23 minute read
Marketing
Grain Outlook WASDE report adds little fuel to market
The following marketing analysis is for the week ending Dec. 10. CORN — Now that the yawner of a December World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report for corn is behind us, we’ll focus our main attention back on weather in South America and world events.
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March corn matched the most recent highest closing price of $5.91.75 in post-report trading since Nov. 26. The next highest settlement was back on July 1 at $5.95 per bushel. This week’s high in March corn was $5.94 per bushel, just missing the most recent high from Nov. 24 at $5.96.75 per bushel. PHYLLIS NYSTROM
First, we’ll take a look at the CHS Hedging inC. benign report. The U.S. St. Paul Department of Agriculture did not change a thing on the December U.S. balance sheet for the third year in a row. The ending stocks number remained at 1.493 billion bushels when the trade was expecting 1.487 billion bushels. Many were expecting a higher ethanol usage number and will be looking for it on the Jan. 12 report. World ending stocks were slightly higher at 305.5 million metric tons vs. 304.5 mmt expected and 304.4 mmt previously. Ukraine’s corn crop was increased 2 mmt to a record 40 mmt with exports raised 1 mmt. China’s corn import outlook was unchanged at 26 mmt. Despite corn running to Canada this year, Canada’s corn imports were unchanged at 3 mmt.
Rumors abounded this week of China buying a big chunk of Ukrainian corn; but of course, there’s no confirmation. China is miffed at the United States for their announcement that no diplomats will attend the February 2022 Olympics in Beijing. Both U.S. and Ukrainian corn are competitive into China. China’s state statistical bureau estimated their corn production was up 4.6 percent this year at 272.6 mmt. The USDA lowered its number this month from 273 mmt to 272.6 mmt.
Weekly export sales were as expected at 44.6 million bushels. This year’s sales are running 8 percent behind last year when the USDA’s 2.5 billion bushel export forecast is 9.2 percent lower than last year. Total commitments are 1.44 billion bushels vs. 1.56 billion last year. We need to average 26.7 million bushels of weekly sales to hit the USDA’s projection.
Cash Grain Markets
corn/change* soybeans/change*
St. Cloud $5.76 +.29 $12.30 +.48 Madison $5.74 +.21 $12.40 +.48 Redwood Falls $5.81 +.23 $12.40 +.43 Fergus Falls $5.75 +.23 $12.35 +.48 Morris $5.75 +.23 $12.44 +.52 Tracy $5.80 +.28 $12.28 +.44 Average: $5.77 $12.36 Year Ago Average: $3.81 $10.98
Grain prices are effective cash close on Dec. 14. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.
A fresh sale to Mexico this week totaling 72.6 million bushels (42.9 million for old crop and 29.7 million for new crop) was the first largest one-day sale in history to any country and the market took it in stride.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed biofuel mandates were released this week. The ethanol industry in the end may be disappointed with lower 2020 and 2021 mandates, but was satisfied that 2022 levels were returned to the pre-Covid level of 15 billion gallons. The 2020 conventional ethanol blending mandate is 12.5 billion gallons, 2021 is 13.3 billion, and 2022 is 15 billion gallons. The previous 2020 and 2021 levels were 15 billion gallons. The United States blended approximately 12.6 billion gallons in 2020 and 13.8 billion in 2021. The proposed levels are open for public comment until Feb. 4. There was trade talk that the $700 million in subsidies will be allocated to biofuel producers at 4.5 cents per gallon produced for both 2020 and 2021.
Weekly ethanol production was up 55,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd. This was higher than expected, the highest in seven weeks, and the fourthlargest of the marketing year. Ethanol stocks rose 163,000 barrels to 20.46 million barrels. Stocks tend to rise now through February. Ethanol margins slid 24 cents lower for the week, but are still a healthy $1.07 per gallon. Gasoline demand over the past four weeks is averaging 13.7 percent above last year with this week’s demand at 8.9 million bpd.
As far as how Argentina’s corn is looking, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated 85 percent of the crop as good to excellent this week. Corn planting is 39 percent complete vs. 50 percent on average. The USDA left Argentina’s corn estimate alone at 54.5 mmt. For Brazil, the USDA stayed at 118 mmt while Conab’s updated forecast increased from 116.7 mmt to 117.2 mmt. Outlook: Attention will focus on good U.S. corn demand for ethanol, but disappointing interest in exports, and how South American crops develop. Look for the markets to stay choppy with holiday mode upon us and the next WASDE report on Jan. 12.
