Marketing

Grain Outlook Corn moves ahead in short week

The following marketing analysis is for the week ending April 14. CORN — Same song, second verse. After a slow start to the week, corn continued to set new contract highs throughout the curve as the week progressed with the money people not seeing any reason to purge their length. For the second Monday in a row, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a big corn sale to China of 26.7 million bushels for old crop and 13.4 million bushels for new crop. Winter storms across the upper Midwest and cool, wet conditions over much of the Corn Belt erased ideas of “early” planting, but it’s too early to say we’ll be delayed. Drier weather was returning to parts of Brazil and Argentina which may put their PHYLLIS NYSTROM CHS Hedging inC. St. Paul production back in the spotlight.

News on the war front was nothing new with talk of further sanctions against Russia by the West. The EU has not yet stopped all crude oil purchases from Russia and OPEC stated its production won’t make up for lost Russian barrels if a full embargo would be enacted. The Russian offensive is expected to intensify in the eastern regions at any time. Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports in March were a meager 300,000 metric tons compared to 6 million metric tons per month pre-invasion.

Inflation concerns continue to attract money to commodities. In March, inflation was 8.5 percent and the highest in 41 years! The week was a short one with no markets on April 15 in observance of Good Friday.

President Biden’s announcement that E15 would be allowed to be sold through Sept. 15 didn’t move the market. It’s estimated only 10-20 million bushels of additional corn grind may come from the extension. This seems like a band-aid in terms of prices at the pump.

As of April 10, U.S. corn planting was unchanged from the previous week at 2 percent complete. This compares to 3 percent on average and 4 percent last year. Planting should slowly pick up speed; but the forecast for the next week still looks cool and wet for many areas. The heavy snow across parts of North and South Dakota and northern Minnesota will take time to dry enough to allow fieldwork. Brazil’s first corn harvest is estimated at 73 percent complete

Cash Grain Markets

corn/change* soybeans/change*

St. Cloud $7.64 +.59 $16.66 +1.15 Madison $7.85 +.57 $16.37 +.78 Redwood Falls $7.82 +.52 $16.32 +.83 Fergus Falls $7.70 +.52 $16.42 +.78 Morris $7.80 +.58 $16.42 +.78 Tracy

$7.76 +.54 $16.32 +.78 Average: $7.76 $16.42 Year Ago Average: $5.26 $13.76

Grain prices are effective cash close on April 19. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.

compared to 69 percent on average and 72 percent complete last year.

Weekly export sales were within expectations at 52.5 million bushels. This brings total export commitments to 2.2 billion bushels compared to the USDA’s target of 2.5 billion bushels (88 percent). We need 13.4 million bushels of sales per week to reach the forecast. Total commitments are down 17 percent vs. last year when the USDA is forecasting a 9 percent year-on-year decline. New crop sales were 16 million bushels, and all bound for China. Total new crop commitments are 117 million bushels compared to just 82.8 million bushels last year and are the third-highest on record for this date. The Deputy Ag Minister of Ukraine estimates its corn export could fall to 17 mmt this year vs. 23.1 mmt last year.

Weekly ethanol production fell 8,000 barrels per day to 995,000 bpd and was near expectations. Ethanol stocks finally declined, down 1.1 million barrels to 24.8 million barrels which was much larger than the estimate for a 250,000-barrel decline. This was the largest single-week stock decrease in 59 weeks, but stocks are the second-highest on record for this week. There is no way to verify if ethanol exports surged higher. Margins improved 16 cents to 17 cents per gallon. Gasoline demand rose slightly to 8.7 million bpd, but the four-week average is down 2.3 percent from the same period last year.

The price of eggs in the United States and elsewhere is soaring due to bird flu and the Easter holiday demand. In the United States, 19 million egglaying chickens on commercial farms have been destroyed in the worst bird flu outbreak since 2015.

Outlook: Without a substantial reason to reduce net length, funds will likely continue to add to long positions. U.S. weather is being traded as neutral until we see where planting is headed. If there are delays, it is more likely that we won’t see many acres switched from soybeans to corn. The announcement of more Chinese purchases suggests they are either replacing Ukrainian purchases or may be concerned with South American supplies. Weather in the United States and South America will take center stage without a change in the war status in Ukraine.

