Solutions Volume 7, Issue 3 by The Solutions Journal

May-June 2016, Volume 7, Issue 3

For a sustainable and desirable future

Solutions Governance for a Sustainable Future by Victor Galaz, Aart de Zeeuw, Hideaki Shiroyama, and Debbie Tripley The New Urban Science by Xuemei Bai, Barbara Norman, and Peter Edwards Feeding the World in a Time of Climate Change by John Ingram et al. Decarbonizing the World Economy by Frank Jotzo Solving the Global Energy Crisis, One Village at a Time by Daniel M. Kammen www.thesolutionsjournal.com USD $5.99 CAD $6.99 EURO â&#x201A;Ź4.99

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Dyball, R. and K. Richardson. (2016). Needed: New Knowledge for Sustainable Development! Solutions 7(3): 1–3. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/needed-new-knowledge-for-sustainable-developmet/

Editorial by Katherine Richardson and Robert Dyball

Needed: New Knowledge for Sustainable Development!

Lizette Kabré

Then Danish Prime Minister, Helle Thorning speaks at the opening session of the 2014 IARU Sustainability Science Congress, Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability.

hroughout history, progress in human societies has come about thanks to an improved understanding of the world around us, which, in turn, has enabled us to identify new ways to draw advantage. The knowledge upon which such new understanding is based is derived through informal or organized observation—where organized observation is more commonly referred to as research. That new knowledge is a fundamental driver of societal development was formally recognized at the time of the Enlightenment and, since then, the mantra “scientia potentia est” (knowledge is power) has been an integral component of societal thinking, and has manifested itself in the establishment

and support of universities and research. Knowledge, in itself, however, can only enable, and thus not ensure, progress, as it cannot dictate the choices that societies make. If and how knowledge is used to identify societal goals and make decisions is inextricably linked with the values that we hold. Our values, in turn, are largely derived from the culture of which our society is a part. While knowledge remains a prerequisite for societal progress, there is increasing awareness that the challenges facing humankind today differ from those of the past, and that new types of knowledge are needed to support the continued development of a global society which now

exceeds seven billion individuals and which is likely to grow to nine to ten billion by the middle of this century. Human societies always have been, and always will be, dependent on the Earth’s natural resources for their economic growth, development, and well-being. The Earth’s resources are, however, limited, and numerous studies indicate that human activities have begun to alter critical global processes. Human-caused climate change is the best known example of this, but there are many others. We are living in the Anthropocene, a period in the Earth’s history where human activities have become a dominant force impacting the function of the Earth as a whole.

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Editorial by Katherine Richardson and Robert Dyball As worrying as this knowledge is, it also puts us in a position of recognizing possibilities for managing the interaction between human activities and Earth processes. This newfound knowledge makes us the first generation with the power to actually control the trajectory of our relationship to nature. Sustainable societal development within this framework requires that human demand for resources respects the Earth’s capacity to supply. It also requires the establishment of mechanisms for sharing critical resources within a global population where all have a right to development. The International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU), whose members include The Australian National University, ETH Zurich, National University of Singapore, Peking University, University of California Berkeley, University of Cambridge, University of Oxford, University of Copenhagen, Cape Town University, and Yale,1 recognized early on that traditional university disciplines must work together in novel ways to generate the new types of knowledge needed for society to respond to these new challenges. Therefore IARU, in 2009, hosted a scientific congress addressing the societal challenge of climate change. That congress, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions,2 was instrumental both in bringing disciplines together to address potential solutions to the challenge of climate change, and also in generating media and public interest for the results of climate change research in the run-up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP15 held in Copenhagen in 2009. Recognizing that climate change is not the only challenge to be overcome in order to achieve sustainable development, in October 2014 IARU hosted another scientific congress, Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability.3 More

Lizette Kabré

Katherine Richardson speaks at the opening session of the IARU Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability congress.

than 700 participants representing both researchers and societal decision makers from 54 countries attended the congress. This special issue of Solutions takes their deliberations as its starting point. An important take-home message from the congress was that while the times in which we are living are challenging, they are also very exciting. In the same manner that our ancient ancestors realized that they—for the sake of the continued development of their societies—needed to develop rules and regulations to manage their local environmental resources, our society is recognizing the need for management of resources at the global level. This special issue of Solutions provides insight into how the knowledge being generated in different disciplines can be brought together to develop these management tools.

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Another important message was that optimizing within individual sectors will not bring us on a path towards sustainable development. We must consider the systems that the individual sectors combine to create as a whole. Therefore, the feature section of this volume examines how research can contribute to bringing our food, urban, government, and economic systems on a path towards sustainable development. In addition to reporting on-going research, however, this volume contains provocative contributions inviting the reader to consider the changes occurring around us from new perspectives. Bringing disciplines together, for example, may require new ways of organizing our universities. In “Transforming the World by Transforming the University: Envisioning the University of 2040”

Editorial by Katherine Richardson and Robert Dyball

Lizette Kabré

Dr. Adil Najam gives a plenary keynote address at the 2014 IARU congress. Dr. Najam emphasized the importance of taking a global perspective on issues relating to the environment, development, and security.

(pages 12–16), the reader is presented with one compelling vision for the future of higher education, and we are hard pressed to imagine anyone who would not want to attend that university. It is only natural that we interpret the changes occurring around us through the eyes of the society of which we are a part, but that does not mean that people living in the future will interpret our experiences in the same way that we do. In “How Will Future Historians Tell the Story of How We Are Tackling Climate Change Today?” (pages 86–93), the reader is invited to consider how future historians might view the current political efforts to manage human-caused climate change and the hypothetical historian we visit sees things rather differently than most people do today.

The challenge of finding pathways to a just, sustainable, and worthwhile future is not a trivial one. However, the central message coming from the authors and articles contributing to this special issue of Solutions is that humans do have the knowledge to indicate where those pathways are. We now need to pivot from focusing on what is the state of the planet and its people to what ought to be the state of the planet and its people. Given what we already know, we need the collective political will to choose those pathways that lead towards those common goals of living well and living sustainably. Humanity is likely facing the most daunting challenge in its history— developing the mechanisms to ensure that its combined activities do not undermine the basic foundation of our

societies. This issue reminds us of the magnitude of the challenges we face in achieving sustainable development, but also the uplifting message that knowledge is power, and that research being carried out right now is helping humanity identify sustainable societal trajectories and, thus, giving humanity the power to control its future. Let us hope that societies embrace this knowledge. References 1. International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU) [online] (2016) http://www.iaruni.org/. 2. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions. University of Copenhagen [online] (2016) http://sustainability.ku.dk/sustainability-lectures/ previous/climatechangecongress09/. 3. Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability. University of Copenhagen [online] (2016) http:// sustainability.ku.dk/sustainability-lectures/ previous/iarucongress2014/.

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Contents

May/June 2016

Features

Become a part of the global Solutions Team. Have Solutions delivered to your door or devices with our new PDF subscription. Keep up to date on our latest articles and gain exclusive access to online and face to face Solutions events.

Plus Urban Sustainability: Joining the Dots between Planning, Science, and Community by Barbara Norman

Navigating through the Urban Age: Principles and Innovations by Xuemei Bai, Barbara Norman, and Peter Edwards

Rapidly expanding cities require retrofitting of infrastructure and integrating new technologies and designs. A ‘new urban science’ offers us a way to think about how to approach these many challenges.

Food Security, Food Systems, and Environmental Change by John Ingram, Robert Dyball, Mark Howden, Sonja Vermeulen, Tara Garnett, Barbara Redlingshöfer, Stéphane Guilbert, and John R. Porter A sustainable journey from seed to food product requires insight into much more than what takes place at the farm. Meeting the challenges of future food demand requires a shift in thinking from just food to food systems that integrate the dimensions of health, environment, industry, transport, and trade.

Submit Join the dialogue. Submit your thoughts in the form of articles, news stories, features, or online comments. What are your solutions?

by Victor Galaz, Aart de Zeeuw, Hideaki Shiroyama, and Debbie Tripley

At a time when international institutions are struggling to keep pace with the urgency of the global environmental crisis, planetary boundaries can be used to frame governance reform. But, this notion is in need of a narrative to be made meaningful to different actors, in both North and South.

The search for real answers begins with Solutions Join the Solutions Team

Planetary Boundaries: Governing Emerging Risks and Opportunities

Plus Towards Solutions to the Global Nutrient Challenge by Sarah E Cornell and Hanna Ahlström

Become a Partner Your contribution will help bring together people from all walks of life in creating innovative solutions. www.thesolutionsjournal.com

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Decarbonizing the World Economy by Frank Jotzo

Taking the carbon out of economic growth is possible, and it’s already happening. Transitional pathways for the 16 largest economies worldwide would allow economic growth without sacrificing the environment and planet. Plus The Danish Climate Investment Fund by Torben Möger Pedersen and Averting Global Ecological Collapse through Equitable Development? by Roberto De Vogli

On the Web

Perspectives 21

Reaping the Health Benefits of Tackling Environmental Change by Steffen Loft

Africa’s “Rainbow Revolution:” Feeding a Continent and the World in a Changing Climate by Lindiwe Majele Sibanda and Sithembile Ndema Mwamakamba 25 Combine and Share Essential Knowledge for Sustainable Water Management by Jafet C.M. Andersson, Berit Arheimer, and Niclas Hjerdt 30

www.thesolutionsjournal.org Explore the Solutions website for more content and interactivity. What are your solutions? Share your vision for a sustainable and desirable future and learn more about the Solutions community.

Envisioning

Empowering Communities with Sustainable Energy by Daniel M. Kammen

Producing Bioenergy in a Local Biosphere: Integrating Food and Energy Systems by Steven W. Running

Denmark’s Energy Revolution: Past, Present, and Future by Lars Chr. Lilleholt

On the Ground

A Case for Conservation on a Human Scale by Neil D. Burgess and Katarzyna Nowak Two conservation scientists discuss the global challenge of overcoming the growing disconnect between humans and their environments, reflecting on their experiences in Tanzania and the United Kingdom.

Transforming the World by Transforming the University: Envisioning the University of 2040 by Ariane

Solutions in History

How Will Future Historians Tell the Story of How We Are Tackling Climate Change Today? by Katherine Richardson, Robert Dyball, and

König, Robert Dyball, and Federico Davila Many students are painfully aware of the problems facing the world today and want to be empowered to do something about it. At the university of 2040, solutions to real-world problems are incubated and educators strive to practice what they preach.

Will Steffen How will history depict our role in addressing climate change? Looking through the glasses of history, events and processes that might seems less significant today gain new importance in the narrative of our efforts to combat climate change.

