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This is a Map of Hurricane Earl
Hurricane Earl targets Maritimes
Environment Canada has ramped up its weather advisories as the weakening Hurricane Earl remains on course for the Maritimes. On Friday afternoon, tropical storm warnings were extended to all of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton, Prince Edward Island, ﾃ四es-de-la-Madeleine and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick, including Moncton and southeast New Brunswick. Tropical storm watches have also been extended to Kent County in New Brunswick, including Kouchibouguac National Park.
P.O.V. What are you doing to prepare for Hurricane Earl? Let us know. Hurricane watches remain in effect for Lunenburg, Queens, Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia, as well as Halifax and Halifax County. Earl weakened to a Category 1 storm Friday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h. At 3 p.m. AT, the storm was about 465 kilometres south-southwest of Cape Cod and moving north-northeast at 33 km/h. Gusts to 130 km/h are possible for the Maritimes, according to Environment Canada. Earl is expected to hit the Maritimes on Saturday somewhere between southwest Nova Scotia and New Brunswick's Bay of Fundy coast.
Rainbow Haven Beach near Halifax Friday shows the first hints of Hurricane Earl, which is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain Saturday. (CBC) Chris Fogarty, program manager of the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said Earl was tracking slightly eastward, making Nova Scotia's Digby Neck area the closest approach zone. Landfall is expected between 5 a.m. and 1 p.m.
He said intense winds are expected in mainland Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and possibly southeastern New Brunswick. "When you get hurricane-force wind gusts this time of year with the trees in full foliage, you will inevitably get not just branches breaking but limbs and some trees would come down," Fogarty told CBC News early Friday. A midday update from Environment Canada also warned of possible damage to signage, roofing materials or building siding. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and damage, but the storm's arrival time may be near low tide, the update said. [an error occurred while processing this directive] The worst-hit areas could see sustained winds of 80 kilometres an hour and gusts of 120 to 130 km/h, Fogarty said. Environment Canada said most parts of mainland Nova Scotia and southeastern New Brunswick could see 50 to 70 millimetres of rain. And that rain could fall quickly: some areas may see as much as 25 mm fall in just one hour. Big waves and pounding surf are expected along south-facing coastlines, but the greatest threat of storm surge is anticipated in southwest Nova Scotia and the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, including the Northumberland Strait. Bill Lawlor, director of disaster management for the Canadian Red Cross in the Atlantic region, said the organization decided to wait to see the impact of Earl before it mobilizes its volunteers. "We've been meeting each and every day over the last several days trying to figure out should we pre-mobilize, pre-position some of our materials," Lawlor said. "And it would just be throwing a dart at a board trying to figure out where that would be." He said the Red Cross can reach any community in the Atlantic region within hours. Fogarty said what is impressive about Earl is its size. The size plus the warm air and waters in the Maritimes mean that keeping concerns high about hurricane-force winds is "the responsible approach."