Don’t forget about next year’s corn. Since 2007, in the years when the stocks-to-use ratio is 10 percent or higher, the average farm price was $4.50 per bushel or lower. In the years when the ratio is 10 percent or lower, the average farm price was $5.00 or higher. This year’s ratio is sitting at 10.1 percent with an average farm price projected at $5.45 per bushel.
For the week, March corn was 6 cents higher at $5.90, July was 6.5 cents higher at $5.91, and the December contract fell 1.25 cents to close at $5.51 per bushel. SOYBEANS — The U.S. soybean balance sheet was totally unchanged on the December WASDE report. This was a slight surprise since the ending stocks remained at 340 million bushels when the trade was expecting an increase to 352 million bushels through lower exports. World ending stocks fell to 102 mmt from 103.8 mmt last month and 104.1 mmt estimated. China’s soybean crop was cut 2.6 mmt to 16.4 mmt from 19.0 mmt or a 15 percent drop. China’s soybean imports were steady at 100 mmt.
Fresh export sales announcements continued into this week with only Friday missing a new sale. The weekly export sales report showed sales at the high end of expectations at 60.2 million bushels and the highest in seven weeks. Total commitments at 1.4 billion bushels are down 27 percent from last year. We need to average 16.3 million bushels of sales per week to achieve the USDA forecast for 2.05 billion bushels of exports.
In Argentina, the soybean crop was rated 75 percent good/excellent by the BAGE. The rain that Argentina has received has been useful but hasn’t replenished the subsoil. If La Niña persists, which it is expected to do, any prolonged period of hot and dry conditions will likely negatively impact crop prospects. This is a wait-and-see game for the next 60 days at least. The USDA left its estimate unchanged at 144 mmt for Brazil and 49.5 mmt for Argentina on the latest update. Conab on the same day raised their Brazilian outlook from 142 mmt to 142.8 mmt.
The EPA this week finally released the proposed blending mandates for 2020, 2021 and 2022. The EPA also decided to deny 65 small refinery exemptions from the Renewable Fuel Standards mandate, although they could appeal. Outlook: We could be in for more choppy trading until the South American crop size is better defined in the coming weeks. No one is lowering their production estimates although some have a neutral to
See NYSTROM, pg. 11
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DS-3022AM™ Red River Central - Full (Summary) 1 of 32 214.3 194.1 20.2 DS-3022AM™ Red River Central - Full (East Grand Forks, MN) 1 of 32 229.5 203.9 25.6 DS-3727AM™ Minnesota West Central - Early (Summary) 1 of 48 234.4 218.5 15.9 DS-3727AM™ Minnesota West Central - Early (Brooten, MN) 1 of 48 286.6 244.5 42.1 DS-3550AM™ Minnesota East Central - All (Taylors Falls, MN) 1 of 43 223.4 188.0 35.4 DS-3550AM™ Minnesota South - Ultra Early (Nerstrand, MN) 1 of 35 258.9 236.1 22.8 DS-2828AM™ Red River South - Early (Wendell, MN) 2 of 37 236.6 213.9 22.7 DS-3727AM™ Minnesota West Central - Early (Clinton, MN) 2 of 48 244.6 221.4 23.2 DS-4018AM™ Minnesota West Central - Full (Lester Prairie, MN) 2 of 46 228.0 200.5 27.5 DS-3193AM™ Minnesota East Central - All (Milaca, MN) 2 of 43 180.7 161.7 19.0 DS-3959Q™ Minnesota Southwest - Early (Mankato, MN) 2 of 72 244.5 204.3 40.2 DS-3959Q™ Minnesota Southeast - Early (Cannon Falls, MN) 2 of 72 277.6 246.2 31.4 DS-3022AM™ Red River Central - Full (Buffalo, ND) 3 of 32 228.1 209.5 18.6 DS-3022AM™ Red River Central - Full (Warren, MN) 3 of 32 179.3 163.6 15.7 DS-3366AM™ Red River South - Full (Doran, MN) 3 of 40 248.0 229.2 18.8 DS-4000AMXT™ Minnesota West Central - Full (Lester Prairie, MN) 3 of 46 221.1 200.5 20.6 DS-4510Q™ Minnesota Southeast - Full (Kasson, MN) 3 of 58 290.7 259.2 31.5 DS-3022AM™ Red River Central - Full (Georgetown, MN) 4 of 32 220.3 198.9 21.4 DS-3162Q™ Minnesota East Central - All (Summary) 4 of 43 191.6 179.8 11.8 DS-3162Q™ Minnesota East Central - All (Taylors Falls, MN) 4 of 43 210.9 188.0 22.9 DS-3959Q™ Minnesota Southeast - Early (Summary) 4 of 72 244.2 229.4 14.8 DS-3727AM™ Minnesota Southeast - Early (Cannon Falls, MN) 4 of 72 275.4 246.2 29.2 DS-4310AM™ Minnesota Southeast - Full (Dexter, MN) 4 of 58 253.7 230.8 22.9 DS-2828AM™ Red River Central - Full (East Grand Forks, MN) 5 of 32 220.0 203.9 16.1 DS-3550AM™ Minnesota East Central - All (Summary) 5 of 43 191.2 179.8 11.4 DS-3550AM™ Minnesota East Central - All (Royalton, MN) 5 of 43 254.3 238.4 15.9 DS-3727AM™ Minnesota Southeast - Early (Nerstrand, MN) 5 of 72 261.6 232.8 28.8
