Marketing

NYSTROM, from pg. 19

ings would be settled in renminbi.

Outlook: I would expect any upside to be very limited ahead of the Sept. 10 WASDE report with expectations for a bigger crop and larger ending stocks. Adding a new wrinkle this year to the September crop report of possible acreage adjustments may limit any upside and late rains are expected to bump up yield prospects. An acreage increase of 1 million acres or more is finding its way into private balance sheets. Any fresh negative news could push December corn to test its July low of $5.07 or its May low of $5.00.25 per bushel. Resistance would come in at technical resistance at $5.50 per bushel.

As mentioned in earlier articles, don’t forget to look at 2022. December 2022 corn has fallen along with 2021 contracts and closed at $5.01.5 for the week.

For the week, December 2021 corn dropped 29.75 cents to close at $5.24 and the March contract was 27 cents lower at $5.33.25 per bushel.

Are we headed below $5.00 per bushel in December corn? Seasonals are negative for September, the near-term export picture is unclear, and the upcoming crop report may be hard-pressed to be bullish, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. Manage your risk accordingly and as the old saying goes, “expect the best but prepare for the worst.”

SOYBEANS — In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, we saw November soybeans slip out of the teens and reach $12.70 per bushel — which is its lowest point since last June. November soybeans closed lower five consecutive sessions before finding support ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. Soybeans have attracted good demand with fresh soybean export sales announcements on three of the five trading days before the long weekend.

Weekly export sales for the old crop were 2.5 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 2.286 billion bushels. The USDA outlook is 2.26 billion bushels. China has 26 million bushels of unshipped purchases left to take. The export category on the September WASDE report may be raised slightly, but the crush may be lowered slightly. New crop export sales were huge at 78.4 million bushels, which was even more than expected after a streak of new sales announcements during the reporting period. Total

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new crop commitments are 652.1 million bushels vs. 888.7 million bushels last year.

The July NASS Soybean Crush was 166.4 million bushels, slightly higher than the 165.2 million bushel estimate. However, based on what has already been reported this year, we are likely to miss the USDA’s crush outlook by 10-15 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were lower than expected at 2.07 billion pounds compared to 2.132 billion pounds estimated.

Safras and Mercado estimates Brazilian soybean farmers have sold 25 percent of the crop they will begin planting in a few weeks. This is right on the average, but compares to nearly 50 percent sold by this date last year. They are projecting the 2021-22 Brazilian soybean crop at 142.2 million metric tons vs. the USDA’s 144 mmt forecast. Brazilian farmers can officially begin soybean planting Sept. 15. Safras also estimates farmers have sold 86 percent of last year’s soybean crop vs. 98 percent last year; leaving them with bushels to sell to fill any holes before our new crop is available.

Outlook: Good Chinese demand has provided support to soybeans despite the weekly sell-off once again. Exports originally meant to go out of the Gulf are being diverted where possible and others will be delayed.

The soybean acreage on the September WASDE report is expected to be unchanged to slightly higher and subsequently increase production numbers. With a possible negative USDA report, November soybeans next level of support is the June low at $12.40.5 per bushel, then the $12.00 level, with first technical resistance at $13.50 per bushel. The lower tendency for soybeans to decline in September isn’t as strong as in corn, but it’s still there. Timely late rains added bushels in many areas, but in some spots it was too late to help.

China has shown its hand as being a willing buyer on breaks, which may limit the downside. How the dry weather in Brazil pans out over the next few months will be watched closely. The same advice for corn holds for soybeans as well.

November soybeans dropped 31.25 cents to close at $12.92 per bushel, January lost 26 cents at $13.01.25, and November 2022 soybeans were 7.75 cents lower at $12.59.5 per bushel.

Nystrom’s notes: Contract changes for the week as of the close on Sept. 3: (December contracts) Chicago wheat down 6.25 cents at $7.26.25, Kansas City down a penny at $7.23, and Minneapolis fell 5.25 cents to $9.12.5 per bushel. v

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Open communication is key

JOHNSON, from pg. 19

Remember, whatever your relationship with your parent has been, this new phase of life will present challenges for both parties. By treating your parent with love and respect — and taking the necessary steps toward open communication — you will be able to provide the help needed during this new phase of life.

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