Grain Outlook Little optimism for corn market

The following marketing analysis is for the week ending March 10.

CORN — Corn began the week on a sour note which carried throughout the week with losses mounting in post-World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates trading. May corn dipped to seven-month lows and closed lower for four straight sessions before posting a bounce on March 10.

Here’s the recap from the March 8 WASDE report: U.S. ending stocks were increased 75 million bushels to 1.342 billion bushels by slashing exports by an identical amount. This was a slightly larger cut than expected with the average ending stocks trade guess at 1.308 billion bushels. This is the second-lowest stocks number in the last nine years. The stocks-to-use ratio grew from 9.1 to 9.6 percent. The average farm price was lowered a dime to $6.60 per bushel.

World corn ending stocks were 296.46 million metric tons compared to the average estimate of 293.17 mmt and last month’s 295.28 mmt forecast. Brazil’s corn production was unchanged this month at 125 mmt which is up 9 mmt from last year; but their exports, at 50 mmt (1.968 billion bushels), were only up 1.5 mmt from last year. If accurate, Brazil’s exports this year would outpace U.S. exports of 1.85 billion bushels. The average trade guess was 124.86 mmt. For Argentina, their corn production was chopped by 7 mmt from last month to 40 mmt which is down 10.9 mmt from last year and the smallest in seven years. Argentina’s corn exports were lowered by 7 mmt to 28 mmt. China’s corn imports were unchanged at 18 mmt.

The day after the WASDE report, the Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina’s corn crop by 7.5 mmt to 35 mmt. The exchange indicated the numbers could go even lower, saying “there are no weather conditions on the horizon which allow us to offer an estimated minimum for the harvest.” Argentina’s corn rating was down 1 percent at 5 percent good/ excellent and compared to 27 percent good/excellent last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut their Argentine corn estimate to 37.5 mmt from 41 mmt previously. Conab raised its Brazilian corn production outlook by 1 mmt to a record 124.7 mmt and increased the export forecast by 1 mmt to 48 mmt.