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Mielke Market Weekly
This column was written for the market- Minnesota milk prduction was up 6 ing week ending June 25. percent on 19,000 more cows and a U.S. milk output shot sharply higher in May, hitting a record 19.85 billion pounds, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s preliminary data. This is up 30-pound gain per cow. Wisconsin output was up 144 million pounds or 5.6 percent, on an 85-pound gain per cow and 17,000 more cows. 4.6 percent from May 2020, and the big- Dairy cow culling dropped below the gest month-to-month increase since March previous month and year in May. The 2006 — thanks to favorable weather, USDA’s latest Livestock Slaughter increased cow numbers, and increased report shows an estimated 223,400 head milk per cow. It was the 12th month in a were sent to slaughter under federal row to top year-ago output and was up a inspection, down 34,100 head from April hefty 4.1 percent from May 2019. and 9,900 or 4.2 percent below May May output in the top 24 producing 2020. Culling in the first five states, hit 18.9 billion pounds, up 4.9 months of 2021 totaled 1.37 million percent. head, down 39,700 or 2.9 percent
Keep in mind a year ago the nation was coping from the same period a year ago. with the Covid pandemic which had plunged dairy In the week ending June 12, 52,600 dairy cows product prices due to shuttered restaurants and were sent to slaughter. This is up 6,100 from the foodservice demand, created havoc throughout the previous week and 700 or 1.3 percent above that entire food chain, plus many dairy farmers faced week a year ago. milk production restrictions mandated by their cooperatives. n Revisions added 45 million pounds to the April estimate, now put at 19.34 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from a year ago, instead of the originally reported 3.3 percent. The nation’s dairy stocks are growing. The USDA’s latest Cold Storage report showed May 31 butter totaled a whopping 401.8 million pounds. This is up 15.6 million pounds or 4 percent above April, and a weighty 26 million pounds or 6.9 percent above
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May cow numbers were up for the 11th consecu- those on May 31, 2020. May was also the 23rd contive month, totaling 9.5 million head in the 50 secutive month butter stocks topped those of a year states, up 145,000 head from May 2020. May num- ago; but May is typically the month stocks peak and bers were up 5,000 from the April count which, with hover there for about one or two months, according USDA revisions, was up an astounding 26,000 head to StoneX. from March. American-type cheese climbed to 830.7 million
May output per cow averaged 2,088 pounds, up 61 pounds, up 4 million or 0.5 percent from the April pounds or 3 percent from 2020. level (which was revised down 4.1 million pounds from last month’s report), and were 10.7 million
MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY By Lee Mielke MARKETING
Garcia learned to set up markets in advance the hard way
AGUA GORDA, from pg. 10
the high tunnels. He also sells a few seedlings.
Javier has learned a lot over the years but he still places a call to his mentor, Rodrigo Calla, from timeto-time.
“I’ve been lucky to have a very good teacher,” he said.
Like any farmer, Javier is always dreaming of new projects. Lately, he’s been thinking how he could use his non-cultivated acres to raise some calves. In addition to growing produce at Agua Gorda, Javier manages the calves for Double Eagle Dairy near Clarissa, Minn. v pounds or 1.3 percent above a year ago.
The “other” cheese category jumped to 612.8 million pounds, up 11.9 million pounds or 2 percent from April, and 2.9 million or 0.5 percent above a year ago.
The total cheese inventory stood at a record high for the month of May at 1.465 billion pounds, up 16.6 million pounds or 1.1 percent from April, 10.8 million pounds or 0.7 percent above a year ago, and 79 million pounds or 6 percent higher than 2019.
Cheese consumption was still fairly strong in May, according to StoneX Dairy broker Dave Kurzawski. Speaking in the June 28 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast, Kurzawski said considering what happened to prices, demand likely dropped off at the end of May as the Food Box program ended and schools were closing — so there were some dynamics at work there.
Butter wise, Kurzawski said restaurant reopening demand in the first half of 2021 has since slowed some. The biggest users of butter and cream are the higher end, white tablecloth type restaurants, he said, and he doesn’t believe that demand has come back quite as strong as the other restaurant types.
Butter demand is not as strong as a year ago when people were quarantined at home “watching baking shows and making cookies and bread, etc.” That’s not happening now, Kurzawski said, plus business travel has not resumed to prior levels. n
Dairy farm margins continued to deteriorate over the first half of June as ongoing weakness in milk prices more than offset the impact of steady to weaker feed markets, according to the latest Margin Watch from Chicago-based Commodity and Ingredient Hedging LLC.
“Demand for dairy products remains quite strong on both the domestic and export markets,” the Margin Watch stated, but increased milk production is pressuring prices. It points out that milk production in the first four months of 2002 was up 2.5 percent from last year adjusting for the Leap Day, and Midwest cheese manufacturers are running 6-7 days every week while cream supplies are ample in the west.
“Recent intense heat in the west and northern plains may begin to temper milk production moving through the summer though, with temperatures hitting 110 degrees in California’s Central Valley,” the Margin Watch warned.
“The U.S. exported 547.7 million pounds of dairy products valued at $681.3 million in April, setting a record for the month and up 26.5 percent from last year,” according to the Margin Watch. “Accounting for Leap Day, U.S. dairy exports are up 14.9 percent from 2020 through the first four months of this year. Cheese exports of 89.1 million pounds were a
