Marketing

NYSTROM, from pg. 15

Weekly export sales were as expected at 17.7 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 2.115 billion bushels. This is down 6 percent from last year when the USDA is projecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5 percent. We need sales to average a miniscule1.3 million bushels per week to achieve the USDA outlook. New crop sales were 21.3 million bushels. For mid-April, new crop soybean sales are a record 394.7 million bushels. Last year, new crop sales were only 243.6 million bushels. China has purchased 257.2 million bushels of 2022-23 soybeans when last year they had not bought any new crop soybeans by this date.

The USDA attaché in Argentina pegged soybean production at 41 mmt vs. USDA’s 43.5 mmt projection. The BAGE put Argentina’s soybean harvest at 46 percent complete as of April 28.

Outlook: Soybean action was more mixed during the week with July soybeans struggling to stay above $17.00 per bushel. For the week, July soybeans closed 3.25 cents lower at $16.84.75 and the November contract gained 9.5 cents to settle at $15.14.75 per bushel. Factors to watch in soybeans include soyoil action, Chinese demand, crush margins, and residual effects from the war in Ukraine.

Keep your eye on the ball and manage your risk as you see fit. If the weather makes a turn for the better here and in South America, we could find ourselves scrambling to make catch-up sales. But until an event shakes the current longs out of their comfort zone, the downside is likely limited.

Weekly price changes in July wheat for the week ended April 29: Chicago wheat dropped 19.5 cents to $10.55.75, Kansas City plunged 43.75 cents to $11.05.75, and Minneapolis was 3.25 cents higher at $11.66 per bushel. New contract highs were set in Minneapolis wheat during the week. v

Sugar beet processing is on a 24/7 schedule

By DICK HAGEN

The Land Staff Writer Emeritus

RENVILLE, Minn. — Always an informative visit for me is my annual spring interview with Todd Geselius, Vice President of Agriculture with the Southern Minnesota Beet Sugar Cooperative.

With nearly 500 shareholder/growTodd Geselius ers across 17 counties, this co-op is the largest farmer-owned sugar beet processing company in the United States. In 2020, SMBSC growers planted approximately 121,350 acres producing just under 3.6 million harvested tons. So on March 30 with fresh snow still blanketing much of the countryside, Todd welcomed me into his office for a quick question-andanswer session.

The Land: You had a tremendous harvest last year. Was it your biggest ever?

Geselius: It was amongst the biggest ever. On planted acres we averaged about 29.2 tons per acre. Yes, 2021 was a very big crop.

The Land: So what are sugar beet acres likely to be for 2022?

Geselius: Our Board has decided to widen out our planting tolerance. Growers get a planting tolerance based on how many shares they own in the co-op. If we say the planting tolerance is 100 percent, that means if you own 100 shares you can plant 100 acres. We usually give a range to allow shareholders some flexibility to maintain crop rotation intervals. So our range this year is 90 to 105 percent, which we are expecting to result in a few less acres than last year.

The Land: And how is this 45-year old factory working today?

Geselius: Some ups and downs just like every season; but our dedicated staff keeps this factory humming. We installed some new equipment last fall which took some time to get functioning as desired. Daily slice averages about 12,000 tons per day when we are slicing frozen beets in the spring, so that’s currently about a normal pace.

The Land: I still see a huge piling site just east of Buffalo Lake. You have a factory still in high gear, 24 hours per day, 7 days per week, so when are you likely to finish this campaign?

Geselius: The Buffalo Lake piling site will be next, after we finish the Murdoc piling site. We have 12 piling sites located across our 17-county production area. Our goal is always to process the entire harvested crop.

The Land: How many years for you, Todd, here at this facility?

Geselius: I’ve been in this role since 2010. It’s been a great industry to be a part of. Yes, the sugar beet and sugar cane industries have been pretty stable over the years. Today, about 54-55 percent of U.S. sugar production comes from sugar beets, the rest from sugar cane in the south. Yet we continue to be a net importer of sugar as domestic production is not able to keep up with U.S. sugar consumption.

The Land: Are there any precautions for growers as they make ready for 2022 sugar beet plantings?

Geselius: Like I always say, “It all depends upon the weather.” Right now I’m concerned about how deep this winter’s freezing temps worked into the ground. At some point we’re going to need a warm rain to drive out some of that frost permeating our top soils.

The Land: And the impact of the U.S. inflation on your growers and your employees?

Geselius: For growers, the obvious … significant increases of all their production costs and that puts more pressure on the entire system. We’re blessed with tremendously well-informed growers. They adjust as needed. They are good stewards of their machinery and their soils. I salute them for their competitive spirits, courageous families and generous hearts always willing to help their neighbors as needed.

The Land: Do growers use their own equipment when battling troublesome weeds, like glyphosateresistant water hemp and other pests or use a co-op’s rigs and crews or aerial applicators with an airplane attack?

