10 minute read
Marketing
Grain Outlook Corn market slips; planting behind
Editor’s Note: Joe Lardy, CHS Hedging research analyst, is sitting in this week for Phyllis Nystrom, the regular “Grain Outlook” columnist.
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The following marketing analysis is for the week ending May 6. CORN — The positive momentum the market carried into last weekend started to slide away as we began the week. The fresh export announcements we saw last week completely dried up, and left the market looking for bullish inputs to hold on to gains. For the week, July corn futures dropped 28.75 cents. JOE LARDY
Export inspections continue to CHS Hedging inC. move along at a good pace. There St. Paul have been only a few times this year the weekly total has dropped below the five-year average. Although we are at the point in the year when inspections level off before dropping down into the end of the marketing year. Export sales data was ok. China bought nearly a half a million tons of old crop.
Planting progress for corn is still terrible. At only 14 percent, this is the lowest activity since 2013. In the past 25 years, only 2011 and 2013 had the corn crop going in at a slower pace than now. The fiveyear average is at 33 percent and the crop should be
Cash Grain Markets
corn/change* soybeans/change*
Stewartville $7.43 -.14 $15.69 -.72 Edgerton $7.65 -.19 $15.32 -.75 Jackson $7.75 -.19 $15.47 -.50 Hope $7.59 -.08 $15.39 -.65 Cannon Falls $7.31 -.15 $15.53 -.81 Sleepy Eye $7.57 -.21 $15.37 -.71 Average: $7.55 $15.46 Year Ago Average: $7.28 $16.17
Grain prices are effective cash close on May 10. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.
50 percent planted next week. Clearly, that is not going to happen. Best case scenario is that the weather breaks enough to make up a little bit of the gap. Based on the weather forecasts, there are some open windows coming along with a lot of heat. It might take a couple of weeks, but the corn planting pace does look to improve. Those opportunities to get planting also pressured the market this week.
Ethanol production was up for the second week in a row; but the current pace continues to be disappointing. Current weekly production is right in line with last year’s production. Current levels are not back to pre-pandemic levels. The high price of gas is certainly not incenting people to get out and drive more.
The weather in Brazil is not good. The rainy season has ended, and the crop is really under stress. Most private forecasts are lowering their corn production estimates. Outlook: The market will be closely watching planting progress over the next couple of weeks. Will planting catch up quick enough? On May 12 we will get the May World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. That report will give us the first look at the 2022-23 balance sheets. The big question will be what yield the U.S. Department of Agriculture is going to use and how tight the carryout will be. SOYBEANS — The bean market opened the week with downward pressure and was never able to recover. For the week, July soybean futures lost 68.75 cents.
Soybean export inspections are slightly better than the five-year average right now. We are in the seasonally low area for the marketing year; but a short Brazilian crop has certainly pushed some old crop business to the United States. Export sales this week had some positives and negatives. Old crop sales were better than expected with China and unknown (China most likely) the leading buyers. New crop sales were disappointing at the low end of expectations. Although cumulative new crop sales are at a record pace for this point in the marketing year.
Brazil continues to struggle with bad weather affecting production. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the USDA make another cut to production in next week’s WASDE. The government issued export figures showing 11.5 million tons of soybeans were shipped out of Brazil in April compared to 16.1 million tons a year ago. In Argentina, the soybean harvest has advanced to 55 percent complete. Crop conditions have dropped again to only 16 percent good/ excellent. Outlook: The big WASDE report will give the soybean market its guidance. Expectations are for ending stocks to be cut. Any cuts will bring supplies close to pipeline minimums. This should add a layer of support to the market. v
Information in the above column is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk. ‘I encourage young women to get involved in agriculture’
CYPHERS, from pg. 12
I was born and raised in Fairmont, Minn. and lived two different lifestyles. When with my mom, I did things in town such as visit family, go on walks, or watch her tend to house plants. With my dad, I did things around his farm rental such as dirt bike, hop in a tractor, or ride with him as he hauled grain. So, I understood an agriculture lifestyle, but I wasn’t immersed in it, and would rarely see someone like me, a female, in an agriculture career.
Fast forward to a few years after High School, I saw many females excel in or enter agriculture careers. My view quickly changed, but I still didn’t think agriculture was a career for me as I wasn’t immersed in it. During this time, I stayed in the Bacon Capital, but moved to Truman, Minn. where I enjoy the rural lifestyle.