Tropical Cyclone Information Statements WOCN31 CWHX 032100 Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT At 6.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 38.2 N and longitude 71.8 W... About 205 nautical miles or 375 km south-southwest of Cape Cod. Earl is moving towards the north northeast at 18 knots... 34 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 70 knots... 130 Km/h and central pressure at 961 MB. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. End fogarty/borgel
WOCN31 CWHX 031800 Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010. Large hurricane Earl heading toward the Maritimes. The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT 1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 37.5 N And longitude 72.5 W... About 250 nautical miles or 465 km South southwest of Cape Cod. Maximum sustained winds are Estimated at 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 961 MB. Earl is moving north northeast at 18 knots... 33 km/h. 2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength Date Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06
time ADT 3.00 PM 9.00 PM 3.00 AM 9.00 AM 3.00 PM 9.00 PM 3.00 AM 9.00 AM 3.00 PM 9.00 PM 3.00 AM 9.00 AM 3.00 PM
lat
lon
37.5N 40.4N 42.0N 43.9N 46.4N 48.7N 51.1N 53.1N 54.6N 56.0N 57.1N 58.4N 59.3N
72.5W 70.1W 68.5W 66.6W 64.1W 62.4W 61.1W 60.1W 59.1W 58.3W 57.9W 57.8W 58.7W
MSLP MB 961 962 965 972 976 980 981 983 985 986 987 988 990
Max wind kts kmh 70 130 70 130 70 130 65 120 transitioning 60 111 transitioning 55 102 post-tropical 55 102 post-tropical 50 93 post-tropical 45 83 post-tropical 45 83 post-tropical 40 74 post-tropical 35 65 post-tropical 35 65 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane watches remain in effect for Halifax..Lunenburg..Queens.. Shelburne..Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia. In addition tropical storm warnings are now in effect for all of mainland Nova Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la Madeleine and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick including Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick. Tropical storm watches have been extended to Kent County in New Brunswick including Kouchibouguac National Park. These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power Failures. There could also be some damage to signage..Roofing materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a concern which could exacerbate these impacts. Rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the region with either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates. The uncertainty in the timing of the storm's arrival is about plus Or minus 4 hours. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to Some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure..Although the tides are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide. 4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane warnings now posted for Lurcher and Browns Bank. For the Maritime marine district.. Storms or gales issued for remianing waters except Laurentian fan and the western half of Anticosti. Over the Newfoundland marine district..Gale warnings have been Posted for most western waters. With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be Expected primarily along south and southeast-facing coastlines. The threat of storm surge flooding is not great for regions around the Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge Threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia..And the southern gulf Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait 5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists A. Analysis Goes and microwave imagery indicates increasing assymetry in Earl with some evidence of drier air wrapping into its southern flank. However it is developing in increasingly large wind field. A 1400Z ascat scan shows gales over 200 NM in the southeast quadrant.
Observational data show this large wind field as well. B. Prognostic Despite Earl's Max winds weakening to cat 1 intensity earlier Today..As previously mentioned indications are that Earl's wind Field is expanding. Even though Earl will likely be a marginal category 1 hurricane at landfall, its wind field will be spread over a greater area. Also the abnormally hot and humid airmass over the Maritimes will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical character. Water temperatures ahead of Earl are above normal by 2 to 4 degrees and have been persistently warm during the latter part of August. These two factors come into play in the intensity of winds reaching Nova Scotia. The approaching trough and developing upper low over the Great Lakes remains a significant factor in Earl's track. C. Public weather Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop as the storm moves toward the Maritimes. Heaviest rain will likely move toward The front and left side of the storm with the highest winds concentrated to the right of the storm track. Some computer Models show a band of rain extending east of the storm into Newfoundland as Earl nears..Similar to a warm front development. Regarding rainfall potential..For a storm of this nature..2500 divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to 40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with The output of latest dynamical models. D. Marine weather Wave models plus forecaster experience show that 10 metre or more seas along the southeast flank of Earl is reasonable. Predicted wind radii (NM) Time gales Ne se sw nw 03/18Z 200 220 150 150 04/00Z 200 200 150 140 04/06Z 210 210 150 130 04/12Z 210 210 150 120 04/18Z 220 220 160 110 05/00Z 240 240 210 100 05/06Z 270 300 300 100 05/12Z 300 300 300 100 05/18Z 300 300 300 120 06/00Z 300 300 300 150 06/06Z 270 270 270 180 06/12Z 240 220 220 200 06/18Z 220 220 220 200
ne 100 100 100 100 100 90 60 40 0 0 0 0 0
storms se sw nw 110 100 100 110 100 90 110 90 80 120 75 70 140 60 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 60 40 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ne 60 60 50 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
hurricane se sw nw 60 60 45 60 50 40 50 35 25 40 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel
