Calendar of Events

Grain Outlook Crop tour confirms yield suspicions

Editor’s Note: Joe Lardy, CHS Hedging research analyst, is sitting in this week for Phyllis Nystrom, the regular “Grain Outlook” columnist.

The following marketing analysis is for the week ending Aug. 26.

CORN — Corn has been on a solid run lately. December corn settled higher in seven of the past eight sessions. Over the past week, December corn has gained 43 cents to close the week at $6.6425.

The real feature this week has been the ProFarmer crop tour that made its way through Midwest. Going into the tour, the thoughts were that the western JOE LARDY states would show poor results CHS Hedging inC. and the east would look ok. But St. Paul what would we see in Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota?

The actual results for the western states were pretty accurate with Nebraska and South Dakota showing large yield reductions. Indiana and Ohio were down from last year’s average but met expectations. Minnesota was the surprise to the upside with a much higher yield than last year at 190.39 bushels per acre and just barely missing out on the top result of the whole tour to Illinois’ 190.71 bu./acre.

Cash Grain Markets

corn/change* soybeans/change*

Stewartville $6.96 +.56 $14.66 +.81 Edgerton $7.52 +.71 $14.13 +.52 Jackson $7.82 +.61 $14.09 +.51 Hope $7.37 +.56 $14.26 +.51 Cannon Falls $6.96 +.65 $14.70 +.89 Sleepy Eye $7.27 +.66 $14.22 +.51 St. Cloud $6.87 +.54 $14.98 +.76 Madison $7.25 +.54 $14.03 +.47 Redwood Falls $7.24 +.53 $14.38 +.56 Fergus Falls $6.96 +.21 $13.87 +.12 Morris $6.82 +.37 $13.97 +.56 Tracy

$7.27 +.59 $14.07 +.51 Average: $7.20 $14.28 Year Ago Average: $5.89 $12.67

Grain prices are effective cash close on Aug. 30. *Cash grain price change represents a two-week period.

The tour confirmed there were good ear counts; but issues around pollination really robbed the crop of better potential. ProFarmer put their estimate of the total U.S. corn crop at 13.759 billion bushels with a yield of 168.1 bu./acre. That would be a very large reduction from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August estimates of 14.359 billion bushels and a yield of 175.4 bu./acre.

Inspection data this week met expectations, but was less than desired. Inspections had been well over a million tons — but has fallen under that mark the last three weeks. Ethanol production was below 1 million barrels for the second week in a row. Production hasn’t been below this mark since mid-May.

Outlook: Now it’s time to see how the corn crop matures. The forecast for the next couple weeks doesn’t look very helpful to the western areas, with really high temps in the plain and not much rain to go with it. We are only two weeks away from the very important September World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report and we should see lots of volatility until then.

SOYBEANS — A couple of big up days helped propel the bean market to a nice gain this week. November beans were able to gain 57.25 cents this week and close at $14.6125.

The ProFarmer tour saw some decent potential for the soybean crop. Even though the numbers were down slightly from last year, some of the big states were above the three-year average. Plus, if the crop can somehow grab some moisture away from Mother Nature, there is still some additional yield possible. ProFarmer issued their estimate for the U.S. crop at 4.535 billion bushels with a yield of 51.7 bu./acre. That would be right in line with the USDA’s August levels.

Soybean inspections were ok this week. We did see three more flash sales announced this week with two to China and one to unknown. One of the sales to China was for just over 500,000 tons.

We didn’t get good export sales data this week. The USDA implemented a new website and reporting system and it crashed and burned. No timeframe on when the data and system will be up and running properly.

Outlook: Keep an eye on the weather. There is hope for a little more improvement in the eastern areas, but the hot and dry forecasts are troublesome. Also, keep an eye on South America. Brazil can start planting soybeans in mid September. Conab has a new and massive estimate for the Brazilian bean crop at 156.3 million metric tons. That would be the largest the world has ever seen. v

Information in the above columns is the writer’s opinion. It is no way guaranteed and should not be interpreted as buy/sell advice. Futures trading always involves a certain degree of risk.

Monitoring soybean diseases is important for next year

As summer and the growing season wind down, our management window is closing. However, scouting your crops is still important to ensure informed management decisions. Soybean fields with white mold and sudden death syndrome are becoming quite apparent — even from a distance. By recording locations and spread of these issues a grower can tell whether disease management is being effective or if it is time to try something new. Here are some simple descriptions and management tools to consider when planning for next season.

White mold — White mold is identified by fluffy white growth on soybean stems. Initial symptoms develop from R3 to R6 as gray to white lesions at the nodes, which is followed by white fluffy mold covering the infected area. Black sclerotia soon develop and are visible within the mold on the stem lesions and inside the stem as the plant approaches death.

Pods affected by white mold are typically smaller, lighter, and fuzzy. The fungus may survive in the soil for several years, making management of this disease a long term issue. Management for white mold includes selecting varieties with known resistance to white mold, rotation to a non-host crop, no-tillage, late planting, wide row widths, and lower plant populations.

Tradeoffs for using these practices include reduced weed management efficiency and reduced yield potential. However, if white mold issues are great enough, these tradeoffs may be worth the risk.

Many broadleaf weeds are hosts for white mold and some herbicides may help suppress the fungus. For white mold issues that do not respond to the above options, foliar fungicides and biological options may need to be considered.

Sudden death syndrome — SDS is identified by scattered interveinal yellow chlorotic blotches which eventually progress into large irregular patches. These patches typically are brown lesions surrounded by yellow chlorotic tissue. Eventually leaves may detach from the petioles, leaving the petioles attached.

Brown stem rot and SDS may be confused with each other as leaf damage can look quite similar. However, SDS will also cause root rot and the pith of the stem will remain white; where brown stem rot will cause the pith to turn brown.

Management of SDS includes planting soybean varieties that are resistant to SDS and soybean cyst nematode, reducing excessive soil moisture with drainage, minimizing compaction, crop rotation, and planting into warmer soils.

This article was submitted by Katie Drewitz, University of Minnesota Extension. v