20 minute read
Mielke Market Weekly
by The Land
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MIELKE MARKET WEEKLY
By Lee Mielke
See MIELKE, pg. 14 HIGH COMFORT MAT
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This column was written for the marketing week ending Sept. 23.
First indications are that U.S. milk production saw a pretty good jump in August, thanks to big increases in output per cow and cow numbers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest data News and information for Minnesota and Northern Iowa dairy producers shows output at 19.02 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from August 2021. The highest since August 2021, up 8,000 from 24-state total came in at 18.2 billion July numbers which were revised up 3,000 pounds, up 1.7 percent. head. The August herd was only down It is only the second monthly increase since October 2021, but is measured 11,000 head from July 2021 but is up 60,000 head from January. against last year’s small 0.6 percent gain from Output per cow averaged 2,018 pounds, up 34 August 2020. USDA has also lowered its estimates pounds or 1.7 percent from August 2021. July outin the recent World Agricultural Supply and put per cow was revised up five pounds, to 2,038 Demand Estimates report. However, revisions pounds. raised the 50-state July estimate 53 million pounds to 19.2 billion, up 0.5 percent from 2021 instead of the 0.2 percent increase originally reported. StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski, speaking in the Sept. 26 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast, said the take away from the report is “In the midst of the high
But the 1.6 percent increase should not be costs of operating a dairy today, dairy farmers have ignored. August cow numbers totaled 9.427 million, been fairly resilient.” He said there was a “knee-jerk reaction” in the futures market; but “Does it really change my world view of milk supply, both in the U.S. and globally, and the answer is no. There’s still a mountain of challenges dairy farmers face. The milk supply is still under duress and one report showing output above a year ago, while it has a bearish tone, I don’t think it’s much to worry about.” Demand is still in the driver’s seat, Kurzawski said, and the United States is in a good position to take market share from Europe over the next few months. Add that to holiday demand here at home, and market prices should stay strong — even if but-
MIELKE, from pg. 13
ter comes down from its $3 high. n
The latest Margin Watch from Chicago-based Commodity and Ingredient Hedging LLC., says, “Dairy margins improved over the first half of September on stronger milk prices while feed input costs were largely steady but remain firm.”
The Margin Watch detailed the August Milk Production report, stating, “Although the U.S. dairy herd appears to be stabilizing and showing modest growth, tight margins and labor conditions, high input costs, limited processing capacity and increased regulations will deter significant expansion. Strength in dairy product exports is helping to support milk prices, as U.S. prices remain competitive on the world market despite strength in the U.S. dollar. U.S. dairy exports in July rose to 467.4 million pounds, up 4.5 percent from last year with cheese, butter and whey all increasing export volumes compared to 2021.”
The Margin Watch cited crop details from the September WASDE which “confirmed lower yield and production forecasts for corn and soybeans. Both harvested area and yield projections were lowered for corn and soybeans, reducing the production forecasts by 415 million and 152 million bushels, respectively, from August. A hot, dry finish to the summer along with an ongoing drop in crop condition ratings is helping to retain risk premium in the market ahead of harvest, particularly for the soy complex.”
Dairy cow culling took a jump in August. An estimated 266,100 head were sent to slaughter under federal inspection, according to the latest Livestock Slaughter report, up 36,000 head from July and 4,700 or 1.8 percent above August 2021.
Dairy culling has been tracking below last year’s level — so expansion is likely occurring, according to StoneX. “Producer margins have gotten much tighter in recent months so we will have to see if the increase in production is enough to keep cows in the herd or will
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they resort to the cull market.” n
Meanwhile, the USDA’s latest Dairy Outlook, issued Sept. 16, stated, “The 2023 forecast for the average number of milk cows was lowered by 20,000 head to 9.415 million, as the rate of growth in cow numbers is expected to slow in 2023. The 2023 forecast for milk per cow remained at 24,300 pounds.