Geselius: Some, or all of those. It depends on their individual situation. Most of our guys either do their own or hire the local coop. But some things need to be done by aerial applicators. Suffice to say, when it’s wet out, it’s aerial applicators to the rescue! v

Ice cream makers are buying cream

MIELKE, from pg. 11

Cream inventories are steadily available in the West. Contacts report that demand is steady from purchasers in other regions. Regional ice cream makers continue to purchase loads of cream. Demand for butter is steady to lower in both food service and retail markets and the higher prices caused some retail customers to start utilizing alternatives to butter. Butter makers in the region say they are running busy schedules to meet current demand and to build inventory, but labor shortages and delayed deliveries of supplies continues to keep plants from running at capacity, according to Dairy Market News.

Grade A nonfat dry milk fell to $1.7075 per pound on April 25 (the lowest since Jan. 6), but it rallied on April 17 (the first gain in eight sessions) and closed April 29 at $1.755. The price remains unchanged on the week, 9.5 cents lower on the month, but 43 cents above a year ago. There were eight sales on the week and 55 for the month, down from 82 a month ago.

StoneX points out that Russia has suspended shipments of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria as they are not being paid in rubles. “This was a new requirement imposed by Russia to bolster their currency,” says StoneX, “but many countries have been

See MIELKE, pg. 17

MIELKE, from pg. 16

unwilling or unable to pay this way. From a dairy perspective, this is calling into question the ability to produce skim milk powder in certain parts of Europe.”

Whey fell to 57.5 cents per pound on April 25 (the lowest since Sept. 27), but regained 3 cents by the end of the week to close at 60.5 cents per pound. This is down 3 cents on the week, a half-cent below its April 1 post, and 5.5 cents below a year ago. There were 10 sales on the week and 33 for the month, up from 19 in March. n

Sentiment was mixed at this week’s annual conference of the American Dairy Products Institute and American Butter Institute, according to StoneX Dairy staff, underscored by tremendous supply chain issues which have not abated.

“On the slightly bearish side there seems to be some evidence that buyers are willing to push out delivery times perhaps indicating they have built up enough extra inventory for now. On bullish side, milk is still snug. Normally this is the meeting we hear all about too much milk. We didn’t hear that this time. While processors seem to have enough milk, the lack of abundance here in mid-April has some concerned what fresh milk supplies will look like come July or August.”

Speaking in the May 2 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast, Matt Gould, analyst and editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter, said there was a lot of optimism about exports at the conference, with many deals being made there, but on the other hand, there was pessimism regarding China’s lockdowns.

Gould reported there are about 500 ships anchored off the coast, waiting to unload in China, and those ships have about a fifth of the world’s shipping containers on them, which has worsened the container shortage in the rest of the globe. He said it will take two months to clear, once China ends the lockdowns.

Meanwhile, Gould’s April 22 issue reported on the concern over $8.00 per bushel corn that dairy farmers face and stated, “At current feed prices, we estimate the average cost of production in the second quarter is above $23.00 per cwt. for farmers that are purchasing feed.”

When asked about it, Gould warned a corn price that high means “We can’t stomach much of a decrease in dairy product prices and resulting milk prices; because it won’t take much to fall below that level. That’s a really high number.”

Gould believes Chinese dairy imports will continue to lag below year-ago levels through second quarter, due to the Covid lockdowns — the biggest occurring in Shanghai, but new cases are being seen in Beijing.

The good news, according to the Analyst, is “Chinese dairy consumption surged since the pandemic. Consumption of dairy set a new high and increased by 12 percent last year to 42.3 kilograms per person, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. That increase is massive. It works out to about 15 billion pounds of milk or the output of more than 600,000 cows,” wrote Gould. n

Checking the rear view mirror, the USDA’s 2020 Dairy Products Summary showed total cheese production at 13.3 billion pounds, up just 0.9 percent from 2019. Wisconsin had five additional plants on line in 2020 and California added three.

Italian varieties totaled 5.63 billion pounds, down 0.8 percent from 2019 production and accounted for 42.4 percent of total cheese output in 2020. Mozzarella accounted for 79.1 percent of Italian production followed by Parmesan with 7.4 percent and Provolone at 6.5 percent. Wisconsin was the leading State in Italian cheese with 29.3 percent.

American type cheese hit 5.34 billion pounds, 2 percent above 2019 and accounted for 40.3 percent U.S. cheese. Wisconsin was the leading state in American output with 19.9 percent.

Butter production totaled 2.15 billion pounds, 7.6 percent above 2019. California was the leading state with 31.1 percent of the production.

Nonfat dry milk for human consumption amounted to 1.99 billion pounds, up 7.6 percent. Skim milk powders, at 695 million pounds, were up 21.4 percent and dry whey totaled 951 million pounds, down 2.7 percent.

Milk production trends are increasing in most areas around the country, according to Dairy Market News. The exception is in the Southwest, namely Arizona, where warm spring weather is keeping milk output down year over year. Class I fluid milk demand reports are mixed throughout the country. Firm interests in the Northeast are being offset by slowdowns in the South. A number of contacts say Class I demand is unchanged. Soon to be school closings will change that data.

Cheesemakers are clearing discounted loads of spot milk in the Midwest, ranging from $2.50 to $1.50 under Class. Condensed skim availability remains similar, but hauling/processing continues to burden milk handlers and plant managers.

Lee Mielke is a syndicated columnist who resides in Everson, Wash. His weekly column is featured in newspapers across the country and he may be reached at lkmielke@juno.com. v