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By KRISTIN KVENO braved the elements to get a tree. Weather can The Land Staff Writer make or break both growing and sale seasons. NEW ULM, Minn. — Americans really like Besides weather, pests can be a problem as their Christmas trees. According to the National well. “Spider mites and aphids can attack trees,” Christmas Tree Association, 25 to 30 million Guggisberg said. The spider mites may turn the real Christmas trees are sold in the United trees to an off-color. Guggisberg sprays for pests States each year. Over 500 of those trees were as needed. In addition, pocket gophers will eat sold the weekend after Thanksgiving at the the roots of young trees, so Guggisberg is always Guggisberg Tree Farm near New Ulm, Minn. on the lookout for those pesky varmints.
Owner Tony Guggisberg started planting trees In the summer, there’s plenty of weeding to do in 1994 on former corn and soybean ground. around the trees. Guggisberg and his wife Marie With a degree in horticulture and a keen inter- have six children, many of whom help at the tree est in Christmas trees, Guggisberg is enthusias- farm. tic about growing trees. Every spring Guggisberg and his children
In 2006 the Guggisberg Tree Farm opened for plant between 1,000 to 1,200 trees. They can customers to cut down their own trees. The farm hand plant 300 to 400 trees in a day. The trees sells seven varieties of trees: scotch pine, blue are around 12 inches high when planted in the spruce, Black Hills spruce, white pine, Canaan ground. fir, Fraser fir and balsam fir. Every type of tree sold at the farm has its unique qualities. “Balsam fir probably smells the best.” Guggisberg is growing a few hybrids, combining the finest of both varieties, like the balsam/Fraser hybrid which smells good and offers strong needle retention. A tree that won’t shed needles is high on most cusOnce a tree is three years old it will need to be trimmed. Trimming is a vital task at the tree farm. Without it, the trees would not have that desirable Christmas tree shape. Guggisberg uses a machete to give the trees a nice shape. He can trim 50 trees in an hour. tomers’ tree wish lists. Once the tree is taken In addition to planting trees every spring, home Guggisberg suggests keeping it away from Guggisberg has the task of digging out the heat and keeping it well watered to ensure it stumps of trees which have been cut. It’s been a looks good throughout the holiday season. mild fall which has allowed Guggisberg to get a Visitors to the Guggisberg Tree Farm take a walk from the sale shed out to the tree groves where they the growing season. These were young trees and saplings. The rest of the trees exhibited stress due to the start on stump removal. He uses the skid loader to dig out the stumps. have the opportunity to cut down their tree. If cut- lack of rain. “They put on very little growth this Most of the trees sold at the farm are between ting down a tree isn’t your thing, Guggisberg also year.” Losing hundreds of trees in a year is unusual seven and nine feet tall, though they do sell some sells his trees at River Creek Nursery in New Ulm. for Guggisberg. “On a good year, I probably lose five that are up to 20 feet high. Customers pay by size, Tree farming isn’t easy. Mother Nature can provide many obstacles in the growing and selling season. A to 10 trees.” A blizzard during the second weekend of selling height and quality of the tree. “We usually have a tree for everybody.” few years ago, wet growing conditions resulted in the trees one year resulted in a single customer who See TREES, pg. 11 death of a couple of hundred trees on the farm due to root rot. This year, Guggisberg reported that 300 to 400 trees died as a result of the lack of rain during
Photos by Kristin Kveno Tony Guggisberg looks over a stand of trees which will be ready for cutting for Christmas 2022.
Mentorship for women in agri-food
THE LAND Christmas & New Year
EARLY DEADLINE
Deadline for Dec. 24, 2021issue is Tues., Dec. 14th at noon.