U.S. butter and cheese stocks fell in August as consumers chewed through the inventory. The USDA’s latest Cold Storage report shows the Aug. 31 butter inventory at 282.6 million pounds, down 32.5 million pounds or 10.3 percent from July, and down a hefty 80.1 million pounds or 22.1 percent below a year ago, the 11th consecutive month stocks were below the previous year.
American-type cheese stocks fell to 842.4 million pounds, down 17.6 million pounds or 2.1 percent from July, but were 15.3 million or 1.8 percent above a year ago.
The “other” cheese category fell to 620.3 million pounds, down 19.1 million or 3 percent from July, but had 37 million pounds or 6.3 percent more than a year ago.
The total cheese inventory added up to 1.48 billion pounds (the lowest since April but a record high for August) according to the Daily Dairy Report. It was down 38 million pounds or 2.5 percent from July, but still 51 million or 3.6 percent above a year ago. n
Recovery continued in the Sept. 20 Global Dairy Trade auction which saw the weighted average rise 2 percent, following the 4.9 percent jump on Sept. 6, reversing five consecutive declines. Traders brought 57.6 million pounds of product to market, down from 59.8 million on Sept. 6, and the average metric ton price inched up to $4,072 U.S., up from $4,007.
Anhydrous milkfat led the way, up 4 percent after leading the gains last time with a 13.9 percent rise. Butter inched 0.2 percent lower after a 3.3 percent rise. Whole milk powder was up 3.7 percent following a 5.1 percent gain, and GDT cheddar was up 2.1 percent after rising 1 percent. Skim milk powder was down 0.7 percent following a 1.5 percent rise in the last event.
StoneX says the GDT 80 percent butterfat butter price equates to $2.37 per pound U.S., virtually unchanged from the last event, and compares to Chicago Mercantile Exchange butter which closed Sept. 23 at a pricey $3.1325. GDT cheddar, at $2.3346, was up 4.6 cents, and compares to Sept. 23’s CME block cheddar at a bargain $1.96. GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.6089 per pound, down from $1.6215, and whole milk powder averaged $1.6931 per pound, up from $1.6374. CME Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Sept. 23 at $1.58 per pound.
StoneX adds, “Overall concerns about New Zealand milk production likely drove the stronger results. North Asia market share, which includes China, bounced back from abysmal levels at the previous event. North Asia’s share of purchases was down slightly from last year, but volume was up. South East Asia lost share compared to the last event, but was similar to last year. Middle East share was up, Africa’s was down,” says Nate Donnay, Director of Dairy Market Insight. n
Speaking of China, August dairy imports sadly trailed year-ago percentages. Whole milk powder totaled 66 million pounds, down 59.5 percent from August 2021, though year to date is only down 15.8 percent. New Zealand felt that the most.
Skim milk powder imports amounted to 72.7 million pounds, down 2.4 percent and down 24.8 percent yearto-date.
Dry whey imports were up 1.2 percent, totaling 138.5 million pounds, and broke a 10-month streak of weakness, according to HighGround Dairy, but whey imports are down 30 percent year-to-date. HighGround Dairy says August was the largest monthly volume from the United States of any month since May 2018, with a 53 percent market share vs. 40 percent a year ago.