Idea Lab Noteworthy

08 Interview The Sustainable Development Goals: A Common Song Sheet for the World’s Orchestra Guido Schmidt-Traub Interviewed by Katherine

Mind the Gap: Gender Imbalance in Science Journalism

Richardson The Executive Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network gives a quick guide to the Sustainable Development Goals and how new science will help move the SDGs forward.

Stemming the Flow of Female Migrants to ISIS Territory #SayHerName: Women and the Black Lives Matter Movement New Driving App Helps You Save the Planet

In Review

Systemic Solutions from Human Ecology by Molly Anderson

Editorial

Needed: New Knowledge for Sustainable Development! by Robert Dyball and Katherine Richardson

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Solutions

Contributors 1

Editors-in-Chief: Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski Associate Editors: David Orr, Jacqueline McGlade Managing Editor: Colleen Maney

Senior Editors: Christina Asquith, Jack Fairweather History Section Editor: Frank Zelko Book & Envisioning Editor: Bruce Cooperstein

Editor: Naomi Stewart Graphic Designer: Kelley Dodd Copy Editors: Anna Sottile, Nadine Ledesma Business Manager: Ian Chambers Interns: Kendall Bousquet, N’dea Yancey-Bragg Editorial Board: Gar Alperovitz, Vinya Ariyaratne, Robert Ayres, Peter Barnes, William Becker, Lester Brown, Alexander Chikunov, Cutler Cleveland, Raymond Cole, Rita Colwell, Robert Corell, Herman Daly, Thomas Dietz, Josh Farley, Jerry Franklin, Susan Joy Hassol, Paul Hawken, Richard Heinberg, Jeffrey Hollender, Buzz Holling, Terry Irwin, Jon Isham, Wes Jackson, Tim Kasser, Tom Kompas, Frances Moore Lappé, Rik Leemans, Wenhua Li, Thomas Lovejoy, Hunter Lovins, Manfred Max-Neef, Peter May, Bill McKibben, William J. Mitsch, Mohan Munasinghe, Norman Myers, Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir, Bill Rees, Wolfgang Sachs, Peter Senge, Vandana Shiva, Anthony Simon, Gus Speth, Larry Susskind, David Suzuki, John Todd, Mary Evelyn Tucker, Alvaro Umaña, Sim van der Ryn, Peter Victor, Mathis Wackernagel, John Xia, Mike Young

Subscriptions: http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/subscribe Email: solutions@thesolutionsjournal.com

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On the Cover The Kelpies, a set of metal sculptures by Andy Scott that serve as the centrepiece for the The Helix community regeneration project in Falkirk, Scotland. Started in 2003, The Helix has since transformed a disused industrial landscape into an urban greenscape including parks, a pond, and a woodland walk. The area is now popular with both locals and tourists alike. Photo by Neil Williamson. Solutions is subject to the Creative Commons license except where otherwise stated.

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1. Katherine Richardson—

Katherine Richardson is a professor in biological oceanography at the University of Copenhagen and leader of the Sustainability Science Centre. She was Chairperson of the Commission on Climate Change Policy, which presented the roadmap for how Denmark can become independent of fossil fuels. She is currently a member of the Danish Climate Council. Her research focuses on the importance of biological processes in the ocean for the uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere and how ocean biology contributes to Earth system functioning. Katherine was Chairman of the Scientific Steering Committee for the IARU congress, Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability. 2. Elisabeth Wulffeld—Elisabeth

Wulffeld is a communications officer at the Natural History Museum of Denmark and the Sustainability Science Centre at the University of Copenhagen. With two MSc degrees, in conservation science and communication of biological sciences, her current work focuses on dissemination of sustainability and biodiversity research to the public and leading science outreach activities. She was head of communications at the IARU congress, Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability in 2014.

Academy Researcher at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Among his publications in English are articles in International Environmental Agreements, Nature, Climate Change, Science, Ecological Economics, The Lancet, Public Administration, Environmental Politics, and Governance. He is also the author of Global Environmental Governance, Technology and Politics: the Anthropocene Gap. 5. John Ingram—John Ingram has

worked in East and Southern Africa and South Asia in agriculture, forestry, and agroecology. He has worked for the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) to help coordinate research on global change and agroecology as part of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. He was Executive Officer of the international project ‘Global Environmental Change and Food Systems,’ and later became NERC’s ‘Food Security Leader.’ In 2013 he established the Food Systems Programme in the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute, and has since developed the ‘Innovative Food Systems Teaching and Learning’ program. 6. Xuemei Bai—Xuemei Bai is a

venes the Human Ecology program in the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University. He is also Visiting Professor at the College of Human Ecology, University of the Philippines Los Baños. His current research centers on the application of dynamic systems thinking to problems in Human Ecology and Sustainability Science. He is President of the Society for Human Ecology, Chair of the Human Ecology Section of the Ecological Society of America, and editor of Human Ecology Review. He is co-author of Understanding Human Ecology.

Professor of Urban Environment and Human Ecology at Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University. Her research focuses on urbanization, understanding cities as complex evolving systems, cities and climate change, system innovation, and sustainability transition. She is an appointed member of Science Committee of Future Earth, where she is leading the development of Cities Knowledge Action Network. She served as the Vice Chair of the Science Committee of the Human Dimensional Program for Global Environmental Change, and as a Lead Author for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Global Energy Assessment.

4. Victor Galaz—Victor Galaz is

7. Barbara Norman—Barbara

Deputy Science Director and Associate Professor in Political Science at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and Senior

Norman is the Foundation Chair of Urban and Regional Planning and Director of Canberra Urban and Regional Futures,

3. Robert Dyball—Robert Dyball con-

Contributors 9

14 8

University of Canberra. She is an Adjunct Professor with The Australian National University, a Life Fellow and past national president of the Planning Institute of Australia, and a Life Honorary Fellow of the Royal Town Planning Institute (UK). Barbara was a contributing author to IPCC 5 WG 2 report on Impacts 2014.

College London. He has consulted for the World Bank and World Health Organization, and is a former member of the Globalization and Health Knowledge Network of the World Health Organization Commission on Social Determinants of Health. Roberto is the author of Progress or Collapse: The Crises of Market Greed.

8. Frank Jotzo—Frank Jotzo is deputy

12. Jafet Andersson—Jafet

director of the Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy, and director of the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy. He is a Lead Author of the Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and associate editor of Climate Policy. He has been extensively involved in policy analysis and advising, including Australia’s Garnaut Climate Change Review. Recently, he led a research collaboration between Australian and Chinese universities.

Andersson is a Research Fellow at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. His research focuses on water availability, use, allocation and management, river flow regimes and ecosystem services, development and food security, knowledge and uncertainty, and computer simulation and remote sensing. He received his Ph.D. from ETH Zurich through a dissertation focusing on “The potential impacts of enhanced soil moisture and soil fertility on smallholder crop yields in Southern Africa.”

9. Torben Möger Pedersen—

13. Steffen Loft—Steffen Loft has

Torben Möger Pedersen is CEO of PensionDanmark, a pension fund that offers defined contribution pension, insurance, and health care products on the basis of collective agreements. He holds board memberships with Paradigm Change Capital Partners, Copenhagen Infrastructure Fund I & II, and the Danish Climate Investment Fund. In 2014 he became a member of the Private Sector Advisory Group of UN’s Green Climate Fund. He is also an appointed member of the World Economic Forum network Global Agenda Council on Climate Change.

been the Professor and Head of Section of Environmental Health at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark since 1998, and in 2015 became the Head of Department of Public Health in The Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences. His research focus is associations between health and air quality in the ambient and indoor environment, in particular related to sustainable development. Steffen Loft has published more than 400 scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals with more than 15,000 citations.

10. Sarah Cornell—Sarah Cornell

is an environmental scientist working at the Stockholm Resilience Centre in Sweden. Her research focuses on ways to understand the interactions of human and environmental systems in the context of global change. 11. Roberto De Vogli—Roberto De

Vogli is an Associate Professor at the Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis and at the University of Padua. He is also an Honorary Senior Lecturer at the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University

14. Lindiwe Majele Sibanda—

Lindiwe is the Chief Executive Officer and Head of Mission of the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network. Lindiwe coordinates policy research and advocacy programs aimed at making Africa a food and nutrition secure region. She is currently leading a multi-country research and technical assistance project on Improving Nutrition Outcomes through Optimized Agricultural Investments, addressing the question “What can agriculture do for nutrition?” 15. Sithembile Ndema Mwamakamba—Sithembile is the

Natural Resources and Environment

Programs Manager of the, Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network. She is leading work and policy programs related to climate smart agriculture aimed at increasing agricultural productivity and strengthening the resilience of vulnerable smallholder farmers to the impact of climate change. She also leads participation and engagement in the Global Alliance for Climate Smart Agriculture. 16. Daniel M. Kammen—Dr.

Daniel M. Kammen is the Class of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy at the University of California, Berkeley, with parallel appointments in the Energy and Resources Group, the Goldman School of Public Policy, and the department of Nuclear Engineering. He was appointed by then Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in April 2010 as the first energy fellow of the new Environment and Climate Partnership for the Americas initiative. He is a Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. 17. Lars Christian Lilleholt—Lars

Christian Lilleholt is the Energy, Power, and Thermal Minister on the Energy, Power, and Climate Ministry of the Danish Parliament. He has represented the Liberal Party in the Parliament since 1997. He has also served as the Energy, Supply, and Climate Minister, and as the Energiordfører and Climate Rapporteur from 2005–2015. 18. Neil Burgess—Neil Burgess

is a conservation scientist with field engagements in Tanzania and Denmark. He leads the science program at UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Center in Cambridge, UK and has a part time professorship at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. In Tanzania he is the Vice Chairman of the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group and has worked for many years for WWF and other NGOs. His driving passion is finding out and implementing conservation that works at scales from global to local, and in bringing science and analysis

to help decision making and to deliver better conservation outcomes. 19. Katarzyna Nowak—Katarzyna

Nowak has 10 years of experience in wildlife conservation, primarily in Tanzania and South Africa in both the academic and NGO sectors. She is a research fellow in Anthropology at Durham University, UK, and a research associate in Zoology at the University of the Free State, Qwaqwa, South Africa. She is a scientific advisor to the Southern Tanzania Elephant Program, and writes about wildlife trade issues for a variety of media outlets including National Geographic. 20. Steven W. Running—Steven

Running is a Regents Professor of Global Ecology at the University of Montana, Missoula. He is the Land Team Leader for the NASA Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. He was a co-Lead Chapter Author for the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment, and was a chapter Lead Author for the 4th Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He currently chairs the NASA Earth Science Subcommittee. Steven is an elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, and in 2014 was designated one of “The World’s Most Influential Scientific Minds” in Geosciences. 21. Molly Anderson—Molly

Anderson is the William R. Kenan Professor of Food Studies at Middlebury College in Vermont. She participates in food system reform collaboratives at the state, regional and national levels, and she is a member of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems. She has worked as a private consultant, with Oxfam America, and at Tufts University, where she was founding Director of the Agriculture, Food and Environment Graduate Program in the School of Nutrition Science & Policy and directed Tufts Institute of the Environment for two years.

