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Mielke Market Weekly
Herd expansion unlikely as input prices keep climbing
This column was written April 2021. for the marketing week ending April 22. Unfortunately, butter took a hit, coming in at 145.5
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U.S. dairy cow culling million pounds, down 13 jumped in March but fell percent from a year ago, short of a year ago, accord- steepest year over year ing to the U.S. Department decline since August 2016, of Agriculture’s latest according to HighGround Livestock Slaughter report. An estimated 297,200 head were sent to slaughter MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY Dairy. Butter exports were up 46.3 percent but only amounted to 11.2 million under federal inspection, up By Lee Mielke pounds. Nonfat-skim milk powder totaled 172.3 million pounds, down 2.2 percent, falling short of the previous year for the fourth consecutive month. HighGround Dairy points out while 30,700 or 11.5 percent from February; but 5,000 head or 1.7 percent below March 2021. Culling in the first quarter totaled 824,600 head, down 20,100 or 2.4 percent from the same period a year ago. MARKETING
In the week ending April 9, 60,900 domestic disappearance was up from a dairy cows were sent to slaughter, year ago, exports were down 11.5 perdown 100 head from the previous cent — driving the overall decline. week, but 400 or 0.7 percent above a Port congestion issues likely played a year ago. role there.
The USDA’s monthly Livestock, Dry whey disappearance totaled 68.6 Dairy, and Poultry Outlook stated, “It’s million pounds, down 5.8 percent, but not clear if dairy herd expansion will was an improvement over 2020’s weak continue throughout the year. Recent performance, according to HighGround input prices for feed, fuel, and fertiliz- Dairy. Dry whey exports were down er have been high. The corn price fore- 20.1 percent from a year ago in cast has been raised as has the soy- February. bean meal price forecast.” Powder, cheese, and butter (in that
“While milk cows are forecast to order) pulled the April 19 Global average 9.37 million for the first half Dairy Trade auction lower, the third of the year, they are projected to consecutive decline. The weighted decline to 9.365 million in the second average dropped 3.6 percent following half. The annual average forecast the 1 percent slip on April 5, and 0.9 rounds to 9.37 million head, 15,000 percent on March 15. higher than last month’s forecast. The forecast for 2022 average milk per cow was unchanged from last month’s forecast of 24,160 pounds per head.” All products offered lost ground. Whole milk powder led the declines, down 4.4 percent, after it fell 1.5 percent on April 5. Skim milk powder foln lowed, down 4.2 percent after inching U.S. dairy product commercial disappearance showed some weakness in February. The good news was cheese, with American-type up 7.2 percent from February 2021, and the other cheese category up 6.4 percent. Total cheese disappearance hit 1.1 billion pounds, up 6.8 percent. Exports were up 1 percent last time. GDT cheddar was down 3.9 percent following a 2.7 percent jump, and butter was down 3.7 percent after it slipped 0.6 percent. Anhydrous milkfat was off 1.3 percent following a 2.5 percent drop, and lactose rounded out the losses, down 2.4 percent. up 9.2 percent from a year ago. Lee Mielke is a syndicated columnist HighGround Dairy points out that February was the fifth month in a row that total cheese disappearance topped that of the previous year and was the who resides in Everson, Wash. His weekly column is featured in newspapers across the country and he may be reached at lkmielke@juno.com. v steepest year-over-year gain since
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