Marketing

Grain Outlook

Corn prices fall to lowest since January

CORN – A bright start to the week was quickly erased with a Turnaround Tuesday that continued for the balance of the week as corn faded to lows not seen since January. The markets are at the mercy of every updated weather forecast. Returning from the weekend the 6–15-day weather maps were hot and dry. Within 24 hours the maps were relenting slightly on the temperature and giving better chances of showers in the Midwest. The maps looked more favorable for pollination throughout the week. Later in the week, NOAA released its August/September/October forecast that is for above normal temperatures for the country and below normal rainfall for most of the Corn Belt. Although the US dollar’s strength was cited as a factor in weakness in PHYLLIS NYSTROM CHS Hedging inC. St. Paul grain earlier in the month when the dollar faded the grain didn’t receive the love in return. The signing of the Black Sea Initiative at the end of the week pressured wheat with big losses that spread to the corn market.

The Black Sea Initiative talks continued and resulted in signed agreements on July 22. There are four main parties involved, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the UN and Russia signed a parallel agreement with Turkey and the UN. Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement with each other. There is high optimism that Ukrainian grain shipments will begin in the coming weeks, but there is also some skepticism about how smoothly this may occur. The terms as I understand them include Ukraine guiding grain ships from three specific Black Sea ports out to sea, but no military escorts. The ports of Odesa, Chernomorsk, and Yyzhny are included in the plan. A team consisting of members from all parties will inspect incoming ships to prevent the smuggling of weapons or troops into Ukraine. Russia agrees not to attack grain carrying ships or specified grain facilities in a pseudo-ceasefire situation, although no ceasefire is mentioned in the documents. The agreement is for 120 days with extensions available. The UN is hoping for 5 mmt of exports per month, but traders are anticipating something closer to 3 mmt per month. There are unanswered questions remaining: insurance companies want assurance of escorts to provide safety to vessels and we don’t know if the current plan will meet that need; the plan for vessels to be guided around mines versus the mines being removed may be tricky; how much and what quality of grain is in the export houses is uncertain; and if the grain facilities are operatable and how they will be staffed is unknown. And will Russia honor any agreement they sign? Russia’s assault on Ukraine is unrelenting.

The Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline that supplies most of the gas to Germany was closed for 10 days of annual maintenance that concluded July 21. The pipeline flow restarted at 40% of capacity which was the rate before the downtime. However, Russian President Putin continues to warn this rate could be lowered or even stopped. Europe reportedly is formulating a plan to ration Russian natural gas as needed if Russian supplies tighten. The plan includes limiting indoor temperatures to 66 degrees and prioritizing energy-intensive industries.

The heat the US has experienced doesn’t seem to compare to the record heat across Europe and the United Kingdom. Fires in Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany are on the rise. Crops are feeling the effect of the heat in combination with a lack of moisture.

Weekly export sales were the second lowest of the marketing year. The last time we had a daily export sales flash for corn was on June 9. Old crop sales were just 1.3 million bushels. Total commitments are 2.4 billion bushels and down 13 percent from last year. We need to average 10.2 million bushels per week to hit the USDA’s 2.45-billion-bushel target. As the marketing year dwindles to just seven weeks left, the USDA’s number may be too high. New crop sales were 22.5 million bushels. New crop sales are 291.6 million bushels compared with 635 million bushels last year (China last year had an early buying spree). Brazil’s corn exports in the first half of this year are up 221% without Ukrainian competition. Has China covered their old crop needs out of the US? Corn prices on the Dalian Exchange this week fell to 8-month lows.

Weekly ethanol production was up 29,000 bpd to 1.03 million bpd, but the 4-week average is down 1.4% from last year. This casts doubt on whether we will meet the USDA’s corn for ethanol usage projection of 5.375 billion bushels. Ethanol stocks fell 53,000 barrels to 23.55 million barrels. Margins were drastically improved to 41 cents per gallon. Gasoline demand at 8.5 million bpd is up approximately 500,000 bpd but is down 8.3% for the same period last year.

President Biden stopped short of declaring a national climate emergency which could allow him to move funds toward clean energy projects, restrict offshore drilling, or limit the movement of fossil fuels. He did announce plans through executive actions to increase wind energy development in the Gulf of Mexico and on the Atlantic and Florida coasts. The Energy Department is expected to announce a plan to spend $96 million to push technology and charging infrastructure needed to electrify tractors, construction equipment, planes, trains, boats, etc.

