THE LAND — DECEMBER 10/DECEMBER 17, 2021
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
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MARKETING
Grain Outlook
Corn market awaiting some news to move The following marketing analysis is for the week ending Dec. 3. CORN — Corn got off to a rough start as the market continued to digest the possible implications of the Omicron deviant discovered just after Thanksgiving. Heavy fund liquidation was seen on both Nov. 29 and 30. This week’s low at $5.62.5 was the lowest March corn has traded since Nov. 9. Fresh news specific to corn was thin without any export sales announcements and with the beginning of a new month. Funds sold an estimated 25,000 corn contracts early in the week, but bought back approximately 12,000 during the first three PHYLLIS NYSTROM days of December. March corn is CHS Hedging Inc. back within the $5.70 to $5.95 St. Paul range it had been trading for the
Cash Grain Markets corn/change* soybeans/change*
Stewartville Edgerton Jackson Hope Cannon Falls Sleepy Eye Average:
$5.55 +.15 $5.76 +.04 $5.74 +.07 $5.63 +.12 $5.54 +.12 $5.73 +.11
$5.66
$12.15 -.05 $12.05 -.39 $12.20 -.25 $12.12 -.18 $12.06 -.23 $12.25 -.14
$12.14
Year Ago Average: $3.85 $9.09 Grain prices are effective cash close on Dec. 7. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service October Grain Crush report for corn used for ethanol was 469.3 million bushels, just shy of the 2017 record of 470.1 million bushels. Weekly ethanol production was down 44,000 barrels per day to a seven-week low of 1.035 million bpd. This remains above the needed pace to hit the USDA’s 5.25 billion bushel corn for ethanol forecast. Ethanol stocks were 137,000 barrels higher at 20.3 million barrels and the highest in 12 weeks. Lower production and higher stocks are not unusual for this time of year. Gasoline demand fell 538,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. Ethanol crush margins fell 29 cents but remain at a spiffy $1.31 per gallon. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its Argentine corn acreage for this year to 18 million acres from 17.5 million acres. The USDA is using 16.8 million acres. However, they left production unchanged at 55 million metric tons compared to the USDA at 54.5 mmt. While La Niña concerns linger in the background, the BAGE rates their corn crop at 90 percent good/excellent. The corn crop is 31 percent planted. A well-respected private consultancy expects Argentina to produce 54.5 mmt of corn this year and Brazil’s corn crop to increase to 121 mmt. Agroconsult put Brazil’s corn crop at a record 124 mmt. The USDA has Brazil’s corn crop at 118 mmt. Scott Irwin, an economist from the University of
last three weeks. Weekly export sales were within expectations at 40.2 million bushels and the third-lowest in the last nine weeks. Total export commitments stand at 1.394 billion bushels, running 7 percent behind last year. We will need weekly sales to average 27.1 million bushels to hit the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2.5 billion bushel export target. Canada was the second-largest buyer this week and they continue to provide a good market for U.S. corn this year. The only new export sale announcement this week was See NYSTROM, pg. 11 5.9 million bushels to Columbia.
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