After my dad retired, we worked with a non-profit that would ship donated, restored farm equipment to Africa. My dad would go to the community to teach sustainable farming. Being involved with this as an adult taught me how agriculture impacts our region and the world — and showed me the fun you can have in agriculture.
In 2018, I went back to South Central College full-time and learned about a new Business Transfer Pathway to Minnesota State University, Mankato. I had a background in marketing and was encouraged to pursue accounting, so I took the Pathway to MNSU majoring in marketing and minoring in accounting.
While at MNSU, I spotted GreenSeam promoting the Agribusiness and Food Innovation minor. I contemplated switching my minor, but I could only imagine working for a non-profit such as the one I had volunteered at, which is in a large city, and I did not want to leave my rural lifestyle. Boy, was I wrong! There are many options for everyone in agriculture no matter where you grew up, the amount of education you have completed, the educational program you are in, or what gender you identify as.
Inclusivity in the ag industry is growing rapidly and I can’t wait to help spread the news and encourage those interested, especially young women, to get involved in agriculture. If I can pass one bit of advice, it would be to keep an open mind and never stop searching for a dream career, you will find it!
Michalia Cyphers is a Program Manager at GreenSeam and the GreenSeam Talent Committee Staff Lead. She can be reached at mcyphers@greenseam.org. v
Use care with spring alfalfa termination
FOLEY, Minn. — So far, winter injury issues are not a concern for alfalfa stands throughout the region which had plenty of snowfall through the winter months. For the most part, temperatures have remained mild enough to prevent ice sheeting. The larger concerns will be for stands which are starting to age and thin out due to other issues.
For those stands which are less than adequate (less than 40 stems per square foot), what are the alternative options, or should the stand be terminated? With alternative management, consider the cost and benefits of trying to maintain the stand vs. termination. For those stands where alternatives will not be cost effective to maintain, termination will be the next step.
Spring termination does have its benefits as there is some potential for a late May harvest prior to termination. Alfalfa can provide soil cover to help prevent erosion.
Termination of alfalfa using herbicides is typically done using 2-4-D, dicamba and glyphosate. Check the label of the alfalfa variety for glyphosate resistant traits. If you planted glyphosate-resistant alfalfa, glyphosate application will not help with termination. Also, make sure to follow the herbicide label’s plant back restrictions on whatever crop you are planting following termination.
One other benefit is the potential nitrogen that comes from a terminated stand of alfalfa. The amount of nitrogen present can be up to 200 pounds stored in the plant and may be enough to supply corn planted in the first year following termination with its nitrogen requirements. The disadvantage of this route is the decomposition of alfalfa. The release of nitrogen may not be fast enough to supply the entire needs of the corn crop grown in the first year following termination. Scout fields looking for nitrogen deficiencies in the corn and supply extra nitrogen where needed.
Since corn is typically grown following alfalfa stand termination, be aware that delayed planting may be an issue. Planting dates of corn usually happens prior to alfalfa reaching 4 inches tall which is around the height that herbicides are applied. Plant back restrictions need to be followed in this situation and may require a couple of weeks before corn can be planted.
Alfalfa also uses water at a higher level than other crops. Other options such as planting drought-tolerant corn hybrids should be considered in fields with limited in-season moisture.
This article was submitted by Nathan Drewitz, University of Minnesota Extension. v
Erickson going solar for watering system
ERICKSON, from pg. 9
for forage for the cattle.” “If we don’t get rain over the weekend; we’ll get into the field next week.” The ground is finally drying out from the five inches of moisture that fell in April. Ideally, Erickson would’ve liked to have planted corn earlier. From April 25 to May 1 is when Erickson typically likes to get planting. In addition to the busyness of the spring and summer months, Erickson will be having a solar system installed in a pasture. Those solar panels will allow Erickson to pump water from the well for tanks, as well as create a pipeline for water. Looking ahead to the growing months, moisture is still a concern — even as Erickson gazes out at his muddy fields. Though he believes this is a better situation this year. “We got moisture in the ground.” With this wild rollercoaster of spring, Erickson would like some leveling off the extremes. “Just some consistency would be the best thing we can hope for.” v
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