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Idea Lab Noteworthy

Moshe Reuveni

The Science Byline Counting Project found that 81 percent of features in Scientific American are written by men.

Mind the Gap: Gender Imbalance in Science Journalism by N’dea Yancey-Bragg

Where are the women? That is the question a team of volunteers sought to answer when they began the Science Byline Counting Project last year. A small team of counters tracked 11 major publications over eight months to see just how many women were writing for the most popular forums in science journalism.

While there is certainly room for improvement, the data revealed a surprising level of gender equity. In total, female authors wrote 855 articles while male authors wrote 867. Women’s bylines outnumbered men’s in six of the publications studied. Among the other five, the largest disparities were in The Atlantic and Wired, where men wrote 71.4 percent and 63.6 percent of pieces respectively. Disparities emerged more clearly when the articles were categorized by length or topic. In all but two

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publications, women wrote the most short (less than 500 words) pieces. However, in longer works and feature stories, the gap was either slim or stark. In six of the publications there was near-perfect gender balance, while in the other five, men accounted for at least 70 percent of the pieces. Harper’s Magazine, for example, had a 50/50 ratio, while men wrote 81 percent of the features in Scientific American. When organized by category, female authors contribute more or almost equally compared to their

Idea Lab Noteworthy

Alisdare Hickson

A demonstration against air strikes on Syria in London November 2015. The ISD warns that women vulnerable to ISIS recruitment show further signs of radicalization as a result of Western bombing campaigns.

male counterparts in four out of seven categories, including environmental journalism, healthcare, and social sciences. Men lead by only a slim margin in the other categories. So, where are the women? It seems they are publishing in certain outlets much more frequently than others. Publications seem either en route to a balanced gender ratio or very far off. In The New York Times’ Tuesday Science section for example, women dominated bylines in features and long pieces, a trend not observed elsewhere. Discover and Popular Science also boasted much narrower gender gaps and featured more women writers overall. The Atlantic, Scientific American, and the Smithsonian, however, published

significantly more men than women across the board. The study’s data has its limits, as its co-chairs admitted in the report. It cannot explain the reasons behind the gender disparity it observed, and the volunteers only accounted for print publications, thus excluding popular online-only forums like Buzzfeed and Nautilus. These numbers also should not exist in a vacuum; it would be useful to see if these numbers are an improvement on the past or merely maintenance of the status quo. Hopefully, the study will challenge the publications that fared the worst to be more proactive in including women’s voices in the future.

Stemming the Flow of Female Migrants to ISIS Territory by Kendall Bousquet

Men raised in the West who have travelled to ISIS-controlled territories in order to fight have received their share of media coverage, especially following the release of ISIS video tapes featuring Western-accented ISIS soldiers. Less discussed are the stories of the women who leave their homes in the West in order to live under ISIS. Dozens of these women and girls—known as muhajirat, or female migrants in Arabic—have documented their lives pre- and post-migration to ISIS-held lands on

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Idea Lab Noteworthy social media websites such as Tumblr, Twitter, and ASKfm. The ways in which these women use the site, what insight it gives us into their reasoning, and the ways in which social media is used as a recruiting tool for ISIS have been documented in a report released by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) entitled “Becoming Mulan?: Western Female Migrants to ISIS.” The ISD issues a number of recommendations in the report on how policymakers, politicians, and the family of these muhajirat might respond to the crisis. Most of the muhajirat document on social media their alienation with the West and their feelings that Islam is under attack by American imperialism. In justifying the cause for which they are willing to leave home, they must make the case to themselves and then to other muhajirat that the threat facing Muslims is greater than the pain of leaving their homes and families behind. The ISD recommends that policy makers be aware that these women show further signs of radicalization as a result of Western bombing campaigns, and that such interventions may lead the women to pose a larger threat. The ISD also argues for counter-narratives to be developed by governments and families alike to act as a positive counter-influence for high risk young women found to be participating in these online communities.

New Driving App Helps You Save the Planet by Scott Osberg and Rebecca Hinch

Increasingly, Americans are waking up and realizing that climate change is a huge problem and that it is not going away. However, it is so big that many people think that there is not much that one person can do. Until now.

A new app can help drivers reduce emissions by as much as 25 percent, no matter what kind of vehicle they drive. On top of protecting the environment, drivers can also save money on gas and demonstrate their good driving skills to friends and family. The Green Driving Challenge makes the serious job of reducing carbon footprints fun and easy. The makers of the game describe it as a “Fitbit for your car—by keeping your car’s health in check and changing your driving style, you can also improve the health of the environment.” The Green Driving Challenge is easy and safe to use. Users simply download the app onto an Android device, plug in an onboard diagnostics scanner, and then do their best to eco-drive. Once a trip is finished, the driver can check his or her results on key eco-driving benchmarks. While some “smart” cars can help drivers improve their fuel economy, the Green Driving Challenge provides even more personalized information that can guide and teach eco-driving skills. A team of eco-driving experts evaluate each trip’s results and advise drivers on how to get the best fuel economy for their vehicles. The Green Driving Challenge makes learning to eco-drive fun, allowing drivers to compete with themselves or other like-minded drivers. Its benefits to the environment make it endlessly rewarding. Join the eco-revolution of improving the way you drive. Help save the planet, one trip at a time—and, enjoy the ride. Learn more about the Green Driving Challenge and download the game at https://www.greendriving challenge.com/.

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The Green Driving Challenge

The Green Driving Challenge app helps drivers to improve their eco-driving skills.

#SayHerName: Women and the Black Lives Matter Movement by Kendall Bousquet

The public spotlight on the killings of Michael Brown, Tamir Rice, and Eric Garner at the hands of police officers in the United States has shifted the issue of police brutality against black communities to a level of public acknowledgement not seen since the days of the first televised civil rights marches in the 1960s. Black Lives Matter, an activist movement founded by three black women—Alicia Garza, Patrisse Cullors, and Opal Tometi—has precipitated this public recognition. However, in the national conversation surrounding police brutality, the lives of black women taken by police brutality are rarely discussed. #SayHerName is a movement attempting to highlight police violence against black women. The death of Sandra Bland, which received more media attention than any other black female victim of police brutality, set off the spark from which the #SayHerName movement began. At protests following the discovery of her body hanging in a Texas jail cell after her arrest during a routine traffic stop, protestors chanted “#SayHerName,” invoking the need

Idea Lab Noteworthy for acknowledgement of black female victims of police brutality. A policy brief issued by the African American Policy Forum (AAPF) after the movement was birthed explicitly calls for a way to “ensure that Black women’s stories are integrated into demands for justice, policy responses to police violence, and media representations of victims and survivors of police brutality.” According to The Guardian, 16 black women have been killed by police since the beginning

of 2015, compared to 321 Black men, but the AAPF states that there is no readily available database of police killings since, remarkably, there are no such records published by the US government. Recommendations by the organization include representation of the names and faces of black women alongside those of black men, acknowledgement of the high proportion of black transsexual women that have been murdered, and the need to conceptualize violence against black

women and girls within the context of systems like the school-to-prison pipeline and exponentially higher suspension rates for black girls in school when compared to their peers. Until names like Rekia Boyd, Aiyana Jones, Yvette Smith, and those of other black women killed by police are acknowledged and justice for their deaths served, the #SayHerName movement serves as an urgent reminder that the lives of black women and girls matter, too.

Otto Yamamoto

A vigil in remembrance of black women and girls killed by the police in the Bronx, NY in May 2015. www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 11

König, A., R. Dyball, and F. Davila. (2016). Transforming the World by Transforming the University: Envisioning the University of 2040. Solutions 7(3): 12–16. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/transforming-the-world-by-transforming-the-university-envisioning-the-university-of-2040/

Envisioning

Transforming the World by Transforming the University: Envisioning the University of 2040 by Ariane König, Robert Dyball, and Federico Davila

This article is part of a regular section in Solutions in which the author is challenged to envision a future society in which all the right changes have been made.

e are educating students to engage with a future that will be very different to the era in which most universities were established. Global change is accelerating in every sphere of society. As intersecting technological, social, environmental, and economic issues become increasingly complex, the future becomes less predictable. Given this uncertainty, how might education in 2040 look? Specifically, how will universities combine research, teaching and learning, and civic engagement to foster just and sustainable futures?

The Challenges: OldFashioned Academia Creating just and sustainable futures requires nurturing students to be change agents, adept at novel, complex, and interdisciplinary thinking.1 These are skills that universities were not established to provide, and many find themselves poorly equipped to foster them.2,3 In traditional academic institutions, teaching intervention skills, civic engagement, and interdisciplinary work is minimally rewarded, and often, even actively discouraged. Academics are rewarded for reporting research findings with little explicit focus on solutions in high-impact, narrowly discipline-focused journals.

Lizette Kabré

Students participate in a breakout session at the 2014 IARU Sustainability Science Congress.

