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Grain Outlook Corn market experiences mysterious boost

Financial Focus A penny saved is two pennies earned

PHYLLIS NYSTROM CHS Hedging inC. St. Paul

Cash Grain Markets corn/change* soybeans/change* St. Cloud $5.53 +.43 $12.26 +.28 Madison $5.59 +.41 $12.33 +.08 Redwood Falls $5.53 +.33 $12.36 +.38 Fergus Falls $5.58 +.44 $12.26 +.18 Morris $5.58 +.41 $12.31 +.23 Tracy $5.65 +.46 $12.35 +.37 Average: $5.58 $12.31 Year Ago Average: $3.59 $10.02

Grain prices are effective cash close on Nov. 2. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. See JOHNSON, pg. 20

MARISSA JOHNSON Profinium Wealth Management Advisor

The following marketing Agriculture. China has pur- The famous saying from Poor Install a programmable analysis is for the week end- chased 468.5 million bushels Richard’s Almanack is thermostat to automatically ing Oct. 29. so far this year, but only 47.2 frequently misquoted. It was lower the heat or air condiCORN — Some weeks you just want to throw up your hands and say, “why now?” This was one of those weeks. Corn staged an impressive rally this week with the December contract slicing through the 100-day Moving Average technical resistance and closing above it for the first time since mid-August. There was not a singular headline anyone could point to for the jump higher at midweek; but inflation fears, managed money buying the market, and a strong ethanol market with rumors of the possibility of higher ethanol exports were all cited as factors for double digit gains. Growers took advantage of the better prices to sell overrun bushels plus a few more, but basis levels were able to absorb the selling. Processors don’t want to miss any available bushels and basis has been very firm for this time of year. A volatile U.S. dollar made for some interesting watching; but it felt like corn was somewhat divorced from the dollar this week. Weekly ethanol production was the second-highest weekly total ever — million bushels since May. Argentina has rain in the forecast for the first week of November. It’s estimated they have 28 percent of their corn planted vs. 36 percent on average. The U.S. attaché in Argentina raised their production outlook to 54.5 million metric tons compared to the USDA’s 53 mmt estimate. Brazil’s first corn planting was 64 percent complete vs. 57 percent on average as of Oct. 26. Argentina will need to continue to receive timely rainfall while Brazil’s crop is going in favorable conditions. Outlook: Corn has found legs and moved up its trading range to $5.30 to $5.80 per bushel. The Nov. 9 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report will provide further insight into whether this new level is warranted. Rain has delayed harvest progress around the Corn Belt, but bin doors are slamming shut and it will take some persuasion to entice bushels back out. We saw one daily export sales announcepublished by founder Benjamin Franklin in 1737: “A penny saved is two pence clear.” Finding ways to manage expenses is one of the cornerstones of a sound financial strategy. (The Franklin Institute, 2020) Here are some simple and inexpensive energy-saving tips that may help you save money. Audit first.. To better understand where opportunities may exist for improving energy efficiency, consider an energy audit. Perform one yourself by purchasing a home energy monitor, which tracks your energy use and a handheld air leak detector to identify windows, doors and other areas of the home that are drafty. Also, your local power utility may offer in-home energy audits or related services that can help identify remediation opportunities. ..Then act Consider these do-it-yourself ideas that may offer immediate savings at very little cost: tioning because (let’s face it) you forget to do it. Devices which offer “instant on,” or continuous display (e.g., TV, cable box and recharger) use energy non-stop. Consider a power strip to reduce their electrical use by shutting off the power strip at bedtime. Plug up the air leaks in your home through weather stripping or caulking; install door sweeps to block drafts. Close the fireplace damper when not in use. Be sure to have your heating system serviced to ensure maximum efficiency. Install a water heater blanket and turn it down to 120 degrees. Not only is a higher temperature wasteful, but a lower temperature is a safety precaution for younger children. Lower it to a minimum temperature when you leave for vacation. For many, the cost of running their automobile(s) can be higher than their home. Here are ways to save: tune up your car; check your tires for proper inflation; and eliminate weight — empty that trunk! As always, drive sensibly by eliminating excessive increasing 10,000 barrels per day to idling, aggressive driving and observ1.106 million bpd. The production ing the speed limit. record was set in December 2017 at 1.108 million bpd. Ethanol stocks fell 155,000 barrels to 19.925 million barrels. Margins were excellent at 86 cents per gallon. Gasoline demand over the last four weeks averaged 9.6 percent higher than last year. Securities and insurance products are offered through Cetera Investment Services LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFG STC Insurance Agency LLC), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Cetera Investment Advisers LLC. Neither firm

Weekly export sales were near the is affiliated with the financial institubottom of expectations at 35.1 million tion where investment services are bushels. We had a fresh export sales offered. Advisory services are only announcement of 11 million bushels of offered by Investment Adviser corn to Mexico. Total corn commit- Representatives. ments are down 2.6 percent from last year at 1.173 billion bushels; but yearon-year exports are forecasted to down Investments are: *Not FDIC/NCUSIF insured *May lose value *Not financial 11.2 percent by the U.S. Department of

See NYSTROM, pg. 20

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NYSTROM, from pg. 19

ment to Mexico this week, but it was considered routine business.