OUTLOOK – Grower sales have dried up as producers sold what they wanted before prices broke lower and are reluctant to sell at current levels. Empty storage in the country is abundant as we approach fall harvest and if prices don’t rebound, we could see a tendency to fill that storage this fall. September and December corn traded to their lowest since January 24. December corn prices will be at the mercy of every weather forecast with pollination in full force. Adding to the big swings in the market will be the influence of the progress of the Black Sea Initiative, money flows, demand, and macroeconomic issues.

For the week, September corn plummeted 40 cents to $5.64 ¼ and December corn plunged 39 ½ cents to $5.64 ¼ per bushel.

SOYBEANS – Soybeans saw the same early week action for the same reasons as corn. A change in the weather outlook slashed Monday’s gains in a Turnaround Tuesday dance but soybeans rallied into the weekend to shave earlier losses. November soybeans however did trade to their lowest since January 24. Indonesia’s decision to eliminate its export tax on palm oil through August lent pressure to palm and soyoil. They have also postponed their plan to increase their biodiesel blend from 30% to 35%. Rumors of China buying US new soybeans were confirmed this week, but the amount was less than expected. Safras updated its 2022/2023 soybean production outlook to a record 151.6 mmt compared with the USDA outlook for 149 mmt. Soybean acreage is anticipated to increase 2.6 percent year/ year to 106 million acres.

China’s hog margins have improved with the government buying for reserves. How their Covid situation pans out will figure into their soybean demand. Shanghai citizens will have to take a Covid test at least once a week through August. China imported 27.7 mmt of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2022, up from 26.1 mmt last year. In the same period, China imported 17.54 mmt of U.S. soybeans

Cash Grain Markets

corn/change* soybeans/change*

St. Cloud $6.62 +.03 $14.29 -.19 Madison $6.82 +.03 $13.78 -.80 Redwood Falls $6.87 +.03 $13.84 -.94 Fergus Falls $6.57 +.03 $13.40 -.78 Morris $6.72 -.02 $13.79 -.54 Tracy $6.84 +.03 $13.74 -.99 Average: $6.74 $13.81 Year Ago Average: $6.11 $13.47

Grain prices are effective cash close on July 26. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.

To help assist agricultural workers in receiving state-of-the art equipment in farming communities throughout the state, the Minnesota Soybean Research & Promotion Council has joinedNationwide’s Grain Bin Safety advocacy efforts to unveil a nomination process for community members to recommend Minnesota first responders to receive an aluminum rescue tube and auger, accompanied by hands-on training at their respective location by experts at the National Education Center for Agricultural Safety.

The nomination window will remain open through Aug. 26. The form can be accessed via www.mnsoybean.org/soyrescue. Five grain entrapment rescue tubes and five augers will be donated, courtesy of the Minnesota soybean checkoff. Winning participants will be required to undergo hands-on training later this fall.

The grain tube is made of six panels, called “The Great Wal,” which slide into place around the victim. Once inserted, the tube halts the flow of grain and relieves the pressure on the trapped individual. One cubic foot for grain weighs 50 pounds; without the tube, grain can continue to collapse the victim as rescuers remove it.

The grain entrapment rescue auger, which will also accompany the donated rescue tube, quickly aids in the removal of grain away from the victim.

The highest rate of grain bin accidents occurs in January and June. Within just four seconds, an adult can sink to their knees in flowing grain, creating a scenario in which they’re unable to free themselves without help. In 20 seconds, a farmer can sink into the grain inside a bin and become entrapped.

In 2020, Minnesota reported more than 220 grain bin entrapments and three fatalities. As recently as June, a cooperative employee was trapped in a grain bin and died at the scene.

Since 2014, Nationwide has awarded more than 200 grain bin rescue tubes to first responders.

This article was submitted by the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association. v

Impressive dog helps out veterinarian

FARMHOUSE, from pg. 5

and wagon out to feed the cattle. Once through the just opened gate, his dog would sit in this access to freedom area. The steers would not venture pass this guard dog.

That is how he farmer fed the cattle and accomplished all his other chores without worrying about his cattle fleeing with the gate open. When the dog died, he froze the dog in a sitting position. Each day that winter, he simply set the dog in the opened gate while taking care of the cattle. It worked.

Another Neumann story involves my father-in-law.

One morning John Vander Schaaf called into the Sioux Vet Clinic requesting a veterinarian to come to the farm to treat a sick dairy cow.