This has reinforced public perceptions of academics as divorced from the real world. Most large universities are structured around disciplinary knowledge silos. Departments of arts and social sciences, economics, physics, biology, and so forth, typically house the sub-disciplines over which they claim ownership. Administrative and funding structures can make it hard for students and staff to move between these silos. Programs of study typically demand course selections from a narrow range of options deemed appropriate for a major or specialty. Where funds or prestige follow student enrollments, many colleges actively minimize “leakage” to other areas.4

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Consequently, cross-fertilization of ideas is minimal, with students and staff forced to work around “the system” to achieve it. More compliant students simply pass through their university education with little exposure to ideas outside of their chosen area of specialization. Knowledge required for tackling sustainability has no natural home in this arrangement, and is often shoehorned into an existing program, such as environmental studies. In reality, sustainability cuts across all academic disciplines. Institutional cultures that encourage disciplinary specialization and discourage blending knowledge are not well equipped to develop an understanding of complex and contested human–environment systems.5,6

Envisioning Breaking through Silo Walls The institutional barriers between disciplinary silos within universities are replicated in barriers between the university and the non-academic world beyond. Where there is no outreach to communities, business, and policy makers grappling with these problems, there is little capacity to influence change in the real world at all. On occasions when students are tasked with working with these stakeholders—such as through student projects—requirements that they report in academic language can make their findings of little practical value to those stakeholders. As a result, there is a lack of meaningful engagement and co-production of knowledge with non-academic sectors. Assessing project recommendations merely for their academic merit, with no expectation of implementation, can be frustrating for students concerned with actually changing the world for the better. Many students are painfully aware of the problems facing the world today and want to be empowered to do something about it. Some academics open to experimentation have committed to teaching for “action competence,” but it is still far from the norm. A further challenge is to develop approaches and indicators for innovation that will enable transitions to new forms of production, consumption, and distribution, with new combinations of technologies, institutions, and lifestyles. Students need to generate messages that enthuse consumers of current modes of production to willingly embrace these new modes of production.7 This future orientation is a major challenge for traditional university educators, themselves educated in silos of specialized knowledge gained from the past. So, how would a university training program for future sustainability leaders look? We now write from the year 2040, where we imagine such a university

exists. We outline the core structural and educational elements of this university, and a graduate student provides a commentary and reflection in each section.

The University of 2040: Pedagogical Philosophies In 2040, our university is a place of mindfulness and a vibrant hub for collective inquiry into continued improvement of environmental quality and human well-being. This is a place in which critical research perspectives and solutions to real-world problems are incubated. Here, researchled learning is driven by a normative concern for a better world.8-10 Our university focuses on humility, empathy, and human potential. Our students come from all over the world, interact in a vibrant campus life that emphasises the importance of non-academic extra curricular social activities as well as study, and have educational interests that align with the university’s vision of contributing to a just, worthwhile, and sustainable future. Our courses are co-taught by academics from different disciplinary backgrounds. Students are able to specialize in technical fields, yet all degree structures require them to relate that specialization to societal and environmental challenges through compulsory breadth courses. We see our challenges as framed by the communities we work with and in which we are embedded. Many courses involve projects that work with local businesses, government agencies, and communities. The university strives to practice what it preaches. Its buildings and grounds are designed and managed to demonstrate innovation in sustainability practice. The physical structure of the campus serves as a living curriculum for learning sustainability principles. General staff also make a significant contribution to teaching, with facilities and services

I was born in 2020. I grew up with too little political action on climate change, food security, and biodiversity loss. But I also grew up at a time when renewable energy was growing fast; a world in which poverty was waning; one that was more connected than ever before. I grew up with the chance to learn from other cultures and knowledge systems from around the world about how to mobilize social action for change. My university offered me the opportunity to specialize in energy systems, in a degree program that emphasized concern for human well-being. My professors have been supportive and empathetic, and the atmosphere collegiate. Mine is a university that speaks to the concerns of my generation. Student Reflection, Class of 2040

managers sharing the everyday management challenges of converting sustainability principles into practice. Students are required to form mixed-background groups, where the requisite range of knowledges and skills is determined by the nature of the problem that they are addressing. A key course requirement is to report back to community stakeholders and to suggest solutions to their real local problems. Frequently, student project proposals are actually acted on by the stakeholder partners, something the students find both rewarding and empowering. Diversity of learning groups is key. Cross-disciplinary perspectives, professional expertise, community perspectives, and a diversity of backgrounds and experience constitute a vital repertoire essential to dealing with real-world problems. Students partner with their international peers to work across cultures and environments, and much of this work is done across the Internet in virtual classrooms. Internet usage has moved far beyond merely acting as an information repository, and now provides a genuine, interactive, and

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Envisioning

Klaus Holstig

The Danish Prime Minister in 2014, Helle Thorning Schmidt presents students with the winning prize for an international negotiation competition on the Sustainable Energy Trade Agreement. The competition was part of the IARU 2014 Sustainability Science Congress.

knowledge-generative learning arena. Students collaborate on joint projects in these online spaces, helping to reveal to themselves how their own cultural paradigms limit the range of solutions they can imagine. While students do still sometimes travel on international exchange programs, the Internet is the primary vehicle for broadening their cultural horizons. A reduced carbon footprint from travel is an added benefit. Transformative learning—relying on collective learning in diverse groups and organizations—is at the heart of our learning processes for individuals, groups, institutions, and systems. In transformative learning situations, learners—including teachers—need

to be challenged by the experiences and perceptions of others. In order to embrace complexity, conflict, uncertainty, and ignorance, we ensure that knowledge from diverse participants is made explicit, communicated, and understood by all. We structure and manage social interactions so that conflicts of interest are clear, and underlying values exposed. By co-designing and producing knowledge, we build transformative networks operating across scales, ranging from projects centered on impacts on campus and in the neighborhood, to global efforts through international collaboration and interactive Internetbased sharing of resources.

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The University of 2040: The Curriculum Our main goal is to educate students for the practice of sustainability interventions as a social-learning process. This involves projects and programs of research, looking at which elements are transferable and scalable to different problems from those originally envisioned. Crucial to this is a rigorous, but flexible, conceptual framework for moving between the social and ecological contexts of a specific problem and towards the general principles of justice and sustainability, in a futures-oriented manner.11-13 We have projects concerned with the earth system and rebuilding the relationship

Envisioning The use of web-based learning technologies means that I gain technical, as well as academic skills. My professors mentor, enable, and encourage me to pursue projects with industry and government, honing my academic skills for the real world. I commute to the physical campus for the intensive, face-to-face courses, where I exchange project findings with classmates. The university is flexible, allowing me to balance family, study, and to be active in my field of interest. Student Reflection, Class of 2040

between humanity and nature, as well as projects concerned with the functioning of particular subsystems, such as food, water, energy, and transport. We are always directing attention to the co-production of science and technology with the norms of a sustainable society. This interdisciplinary research deals with complexity and uncertainty by adopting a systems approach.14,15 With this, we can consider interactions across society and nature, formal and informal institutions and governance, expert and lay knowledge, the global and the local, as well as past, present, and future. Scenario analysis approaches are an example of a method used to enhance our understanding of adaption to new socio-ecological systems—all with high levels of uncertainty—the likelihood of disruptive changes, and a plethora of values and choices.16

Educational Tools for a New World We have designed three, interchangeable types of courses: • Fully web-based classes, which are largely concerned with theoretical frameworks and conceptual tools to help analysis and problem framing

Lizette Kabré

Students participate in an interactive game on future energy scenarios at the IARU 2014 Sustainability Science Congress.

• Face-to-face classes, which focus on real-world problems • Hybrid classes, where courses are co-run in two or more countries, with face-to-face classes interacting via teleconference. These parallel courses have a number of webbased group projects where students design projects with common elements The “flipped classroom” is a principle around which teaching and learning is structured at our university. The concept relies on teaching by teams of teachers and learning in class by groups of students: students often learn from home alone first, getting acquainted with new theories and concepts by reading and using web-resources. Teachers develop experiential engagement opportunities in class, usually hands-on activities for students to apply their new knowledge to practice on assigned problems. Learning is conceived as the creation of actionable knowledge, either alone or in groups, largely achieved by engaging

learners in applied problem-solving activities. Projects are then demonstrated and discussed in class. Teachers can thus offer more personalized guidance and interaction with students, instead of merely lecturing to them. Student projects show attention to the design of “learning environments,” which allow for both formal and informal teaching. We design spaces for socializing and learning across physical, virtual, institutional, and networked spaces. Virtual course platforms and web-based tools for group projects, as well as networks, are established together with our learning communities, and are responsive to changing needs. This creates spaces for critique, reflection, and reframing at all levels: ranging from specific issues to deliberations on the meaning of progress and the purpose of learning. These are essential to instilling critical thinking and a mindset of deep questioning. In our role as teachers we also act as agents of change, working in the real world, with research that is responsive to local needs.

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Envisioning References 1. Dyball, R. Human Ecology As Open Transdisciplinary Inquiry in Tackling Wicked Problems: Through the Transdisciplinary Imagination (eds Brown, V. and J. Russell) (Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, UK and Washington DC, USA, 2010). 2. Sterling, S. and L. Maxey. The Sustainable University: Taking it Forward in The Sustainable University. Progress and Prospects (eds Sterling, S., L. Maxey, and H. Luna) (Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, Abingdon, Oxon, UK and New York, USA, 2013). 3. Barth, M. Towards systemic social learning in Implementing Sustainability, in Higher Education: Learning in an Age of Transformation (Routledge (Earthscan), Oxon, 2015). 4. Becher, T. and P.R. Trowler. Academic Tribes and Territories (SRHE and Open University Press, Buckingham UK and Philadelphia USA, 1989). 5. König, A. Changing requisites to universities in st

the 21 century: organizing for transformative sustainability science for systemic change.

IARU Sustainable Campus Initiative and Sustainia

The IARU alliance of universities have produced a green guide of real-world examples of environmental, financial, and social successes to inspire innovation and creative action in universities around the globe.

Environmental Sustainability 16 (2015). 6. Jerneck, A. et al. Structuring sustainability science. Sustainability Science 6(1) (2011). 7. Christensen, C.B. Two kinds of economy, two kinds of self-toward more manageable, hence more sustainable and just supply chains. Human Ecology

Would you Enroll in the University of 2040? By mapping today’s systemic challenges onto one plausible future for higher education in 2040, universities can effectively contribute to fundamentally altering the relationship between environment, society, and science and technology. Future universities have rethought the relationship between knowledge of what is and visions of what ought to be. Altering this relationship will demand integrating research, teaching, and learning with civic engagement to transform human–environment relationships. This will help to align the purpose of universities with sustainability goals. Reshaping current university thinking, structures, and teaching approaches remains a challenge. We need to learn from our mistakes and create visions of the future from which co-creative research and transformative science may emerge. Finding greater ways of working with

communities, creating social learning environments, and motivating cross-fertilization across disciplines and practice is our mission. We are embedded in a global network of universities exchanging on how better to improve the translation of global technological solutions and abstract knowledge to local solutions that are socially robust.

Review 21(2) (2015). 8. Wiek, A. and D. Lang. Transformational Sustain ability Research Methodology in Sustainability Science (eds Heinrichs, H. et al) (Springer, Netherlands, 2016). 9. Miller, T. et al. The future of sustainability science: a solutions-oriented research agenda. Sustainability Science 9(2) (2014). 10. König, A. Towards systemic change: on the cocreation and evaluation of a study programme in transformative sustainability science with stakeholders in Luxembourg. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 16 (2015). 11. Miller, T. et al. The future of sustainability science:

Acknowledgements This vision paper emerged from presentations and discussions at the Sessions on Education in Sustainability at the IARU Sustainability Science Congress, 2014 in Copenhagen. Accordingly, this paper is developed based on pertinent insights, empirical studies, and theory presented by Lykke Friis, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Harro von Blottnitz, Katrine Grace Turner, Robert Costanza, Andrea Garcia Pazos, Louise Blessington, Flora Piasentin, Lin Roberts, Sue Lin-Wong, and Barbro Robertsson. We also thank the organizers of the IARU Congress.

