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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — SEPTEMBER 17/SEPTEMBER 24, 2021
USDA drops milk production estimates for 2021, 2022 This column was written for the mar17, and the most since April 20. Prices keting week ending Sept. 10. averaged $3,927, up $100 from the last event. For the third month in a row, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its Skim milk powder led the gains, up 7.3 estimate for 2021 milk production in its percent. Butter was up 3.7 percent, and latest World Agricultural Supply and anhydrous milkfat was up 3.1 percent. Demand Estimates report. USDA also Whole milk powder was up 3.3 percent lowered the 2022 estimate, citing lower and Cheddar was up 3.6 percent. dairy cow numbers and output per cow Slowing milk supplies in Europe (and MIELKE MARKET for both years. to some degree in the United States), WEEKLY 2021 production and marketings were meeting good dairy demand was GDT’s By Lee Mielke estimated at 227.8 and 226.7 billion message, according to StoneX Broker pounds respectively, down 300 milDave Kurzawski in the Sept. 13 lion pounds on production from last “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast. “Milk month’s estimates and 400 million tightness is the key underpinning lower on marketings. for all of the markets, both here in the U.S. and globally,” although it’s not a “terrible tightness.” 2022 production and marketings were estimated at 230.6 and 229.5 billion pounds respectively, down I asked about the increased costs of production 600 million pounds on production and down 700 and Class III futures not promising much in the million on marketings. way of breaking even — let alone making a profit, Butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts and he agreed. Kurzawski said that was felt more acutely this summer in Europe, but U.S. farmers for both years were raised on improving demand and lower production. Whey prices were unchanged will be feeling it in coming months. The 2022 average, which was at $17.60, would normally be considfor both years. Class III and Class IV milk price ered a good price, he concluded, but not so much forecasts were raised. now. “There are things farmers can do to protect Look for the 2021 Class III price to average themselves as we enter a bigger demand period around $16.65 per hundredweight, up a dime from with schools reopening and the holidays upon us.” last month’s projection and compares to $18.16 in n 2020 and $16.96 in 2019. The 2022 average was estimated at $16.45, up 30 cents. Back in Chicago, block cheddar closed the Labor The 2021 Class IV average was pegged at $15.55, Day holiday shortened week at $1.79 per pound, up 5.5 cents but 37.5 cents below a year ago. The barup 40 cents from a month ago and compares to rels climbed to $1.49 on Sept. 9 but finished the $13.49 in 2020 and $16.30 in 2019. The 2022 avernext day at $1.4775. Only six cars of barrel was sold age was projected to hit $16.05, up 75 cents from on the week at the CME. last month’s estimate. Midwest cheesemakers tell Dairy Market News n that good demand remains despite continued Covid In the week ending Aug. 28, 62,400 dairy cows resurgences. Pizza cheese, curds, and cut-and-wrap were sent to slaughter, up 3,400 from the previous retail varieties are moving well but “production hicweek, and 8,300 or 15.3 percent above that week a cups” are regularly reported. Employee shortages year ago. have plants working with fewer employees during a strong demand season and some do not foresee a The four-week rolling total continues to gain premium on year ago levels, says StoneX, up to 12 percent above year-ago levels this week. “This high slaughter level reiterates the theme that the dairy herd is continuing to contract.” GREENSEAM, from pg. 10 USDA data showed July milk production at 19.1 billion pounds, up 2 percent from July 2020. The lat- address the employment gap within the agriculture est Dairy Products report shows July cheese output and food companies in our region. totaled 1.15 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from “There is amazing talent in business graduates June and 3.5 percent above July 2020. Year-to-date and we in agribusiness need to find a way to conoutput stood at 7.9 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent nect with them so they can truly see the opportunifrom the same period in 2020. ties,” Ziegler said. He also noted that while business Global dairy trade strengthened this week as evi- students might feel agriculture is outside of their comfort zone, professionals in the ag industry may denced in the Global Dairy Trade auction. The weighted average jump 4 percent, following the Aug. feel the same way recruiting non-ag students. At Minnesota State Mankato, we are working to bridge 17 0.3 percent increase, and was the biggest gain since March 2. Traders brought 55.3 million pounds that comfort zone. of product to market, up from 49.7 million on Aug. “We all need to learn to be more comfortable of
MARKETING
short-term remedy, says Dairy Market News. Milk availability has begun to balance out after the initial school demand rush for bottled milk. After jumping 9 cents the previous week, butter closed at $1.7850 per pound, down 1.25 cents on the week but 30.5 cents above a year ago on 24 sales. Cream continues to tighten. Seasonal drawdowns have begun to take place due to heat and humidity. Churns were not as active over the holiday weekend but cream was available. Post-holiday, some say cream is out of their fiscal reach. Plant managers continue to report employee shortages and truck drivers are short so cream hauling issues continue. Market tones are awaiting direction. As the stronger demand season looms, some foresee strengthening prices ahead. n After 18 months of expanded unemployment benefits to millions of Americans who lost jobs during the pandemic, the increased payments expired as of Labor Day. The federal weekly supplement to state unemployment payments was $600 per week throughout summer 2020 and $300 since December 2020. HighGround Dairy says more than 11 million people are impacted by the reduction, yet “Simultaneously, there are a record 10 million job openings across the U.S. as businesses in a wide variety of sectors search desperately for workers.” “The end of expanded unemployment benefits is not expected to quickly solve the labor shortage though,” says HighGround Dairy. “In dozens of states that ended expanded benefits earlier this summer, there was not a substantial increase in job applicants in recent weeks. Many unemployed workers cite concerns about child care and the continuing pandemic in their hesitation to return to the workforce.” Lee Mielke is a syndicated columnist who resides in Everson, Wash. His weekly column is featured in newspapers across the country and he may be reached at lkmielke@juno.com. v
Biz students should be ‘comfortable’ in ag being uncomfortable,” Ziegler said. “Even though we may have to spend a bit of time teaching business graduates ag terminology, the payoff of new perspectives is there.” Talent in the GreenSeam focuses on developing talent and promoting careers in agriculture and food. Dr. Shane Bowyer is the Director of AgriBusiness and Food Innovation in the College of Business at Minnesota State University, Mankato and is on the GreenSeam Talent Committee. He can be reached for comments or talent ideas at shane.bowyer@mnsu. edu. v