For the week, May corn surged 21.5 cents higher to $7.90.25, July gained 23 cents at $7.83.75, and December raced 19.25 cents higher to $7.35.25 per bushel. SOYBEANS — Soybeans began the short trading week on the defensive following energy markets lower and without any fresh export sales announcements. Soybeans and soyoil recovered the early week losses as energies rallied back with crude oil surpassing $100 a barrel once again. Old crop soybeans have returned to the middle of their March trading range and new crop soybeans to the upper end of that range. November soybeans were finally able to close above the “magic” $15.00 per bushel level.

South American conditions have turned slightly drier with traders on the outlook for any production changes. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 86 percent complete compared to 83 percent on average and 83 percent last year. Looking ahead, the USDA attaché in Brazil is predicting soybean acreage to increase from 40.7 million hectares this year to 42.5 million hectares in 2022-23. Its 2022-23 soybean production outlook is 139 mmt vs. their estimate for 124.8 mmt this year. Their export projection for 202223 is 87 mmt compared to 77 mmt this year. Argentina’s truckers went on strike April 11 for higher freight rates due to rising fuel costs. At this writing, export sales have not been affected since there were stocks at the ports. If the strike lasts another week, export shipments will either slow or be halted. Eighty-five percent of Argentina’s crops move to the ports by truck.

Weekly export sales were within estimates at a meager 20.2 million bushels for new crop. Total old crop commitments are 2.1 billion bushels. This equates to 98.4 percent of the USDA’s 2.115 billion bushel projection. We only need to average 2.9 million bushels per week to hit the USDA’s number. Traders will be expecting a higher export number in the May World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. New crop sales were very good at 16.8 million bushels with total commitments at 328 million bushels vs. 216 million bushels last year. New crop sales are at a record level for early April. China’s soybean imports in March were down 18.3 percent from last year. Its soybean imports in the calendar year 2022 are down 4.2 percent from 2021.

Outlook: Soybeans continue to be well supported on pullbacks. U.S. planting weather, South American weather and harvest, and the war in Ukraine will remain in the headlines. Dryness has been creeping into areas of Argentina and Brazil. U.S. weather will eventually dry out enough to begin planting but any corn planting delays will diminish ideas that soybean acres may be switched to corn.

China was largely absent this week from the export scene with just one small sale announced but there

Visit www.TheLandOnline.com to view our complete calendar & enter your own events, or send an e-mail with your event’s details to editor@thelandonline.com.

May 7 — Rose Education Day — St. Cloud,

Minn. — Presentations include “Growing Roses at Lyndale Park,” and “Rose Pruning Fundamentals.” Contact Stearns County Master Gardeners at (320) 255-6169.

May 11 — Agronomy in the Field — Mason City,

Iowa — A multi-session, hands-on workshop for women interested in learning more about agronomy. The goals of this series are to provide a better understanding of inputs for crop production, different conservation practices and increase confidence in communication with their spouse, farming partner, ag retailer or tenant. Contact Sarah DeBour at sdebour@iastate.edu or (641) 423-0844.

June 27-July 1 — National Holstein Convention

— Sioux Falls, S.D. — Learn about progress being made within the Holstein breed, dairy farms and the dairy industry. Tours to various dairy operations available. A live auction will take place June 30. Contact Michele Schroeder atmoocheleschroeder@ yahoo.com or (507) 276-4810.

July 12 — 2022 Minnesota Summer Beef Tour

— Apple Valley, Minn. — Stops on the tour include the UMN Andrew Boss Laboratory of Meat Science, UMN College of Veterinary Medicine and UMN Forage Research plots. Attendees will have exclusive access to the entire zoo from 4 to 8 p.m. Lunch and supper included. Contact Joe Armstrong at armst225@umn.edu or (612) 624-3610.

Soybean swings could be big

NYSTROM, from pg. 16

were rumors of more interest. Inflation concerns continue to attract money into commodities. Soybeans are back into the trading range where they spent much of March. Until there’s a solid reason for money to exit its length, the downside will likely be limited. However, the volatility and swings could be big. Continue to manage your risk for any remaining old crop and new crop bushels.

For the week, May soybeans fell 6.75 cents to $16.82.25, July was 2.75 cents lower at $16.65.25, and November was up 6 cents at $15.01.5 per bushel. This was the first weekly close over $15.00 per bushel for the November contract.