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a solutions-oriented research agenda. Sustainability Science 9(2) (2014). 12. König, A. Towards systemic change: on the cocreation and evaluation of a study programme in transformative sustainability science with stakeholders in Luxembourg. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 16 (2015). 13. Dyball, R. and B. Newell. Understanding Human Ecology (Routledge, London, 2015). 14. König, A. Changing requisites to universities in the 21st century: organizing for transformative sustainability science for systemic change. Environmental Sustainability 16 (2015). 15. Dyball, R. and B. Newell. Understanding Human Ecology (Routledge, London, 2015). 16. Wiek, A. and D. Lang. Transformational Sustainability Research Methodology in Sustainability Science (eds Heinrichs, H. et al.) (Springer, Netherlands, 2016).

Richardson, K. (2016). The Sustainable Development Goals: A Common Song Sheet for the World’s Orchestra. Solutions 7(3): 17–20. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/the-sustainable-development-goals-a-commong-song-sheet-for-the-worlds-orchestra/

Idea Lab Interview

The Sustainable Development Goals: A Common Song Sheet for the World’s Orchestra Guido Schmidt-Traub Interviewed by Katherine Richardson

uido Schmidt-Traub works on the Sustainable Development Goals and climate change. He is Executive Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and member of the Future Earth Governing Council. Previously he was CEO of Paris-based CDC Climate Asset Management, Partner at South Pole Carbon Asset Management in Zurich, and climate change advisor to the Africa Progress Panel. He led the UNDP Millennium Development Goal Support Team and was Associate Director of the UN Millennium Project in New York.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by all countries on September 25, 2015. How will they make a difference to the world? The 17 SDGs have been adopted by all countries to guide international cooperation and national policies for sustainable development through to 2030. The goals can play several critical roles. First, they provide a short-hand description of sustainable development that can be taught in every school and every university. The goals explain scientific concepts, such as ecosystem services and biodiversity, and they promote integrated thinking across the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. Second, they distill a shared global ethics. Sustainable development is also a moral challenge, and the goals commit every country to end extreme poverty, promote social inclusion, and to ensure that human activities do not endanger or destroy essential life-supporting environmental systems. Third,

the goals map out time-bound quantitative objectives that will mobilize governments, civil society, science, and business, including entire epistemic communities, around the question of how the goals can be achieved in every country. In this way, they will also serve as an accountability framework at local, national, regional, and global levels. We can think of today’s world as an orchestra without a conductor. Everyone plays an instrument, but there is little coordination and no harmony. The SDGs can become a common song sheet for this orchestra. If everyone uses the same song sheet then the orchestra can become more harmonious without the need for a director. How can yet another network actually help move the SDGs from paper to practice? The Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) was commissioned by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2012 to mobilize expertise from science, business, civil society, and government to accelerate practical problem solving for sustainable development. We are governed by a unique Leadership Council that brings together expertise across the full spectrum of sustainable development—from human rights to health, education, climate science, or agronomy. The group includes practitioners who push the SDSN to work on some of the most important practical challenges. Moving forward, we have four key priorities.

Guido Schmidt-Traub

First, support the SDG agenda and make it operational. As two examples, we are supporting the development of a monitoring and indicator framework for the SDGs, and we are assessing the investment needs for the SDGs and how they could be financed. Second, the SDSN has 12 thematic groups that study how countries can transition towards sustainable development and identify solution initiatives. For example, the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project mobilizes leading research institutes across 16 of the largest greenhouse gas emitters to develop long-term national pathways for deep decarbonization. A similar project has recently been launched by our agriculture group. Third, we would like to support universities and other knowledge institutions in working with their governments to support the achievement of the SDGs. To this end, we have launched over 20 national and regional SDSNs that work on the specific challenges of their countries and regions. Finally, achieving the SDGs

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Idea Lab Interview

UN Women / Buksh Foundation

The newly adopted Sustainable Development Goals were promoted in Pakistan in February 2016.

will require better and more integrated education. To this end, the SDSN has launched SDSNedu, which offers free online courses and seeks to build an online university for sustainable development. Do we have enough knowledge to achieve the SDGs, or are there still missing gaps out there? In recent years global environmental change research has made tremendous progress, and we now have a more robust understanding of the major global life-support systems. Yet, several important gaps remain. For example, our understanding of marine life and the effects of ocean acidification remain

unsatisfactory, and a lot of systems information requires better downscaling to guide policymaking and improve medium- to long-term projections of how systems might evolve. I see a particularly important challenge in strengthening our understanding of how major earth systems interact and to overcome the artificial systems boundaries that guide many scientific methodologies and analyses. The energy–water nexus is an important example of such integrated analysis. To this end the SDSN, working with IIASA, the Stockholm Resilience Center, and dozens of leading research and modeling groups are launching a new initiative: The World in 2050.

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Over the coming years, this project aims to develop globally integrated pathways for sustainable development by mid-century. These pathways will include the SDGs as midway points to 2050 and cover the major dimensions of sustainable development, including economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. The project will also develop regional pathways to ensure that global pathways yield desirable and feasible regional pathways. We are still at the very beginning of this ambitious project but hope to be able to make a major contribution to our understanding of how the world can transition to sustainable development.

Idea Lab Interview In my view, one of the most important challenges for science is to support policymakers in understanding and undertaking the major transformations towards sustainable development at national and regional levels. These include the deep decarbonization of energy systems, the transformation of food systems to ensure healthy diets and environmental sustainability, managing urbanization in diverse countries, sustainable forest management, a shift towards sustainable consumption and production patterns, and completing the demographic transition in high-fertility countries. Each of these transformations requires a deep understanding of the underlying systems and drivers that must then be used to chart out long-term transformation pathways that can guide policies. Such pathways will require input from many different disciplines, but they must also be subject to extensive consultation with key stakeholders to support their buy-in and active support. Explain to us how such pathways are developed. Does it require a paradigm shift in science? Traditionally, science focuses on the unguided expansion of knowledge, and scientists rightly insist on their independence and their prerogative to define the questions they work on. This unguided expansion of knowledge—subject to peer review—has been immensely successful. It has produced the scientific revolution and led to the rich scientific body of knowledge we have today. Yet, developing pathways towards sustainable development requires an engineering approach to problem solving. Three factors define this approach. First, engineers start with

broad specifications of a working system, e.g. a rudimentary car, and then refine the design iteratively to achieve the desired result. Just like an automotive engineer works backward or “back-casts” from the desired car or car part, an earth system scientist developing transformation pathways must work backward from the desired system state. This back-casting asks questions that are different from the ones scientists often address today.

Their input is needed to improve the pathway and make it more acceptable. A big question for sustainability science today is how it can adopt such an engineering approach to problem solving. On example might be the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project launched by the SDSN and IDDRI. Under this initiative, each country team back-casts a long-term pathway towards reducing per capita greenhouse gas emissions to around

There are few if any blueprints that can be applied across countries, but countries can learn a lot from one another. Second, no single person understands all components of a modern car, so engineering has established analytical processes and system-management procedures for dividing up the problem into individual components that can always be fitted back together to yield an integrated system. Different teams work independently on different components with clearly specified interfaces. In this way, tremendous specialization can be achieved in developing one integrated system. Pathways towards sustainable development are just as complex and must therefore be broken down into their constituent components that separate teams can work on. Third, cars are prototyped and tested relentlessly to identify design weaknesses and improve performance. Similarly, transformation pathways must be tested through consultation with large numbers of stakeholders. Naturally, a business person or human rights leader will look differently at the same transformation pathway.

1.7t CO2e. Each pathway considers discrete components and technology questions that can be worked on independently but form part of one integrated system. Similarly, the pathways are subject to review by the different teams and consultation in the countries in order to refine them and to increase their societal acceptance. How do you recommend non-experts support or engage in the SDGs? The SDGs can only be achieved through deep transformations in rich and poor countries alike. Such transformations require a shared understanding of the challenges, extensive consultation and buy-in on the solution pathways, unprecedented mobilization, and continuous innovation and learning. In such a world it is difficult to separate the “expert” from the “non-expert,” as many different types of knowledge and experience need to come together. I hope the SDGs can help us understand the challenges we face better and move

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Idea Lab Interview

APEC 2013

The launching of the SDSN Indonesia Chapter by the President of the Republic of Indonesia on October 6, 2013.

towards common reference points. For this reason, I hope the goals will be taught in every school and every university. Companies and civil society organizations should ask themselves what the goals mean for them, what they might need to do differently to achieve them, and where they might be able to lead. Richard Curtis and others have created Project Everyone to popularize the SDGs and to reach out to all stakeholders, including the general public. This project is vitally important and deserves all our support. As a first step, please go to the Project Everyone website after reading this interview to find out how you can support the goals—regardless of whether you think of yourself as an expert or a non-expert.

Are there generic “solutions” to sustainability challenges, or do solutions always need to be city/site specific? How can we promote learning from one country to the next? In my experience, there are few if any blueprints that can be applied across countries, but countries can learn a lot from one another. The health sector has been most successful in developing rigorous, science-based strategies for combating HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and other major killers. These strategies were often pioneered in individual countries, and the health community then systematically propagated the lessons to other countries. Since this was coupled with significant funding through the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, as well as Gavi, a global vaccine alliance,

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countries learned quickly. In the short space of perhaps eight years, the knowledge of how to build national systems for the control and treatment of malaria had spread across the whole of Africa. Of course, no two country strategies are the same. For example, the drivers of the HIV/AIDS pandemic differ markedly across countries, so every country does need a welladapted strategy. Yet, public health has developed a common set of tools, treatment guidelines, and operational principles that countries can easily adapt to their needs and circumstance. Rigorous monitoring and evaluation ensures that lessons are identified quickly. The challenge now is how to replicate the lessons from health in other sectors, which have not seen similar progress.