Ethanol margins are fabulous which is supportive for domestic demand prospects and this usage line may be expected to increase on the WASDE report. A limiting factor is the possibility we see a bigger carryout number on the WASDE report if ethanol usage isn’t raised or exports are reduced.

The money guys are long, but nowhere near where they have been in the past. Traders continue to hypothesize how soaring fertilizer prices and possibly tight availability will affect 2022 corn and soybean acres. It’s a concern, but I think many growers are waiting to see how prices play out before making firm decisions. We can expect choppiness as we head into the holiday season; but the outlook, for now, is the new higher trading range.

For the week, December corn rallied 30.25 cents to close at $5.68.25, March followed with a 29.5 cent gain at $5.76.25, and December 2022 was 17 cents higher at $5.50 per bushel. December 2022 hit a new contract high at $5.53.25 per bushel.

On Nov. 1 new daily trading limits go into effect: corn falls from 40 cents to 35 cents per bushel, soybeans decline from $1.00 to 90 cents per bushel, Minneapolis wheat stays at 60 cents per bushel, and Chicago and Kansas City wheat increase from 45 cents to 50 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS – Soybeans tagged along for the ride higher this week, despite soyoil losing upside momentum which had driven recent upticks. World vegetable oil markets were generally higher, but soyoil was lower on the week. Palm oil and canola hit new contract highs during the week.

We saw fresh daily soybean export sales early and late in the week with 7.3 million bushels sold to China, 4.6 million sold to Mexico, and 13 million bushels announced to unknown destinations.

As in corn, soybean crush margins are terrific; but there were heavy deliveries against the November soybean contract on the last day of the month in areas that weren’t effectively tributary to processors. Soybean carries widened as a result.

Weekly export sales were lower than expected at 43.5 million bushels. Will U.S. soybean exports decline on the November WASDE report and increase the carryout? Export commitments are 1.12 billion bushels as of Oct. 21 or 54 percent of the USDA’s 2.09 billion bushel export projection. Last year by this date we had sold 78 percent of the USDA export forecast. Total commitments are running 35 percent behind last year when the USDA is projecting a 7.7 percent decline in year-to-year exports. Soybean sales to non-Chinese destinations are 529.1 million bushels vs. 768 million bushels by this date last year.

Brazil’s soybean planting was 36 percent planted as of Oct. 26 vs. 27 percent on average. Argentina’s soybean planting is just beginning. As of Oct. 28 it was estimated 4.6 percent of their soybeans were planted vs. nothing last year.

Outlook: Soybeans traded in consolidation fashion this week as it was caught between a strong corn market, global vegoil action, and a higher U.S. dollar. January soybeans may have found a range from $12.00 to $12.75 as we head into the Nov. 9 WASDE report. Soybean balance sheet estimates will be out next week, and the yield may be slightly raised, exports possibly lowered, and carryout increased. Managed money has a small long position awaiting further direction.

For the week, January soybeans rallied 18.75 cents to settle at $12.49.5, March was 19.25 cents higher at $12.59, and November 2022 gained 16.75 cents to $12.40.5 per bushel. Seasonally soybeans trend lower from early November into the last half of the month.

Nystrom’s notes: Contract changes for the week ended Oct. 29 (December contract): Chicago wheat was 16.75 cents higher at $7.72.75, Kansas City was 11.75 cents higher at $7.85.75, and Minneapolis was the star with a 39.25 cent jump to $10.52.25 per bushel. v

JOHNSON, from pg. 19

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The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a

topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SECregistered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2021 FMG Suite. To learn more about how Profinium is a full financial health solutions center offering banking, mortgage, insurance, trust and wealth planning services in Southern Minnesota, visit Profinium.com. v 2022 EQIP signup deadline is Nov. 19

Applications for the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) or the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP) are due Nov. 19 for the first cutoff of funding in 2022. Applications are being taken at all USDA Service Centers in Minnesota.

EQIP is the primary program available to farmers and landowners for farm, ranch, and woodland conservation work, offering payments for more than 100 conservation practices.

Farmers who are interested in practices that may require permits, such as manure storage or streambank restoration, to begin planning and seeking permits as soon as possible.

For more information, visit www.mn.nrcs.usda.gov

This article was submitted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. v

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Land rent meeting held on Nov. 16

FOLEY, Minn. — Landlords, farmers, and agribusiness professionals are invited to attend a free land rent meetings being offered by University of Minnesota Extension.

The meeting will be held Nov. 16 in Melrose from 1 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the True North MarketplaceCornerstone Café.

Topics covered will include local historic and projected farmland rental rate trends, current farmland values and sales, and a worksheet that will help determine a fair rental agreement. Input costs for 2021 will be presented along with current 2021 corn and soybean prices.

Register by going to z.umn.edu/CMNLandRent or by contacting Nathan Drewitz at (608) 515-4414 or ndrewitz@umn.edu.

This article was submitted by Nathan Drewitz, University of Minnesota Extension. v