Dairy exports expected to remain strong through May

6.1 million pounds, and was 600,000 pounds or 1.5 percent below that of a year ago.

Thankfully, U.S. dairy exports remain strong. January cheese climbed to 75 million pounds, up 15.6 percent from January 2022, and an all-time high for the month, according to HighGround Dairy. Lots of it was shipped to Mexico and “kicked off the calendar year at a record pace,” says HighGround Dairy. Shipments fell to South Korea, the second-largest destination, but strengthened to Japan, Bahrain, and Australia “helping offset losses elsewhere.”

HighGround Dairy adds that cheddar sales totaled 16.7 million pounds. This is up 37.5 percent — despite dis- counted European cheese — driven by larger sales to Japan and Australia.

Nonfat dry milk exports totaled 150.4 million pounds, up 14.8 percent. Mexico’s market share reached 53.5 percent — the highest since August 2019. Says HighGround Dairy, “Maintaining similar strong volumes throughout second half 2022, the United States reported the strongest January shipments to Mexico on record,” with notable gains made to Thailand and Colombia.

“Total dairy exports to China expanded over prior year for the eighth consecutive month,” says HighGround Dairy, “which also marked the third month in a row that achieved monthly highs. Much of the growth continues in the form of dry whey, which totaled 29 million pounds, up 8.6 percent from a year ago.

Some are skeptical U.S. dairy exports will be able to remain that strong in 2023. StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski is not one of them.

Speaking in the March 13 “Dairy Radio Now broadcast,” he said he’s seeing strong cheese exports out into April and May so they won’t “shrivel up and die.”

“We’re a bigger player in the world market than we’ve ever been,” Kurzawski said. “I think that’s going to continue, but it does ebb and flow.”

He also said current beef prices are a powerful incentive for dairy farmers to “make some decisions” regarding their operations for this year.

In other trade news, the Global Dairy Trade auction is limping again.

The March 7 weighted average slipped 0.7 percent after dropping 1.5 percent on Feb. 21, and jumping 3.2 percent on Feb. 7. Traders brought 59 million pounds of product to market, down from 67.7 million on Feb. 21, and the average metric ton price slipped to $3,403 U.S., down from $3,414 on Feb. 21.

GDT cheddar led the declines, plunging 10.2 percent after rising 1.5 percent on Feb. 21. Buttermilk powder was down 4.5 percent. Anhydrous milkfat was down 1.8 percent following a 2.6 percent drop on Feb. 21, and butter was off 0.3 percent after rising 3.8 percent. Lactose inched 0.3 percent higher. Whole milk powder was up 0.2 percent following a 2 percent drop on Feb. 21; but skim milk powder was