Loft, S. (2016). Reaping the Health Benefits of Tackling Environmental Change. Solutions 7(3): 21–24. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/reaping-the-health-benefits-of-tackling-environmental-change/

Perspectives Reaping the Health Benefits of Tackling Environmental Change by Steffen Loft

Sookie

A rooftop garden in downtown Toronto, Canada. Urban green spaces are strongly associated with increasing public health.

ithout action, rapid global environmental change in the 21st century risks undermining, and even reversing, the gains in public health and human development made in the 20th century.1 The world is looking at a rise in average global temperature of 2.6 to 4.8 °C by 2100.2 In the hyper-connected world in which we live, the direct and indirect impacts of such a radical shift would be profound.

The UN World Health Organization (WHO) estimates an additional 250,000 lives could be lost annually because of climate change by the 2040s.3 However, this estimate is likely a very conservative one given that it accounts for only well-understood risks. More likely, a suite of direct and indirect effects such as extreme weather, water scarcity, economic damages, and conflict will result in many more premature deaths.

In June 2015, the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change noted that “tackling climate change could be the greatest health opportunity of the 21st century,”4 with climate risk mitigation and adaptation strategies likely to yield significant public health co-benefits. Indeed health, climate, and sustainable development frequently overlap and should reinforce one another. Even so, among the Sustainable Development Goals that were recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly, only one of the 17 goals addresses health directly.5 The Lancet Commission carefully assessed the likely impacts of climate change and presented a set of strategies designed to curb and reverse the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. The strategies included shifting away from fossil fuels, promoting public and active transport, and moderating the consumption of animal products.6 Work is also being done to identify and quantify, in economic terms, the health co-benefits of these changes.7 Moreover, in a paper in the Lancet in 2015, Dora et al. suggested specific policy relevant indicators for the health benefits related to a post-2015 sustainable global development agenda across four key themes: cities, energy, water, and food.8 Here, I briefly touch on the health-sustainability linkages of each.

Focus on Activity for Healthy Cities Over-reliance on fossil fuels and private motor vehicles has made many, if not most, modern cities unhealthy places to live and work. In order to improve the health of its residents, urban development now needs to be geared towards low-emission vehicles, greater access to public transport, and the promotion of cycling and walking. By clearing the air, quieting

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Perspectives neighborhoods and streets, fostering physical activity, and making roads safer, such strategies reduce the risk of a host of health problems such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers.9,10 Access to green space is strongly associated with public health dividends beyond simply facilitating sport. The global diabetes and obesity epidemics underscore the need to set aside plenty of open green space, and evidence suggests people are happier and healthier if parks, trees, community gardens, and playgrounds are plentiful and accessible.11 But, planners in our most polluted cities may face a conundrum: how to promote outdoor activities without exposing people to greater risk of inhaling pollution?12 Old age, obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and other conditions that benefit from exercise may be made worse by pollutants and heat stress from urban heat-islands— two things likely to be aggravated by global warming.13 Fortunately, a study published by Andersen et al. in June 2015 suggests that mortality is reduced by exercise even in moderately polluted areas.14 Nevertheless, planners need to be mindful in channeling active transport away from pollution and heat risks.

Cleaning Up Our Energy According to the WHO, air pollution from the combustion of wood and fossil fuels today kills around seven million people annually, including around four million from contaminated air indoors.15 The combustion of coal and petroleum products releases particulates into the air that, when inhaled, raise the risk of cardiopulmonary diseases, including lung cancer.16 The use of coal has been linked to reduced lung development, a higher rate of heart attacks, and impaired intellectual development.17

Dravium Polcaro

Hubway provides bicycles for rental throughout the city of Boston. Such efforts to promote cycling in cities can improve the health of residents.

Coal mining is associated with cardiovascular, kidney, and lung diseases such as pneumoconiosis (“black lung”) and comes with higher risks of accident and injury than renewable or nuclear energy.18,19 Even setting aside climate change, the switch to clean, low- and zero-emissions energy would deliver enormous social benefits to society, including better air quality.

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Switching to cleaner power sources can substantially reduce these health risks. European and North American studies show that economies decoupled from fossil fuels would see tens of thousands fewer lives ended prematurely each year.20,21 Reducing the emissions of short-lived pollutants, principally black carbon (soot and other particulates from fossil fuels

Perspectives and wood), methane, and ground-level ozone will significantly improve population health outcomes.22 Moreover, reduced disease burdens free up healthcare providers, families, and employees, reducing financial and time strains on health systems, communities, and other institutions.23,24 One review of the economic value of the health co-benefits accrued through improved air quality in the United States suggests an average benefit corresponding to nearly USD$50 for every metric ton less emitted carbon dioxide.25

Winning Health Benefits from Energy-Efficient Buildings Efficiency improvements in heating, cooling, and lighting buildings can relieve occupants of a host of physical ailments, as well as reduce the incidence of allergies. For example, retrofitting housing in the United Kingdom to highenergy efficiency standards would not only shrink the UK’s carbon footprint, but also reduce residents’ exposure to indoor pollutants. This is particularly important in minimizing health risks to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and children. However, it is crucial that the retrofitting is properly implemented, lest insufficient ventilation could result in substantial negative effects on health.26 The International Energy Agency reports that when the health dividends are taken into account, the rate of return on retrofitting investments is as high as four to one.27 Furthermore, the benefits could translate into productivity and other economic gains with one European building modernization study suggesting it is possible to generate an annual saving of up to USD$260 billion within the European Union.28 Ratcheting up the energy efficiency of offices, homes, hospitals, commercial centers, etc. would therefore seem to be a high priority for the development agenda.

Water and Health in a Warming World A rapidly changing climate is likely to compound problems with access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene—all recognized as cornerstones of public health, equity, and poverty alleviation.29 According to the World Bank, currently 1.6 billion people live in parts of the world where water is extremely scarce.30 By 2025, this number is expected to grow to 2.8 billion. Rising average temperatures and shifting weather patterns are set to increase water scarcity in some areas, affecting food security and nutrition. In coastal areas, contamination of water resources by saltwater intrusion is likely to become a greater risk to health and food production as sea levels rise.

Towards a Climate-Sensitive Food System While highly productive, the modern global food and farming system is nevertheless a significant contributor to environmental degradation, including climate change.31 Livestock production, in particular, is a major source of methane and nitrous oxide emissions through the use of fertilizers.32 While changes in production systems and supply chains could potentially make a significant dent in the sector’s emissions profile, changes in consumption will be important, too.33,34 In affluent countries and those with fast-rising incomes, moderating the consumption of animal products (in particular, red meat), while raising fruit and vegetable consumption will help to curb rising rates of obesity, ischemic heart disease, and stroke incidences, as well as reduce the incidence of colorectal cancers.35 Conversely, urban farming is linked to a range of health and community benefits, including provision of fresh

healthy food, exercise, socializing, green space, reduced private motor vehicle use, less air pollution, and more.36 That said, urban farming is not without potential drawbacks. Participants will need to take steps to minimize the risks from food that has been contaminated by pollution,37 as well as address the potential risk of water contamination from excess nutrients.

Capturing the Health Dividends of Climate Action Historically, experts and policymakers have been successful in establishing international strategies to tackle major challenges to human health. The rise of climate change as the overarching global problem of the 21st century brings home just how interdependent the health, sustainable development, and environmental agendas are. Recognizing the health (and hence the economic) co-benefits of a variety of climate-related actions may well assist in getting those actions realized, with policymakers and investors looking for win-win outcomes. Needless to say, it behooves experts and practitioners in health, sustainable development, and climate change to work more closely together to make sure multiple benefits are recognized and, wherever possible, delivered. References 1. Haines, A., A. Whitmee, and R. Horton. Planetary health: a call for papers. Lancet 384 (2014): 223–249. 2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 2013). 3. Hales, S., S. Kovats, S. Lloyd, and D. CampbellLendrum. Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Selected Causes of Death, 2030s and 2050s (World Health Organization, Geneva, 2014). 4. Watts, N. et al. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. Lancet, 1 [online] (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(15)60854-6.

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Perspectives 5. Ban, K. The Road to Dignity by 2030: Ending Poverty, Transforming All Lives and Protecting the Planet (United Nations, New York, 2014). 6. Patz, J.A. et al. Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health, JAMA 312 (2014). 7. Remais, J.V. et al. Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges, Environmental Health Perspectives 122 (2014). 8. Dora, C. et al. Indicators linking health and sustainability in the post-2015 development agenda, Lancet 385 (2015). 9. Macmillan, A. et al. The societal costs and benefits of commuter bicycling: simulating the effects of specific policies using system dynamics modeling, Environmental Health Perspectives 122 (2014). 10. Lim, S.S. et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990– 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet 380 (2012). 11. Hunter, R.F. et al. The Impact of Interventions to Promote Physical Activity in Urban Green Space: A Systematic Review and Recommendations for

Linda

Future Research. Social Science & Medicine 124 (2015): 246–256. 12. Giles, L.V. and M.S. Koehle. The health effects of exercising in air pollution. Sports Med 44 (2014):

New crops are planted with shade cloth barriers at City Farm in Chicago. The 1.5 acre area is owned by the city and provided rent-free as a community garden space. Urban farming can provide a range of health and community benefits.

223–249. 13. Watts, N. et al. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. Lancet 1

Mitigation. (Organization for Economic Cooperation

[online] (2015) (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-

and Development, Paris, 2000).

6736(15)60854-6).

22. Scovronick, N. et al. Reduce short-lived climate

14. Andersen, Z.L. et al. A study of the combined effects of physical activity and air pollution on mortality in elderly urban residents: the Danish diet, cancer, and

parametric, model, and valuation challenges, Environmental Health Perspectives 122 (2014). 30. Water and Climate Change. World Bank Group

pollutants for multiple benefits. Lancet (2015) (doi:

[online] (2015) http://water.worldbank.org/topics/

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61043-1).

water-resources-management/water-and-climate-

23. Cifuentes, L. et al. Assessing the health benefits

change. 31. Watts, N. et al. Health and climate change: policy

health cohort. Environmental Health Perspectives 123

of urban air pollution reductions associated with

(2015): 557–563.

climate change mitigation (2000–2020): Santiago,

responses to protect public health. Lancet 1

São Paulo, Mexico City, and New York City. Environ

[online] (2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-

15. WHO. Burden of disease from Ambient Air Pollution

Health Perspectives 109 (2001): S419–25.

for 2012 (World Health Organization, Geneva, 2012).

24. Bell, M.L. et al. Ancillary human health benefits of

6736(15)60854-6. 32. Agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions on the rise.

improved air quality resulting from climate change

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United

Gottlieb. Coal’s Assault on Human Health. Physicians

mitigation. Environmental Health 7 (2008): 41.

Nations [online] (2015) http://www.fao.org/news/

for Social Responsibility [online] (2009) http://www.

