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The annual U.S. Department of 2020-21 but would still be above the 1.78 Agriculture “Ag Outlook Forum” was held billion bushels in 2019-20. USDA is estiin Washington, DC in late February. This mating the farm-level market year averForum is usually the first USDA projec- age corn price for 2022-23 at $5.00 per tion for expected crop acreage and pro- bushel, compared to the current estimatduction for the coming growing season — ed 2021-22 price of $5.65 per bushel; as as well as other current economic condi- well as final market year average prices tions in the agriculture industry. of $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21 and $3.56 It should be noted the Forum was held just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine FARM PROGRAMS per bushel for 2019-20. Soybeans — 2022 U.S. soybean acrewas being initiated and before we knew By Kent Thiesse age is expected to be 88 million acres, the impacts of the conflict. which would be a slight increase from the 2021 soybean acreage of 87.2 million acres and would be well above the U.S. soybean acreage of 82.6 million acres in 2020 and 74.9 million acres in 2019. USDA is estimating the 2022 trend line soybean yield at 51.5 bushels per acre, which would be The recent Ag Outlook Forum projects record U.S. corn yield and production in 2022. However, it also forecasted lower corn and soybean prices in the next 12 months, compared to the end of 2021. MARKETING
USDA released these figures for 2022 U.S. crop slightly above other recent U.S. soybean yields of acreage, yields, production, usage, and grain prices 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021 and 51 bushels per for the major U.S. crops: acre in 2020. The estimated total 2022 U.S. soybean
Total — 2022 U.S. acreage planted to the three production would be nearly 4.5 billion bushels, major crops (corn, soybeans and wheat) is estimated which would be up slightly from 4.43 billion bushels at 228 million acres, which is an increase of 700,000 in 2021. USDA estimates the 2022-23 soybean endacres compared to 2021 and is at the highest level ing stocks at 305 million bushels, which would be in the past eight years (2015-2022). above the estimated 285 million bushels in 2021-22
Corn — U.S. corn acreage is estimated at 92 miland 257 million bushels in 2020-21. lion acres for 2022, which would be a decrease from Total soybean usage for 2022-23 is estimated at 93.4 million acres in 2021. That number would be 4.52 billion bushels, compared to an estimated usage above all other years since 2016, when 94 million of near 4.38 billion bushels for 2021-22, and a usage corn acres were planted. USDA is projecting a trend of 4.5 billion bushels in 2020-21. Soybean export levline national corn yield of 181 bushels per acre in els for 2022-23 are projected to hold strong at 2.15 2022, which would result in an estimated total U.S. billion bushels, which would be very similar to corn production at the record level of nearly 15.24 export levels for the past two years but would be billion bushels. USDA estimated the 2022-23 corn well above the export level of 1.68 billion bushel in ending stocks at 1.96 billion bushels, compared to 2019-20. Domestic soybean usage for 2022-23 is 1.44 billion bushels in 2021-22, 1.23 billion bushels expected to stay steady at about 2.37 billion bushels. in 2019-20, and 1.92 billion bushels in 2018-19. USDA is projecting a 2022-23 market year avcrage Total corn usage for 2022-23 is estimated at just over 14.8 billion bushels, which is similar to the corn usage estimate for 2021-22. The 2022-23 corn usage includes approximately 5.65 billion bushels for livestock feed, 5.4 billion bushels for ethanol proprice of $12.75 per bushel, which would be down from the current price estimate of $13.25 per bushel for 2021-22; but would still be well above the above the final market year average prices of $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21 and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. duction, and 1.4 billion bushels for food and indus- Wheat — U.S. wheat acreage in 2022 is projected to trial use. The corn export level is projected at 2.35 be 48 million acres, which is an increase from recent billion bushels, which would be down from 2.42 bil- wheat acreage levels of 46.7 million acres in 2018, lion bushels for 2021-22 and 2.75 billion bushels for 44.3 million acres in 2020, and 45.5 million acres in 2019. USDA is estimating the 2022 U.S. wheat yield at 49.1 bushels per acre, with a total production of 1.94 billion bushels. This compares to a droughtreduced wheat yield of only 44.3 bushels per acre and a total production level of 1.65 billion bushels in 2021. USDA is projecting wheat ending stocks at 731 million bushels, which compares to 653 million bushels for 2021-22 and 845 million bushels for 2020-21. USDA is estimating the average farm-level wheat price at $6.80 per bushel for the 2022-23 marketing year, compared to the current market year average price estimate of $7.50 per bushel for 2021-22, as well as final market year aveage prices of $5.05 per bushel for 2020-21 and $4.58 per bushel for 2019-20. Of course, it should be noted that the final 2021-22 price estimate and the 2022-23 wheat price projections were made before the recent sharp increase in wheat prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
USDA also released livestock production and price estimates for the coming year at the Forum.
Cattle — USDA estimated the total U.S. cattle inventory at 91.9 million head on Jan. 1, 2022, which is down 2 percent from a year earlier. USDA is projecting total U.S. beef production in 2022 to decrease by about 2 percent to 27.38 billion pounds, with lower slaughter numbers and higher cattle weights. Beef export levels are expected to be over 3.27 billion pounds in 2022, with U.S. beef imports at 3.37 billion pounds. USDA is estimating the 2022 fed cattle market price to average $137 per hundredweight, which would be $15 per cwt. above the 2021 average price and would be the highest average price since 2015.
Hogs — Based on the Dec. 1, 2021 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. USDA estimated total inventory of all U.S. hogs and pigs at 74.2 million head, which was down 4 percent from a year earlier and was at the lowest level since 2017. Total U.S. pork production for 2022 is projected at 27.38 billion pounds, which would be 1 percent below the 2021 level, with lower slaughter numbers being partially offset by heavier pork carcasses — especially if grain prices moderate later in 2022.
Pork export levels in 2022 are expected to decline by about 3 percent to 6.8 billion pounds, after surpassing 7 billion pounds in both 2020 and 2021. USDA is estimating 2022 average hog market price on a live weight basis to be $65 per cwt., which correlates to a lean carcass price of approximately 90 to $95 per cwt. The 2022 lean carcass price projections are down over $3-4 per cwt. from final 2021 average market hog prices.
In recent weeks, the grain markets have been totally focused on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the potential impacts to worldwide grain production and the movement of grain from those countries to other parts of the world. The has resulted in a strong upswing in the grain markets, with wheat futures rising by nearly 40 percent on the Chicago Board of Trade from early February to early March. However, the wheat market was extremely volatile in early March. Nearby CBOT corn futures rose by approximately 25 percent during that same timeframe, with more modest gains to CBOT soybean futures.
It will be interesting to watch how the changing dynamics of worldwide grain production and exports are included in the future monthly USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates reports. There could be some grain marketing opportunities in the coming months, given the likelihood of tighter levels of ending stocks for corn and soybeans — especially if there are some spring planting delays