When Doc got there he could not find a cow in the barn. The cows had already been turned out to the pasture. Now that is not a good thing. A veterinarian usually has a list of farmers wanting immediate attention, that he really doesn’t feel like waiting for the farmer to put the sick animal in the barn.

He went back to his truck, where he met Mr. Vander Schaaf. Doc told him that there were no cows in the barn.

Mr. Vander Schaaf assured that wasn’t a problem. His dog would simply go get the cow. He turned his attention to the collie. “Lassie, go get Josephine.” (I don’t know the cow’s name, but Josephine was one of my favorite cows when I milked.)

Lassie looked at him for a few second, then took off running. The two men walked back to the barn to open the door which led to the pasture. Soon Lassie returned with the one cow that Mr. Vander Schaaf had sent her after.

The fact that the dog would only bring the one cow needed impressed Doc Neumann immensely. It was one of the first stories he told about my father in law.

I think my grandchildren will enjoy growing up with their puppy.

Renae B. Vander Schaaf is an independent writer, author and speaker. Contact her at (605) 530-0017 or agripen@live.com. v

Soybean price direction dependent on weather

NYSTROM, from pg. 7

versus 21.57 mmt last year.

Weekly export activity finally saw a daily export sale flash for the first time since June 17. China purchased 5 million bushels of new crop soybeans which had been rumored for a week, but the amount announced was a slight disappointment. There was talk that China was also purchasing Brazilian soybeans this week. Weekly export sales for old crop were positive after three straight weeks of net cancelations. Old crop sales were 7.5 million bushels bringing total commitments to 2.189 billion bushels. This is down 4 percent from last year. While sales have slightly exceeded what the USDA’s export forecast is, the focus now is on shipments. With seven weeks of the marketing year left, shipments have been running short of what is needed. New crop sales were 9.3 million bushels to bring commitments to 518.3 million bushels versus 362.5 million bushels last year. China has purchased 294 million bushels of US new crop soybeans thus far compared to 150.6 million bushels last year.

OUTLOOK – Soybeans have another month to determine the final yield so the weather will continue to be the main feature of price direction, followed closely by the new crop demand picture. In the meantime, the market will be very keyed into every forecast and demand or lack thereof.

For the week, August soybeans fell 31 ½ cents to $14.34 ½ and November soybeans dropped 26 ½ cents to $13.15 ¾ per bushel.

Weekly price changes in September wheat for the week ended July 22, 2022: Chicago wheat down 17 ¾ cents at $7.59, Kansas City down 17 ¼ cents at $8.20 ¼, and Minneapolis plunged 35 ¾ cents to $8.71 per bushel. The spring wheat tour will be the week of July 25.

Phyllis Nystrom is a market analyst with CHS Hedging in St. Paul. v

For more news briefs, visit the “Nuts and Bolts” section at www.TheLandOnline.com

By RICHARD SIEMERS

The Land Correspondent

OLIVIA, Minn. — Rae Ann Bartz speaks with a calm and gentle voice. It is the same voice she uses with her horses and with the clients who come for therapy to her stable and arena outside of Olivia, Minn. To work with clients, her horse of choice is the Arabian.

“They are incredibly intelligent,” Bartz said. “They’re also a people horse. They like to connect to the person. I see that so much because I use them with therapy, and they really like to connect to the person they are with.”

The therapy focuses on developing a relationship with the horse.

“I’ve had some kids who’ve had trouble in school. [Something is going on in their lives] and the horse brings that out. It’s not me talking about what is going on. We generally take them out in the arena. The horse doesn’t have a halter on. We just ask them to see if they can walk up to the horse. If they’re angry, the horse will walk away. If they’re ready to connect, the horse will come to them.”

The horses aren’t sensitive only to the clients. If Bartz is exhibiting frustration with the day, the horse may walk away from her, too. The goal is to take the focus off one’s self and develop a relationship with the horse.

“The client learns to make a connection with the horse, get the horse to do a number of things without a lead rope,” Bartz said. It builds confidence when the horse responds. “It’s incredible to watch because there’s so much going on at once. You’re watching the horse, you’re watching the response of the client. I don’t talk to them a lot. I ask a question once in a while, like ‘What do you think the horse is thinking right now?’ Get them away from thinking about themselves.”

That’s why she likes the Arabian horse, because she finds it so sensitive to people. Bartz thinks that goes back to their development by the Bedouin tribes.

