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www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
THE LAND — NOVEMBER 12/NOVEMBER 19, 2021
USDA report estimates more milk but fewer cows in 2022 This column was written for the marago, and compares to $13.49 in 2020 and keting week ending Nov. 12. $16.30 in 2019. The 2022 average is projected at $18.70, up $1.55 from last The U.S. Department of Agriculture month’s estimate. The 2022 cheese, butter, lowered its estimate for 2021 and 2022 nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts milk production in the latest World were raised on strength in demand and Agricultural Supply and Demand lower expected milk supplies. Estimates report for the fifth month in a row, citing lower expected dairy cow Reviewing the WASDE and USDA’s numbers and slower growth in milk per Crop Production reports, the U.S. corn MIELKE MARKET cow. outlook is for greater production, WEEKLY increased corn used for ethanol, and mar2021 production and marketings were By Lee Mielke ginally lower ending stocks. Corn producestimated at 226.4 and 225.3 billion tion was forecast at 15.062 billion pounds respectively, down 600 milbushels. This is up 43 million from lion pounds on production from last last month on a 0.5 bushel increase in month’s estimates and 700 million yield, to a record 177 bushels per lower on marketings. If realized, acre, and up 5.6 bushels or 7 percent from 2020. 2021 production would still be up 3.2 billion pounds Corn used for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels. or 1.4 percent from 2020. Area harvested for grain was forecast at 85.1 mil2022 production and marketings were estimated lion acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but at 228.1 and 227 billion pounds respectively, down up 3 percent from 2020. With use rising slightly 1.6 billion pounds on both production and marketmore than supply, corn ending stocks were lowered ings. If realized, 2022 production would be up 1.7 7 million bushels. The season-average corn price billion pounds or 0.8 percent from 2021. was unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Butter, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts The soybean outlook is for lower production and were raised from last month on strength in demand exports and higher ending stocks. Soybean producand lower expected production. The cheese price forecast was reduced on current prices and continued large supplies. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast was NYSTROM, from pg. 8 reduced as the lower forecast cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price. The 2021 averbehind last year at 1.223 billion in cumulative sales. age is now projected at $16.95, down a dime from We need to sell 19.5 million bushels per week to last month’s estimate, and compares to $18.16 in achieve the USDA projection of 2.05 billion bushels 2020 and $16.96 in 2019. The 2022 average is of exports. Weekly export inspections were above the pegged at $17.75, up 65 cents from last month’s highest estimate at 2,647,000 metric tons. However, estimate. cumulative inspections are down 31 percent from last year by this date. The 2021 Class IV price forecast was raised on higher nonfat dry milk and butter prices. It is China imported just 5.1 mmt of soybeans in expected to hit $16.00, up 30 cents from a month October, the lowest monthly total since March 2020 and down 41.2 percent from last October. From January through October, they have imported 79.1 mmt of soybeans — down 5 percent from the same time frame a year ago. AgRural estimates Brazil had planted 67 percent of their soybean crop as of Nov. 4 and 75 percent of their EARLY DEADLINE first corn crop. Weather in Brazil has been favorable for planting and early development. The weather in Deadline for Dec. 24, 2021issue Argentina has been good enough to get the crops is Tues., Dec. 14th at noon. planted, but with La Niña conditions in place through January, they will need timely rainfall. As of Nov. 8, Deadline for Dec. 31, 2021issue Argentina’s soybean planting was 1 percent ahead of is Tues., Dec. 21st at noon. average at 19 percent complete as of Nov. 11. Conab increased their Brazilian soybean crop by 1.2 mmt to 142 mmt. Safras and Mercado expects Brazil’s soybean harvest to begin in the first half of January vs. Deadline for Jan. 7, 2022 issue last year when it took until mid-February for their is Tues., Dec. 28th at noon. soybean harvest to reach 10 percent complete. Due to the Holidays, THE LAND office will be closed Outlook: Keep an eye on how the crop develops in on Friday, Dec. 24th and Monday, Jan. 3rd, 2022. South America. Conditions have been favorable in
MARKETING
tion was forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million or 1 percent on lower yields, but up 5 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 51.2 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from the previous forecast, but up 0.2 bushels from 2020, and the second-largest on record. Area harvested was forecast at 86.4 million acres, unchanged from the last forecast but up 5 percent from a year ago. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas account for most of the change in production, according to the WASDE. Exports were reduced by 40 million bushels, reflecting reduced global imports and lower-than-expected shipments through October. With use falling more than supply, soybean ending stocks were raised 20 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $12.10 per bushel, down 25 cents. Cotton was forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 25 percent from 2020. Yields are expected to average 880 pounds per acre, up nine pounds from the previous forecast and up 33 pounds from 2020. n See MIELKE, pg. 13
Soybeans should remain in $12 range
THE LAND Christmas & New Year
Brazil, but Argentina will need to continue to receive timely rains to avoid further crop reductions. Adding to Argentina’s soybean issues is higher export taxes — possibly pushing some growers to corn. I don’t think many would be surprised to see the U.S. soybean yield regain this month’s loss on the December report and for exports to be lowered. The trade will be looking for nearby export business for support, and we did see a couple of export sales announcements this week. January soybeans made a run toward the $12.50 per bushel at the end of the week. That is an area where they were very comfortable ahead of the November WASDE report. The meal market is reclaiming its perch as a product leader and will demand additional attention. We may be starting to enter the holiday mode and a return to prior trading ranges with $12.00 as support and $12.75 to $13.00 as resistance. For the week, January soybeans rallied 38.75 cents to close at $12.44.25, March was 38.75 cents higher at $12.56.25, and November was up 29.75 cents at $12.40.25 per bushel. Nystrom’s notes: Contract changes for the week ended Nov. 12 (December contract): Chicago wheat soared 50.5 cents to $8.17, Kansas City rallied 54.25 cents to $8.33, and Minneapolis jumped 40.5 cents to $10.50 per bushel. New contract high in Chicago December at $8.26.75 and Kansas City December at $8.43.5 per bushel. v