WOCN31 CWHX 031500 Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 12.00 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT At 12.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 36.8 N and longitude 73.1 W... About 150 nautical miles or 280 km northeast of Cape Hatteras. Earl is moving towards the north northeast at 18 knots... 33 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 75 knots... 140 Km/h and central pressure at 961 MB. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. Hurricane watches are posted for portions of Nova Scotia from Digby down to Yarmouth and up to Halifax county and areas inland for the possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts (120 to 130 km/h). Gusts of this speed would cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That would result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There would also be some damage to signage ..Roofing materials and building cladding. Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and Damage to infrastructure..Although the tides are running lowe (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide. End borgel/fogarty
WOCN31 CWHX 031200 Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM ADT Friday 03 September 2010. .. Earl now east of Cape Hatteras..Heading for the Maritimes On Saturday.. The next statement will be issued by 12.00 PM ADT 1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 36.2 N
And longitude 73.6 W... About 110 nautical miles or 205 km East northeast of Cape Hatteras . Maximum sustained winds are Estimated at 90 knots... 167 km/h... And central pressure at 955 MB. Earl is moving north northeast at 20 knots... 37 km/h. 2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength Date Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06
time ADT 9.00 AM 3.00 PM 9.00 PM 3.00 AM 9.00 AM 3.00 PM 9.00 PM 3.00 AM 9.00 AM 3.00 PM 9.00 PM 3.00 AM 9.00 AM 3.00 PM 9.00 PM
lat
lon
36.2N 37.9N 40.4N 42.0N 43.9N 46.4N 48.7N 51.1N 53.1N 54.6N 56.0N 57.1N 58.4N 59.3N 59.8N
73.6W 72.2W 70.1W 68.5W 66.6W 64.1W 62.4W 61.1W 60.1W 59.1W 58.3W 57.9W 57.8W 58.7W 59.6W
MSLP MB 955 956 957 960 968 972 975 980 983 985 986 987 988 990 992
Max wind kts kmh 90 167 90 167 90 167 80 148 70 130 transitioning 65 120 transitioning 60 111 post-tropical 55 102 post-tropical 50 93 post-tropical 45 83 post-tropical 45 83 post-tropical 40 74 post-tropical 35 65 post-tropical 35 65 post-tropical 35 65 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane watches are in effect for Halifax..Lunenburg..Queens.. Shelburne..Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia. On top of these watches... Tropical storm warnings have been posted for most areas of mainland Nova Scotia and all of Prince Edward Island. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the remainder of Mainland Nova Scotia.. Cape Breton Island.. Southeast new Brunswick.. And iles de la Madeleine. These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding Public wind warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. A les suites wind warning has been posted for the western Half of Cape Breton Island. Rainfall warnings for amounts from 50 to 70 mm are posted for Most parts of mainland Nova Scotia and Southeastern New Brunswick. The uncertainty in our timing is about plus or minus 6 hours. We Err on the side of caution hence our decision to issue tropical warnings early this morning. Later today we will determine where Hurricane warnings will be placed..If required. If hurricane Warnings are issued.. Then our forecast wind gusts will be around 130 km/h for the affected regions.
The public should remain tuned in for updated forecasts every 6 hours. 4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary Hurricane warnings now posted for Lurcher and Browns Bank. For the maritime marine district.. Storms or gales issued For remianing waters except Laurentian fan and the western Half of Anticosti. Over the Newfoundland marine district.. Gale warnings have been posted for most western waters. With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be Expected primarily along south and southeast-facing coastlines. The threat of storm surge flooding is not great for regions around the Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge Threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia..And the southern gulf Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait 5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists A. Analysis Goes and microwave imagery shows an eyeless Earl showing little obvious signs of weakening. Ascat scans and observational data are indicating Earl has a large wind radii. B. Prognostic Numerical model guidance presents a cluster of solutions Centred on Nova Scotia. So no change in our prognosis Is presented. Despite Earl weakening to a cat 2 last night.. As previously mentioned indications are that Earl's wind field is expanding. Also the abnormally hot and humid airmass over the Maritimes Will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical character. Water temperatures ahead of Earl are above normal by 2 to 4 degrees and have been persistently warm during the latter part of August. These two factors come into play in our forecast of intensity Earl. The approaching trough and developing upper low over the Great Lakes will be a significant factor in Earl's track. C. Public weather Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop as the storm moves toward the Maritimes. Heaviest rain will likely move toward The front and left side of the storm with the highest winds concentrated to the right of the storm track. Some computer Models show a band of rain extending east of the storm into Newfoundland as Earl nears..Similar to a warm front development. Regarding rainfall potential..For a storm of this nature..2500 divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to
40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with The output of latest dynamical models. Some rainfall warnings have been posted this morning based on the Traditional 50 mm in 24 hours criteria. Through the day.. Further assessments will be made on where to place additonal Rainfall warnings based on the new and additional criteria Of 25 mm/hr.
