THE LAND — JULY 8/JULY 15, 2022
PAGE 13
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MARKETING
Grain Outlook Down is the word for grain markets
and 92.4 million acres. The USDA gave us 88.325 million acres. Coming in even below the bottom end of expectations should have been bullish — very bullcorn/change* soybeans/change* ish. But the overwhelming outflows quickly squashed any bullish reaction to the surprise figures. Stewartville $6.64 -.92 $14.60 -1.49 If you plug in 88.325 million acres into the soybean Edgerton $6.82 -1.02 $14.69 -2.52 balance sheet and keep all the other variables the Jackson $6.89 -1.27 $14.61 -1.54 same, the carry out is only 143 million bushels. For Hope $6.92 -.89 $14.43 -1.54 many analysts, that is right on pipeline minimums. Editor’s Note: Joe Lardy, CHS Hedging research ana- Cannon Falls $6.54 -.97 $14.68 -1.54 We are now looking at a carryout that is real tight. lyst, is sitting in this week for Phyllis Nystrom, the Sleepy Eye $6.77 -1.04 $14.39 -1.69 There is no room for a weather hiccup at this point. regular “Grain Outlook” columnist. Average: $6.76 $14.57 Soybean export data was a mixed bag this week. The following marketing analysis is for the week endInspections were ok. This is the 17th straight week ing July 1. Year Ago Average: $6.26 $13.26 where this year’s inspections were better than last CORN — Another tough week for the corn market. Grain prices are effective cash close on July 5. year. The current levels are running right in line On the week, December corn futures dropped 66.5 *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period. with the five-year average. Export sales data was cents. Over the last two weeks, corn has dropped terrible. Old crop sales were a negative for the first $1.23. Over the past 10 trading sessions, there have been eight down days and time this year due to cancellations and marked a marketing year low. New crop only two up days. The markets feel like they are in a downward trend and it’s sales barely offset the old crop debacle and the net total was only 271,000 bushgoing to be hard to reverse the trend. els. Those numbers certainly won’t stop any bearish momentum. The market got a huge lift from the inflationary talk; but there has been a Outlook: The USDA did include a footnote that they will resurvey Minnesota, decisive shift to more recessionary talk. That environment is not friendly for North Dakota, and South Dakota due to late plantings. I don’t see a huge numcommodities so a lot of the inflationary gains have been given back. ber of additional acres coming back. So now weather will become a real big factor. The big event this week was the quarterly stocks and acreage reports on June The bean balance sheet is too tight to have any yield drags. Keep your friendly v 30. Overall, the corn numbers were very neutral coming in very near expecta- meteorologist on speed dial. tions. Quarterly stocks were 4.346 billion bushels compared to expectations of 4.343 billion. A difference of only 3 million bushels. This is about as neutral of Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should an input as possible. The acreage number of 89.921 was slightly above expecta- not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk. tions of 89.86 million. The market took that slight increase as a very bearish input and sold off hard on report day. It felt like the market needed something very bullish to hold on, and those numbers didn’t come. Adding to the corn market woes this week was the export numbers. Export inspections were the second-lowest total of the past 10 weeks. And sadly, the numbers didn’t improve when export sales data was released on June 30. The combined total was a marketing year low. Cancellations to Panama, Mexico, Taiwan, and unknown really brought down this week’s total. In Brazil, the Safrinha harvest is ongoing and about 20 percent complete which is slightly ahead of average. Yields have been variable. Most estimate have the Brazilian corn crop a little lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate of 116 million metric tons. Outlook: With the report behind us, when will the money outflows stop? The July World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report will be upon us within a few weeks and the new data will be reflected there. Weather has been a little dry, so timely rains will be needed to hold onto yields. I think SOYBEANS — The soybean market also had a down week. November soybeans ended the week down 29 cents. The losses over the last two weeks total $1.42. The stocks report for soybeans was super close to expectations also at 971 milMust present coupon at Farmfest 2022. lion bushels vs. expectations of 965 million. But the major surprise from the Good while supplies last. report came from soybean acreage. The range of estimates was between 88.7
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