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THE LAND — MAY 27/JUNE 3, 2022
www.thelandonline.com — “Where Farm and Family Meet”
MARKETING
Grain Outlook Corn market hit short-term bottom? The following marketing analysis is for the week ending May 27. CORN — After a higher start to the week, July corn moved to lows not seen since mid-April by midweek. December corn also retreated but managed to stay above the early May lows. The latter half of the week saw corn recover and post just small losses for the week. Planting progress made great strides in the week that ended May 22 with corn planting at 72 percent complete. By May 29, planting is expected to hit 90 percent complete vs. 87 percent on average. With the crop insurance date either passed or very close in the upper Midwest, it PHYLLIS NYSTROM seems unlikely we’ll add corn CHS Hedging Inc. acres in this area over what has St. Paul been expected. A negative to the corn market this week was the announcement that China and Brazil had reached an agreement for China to import Brazilian corn. There was chatter the deal was made some time ago but was just announced this week. There are still some GMO issues to be worked through and any deals may not actually happen for a few months. However, there was also talk that China had purchased 1 million metric tons of Brazilian corn before the announcement. There’s no confirmation to that either. In the end, the United States and Brazil will probably trade some export customers back and forth. However, we like to see the big Chinese purchase announcements vs. several small sales. Adding volatility to the markets was the geopolitical posturing of Russia. The United Nations is working on an agreement to create a corridor for Ukrainian grain shipments out of the Black Sea. Russia has signaled they may consider it, but they want concessions that the West is unlikely to grant. Russia wants Ukraine to repair port facilities and demine the Black Sea. They also want the West to remove financial and export sanctions imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia blames the West for creating the critical food situation. There is an estimated 20 mmt of grain stuck in Ukraine which supplies 10 percent of world wheat exports, 14 percent of world corn exports, and 50 percent of world sunflower exports. Ukrainian officials stated they have enough stored grain to meet both domestic and global demand through 2022 and possibly into 2023.
Cash Grain Markets corn/change* St. Cloud $7.29 -.47 Madison $7.39 -.48 Redwood Falls $7.49 -.42 Fergus Falls $7.24 -.47 Morris $7.43 -.48 Tracy $7.50 -.38 Average:
soybeans/change* $16.53 .00 $16.23 .00 $16.50 +.17 $16.33 +.05 $16.20 -.13 $16.40 +.12
$7.39
$16.37
Year Ago Average: $6.67
$15.49
Grain prices are effective cash close on May 31. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.
SovEcon estimates Ukrainian corn production at 27 mmt for this year vs. 42.1 mmt produced last year (pre-war). The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting Ukrainian corn production at 19.5 mmt. The USDA announced this week they would allow growers in their final year of the Conservation Reserve Program to request voluntary termination of their contract following the end of the primary nesting season for 2022. Voluntary participants who are approved will not have to repay rental payments. FSA offices will be mailing information to growers with expiring acres. Producers will have to request the termination in writing. Planting progress as of May 22 was 72 percent complete which was better than the 68 percent estimate and was approaching the 79 percent average. Planting in Minnesota was 60 percent complete vs. 86 percent average, Iowa at 86 percent complete vs. 89 percent average, and Illinois caught up to their 78 percent average. North Dakota was a minimal 20 percent complete vs. 66 percent, South Dakota was 62 percent complete vs. 71 percent average, and Nebraska was 85 percent complete vs. 88 percent average. U.S. corn emergence was 39 percent compared to 51 percent on average. A well-respected consultancy estimates prevent plant acres may hit 5 million acres, up from its previous forecast for 2.6 million prevent plant acres. They expect planted corn acres at 90.5 million acres which is 1 million higher than the USDA outlook. Weekly export sales were a marketing year low at 6 million bushels, bringing total commitments to 2.3 billion bushels. This lags last year by 14 percent. We need to average 10.1 million bushels of weekly sales to ring the bell on the USDA export forecast for 2.5 billion bushels. New crop sales were 2.3 million bushels. Total new crop commitments are 222 million bushels vs. 576 million bushels on the books last year. Weekly ethanol production was up 23,000 barrels per day at 1.014 million bpd. Stocks fell 100,000 barSee NYSTROM, pg. 17
Financial Focus Fallen tree damage — who pays? As a homeowner, are you responsible for the damage caused by a tree on your property that hits your neighbor’s home or other insured structure — such as a garage or shed? In most cases, the answer is “no.” When such damage occurs to your neighbor’s home due to forces outside your control (e.g., weather events), your neighbors may have to file a claim with their insurer to receive a reimbursement for the damage a down tree or branches cause. There is one exception, however. If it is determined the tree damage stems from your negligence (e.g., dead limbs you refused to MARISSA cut down, or you chose to trim JOHNSON your tree as a weekend project), Profinium then the neighbor’s insurer may Wealth Management come after you to recover their Advisor loss — a process called subrogation. You may want to check your policy or speak to your insurance agent to ascertain if your homeowners policy covers your liability in cases of negligence. When neighbors sue… Some neighbors may seek to bring legal action against you, though often that is unnecessary. First, determine what municipal laws are in place to cover such instances. Generally speaking, you are not responsible unless you knew, or should have known, about the danger. Proving what you knew or should have known can be difficult and costly in a court of law. It typically benefits both parties to arrive at a compromise that avoids an expensive legal process. (Note: The information in this material is not intended as legal advice. Please consult legal or insurance professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation.)
Securities and insurance products are offered through Cetera Investment Services LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFG STC Insurance Agency LLC), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Cetera Investment Advisers LLC. Neither firm is affiliated with the financial institution where investment services are offered. Advisory services are only offered by Investment Adviser Representatives.
See JOHNSON, pg. 17
Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.