Butter imports were also up, showing a 32 percent rise, but only totaled 15.9 million pounds. Cheese totaled 31.1 million pounds, down 10 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date down 19.5 percent. n
See MIELKE, pg. 19
By KRISTIN KVENO This is the second year The Land Staff Writer they have grown popcorn. Sometimes the best plans pop up when spending time with friends. That’s precisely what happened to lifelong pals Zach Schumacher and Isaac Fest. “Isaac always has ideas,” Schumacher said. It was on a trip to Okoboji a few years They planted two acres of popcorn this spring. “We did put it all on the heavier ground this year. We thought it looked really good today,” Fest said. They grow butterfly-style popcorn that offers a light and crispy texture. ago that Fest first came up “We try and sell it to the with the popcorn-growing schools for concessions,” business venture. Schumacher said. The Schumacher and Fest have been friends since they were in daycare together in Heron Lake, Minn. Both were raised on farms. They wanted to start a business that utilized their Heron Lake-Okabena, Fulda, Worthington school districts and Minnesota West Community and Technical College all purchase Two Dudes Popcorn for their concession stands. experience in growing crops. The popcorn currently “I grew up on a strawberry farm and tree nursery. We have some row-crop farming,” Schumacher said. He graduated high school in 2014 comes in 50-pound and twopound bags, as well as an eight-ounce size packaged with two ounces of coconut oil for popping. and went to the University of The popcorn is sold at Fest’s wife Minnesota. He lives in Heron Lake Kailey’s shop, Hers & Mine with his wife, Logan and son, Beau Boutique in Worthington and on and remains part of the family their website. It is also sold at a business, Schumacher’s Nursery & couple of other local area shops. Berry Farm. “I think we’re going to keep going
Fest had an interest in agriculture and expand each year,” Schumacher which began on the family farm. said. The demand is there, with After graduating from Heron Lake- other schools and organizations Okabena High School in 2015, he interested in buying popcorn from went to South Dakota State Two Dudes. They are excited to roll University, where he received his out a new product geared towards undergraduate degree in agronomy. kids: the popcorn still on the cob. He came back to the area, now You put the cob in the microwave resides in Worthington, Minn. with and have the popcorn ready to eat his wife, Kailey, and has a seed busi- in just a few minutes. ness, farms with his dad and works part-time at his father-in-law’s drainage tile company. The success they have found thus far has been humbling. “The community support and the power of
Both guys have experience farm- social media,” Fest said. “Not too ing. They thought field corn and many people don’t like popcorn.” popcorn were similar in how to grow it, but they were wrong. “It was a challenge to figure out how to do it.” They learned that you have to plant popcorn earlier and harvest later than field corn. They used a drill to plant. “Not ideal,” Schumacher said. The guys utilize The best part of being in the popcorn business? “Hanging out with friends,” Schumacher said. “Just the chatter that was created around us. It’s cool when everyone’s eating your popcorn,” Fest said. family equipment for planting and harvest, so they Because Fest and Schumacher have day jobs, fithave to do both when the equipment is available. ting in time to be popcorn growers, packagers and “A lot of manual labor goes into growing popcorn. We also bag it all ourselves,” Schumacher said. marketers get tricky. That means they work on the popcorn business in the evenings and on weekends. “Popcorn is really picky with moisture,” Fest said. He found a good variety out of Indiana which seems perfect for southern Minnesota’s growing climate. Popcorn harvest is expected at the end of October this year. The guys are excited to see what the yields will be. “We should have a good crop,” Fest said. The average for popcorn is about half the yield of field
Photos submitted Isaac Fest (left) and Zach Schumacher Two Dudes hope the October harvest will be in the neighborhood of 67 pounds of popcorn per bushel, or 6,700 pounds per acre. corn. If they could average 67 pounds of popcorn per bushel, that would be 6,700 pounds per acre, which would be ideal.
After it’s harvested, it’s cleaned. Fest and Schumacher recheck the kernels for any remaining debris before its bagged. Though it can be a long, tedious process, perfection takes time. That’s no different when you’re producing popcorn.
The name Two Dudes Popcorn was Fest’s wife, Kailey’s idea; it’s simple and straightforward. Schumacher and Fest loved the name immediately. From friends to business partners, things are popping for Fest and Schumacher. Not to sound too corny, but Two Dudes Popcorn is doing a-maize-ingly well. v
PUMPKINS, from pg. 11
rotate that one to a different spot.
Sam began with seed from Jung Seed, but for his main plot he purchases seed from a commercial pumpkin seed company. He buys mostly for orange pumpkins, but also white — which has become a popular decorating pumpkin and sold out last year. He also plants the colored pumpkins decorators like, such as pink, blue, green, striped, and warty-skinned varieties.
