, will discuss ways to keep calves healthy and thriving during the challenging months of summer. To register for the webinar, go to http://bit.ly/ DCHAHEATSTRESS and follow the prompts. As the webinar approaches, you will receive an e-mail with information on how to log in to participate. The webinar is free. For more information, e-mail Sue Schatz at sue@ calfandheifer.org. This article was submitted by the Dairy Calf and Heifer Association. v
count, at 225,300 head. In the week ending April 10, 60,500 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, up 500 from the previous week but 4,100 or 6.3 percent less than that week a year ago. n Checking the cooler, March butter stocks didn’t shrink, but they didn’t build either, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report — and that’s good news. The March 31 butter inventory totaled 354.6 million pounds, virtually unchanged from the February level which was revised 1.9 million pounds higher, but was 45 million pounds or 14.5 percent above March 2020. March was the 21st consecutive month that butter stocks topped those a year ago. StoneX Dairy’s Dustin Winston says, “The report will heighten interest in the Dairy Products report as we look to see if strong demand or a lack of butter production triggered the unchanged stocks.” Butter stocks almost always increase between February and March, says StoneX, and 2010 was the last time that didn’t happen. The group of analysts believe “More milk was pushed to the Class III side of the market from Class IV, with the new St. Johns, Mich. cheese plant helping push that along.” American-type cheese stocks climbed to 831.8 million pounds, up 14.6 million pounds or 1.8 percent from February, which was revised up 1.2 million pounds, and is a whopping 55.4 million pounds or 7.1 percent above a year ago. The “other” cheese category hit 611.8 million pounds, up 14.4 million or 2.4 percent from February and 36.9 million or 6.4 percent above a year ago. The total cheese inventory stood at 1.47 billion pounds, up 30 million pounds or 2.1 percent from February and a hefty 91.8 million or 6.7 percent above a year ago. March was the fifth month in a row that total cheese stocks grew. The April 22 Daily Dairy Report says, “The increases in stocks of American and other cheese (mostly Italian varieties) was virtually equal, suggesting that cheese demand has been lackluster across both retail and foodservice channels.” The Daily Dairy Report added, “Lighter than anticipated government purchases may also have contributed to the accumulation of American cheese stocks, as some of this product could have been produced with the Food Box program in mind.” n Looking globally, the April 20 Global Dairy Trade auction weighted average slipped 0.1 percent following a 0.3 percent uptick on April 6. Lactose led the losses, down 3.4 percent after plunging 6.5 percent in the last event. Anhydrous milkfat was down 3.3 percent after inching 0.8 percent higher. Butter was off 0.6 percent, following a 2 percent advance. See MIELKE, pg. 15