Deadline for Dec. 31, 2021issue is Tues., Dec. 21st at noon. NICHOLASVILLE, Ky. — Guided by feedback from the latest Women in Food and Agriculture survey, Alltech is partnering with WFA to connect women from across the agri-food sector with mentors to champion their professional success. The Women in Food and Agriculture Mentorship Program will facilitate meaningful conversations and professional development while also providing a valuable networking experience.
“Growing up in the family business, every day was a lesson in leadership,” said Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech. “Mentors, including my father (Alltech founder Dr. Pearse Lyons), were an invaluable resource in challenging and championing my personal and professional development. Although the power of mentorship is evident, and even as the future of farm and food becomes more inclusive, nearly 70 percent of women working in agriculture around the world are reporting a lack of access to mentors. Through this unique agri-food mentorship program, women will have the opportunity to cultivate industry connections that will empower their success.”
The application process to join the WFA Mentorship Program is open to mentors and mentees through Jan. 31, 2022. Prospective participants can indicate their preferences, such as language, ag sector and regional location. As male champions are an asset in promoting gender equality, men are invited to apply to be mentors as well.
Following the application phase, organizers will match mentorship pairs, who will meet virtually for one hour each month starting in March. With Alltech’s support, the program is free.
For more information on the program, visit https:// www.wfasummit.com/wfa-mentorship-program/
This article was submitted by Alltech. v
TREES, from pg. 10
“The market for real trees the last couple of years has gone up,” Guggisberg said. The weekend after Thanksgiving this year, the farm had more than 1,000 people come to cut down their perfect tree.
The surge in popularity of fresh trees has been wonderful for Guggisberg. However, it takes up to 10 years for a tree to grow to the height fit to be cut. Guggisberg tries to figure out the trends, but it was impossible to predict a pandemic was on the horizon when he planted trees a decade ago. “Last year was the first time we had to close early.” Selling out the trees so quickly was a pleasant surprise for Guggisberg. It was an ideal outside family activity. Getting a fresh tree became a popular thing to do. This year was another stellar sales season for Guggisberg.
The farm has saws for customers to use. For safety reasons, chainsaws are not allowed. Once the tree is cut, employees put the tree in the shaker which rids the tree of loose needles and loads it onto the car.
“We basically don’t have to advertise anymore.” Guggisberg’s wife Marie and daughter, Rachel, manage
With a 10-year growing window, weather and pests can have a lasting effect on Guggisberg’s trees. These trees have a few years to go before they’re ready to sell.
the farm’s social media pages and those posts bring in the crowds. This year that resulted in selling out of the Christmas trees at the farm in just a few days.
Why cut your tree? Guggisberg believes his customers like to cut their own tree, knowing that it’s fresh. After Christmas, many people put the tree outside for their feathered friends. “It’s one of those great renewable resources. A lot of people set them out for the birds.”
Just as any farmer would tell you, weather can be a challenge, and tree farming is no exception. Losing trees in drought or wet years can be frustrating, as is battling gophers and other critters chewing up young trees.
The best part of owning and operating a tree farm for Guggisberg is the customers. He›s grateful the tree farm is part of a holiday tradition for many who come from near and far to pick out their trees. “Seeing all the families have a good time. We’ve met so many great people.”
Visit Guggisberg Tree Farm at https://www.guggisbergtreefarm.com/trees.html. v
Soybean market is watching South America
Large companies bypassing meatpackers
GUEBERT, from pg. 3
alleged interaction between (one) KFC” official who told a poultry company’s “executives that ‘he was going to beat us down with a hammer and baseball bat’ as payback for three years of high chicken prices.”
Hammers and bats aside, end users like KFC, Costco, and Walmart — unlike hog farmers, ranchers, and poultry growers — increasingly have alternatives to giant meatpackers: they are establishing captive supply chains to provide their own customers with their own products.
And, sure, farmers and ranchers will still be part of those new chains; but they’ll still be “chained” to the same, now decades-old flow of market power: upward toward the retailer, not backwards toward the farmer and rancher.
But it may take time for Tyson, historically a chicken company, to get used to the ages-old farm idea that what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
The Farm and Food File is published weekly through the United States and Canada. Past columns, events and contact information are posted at www.farmandfoodfile.com. v
NYSTROM, from pg. 9
lower bias. Mother Nature will enjoy her time in the spotlight as traders focus on her every move. The markets may also be reluctant to trade lower than the recent range with tensions high between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and China, inflation fears, and uncertainty about further Covid-related issues.