“The Bedouins prized their Arabian horse more than anything else,” Bartz said. “Their horses — particularly the mares — slept in the tent with them. They were their constant companion. They trusted the horses and the horses trusted them, and I think that’s where some of that has carried on in their relationship with people. They were bred to do that.”

Their ability to relate to an individual isn’t the only thing Bartz likes about the Arabian. They are an excellent show horse.

“They’re beauty is unmistakable,” she said.

Their classic look includes the dish face and a high set tail. The high set tail may have developed as a cooling mechanism for life on the desert, but it does add a touch of class.

Racing around on the desert, often long distances without water, has resulted in a breed that is justly famous for their endurance.

“They have incredible endurance,” Bartz said. “They are the number-one breed for endurance races. The Tevis Cup is usually won by an Arabian horse.”

The race is run over varied terrain in the Sierra Nevada mountains in California. According to the Tevis Cup website, the “Tevis Cup trophy is awarded to the person who completes the 100-mile one-day course in the shortest amount of time and whose horse is in sound condition and fit to continue.” Looking at the list of winners from its beginning in 1955, it is almost a solid string of Arabians, most of whom completed the 100 miles in under 15 hours. (Since there is some Arabian blood in every breed of light horse, they could claim to be part of every victory.)

Some sources say the Arabian breed is docile, but that is not the experience of everyone.

“So many people think that Arabians are spirited and crazy,” Bartz said. “It depends on how they’re handled. They do have a little bit more spirit and they’re a little more sensitive than some of the other breeds, so if they’re handled that way, they react that way. But I love the fact they are sensitive so that you don’t have to do so much with them to get what you want them to do.”

Bartz’s attraction to horses began as a child where they had horses on the farm. She grew up in 4-H showing horses. Her first up-close acquaintance with Arabians came when she moved to Willmar, Minn. in 1975 and started working with 4-H. One family whose daughters she helped had Arabians. She got to know the horse better in her farrier work.

“I was shoeing horses at the time and I had a client that had lots of Arabian horses,” she said. “I just fell in love with them, enjoyed shoeing and trimming and working with Arabians.” Today she is president of Minn-I-Kota Arabian Horse Association. “Minn-I-Kota is actually a very small club — probably 15 members; but we’re a dedicated club in trying to promote the horse,” she said. “On June 25 we are hosting a “Meet the Arabian Horse” at the Runnings store in Willmar, during Willmar Fests.” A similar event last year was very successful. They host the Minn-I-Kota Arabian and Open Horse Show in Willmar on July 10. Preceding that, on July 9, they host an All Breed Ranch Horse Show. “We offered that last year and it was very successful,” she said. “We had different breeds there — which is one thing I strongly believe in. We need to do things together with various breeds while at the same time promoting our own breed. This year we are going to do the same thing and we are adding a clinic on Rae Ann Bartz with her Arabian, Louie. This bred’s sensitivity to people is one of reason’s the ranch horse.” Bartz is drawn to these horses. Minn-I-Kota isn’t the only Arabian horse group in Minnesota. She said the Minnesota Arabian Horse Association is a much larger group, “one of the largest in the country,” around the metro area down into southeastern Minnesota. There is also a Northern Minnesota Arabian Horse Association. Bartz’s barn and large arena outside of Olivia houses her three horses, and she is boarding nine others — most of which are Arabians. One of the mares recently had a foal. At age 69, Bartz thinks about retirement. “Most people with horses are in the business because they love horses, not because they make a lot of money,” she said. Mostly, she is concerned where her therapy clients would go if she retired. Her work with the Association, coaching those who show horses, work with 4-H members on the county and state level, caring for a dozen horses, giving riding lessons, and her therapy clients keep her calendar full. Rae Ann Bartz loves horses — especially the Arabian; and she loves everything she does with horses; but she was thinking particularly of her therapy clients when she said, “It certainly has been a rewarding thing and I have enjoyed it over the years.” To learn more about her work, the Minn-I-Kota Arabian Horse Association and their Willmar show, contact Bartz, at (320) 979-3115 or raeann.bartz@ gmail.com. The Minn-I-Kota website is www.minnikotaarabians.com. The Minnesota Arabian Horse Association website is www.mnarabhorse.com or their Facebook page; and the Northern Minnesota Arabian Horse Association website is www.northernmaha.com or their Facebook page. v