THE RISE AND RISE OF CITIES

Of the estimated 108 billion people who have ever lived, according to the Population Reference Bureau, only around 4% have ever lived in cities.9

Modern humans have been around for roughly 200,000 years. Cities have existed, at most, for 10,000 years. Their recent rise to dominance has been rapid and has taken place on a vast scale. Today, more than half the world’s population lives in an urban area. As little as a hundred years ago, that figure was only 20%.

The United Nations10 reports that:

• 65 million people a year join the world’s urban population

• 2.5 billion more people are expected to move into urban environments by 2050, with 90% of the growth in Africa and Asia

• India (with 404 million more urban dwellers), China (292 million and Nigeria (212 million) are together expected to account for at least 37% of the growth of cities

9. Harold Takooshian, Urban Psychology: its history and current status, Journal of Social Distress and the Homesless, Vol 14, 2005.

10. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2018). The World’s Cities in 2018—Data Booklet (ST/ESA/ SER.A/417).

• The world’s urban population exploded from 746 million in 1950 to 3.9 billion in 2014. The global urban population is projected to pass 6 billion by 2045

• Many smaller cities are also growing rapidly, becoming medium-sized cities. Dubai, which currently has a population of 2.8 million, is growing at a rate of 10.7% annually: by 2030 it is thought it could be home to 3.4 million people

• In 2000, there were 371 cities with 1 million or more inhabitants. By 2018 there were 548. It is projected that by 2030, 706 cities will have at least 1 million or more inhabitants

11. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, The World’s Cities in 2018 - Data Booklet 2018

12. See for example

Thomas Fuchs, Lucas Iwer, Stefano Micali, Das überforderte Subjekt - Zeitdiagnosen einer beschleunigten Gesellschaft, Suhrkamp Verlag, 2018, p71

13. Lydia Krabbendam, Jim van Os, Schizophrenia and Urbanicity: A Major Environmental Influence - Conditional on Genetic Risk, Schizophrenia Bulletin, 31(4): 795-9

14. Mazda Adli, Urban Studies and Mental Health, , LSE Cities, November 2011

MEGACITIES - AND CITIES ON THEIR WAY TO BEING MEGACITIES

The number of megacities around the world (defined as cities with more than 10 million inhabitants) is estimated by some to be as high as 47 and others to be around 33. The discrepancy is accounted for by differences in marking city boundaries. For example, measuring the ‘metropolitan area’ of Toronto - its areas of economic and social interconnectedness - more than doubles the population of the ‘city proper’ - the administrative area - from 2.6 million to 5.6 million; and these areas are growing at different rates. Some places that make it into the higher estimates of global megacities are more accurately urban agglomerations, such as Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe.

What is not disputed is that megacities are increasing in number. The UN projects that there will be at least 10 more by 2030, mostly in developing countries. New megacities by 2030 include cities as diverse as London, Seoul, Luanda, Chengdu, Tehran and Ho Chi Minh City.

In addition, 66 cities are projected to have between 5 million and 10 million inhabitants by 2030, including Singapore with 6.3 million and Toronto with 6.7 million inhabitants.11

We are a highly adaptive species, but it would be odd if such a sudden and remarkable change in our living conditions didn’t impose some strains. For one thing, our new environment is man-made and we rarely get everything right. Until very recently, we have tended, as a species, not to pay very much attention to nature other than as something to be ‘tamed’, managed, and largely banished from cities. Its sudden, rapid regeneration outside our windows during lockdown surprised and delighted many. We have created a division between ‘town’ and ‘country’ which has not been beneficial to cities, which could be much greener and more biodiverse.

The German philosopher and psychiatrist Thomas Fuchs has linked the currently observed high levels of depression and anxiety to strains on our adaptability.12 One study by Lydia Krabbendam and Jim Van Os reported that levels of serious mental health problems can be twice as high in cities as in rural areas.13 And research consistently suggests that the bigger the city, the bigger the impact on mental health.14 The causes are complex and, while strongly associated with poverty, also include overcrowding, excessive noise, and environments that are detached from the natural world and perceived as bland, hostile or soulless.

15. Interview with Jan Gehl, American Society of Landscape Architects, https://www. asla.org/ContentDetail.aspx?id=31346

16. See for example WHO, 2005 https:// www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index5.html; and Nita Madhav et al., Pandemics, Risks, Impacts and Mitigation in Disease Control Priorities, The World Bank (2017)

17. https://www. weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/biodiversity-loss-is-hurting-our-ability-to-prepare-for-pandemics/

18. Mazda Adli, ibid

Egill S Bj Rnsson

We have moved from small places in which it was possible to know everybody, to large, teeming cities in which we constantly jostle up against complete strangers. The more congested areas can seem utterly alien to nature.

Our new way of life has delivered better economic opportunities, education and healthcare, and other freedoms. Those of us who live in cities - even those of us who love living in cities - cannot help but be aware that, much of the time, the urban environment feels bewildering. As the Danish architect Jan Gehl has observed: ‘We definitely know more about good habitats for mountain gorillas, Siberian tigers or panda bears than we do about good urban habitat for homo sapiens.’15

It is perhaps not surprising that vast metropolises are often the background to dystopian fiction, since they concentrate urban problems such as slum housing, poor drainage and sanitation, disease, higher crime rates, traffic congestion, air pollution and strain on resources, including water and energy. Climate crisis, food and energy security, intercultural living, overstretched resources, poverty and inequality all present threats to urban stability. Scientists have linked the rise and spread of zoonotic diseases (viruses that jump from animals to humans) to patterns of development.16 And it isn’t only scientists: John Scott, Head of Sustainability Risk at Zurich Insurance Group, writing for the World Economic Forum, says: ‘The increasing frequency of disease outbreaks is linked to climate change and biodiversity loss.’17

Meanwhile, in one global survey prior to the coronavirus pandemic, concerns over economic inequality were shown to ‘trump all other dangers’ in fears about the future. There is widespread recognition that high levels of inequality lead to crime and social and political unrest. When citizens feel they have no stake they are more likely to take matters into their own hands and seek radical and violent solutions.18 Climate change, pandemics and social inequality - the three big challenges we face globally - are interlinked.

Cities can be social and hopeful. They can feel outward-looking, exciting and full of opportunity. But too often they can also seem fast, furious, exhausting and alienating. Our senses are assaulted by video screens and billboards; by traffic, noise, fumes and the press of other people. We can feel over-stimulated, slightly out of control. We struggle to assert some agency. It is easy to get lost in the crowd, to feel so anxious about getting on we become detached from the values and relationships, the connections to the natural world, and the sense of meaning that together make us human. We long, in normal times at least, for spaces in which to be slow and contemplative, to be in nature and to reflect on our place in it. During lockdown it was commonly remarked that the sound of birdsong was much louder with the absence of traffic. We long to reconnect with the meaning of our lives, and a connection to the natural world helps us do that.

Wellbeing in cities, then, can’t be fixed solely by better architecture or an improved public transport system - though both of those will help. Wellbeing encompasses all the aspects of being human. The term captures a nexus of interconnections. And if we are trying to help people thrive in the urban environment, then all the aspects of being human and existing on this planet have to be taken into account.