For the week, January soybeans managed just a half-cent increase at $12.67.75, July gained 4 cents to $12.88, and November rallied 14.75 cents to $12.48.75 per bushel.
Weekly price changes in March wheat: Chicago down 18.5 cents at $7.85.25, Kansas City lost 18.75 cents at $8.05.5, and Minneapolis gained a penny at $10.21.75 per bushel. v
By RENAE B. VANDER SCHAAF
The Land Correspondent LE MARS, Iowa — Big city lights may be attractive to some young farm boys, but for Rob Scheitler of Le Mars, Iowa it was the Christmas lights that enthused him. His parents annually took several drives to see the displays in area towns.
By age 12 he was already decorating their farmstead with lights on the fences, trees and buildings.
“Then my dad joined in the action,” said Scheitler. “He put lights on the tractors and farm implements. These were the type of lights that made the machinery look as though it was running.”
Photos by Renae B. Vander Schaaf When it gets close to 5 p.m. the Christmas decoration enthusiasts start driving in to the Scheitler family farm. Scheitler have full time jobs, so the work is done after hours and on days off. The help from volunteers is very much appreciated.
“Every things is labeled, cleaned up and stored,” said Scheitler. “Every year it goes back to the same place outside.”
The LED lights are on from 5 to 10 p.m. each evening, weather permitting. When Christmas Light devotees began handing the Scheitlers money, they felt a bit uncomfortable.
“My wife said this isn’t why we do this,” said Scheitler. “She said we were going to find a charity.”
So they did. All the donations go to the Christian Needs Center in Le Mars — a charity which provides food, clothing
Shaunna, Joyce and Rob Scheitler (left to right) started their Christmas chaos 25 years ago.
Twenty-five years ago, Scheitler and his wife, Joyce, built their new home just north of the family farm. That first year they began their own Christmas display.
“It was easy to decorate the trees then,” laughs Scheitler. “They were just small ones. Now it is a quite a task.”
But that doesn’t seem to deter the Scheitler family which now includes daughter Shaunna (a student at the University of Northern Iowa) from undertaking this immense decorating job each year. It may well be the largest the outdoor country display in the state of Iowa, certainly in the area.
This isn’t just a drive-by display. Well-lit walking paths bring visitors up close to the lights and decorations.
The work begins in August with decorating the trees and bushes. Scheitler does his last mowing Oct. 1, at which time he begins laying wires and setting out decorations. The items in the fields go out once the crops have been harvested.
Take-down begins in January, weather permitting. Both Rob and Joyce
A nativity scene sets by the bake shop door. and other items to people in need.
“Last year, we donated $41,000,” said Scheitler. “The Center was able to pay off unpaid lunch balances of students in Plymouth County. They also bought winter clothing for those that were without.”
This Christmas train brings good cheer.
See CHRISTMAS ACRES, pg. 13
Walking paths meander through the lights.
CHRISTMAS ACRES, from pg. 12
The Christmas decorations continue to multiply each year. Scheitler has fun in his workshop. Some items have been donated. Others are purchased from Christmas decorator aficionados (many of whom are in their upper 80s and into their 90s) who have retired from setting out their displays.
Last year, the Scheitlers added a bake shop in their garage. Many years ago Joyce sold homemade jams at a local farmer’s market. As her success grew, they began adding baked goods. Rob became well known for his pies. They wondered if they could continue the business in their garage. The homemade treats are available on Friday and Saturday night in the garage. Besides Rob and Joyce, Rob’s Lois Ernst and her molasses cookies. mother, Lois Ernst, The lights begin to shine as the sun sets in the west at Christmas Acres.
Rob Scheitler hands out candy canes to Kayla Lund and Grace Pauley visiting from Shelby, Iowa. Santa Claus can be found everywhere. helps out. Her specialty is molasses cookies. The money from the baked goods funds their daughter’s college education.
Another new item this year is local honey from neighbors Dean and Barb Johnson. The Adaville Honey Company earned its name for a small town which existed for just a few years around the turn of the 19th century.
In honor of Christmas Acres, Virginia Freyermuth of Le Mars designed and sewed a quilt. This quilt is being raffled off. She had one stipulation: the money raised stays with the Scheitler family. The Scheitler family also have one stipulation: “Have yourself a merry Christmas!” Christmas Acres is located at 18481 Impala Ave., Le Mars, Iowa (seven miles west of Le Mars on Highway 3, then south on Impala Ave.) The Scheitlers can be reached at (712) 541-0577. v