25. Nemet, G.F. et al. Implications of improving air

16. Lockwood, A.H., K. Welker-Hood, M. Rauch, and B.

quality co-benefits into climate change policy-

psr.org/assets/pdfs/psr-coal-fullreport.pdf.

making. Environmental Research Letters 5, 014007

17. Hendryx, M. and M.M. Ahern. Relations between

(2010).

Health Indicators and Residential Proximity to Coal Mining in West Virginia. American Journal of Public

26. Hamilton, I. et al. Health effects of home energy efficiency interventions in England: a modelling

Health (2008): 669–671.

study. BMJ 5, e007298 (2015).

18. Wellenius, G.A., J. Schwartz, and M.A. Mittleman. Air pollution and hospital admissions for

27. IEA. Capturing the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency

story/en/item/216137/icode/. 33. Stehfest, E. et al. Climate benefits of changing diet. Climatic Change 95 (2009): 83–102. 34. McMichael, A.J., J.W. Powles, C.D. Butler, and R. Uauy. Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health. Lancet 370 (2007): 1253–63. 35. Friel, S. et al. Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: food and

ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke among medicare

(International Energy Agency/Organization for

agriculture. Lancet 374 (2009): 2016–25.

beneficiaries. Stroke 36 (2005): 2549–2553.

Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris,

36. Wolf, K.L. and A.S. Robbins. Metro nature,

2014).

19. Castelden, W.M. et al. The mining and burning of coal: effects on health and the environment. Medical

28. Water and Climate Change. World Bank Group [online] (2015) http://water.worldbank.org/topics/

Journal of Australia 195 (2011): 333–5. 20. Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 2000).

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Environmental Health Perspectives 123 (2015). 37. Przybysz, A., A. Saebo, H.M. Hanslin, and S.W.

water-resources-management/water-and-climate-

Gawronski. Accumulation of particulate matter

change.

and trace elements on vegetation as affected by

29. Remais, J.V. et al. Estimating the health effects of

21. Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas

environmental health, and economic value.

greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing

pollution level, rainfall and the passage of time Science of the Total Environment 481 (2014): 360–369.

Sibanda, L.M. and S.N. Mwamakamba. (2016). Africa’s “Rainbow Revolution:” Feeding a Continent and the World in a Changing Climate. Solutions 7(3): 25–29. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/Africas-rainbow-revolution-feeding-a-continent-and-the-world-in-a-changing-climate/

Perspectives Africa’s “Rainbow Revolution:” Feeding a Continent and the World in a Changing Climate by Lindiwe Majele Sibanda and Sithembile Ndema Mwamakamba

FANRPAN

A woman rice farmer in Morogoro, Tanzania.

griculture is the backbone of the African economy. According to the World Bank,1 two out of every three Africans are employed in the agriculture sector, producing about a third of the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP). While overall growth in agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa almost doubled from the 1980s to the mid-2000s, it is still far outpaced by current (let alone emerging) demand and reliant, so far, on the unsustainable extension of farmland. The result is that many countries are already coming up against limits to growth.2

Today, Africa remains the continent with the highest number of hungry and malnourished people. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, more than one in four people remain chronically undernourished in Sub-Saharan Africa,2 home to over a quarter of the world’s 800 million hungry.3 Shifting rainfall and other consequences of climate change could add about 130 million more by 2050.4 Even without global warming, shifts in demography and demand will place increasing pressure on African food and farming systems.

Yet, despite its present predicament and contrary to widely held stereotypes, Africa does not lack for natural capital. It is widely agreed that the continent is, as a whole, endowed with rich soils, ample water supplies, and an amenable climate, which allow it not only to feed its peoples, but to service a wider world eager for its agrifood exports.5 There is an opportunity to promote a higher performing agriculture—by Africans, for Africans. With two-thirds of Africans’ livelihoods dependent on farming, a boost to

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Perspectives agricultural productivity will propel the drive towards a suite of key development goals, including reduced malnutrition and poverty alleviation. Sadly, African governments have long neglected agriculture and, until recently, have failed to create the policy and regulatory conditions that favor more sustainable, more productive agriculture.6 In the last decade, however, we have begun to see a turnaround.

In Africa in 1994, Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu popularized the term Rainbow Nation to capture the multicultural nature of the post-independence South Africa.9 It is, therefore, fitting that smallholder farmers leapfrog from green, blue, and white to champion Africa’s own “Rainbow Revolution” to feed the current populations and generations to come. The bulk (80 percent) of these sub-Saharan farmers typically

Specifically for agriculture, the vision for 2063 is to have banished the hand hoe! African Agriculture at a Crossroads Asia’s Green Revolution of the 1960s was led by public institutions with investments in irrigated large farms supported by improved technology for seeds, pesticides, and fertilizer to promote cereal production.7 A key lesson, however, is that rapid productivity growth requires not just techno-fixes, but a supportive policy environment tailored to local conditions. Since the 1960s, India has seen the White Revolution and the Blue Revolution focused on increasing production of grains, milk, and fish. In 2000, the Government of India launched its first national agriculture policy, which introduced the “Rainbow Revolution” aimed at sustaining the country’s GDP growth at 6.5 percent. The new Rainbow Revolution in India was about reducing costs while promoting increased soil health and agricultural productivity and minimizing environmental damage from fertilizer overuse.8

farm on less than two hectares of land and are producing a variety of commodities that include cereals, fisheries, livestock, and trees; mostly under rain fed conditions. This grassroots movement needs to be reciprocated from top-down by policymakers.10 In 2003, African heads of state signed the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Plan (CAADP): a made-in-Africa solution aimed at improving food security and incomes in the continent’s largely agrarian economies. Under this plan, governments committed to raising the productivity of African agriculture within five years, by at least six percent per year by 2008.11 Thus far, only a few countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, Malawi, Niger, and Senegal) have met or surpassed the target, but most have made noteworthy progress, even so. Governments also agreed to commit a minimum of 10 percent of their national budgets to agriculture (a significant improvement over today’s roughly five percent

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average).12 Again, while many have fallen short of the goal, it has nevertheless served to drive considerable progress. Crucially, CAADP has brought together not just governments, but regional bodies, donors, agriculturists, and other stakeholders. Together, they have established four continent-wide priorities or “pillars” for investment and action. The pillars focus on agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and livestock production, and aim to: • Extend sustainable land management and reliable water control systems to new areas, by, for example, improving access to irrigation. • Increase market access through improved rural infrastructure and other trade-related activities. • Increase the supply of food and cut hunger by lifting smallholder productivity, and improving emergency preparedness and response. • Promote agricultural systems research, disseminating appropriate technologies, and fostering farm-level adoption. While CAADP’s aims are not very new, the fact that Africans, not outsiders, are organizing to make these aims a reality is new. CAADP has been instrumental in putting agriculture at the center of the development agenda, with multi-stakeholder partnerships and investments gravitating around national food and agriculture plans, and a greater overall effort now mobilized. CAADP has also encouraged and facilitated evidencebased planning and review, driving mutual accountability for actions and results. To date, 40 African Union (AU) member states have signed CAADP compact agreements, 28 of which

Perspectives

FANRPAN

Harvested rice in Morogoro, Tanzania.

have formal national agriculture and food security investment plans. These documents have become countries’ medium-term expenditure frameworks for agriculture, imbedding improved agricultural planning in government business. Even though only 13 out of 53 countries have so far met the 10 percent budgetary target, average national expenditure on agriculture has nearly doubled to over seven percent per year since 2003.13 Under the leadership of the AU, African heads of state have put together a new development

framework, Agenda 2063, which serves as both a vision statement and an action plan. Agenda 2063 calls on all sectors of African society to “work together to build a prosperous and united Africa based on shared values and a common destiny.” Specifically for agriculture, the vision for 2063 is to have banished the hand hoe! African leaders, through Agenda 2063, have committed to have Africa’s agriculture completely modernized. Science and technology will take center stage to make the agriculture sector profitable and attractive to the continent’s youth and women.14

Managing the Climate Risk to African Agriculture Africa’s climate is changing. While the uncertainties are many and large, “agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand”.15 According to a recent report to the World Bank,16 rainfall patterns are predicted to shift markedly, broadly increasing in East Africa while dropping by as much as 30 percent in southern Africa by the 2080s. Arid lands are expected

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Perspectives to grow by the 2040s, with drought more commonplace and arable areas contracting. Moreover, maize, wheat, and sorghum are sensitive to rising temperatures, and with more frequent and more intense heat extremes, productivity of these staples is expected to fall. Currently, few smallholders have the capacity to adapt to these sorts of changes. Without action, climate change is expected to severely compromise the continent’s food security.17 The new narrative is climate-smart agriculture, a set of practices and technologies that empower smallholder farmers through more profitable crop and livestock management, better landscape-level planning, more efficient use of natural resources, reduced emissions, and better understanding of new climatic realities and risks.18 The approach encourages learning and collaboration between practitioners, researchers, NGOs, and other stakeholders. With rising awareness of the risks, African countries have begun to develop concerted plans, prioritizing adaptation and participating in global efforts for climate change mitigation. Both adaptation and mitigation represent opportunities to promote sustainable development on the continent. In Malabo in 2014, the 31st AU Summit delivered a clear resolve to act on the nexus between agriculture and climate risk. Heads of state endorsed the New Partnership for Africa’s Development program on agriculture and climate change.19 The program includes components on women’s empowerment, augmented support for smallholder farmers, and an African Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Coordination Platform. As a result, the African Climate-Smart Agriculture Alliance (ACSAA) was set up to realize the AU’s goal of at least 25 million

FANRPAN

A smallholder rice farmer thrashes harvested rice in Morogoro, Tanzania.

farm households practicing climatesmart agriculture by 2025. ACSAA seeks to leverage policy, technical, and financial support for grassroots programs and initiatives to drive the widespread adoption of CSA in SubSaharan Africa.20 This is the first time that the AU and CAADP have explicitly called on international NGOs, whose location in communities means they are often best placed to deliver pro-climate smart agriculture extension services.

From Little Things Big Things Grow Africa’s 175 million smallholder farmers occupy four out of five farms below the Sahara. It is with them that change should start to meet existing and emerging food security challenges. Governments and intergovernmental endeavors, like CAADP, should serve to create the space and provide the assistance farmers need. A decade of CAADP experience has demonstrated that Africa, as a continent, has the homegrown wherewithal to make positive change.