Weekly price changes in July wheat for the week ended April 14: Chicago wheat rallied 46.25 cents to $11.04.5, Kansas City jumped 47.25 cents to $11.57.25, and Minneapolis was 15 cents higher at $11.37.5 per bushel. v FOLEY, Minn. — The University of Minnesota Extension is working with the Central Minnesota Forage Council, agribusinesses, and farmers on the Alfalfa Harvest Alert Project again this year. This project monitors alfalfa conditions throughout the Minnesota to help farmers stay on top of their alfalfa fields related to their feed needs, personal experience, and current alfalfa conditions.

This project kicks off when alfalfa reaches between 14 to 16 inches tall. Project cooperators will sample fields Monday and Thursday mornings. Generally, when alfalfa gets around 24 inches tall, we can expect to start seeing buds. With alfalfa, the bud stage is usually when forage quality is in the range for better quality dairy hay and harvest takes place.

Last year alfalfa sample collection started on May 4th and ended on June 1st. Clipped samples are tested to determine Relative Feed Quality, Relative Feed Value, Neutral Detergent Fiber, and other alfalfa quality factors related to harvest decisions. Quality and maturity will also be estimated through an equation called the “Predictive Equation for Alfalfa Quality” RFV. This process uses the stage of maturity and height of the tallest stems to estimate Relative Feed Value and Neutral Detergent Fiber.

The Alfalfa Harvest Alert Data Tool is active again this year. This tool will allow you to select and sort data by year, county, and grower to look back and compare RFV, RFQ, and PEAQ RFV. As the 2022 season progresses this will be the home for all collected information and will remain active throughout the entire year. Go to z.umn.edu/AlfalfaHarvestAlert to learn more.

The Alfalfa Harvest Alert Project information will be shared similarly from past years. Internet users can search for “Minnesota Crop News” for posted information. The results can be directly emailed to you by going to z.umn.edu/tricountysignup and subscribing to the email list.

This article was submitted by Nathan Drewitz, University of Minnesota Extension. v

Register for MFU leadership camps

ST. PAUL — Registration is now open for Minnesota Farmers Union summer leadership camps.

MFU’s leadership camp is open to youth ages 8 to 18. Youth need not be connected to agriculture to attend camp.

MFU’s leadership camp is held in two locations in Minnesota: June 20-24 for ages 8 to 11 near Erskine, Minn.; June 27-July 1 for ages 11 to 14 near Erskine, Minn.; July 11-15 for ages 8 to 11 near New London, Minn.; July 18-22 for ages 11 to 14 near New London, Minn.; and July 24-29 for ages 14 to 18 near New London, Minn.

MFU leadership camp curriculum promotes leadership development while teaching youth about agriculture, cooperatives and Farmers Union. The camps

attract about an equal number of youth from rural Minnesota and the Twin Cities metropolitan area, giving them all an experience in diversity and informing the state’s future leaders about the essential role of agriculture. Covid-19 vaccinations will not be required to attend camp this year, but students will be screened upon arrival and there will also be daily health screenings. Enhanced cleaning protocols are in place and there will be multiple hand washing stations around camp. The Farmers Union five-day, four-night leadership camps are priced at $115 to $140. To learn more, visit mfu.org/camp. This article was submitted by the Minnesota Farmers Union. v Diesel yardage calculator estimates costs

HAMPTON, Iowa – Current retail values of diesel fuel can be used as an index to estimate current and near-future yardage charges in maintaining livestock. It’s important for producers to know their costs — especially in light of higher fuel prices. An updated resource from the Iowa Beef Center, which is a part of Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, allows producers to better estimate energy costs.

When feeding cattle, the items which make up the yardage cost are influenced by energy costs, and diesel fuel prices are a good gauge to what should be happening to the yardage charge within a given operation, and when it needs to be adjusted.

“The energy costs precede all other costs, and diesel fuel pricing is something that is easy to discover and has less ‘data noise’ than following the price of oil on the Board of Trade,” explained Garland Dahlke, an associate scientist with ISU Extension and Outreach. “We can do a fairly good job in estimating what the yardage cost of feeding a pen of cattle will be.”

Dahlke has updated the Iowa Beef Center’s Yardage-Diesel Fuel Relationship calculator to help producers determine cost estimates. This Excelbased calculator allows an existing yardage fee to be adjusted as changes in diesel fuel price occur.

The calculator file is available for free download from the calculators page on the Iowa Beef Center website at https://iowabeefcenter.org/calculators.html.

This article was submitted by Garland Dahlke, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach. v