D. Marine weather Trapped fetch models and other numerical models plus forecaster experience show that 10 metre or more seas along the southeast flank of Earl is reasonable. Predicted wind radii (NM) Time gales Ne se sw nw 03/12Z 180 180 120 150 03/18Z 180 180 130 150 04/00Z 200 200 140 140 04/06Z 210 210 140 130 04/12Z 210 210 140 120 04/18Z 220 220 160 110 05/00Z 240 240 210 100 05/06Z 270 330 300 75 05/12Z 300 420 480 60 05/18Z 330 420 480 60 06/00Z 360 420 480 90 06/06Z 390 420 480 210 06/12Z 420 420 480 300 06/18Z 420 420 420 420 07/00Z 420 420 420 420
ne 100 100 100 100 100 100 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
storms se sw nw 110 100 100 110 100 100 110 100 90 110 90 80 120 75 70 140 60 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 60 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End campbell/fogarty/borgel
Warnings Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County 3:57 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010 Tropical storm warning for Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County issued
ne 60 60 60 60 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
hurricane se sw nw 60 60 45 60 60 45 60 50 40 60 35 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Winds gusts over portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will likely reach or exceed 100 km/h. Over the remainder of the province winds gusting to at least 90 km/h are likely. A tropical storm warning means that sustained gales...Winds of 63 km/h or more...Are expected in the specified areas within 24 hours. By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall. At noon ADT the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 280 kilometres northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and is moving north northeast at 33 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning. It is likely that portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h. Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...The Bay of Fundy...And portions of the Gulf of St Lawrence wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h. Gusts of this speed could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage..Roofing materials and building cladding. Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick...Prince Edward Island and mainland Nova Scotia being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour which could lead to localized flooding and possible road washouts. Higher than normal water levels are possible along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tidal cycle is not extreme..Severe storm surge impacts are not as likely as they would be otherwise. However high waves and pounding surf can be expected along south and southeast facing coastlines around portions of the Maritimes with the arrival of Earl. Wave impacts at the coast could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure. Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information. Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County 3:57 PM ADT Friday 03 September 2010 Wind warning for Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County issued Strong winds with gusts between 90 and a 110 km/h are possible with Earl. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. At noon ADT the centre of hurricane Earl was located about 280 kilometres northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and is moving north northeast at 33 km/h. On its current track Earl is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Western Nova Scotia or the Fundy coast of New Brunswick Saturday morning. It is likely that portions of Southwestern Nova Scotia will have wind gusts reaching or exceeding 100 km/h. Elsewhere along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia...The Bay of Fundy...And portions of the Gulf of St Lawrence wind gusts will likely reach 90 km/h. Gusts of this speed could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power failures. There could also be some damage to signage..Roofing materials and building cladding.
Heavy rain...Amounting to 40 to 70 millimetres will likely fall over portions of the Maritimes on Saturday as Earl tracks across the region....With southern and Central New Brunswick...Prince Edward Island and mainland Nova Scotia being the most likely areas to receive these amounts. Over many areas of the Maritimes very heavy downpours are likely...With 25 millimetres or more possible in one hour which could lead to localized flooding and possible road washouts. Higher than normal water levels are possible along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and over the gulf of st. Lawrence coastlines. However since the tidal cycle is not extreme..Severe storm surge impacts are not as likely as they would be otherwise. However high waves and pounding surf can be expected along south and southeast facing coastlines around portions of the Maritimes with the arrival of Earl. Wave impacts at the coast could lead to some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure. Please refer to the latest Environment Canada forecasts for updated information.