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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — AUGUST 6/AUGUST 13, 2021
99 percent Minnesota soybeans in drought, 63 in Iowa NYSTROM, from pg. 19 22.7 million barrels and the second highest for late July since reporting began in 2010. Net margins improved 4 cents to 25 cents per gallon. Canada is reaching into the northern United States to originate nearby corn, and processors in Iowa were paying $7.00 plus to fill nearby holes for quick delivery. The September/December spread traded to a small carry during the week, but was back to an inverse by the weekend. Corn conditions as of July 25 were down 1 percent from the previous week at 64 percent good/excellent. Good conditions were down 1 percent and very poor ratings were up 1 percent. Corn silking was 79 percent vs. 73 percent on average and in the dough stage at 18 percent vs. 17 percent on average. China, the world’s largest phosphate exporter, announced some of their major fertilizer companies would temporarily suspend exports to ensure domestic supplies. Chinese domestic fertilizer prices hit record levels this year. Watch your local prices. The Wheat Quality Council tour indicated a North Dakota HRS wheat yield of 29.1 bushels per acre, the tour’s lowest number since the tour began in 1993. The five-year average from 2015-2019 (no tour in 2020) is 43.6 bu./acre and the USDA is pegging North Dakota’s HRS wheat yield at 28.0 bu./acre. Outlook: A sideways, consolidating week was seen for corn when July 30’s bell rang, and we could expect more of the same in the coming week. A very strong wheat market had provided early week support but changing weather forecasts and month-end positioning limited the week’s change. We will likely continue to experience big daily ranges and swings ahead of the Aug. 12 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report with every updated weather map scrutinized for something to trade. Who will rule the day – the eastern belt with potential in some places for record yields? Or the west where even average yields are questionable? We should begin to see trade estimates for the upcoming WASDE report next week. Seasonally, corn price direction has a lower tendency in August. Also of interest for the WASDE report will be the harvested acres number. The USDA has never increased that number on the August report in the last 10 years and has only BACKED BY A YEAR-ROUND
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reduced it three times in 2011, 2012, and 2019 — all years of drought or significant planting issues. For the week, September corn eased a quarter-cent lower to close at $5.47 and December corn managed to hang on to a meager 2.25 cent gain to settle at $5.45.25 per bushel. SOYBEANS — November soybeans followed the same pattern as corn this week with lots of daily action but at the end of the week there was little change in prices from the previous week. The most critical development time for soybeans is coming in the first two weeks of August. There is no reliable correlation of soybean conditions in July to the final yield. Soybean conditions as of July 25 were 58 percent good/excellent, down 2 percent from the previous week. The “good” category fell 2 percent. Soybeans blooming were 76 percent vs. 71 percent on average and setting pods was 42 percent vs. 36 percent on average. Development is slightly ahead of average making the first two weeks of August very important for yield. Weekly export sales were within expectations with net cancelations in the old crop of 2.9 million bushels and fresh sales of 11.5 million bushels for new crop. Old crop commitments are 2.27 billion bushels vs. the USDA estimate of 2.27 billion bushels. The old crop cancelations were to Japan and unknown. China has 28.7 million bushels of old crop purchases yet to ship. Flooding in China has led to an estimated loss of 1 million animals (pigs and chickens). Argentina’s low water levels continue to be a struggle, as noted in the corn comments. The lighter loading capacities in Argentina may shift some business back to the
United States for August and September. The Brazilian ag consultant Datagro expects soybean acres to increase 4 percent this fall to 100.2 million acres with production to hit 144 mmt. The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina’s soybean acreage to decline 1.5 percent, the lowest in 15 years. African swine fever has been found in the Dominican Republic. The United States already bans pork and pork products from the Dominican Republic due to previous disease issues, but it’s concerning it has gotten this close to the United States. Outlook: The latest drought monitor indicated 31 percent of U.S. soybean acres are under some level of drought, unchanged from last week. Ninety-nine percent of Minnesota’s soybeans were under drought, 98 percent in South Dakota, 100 percent in North Dakota, and 63 percent in Iowa as of July 27. For corn, 36 percent of U.S. corn acres were suffering drought with 98 percent in Minnesota and South Dakota, 100 percent in North Dakota, and 67 percent in Iowa. However, the seasonal direction for soybeans in August is lower, so continue to expect the weather to be a major player for several weeks to come. November soybeans closed out the week with a key reversal lower and wiped out the entire week’s rally. It closed 2.5 cents lower on the week at $13.49.25 per bushel. Nystrom’s notes: Contract changes for the week as of the close on July 30 (September contracts): Chicago wheat was 19.75 cents higher at $7.03.75, Kansas City led with a rally of 27.25 cents to close at $6.73.25, and Minneapolis jumped 21.25 cents to close at $9.04.75 per bushel. v
Missed dates could mean penalties JOHNSON, from pg. 19 (Social Security Administration, 2019). Age 70½ Under the SECURE Act, in most circumstances, once you reach age 72, you must begin taking required minimum distributions from a Traditional Individual Retirement Account (IRA) and other defined contribution plans. You may continue to contribute to a Traditional IRA past age 70½ under the SECURE Act as long as you meet the earned-income requirement. Understanding key birthdays may help you better prepare for certain retirement income and benefits. But perhaps more importantly, knowing key birthdays can help you avoid penalties which may be imposed if you miss the date.
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