The commercial seed company requires purchase of a minimum quantity, which he can meet because he orders a larger number of seeds than he expects to use. (He has saved some seed in case he ran out, but has not needed it.)
“The goal is to have a lot of pumpkins left at the end of the year,” he said, “more than you want to sell because those last weekends you don’t want it to look bad out there.”
He wants the people who come the last weekend to have as good of an experience as those who come earlier. The leftovers don’t go to waste. A farmer up the road comes to load his huge manure spreader and spread the extras on his fields for compost. Ripley gives them to the farmer in what he calls a “win-win” situation: the farmer gets compost and he gets the patch cleared off for next year.
A promoter as well as a business- Sam Ripley man, Ripley has solicited financial support from area businesses. He’s looking forward to another busy season. Almost 5,000 people came last year. His schedule for school tours is full, and he has a scheduled visit by a home bringing folks in wheelchairs. Hospitality is part of his entrepreneurship.
“I liked the whole idea of doing this,” he said. “I wanted [a business] I could have all these extra activities with.”
With the pumpkin picking (some folks pick wheelbarrows full for decorating, he said), there is a field full of activities for kids and adults, a petting zoo, concession stand, gift shop, hayrides, and this year, to honor veterans, a flyover by WWII planes from Fagen Fighters in Granite Falls. (The flyover was not scheduled when this story was written. Check his Facebook page.)
It’s a lot of work, a lot of coordinating, a lot of bringing an idea to reality, and Sam Ripley seems to be having a good time. In a sense, it’s on-the-job training.
“I’m getting a lot of first-hand experience with the business world,” he said.
Sam’s Pumpkin Patch is open Saturdays and Sundays (and Thursday/Friday during MEA weekend) through Oct. 30 — Saturdays 10 a.m. – 5 p.m., Sundays noon – 5 p.m. A $5 admission fee for age two and up includes all activities (except Gemstone Mining and Laser Tag).
Sam’s Pumpkin Patch is at 4425 186th Street, just south of Montevideo.
Check SamPumpkinPatch on Facebook, or the website samspumpkinpatch.weebly.com. v
Deglers’ goal is to make the farm an educational experience
DEGLER, from pg. 12
sawmill are The University of Minnesota honeybee boxes, which have been at the farm for six to seven years. “They (U of M) were looking for places in the metro,” Todd said. The bees are another talking point in the hayride, explaining that a farm is a great place for bees to inhabit as there are plenty of pollinating options.
Just beyond the barn, you’ll find the three-acre corn maze. A new design is created each year. “We math teachers map out our grids,” Ellen said. Once the design is mapped out, it takes dedication all growing season to keep the design in the field free of corn and weeds.
New this year is a tube slide. Riders go down while sitting on a gunny sack. The slide is on the hillside overlooking the farm; the view is impressive, and the ride down is exhilarating.
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The pumpkin patch is across the street from the farm on two and a half acres. A local youth group picks the pumpkins and helps load them on the trailer for the ride over the farm, where they’re displayed for visitors to choose just the right one. This year’s pumpkin crop is impressive. The lack of rainfall didn’t seem to slow the pumpkins down. “Pumpkins like drier weather,” Gayle said. Creating an on-farm experience for visitors while maintaining a working farm is no easy task. However, ingenuity, hard work and a dedication to preserving agriculture in Chanhassen for not only the Deglers, but for their community, is the goal now and for future generations. With the Degler family raising the fifth generation, the hope is that it continues to be a family-run farm steeped in history and an unending passion for sharing that history with visitors. “Our niche is the small-town farm feel. We’re rooted in education and promoting agriculture,” Todd said.
“We have an old gravity box with a basketball hoop The Degler Farm is open on weekends through Oct. on it,” Todd said. Shooting hoops gets the conversa- 30. For more information, visit https://deglerfarm. tion going with the visitors about how a gravity box business.site/. v works.
Photo submitted Just beyond the barn, you’ll find the three-acre corn maze. A new design is created each year.