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Of course, the success of CAADP will be best measured by on-ground results: the modernization of African agriculture, using combined scientific and indigenous resources, and rendering farming profitable and attractive to women and young people. The good news is that policymakers and Africa’s development partners do view smallholders as the driving force for economic growth and poverty reduction in Africa. While smallholders across the continent have begun to embrace climate-smart agriculture, for Africa to raise its exports in an increasingly hostile climate is no small challenge. The widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices will require a conducive public policy environment and strong public support, along with greater access to improved technologies and local and international markets. This means that grassroots practitioners and country and continental-scale policymakers and business leaders must work together much more for Africa to not only feed itself, but the rest of the world.

Perspectives

FANRPAN

The Namibia Green Scheme Policy is working to increase areas under irrigation, in part by installing watering devices, as pictured.

References 1. World Bank. The World Bank and Agriculture in Africa (The World Bank Group, Washington DC, 2013). 2. Food and Agriculture Organization. Regional

com/abstract=2646432.

14. Agenda 2063 Second Edition, August 2014 Popular

9. Valji,N. Creating the Nation: The Rise of Violent

version [online] (2014) http://agenda2063.au.int/

Xenophobia in the New South Africa. Unpublished

Overview of Food Insecurity: Africa (Food and

Masters Thesis, York University Centre for the Study

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,

of Violence and Reconciliation (2003).

Accra, 2015). 3. Bain, L.E. et al. Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa: burden, causes and prospects. The Pan African Medical Journal (PAMJ) 15 (2013): 120. 4. World Resources Institute. World Resources Report

Bank Group, Washington DC, 2012). Building an Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. New York Academy of Sciences 1136 (2008): 233–242. 7. Hazell, P. The Asian Green Revolution (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2009). 8. Singh, R.K.P. Rainbow Revolution in Bihar: Problem and Prospect [online] (August 18, 2015) http://ssrn.

16. World Bank. Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience (A report

Nairobi, 2014). 11. Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Africa Agriculture Development Programme

6. Toenniessen, G., A. Adesina, and J. Devriesa.

agriculture. PNAS 108 (2011): 4313.

smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (AGRA,

Washington DC, 2015). 5. World Bank. Africa Can Help Feed Africa (The World

Campen. Climate change risks for African

agriculture status report: Climate change and

Programme. Introducing the Comprehensive

version_05092014_EN.pdf. 15. Müller, C., W. Cramer, W.L. Hare, and H. Lotze-

10. Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa. Africa

2013–2015: Creating a sustainable food future (WRI,

en/sites/default/files/agenda2063_popular_

for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics) (World Bank, Washington DC, 2013).

(New Partnership for Africa’s Development,

17. Lipper, L. Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nature Climate Change 4 (2014): 1068–1072.

Johannesburg, 2005). 12. Agenda 2063. About Agenda 2063 [online] (2013)

18. New Partnership For Africa’s Development. History

http://agenda2063.au.int/en/about.

[online] http://www.nepad.org/history.

13. Five out of ten? Assessing progress towards the

19. Synthesis of the Malabo Declaration on African

AU’s 10% budget target for agriculture. Act!onAid [online] (2009) http://www.actionaid.org/sites/

Agriculture and CAADP [online] http://caadp.net/ sites/default/files/malabo_synthesis_english_0.pdf.

files/actionaid/assessing_progress_towards_the_

20. Africa CSA Alliance, What Is Climate Smart

aus_10percent_budget_target_for_agriculture_

Agriculture? [online] http://africacsa.org/#what-

june_2010.pdf.

is-it.

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Andersson, J.C.M., B. Arheimer, and N. Hjerdt. (2016). Combine and Share Essential Knowledge for Sustainable Water Management. Solutions 7(3): 30–32. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/combine-and-share-essential-knowledge-for-sustainable-water-management/

Perspectives Combine and Share Essential Knowledge for Sustainable Water Management by Jafet C.M. Andersson, Berit Arheimer, and Niclas Hjerdt

Seasonal distribution 16000

Q (m3/s)

With dams Naturalized

12000 8000 4000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 Adapted from Arheimer & Lindström2

Figure 1. The 5,300 largest dams in Sweden (left), and the impact of flow regulations on the seasonal distribution of runoff from Sweden to the surrounding seas (right).

ow can we better comprehend and respond to sustainability challenges in the water domain? Operational water analysts around the world face this question every day. In Sweden, a key sustainability challenge for national water managers is to improve ecosystem health. The aim is for all water bodies to obtain “good status” as stipulated by the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive regarding their capacity to support natural life, biodiversity, and legitimate water uses.1

The most prevalent problem for Swedish inland waters is physical alteration of the natural flow regime as a consequence of drainage, dredging, regulation, and thousands of dams (Figure 1). On average, 19 percent of the total runoff from the land surface to the sea is redistributed due to these extensive physical alterations.3 Other major problems include eutrophication (overabundance of nutrients leading to algal blooms, see Figure 2) and invasive species (e.g. the Zebra mussel that came to Sweden in the 1920s through international shipping).

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To identify knowledge gaps and information needed to better respond to these challenges, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) has held regular meetings with key regional water managers across the country since 2011. The meetings have gradually become more frequent (currently held once every month) and more operative (i.e. focusing on the concrete needs of practitioners). As a general response to water managers’ needs, SMHI developed a high-resolution numeric model simulating water and nutrient cycles across Sweden.4

Perspectives One specific need that water managers identified was to better comprehend, monitor, and characterize the ecological status of Sweden’s numerous water bodies. Meaningful sampling requires precise timing of hydrological monitoring (e.g. the onset of the annual flow peak), which is difficult given the resources and number of water bodies involved. As a solution, SMHI constructed a spatially explicit and openly accessible, tailored forecasting tool based on the numeric model.5 An essential component in the tool’s development was the combining of the expertise of hydrologists, who provided forecasts, with that of aquatic ecologists, who identified critical flow conditions and thresholds against which to relate the forecasts. The tool is now used by regional government boards to target monitoring toward desired flow conditions. The open sharing of this tool increased the resolution of Swedish hydrological forecasts available to the public by a factor of 36, from 1,001 catchments to 36,693 catchments. During 2014, the tool was used about 60 times per day during an average weekday. Given that there are only 20 Swedish regional water management bodies, it seems likely that the open sharing of this publicly financed tool provides added value beyond its core audience. A second need identified by water managers was to improve the effectiveness of strategies to reduce the nutrient pollution that causes eutrophication. As budgets are always limited, it is essential to target regions and sectors with the highest potential for downstream impact. The SMHI solution was to develop a scenario tool to assess the potential impact of remediation measures in different sectors and locations.6 Here, the expertise of hydrologists, water

chemists, and web developers are combined to simulate water, nitrogen, and phosphorous cycles and visualize them interactively online. The tool provides the estimated baseline nutrient loads and source distribution (sector, location, and hydrography), as well as a simple function to assess the downstream impact of altered loads. Around half of the Swedish regional government boards used the tool to assist with planning eutrophication remediation measures.

has been a hallmark of the United States government for a number of years, and with the creation of the EU INSPIRE directive in 2007, which looks to create an EU-wide data infrastructure for the sharing of environmental information by 2019, European datasets are gradually opening up more and more, inspiring innovative applications. Open software is by no means new, but it is increasingly used by national agencies and companies alike, speeding

Making the scenario tool openly accessible is a way to increase transparency for all stakeholders regarding the knowledge foundation on which regulation is based. Implementation of eutrophication remediation measures is typically very sensitive since it involves topdown regulation of, for example, agricultural fertilization and private sewage treatment facilities. Making the scenario tool openly accessible is a way to increase transparency for all stakeholders regarding the knowledge foundation on which regulation is based. We hope the open access can contribute to an improved understanding and acceptance of remediation measures. There is, however, also a risk that an over-reliance on the tool— which has a number of uncertainties (e.g. nutrient states)—could backfire if implemented nutrient reductions do not lead to desired downstream results. How can these solution examples be generalized and applied on larger scales and in other areas? We think a key component is to make knowledge more openly available, e.g. through open data, open software, and open publications. Open data

up service delivery across the globe. At the same time, the open publication of synthesized knowledge has increased exponentially in the last decade.7 SMHI is currently leading the SWITCH-ON initiative, which seeks to improve water research and management practices by developing, testing, and utilizing the information offered by open knowledge. SWITCH-ON provides a metadata portal of open datasets, aiming to make open data less scattered and easier to find. The initiative also provides a virtual laboratory for collaborative water research, aiming to improve transparency, repeatability, and error detection by using common protocols (specifying experimental design and quality assurance), versioned datasets and algorithms, as well as regular interaction. In addition, SWITCH-ON explores the potential advantages of open data for commercial applications within water management.

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Perspectives

Neil Williamson

Figure 2. Algal blooms in a pond beside an old watermill.

To better comprehend and respond to sustainability challenges in the water domain, our Swedish experience suggests that sustainability initiatives should focus on: (i) essential knowledge (not marginal details, but the core needs of society); (ii) combining knowledge across disciplines and other boundaries; and (iii) sharing knowledge, not just in open publications, but also through open data, software, web tools, mobile apps, machine-to-machine interfaces, etc. We believe this approach could also be beneficial in other locations and scientific domains.

Acknowledgements We thank the Swedish Government for funding the water management tools and the European Union for funding the SWITCH-ON project (grant agreement No. 603587). References 1. The European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. Directive 2000/60/EG Of The European Parliament And Of The Council Of 23 October 2000 Establishing A Framework For Community Action In The Field Of Water Policy (2000). 2. SMHI. Svarwebb - Dammregister [online] (2015)

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http://vattenwebb.smhi.se/svarwebb/.

3. Arheimer, B. and G. Lindström. Electricity vs Ecosystems – understanding and predicting hydropower impact on Swedish river flow, in Proc. ICWRS2014 364 (IAHS Press, Bologna, Italy, 2014): 313–319. 4. Lindström, G. et al. Development and testing of the HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) water quality model for different spatial scales. Hydrology Research 41 (2010): 295–319. 5. SMHI. Vattenwebb - Hydrologiskt nuläge [online] (2015) http://vattenwebb.smhi.se/hydronu/. 6. SMHI. Vattenwebb - Analys- och scenarioverktyg för övergödning i sötvatten [online] (2015) http:// vattenwebb.smhi.se/scenario/. 7. Redhead, C. Growth of Fully OA Journals Using a CCBY License - OASPA. Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association [online] (2014) http://oaspa.org/growthof-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/.

Kammen, D. (2016). Empowering Communities with Sustainable Energy. Solutions 7(2): 33–37. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/empowering-communities-with-sustainable-energy/

Perspectives Empowering Communities with Sustainable Energy by Daniel M. Kammen

f all the global challenges facing humanity in the 21st century, two seem likely to overshadow the rest: persistent, widespread energy poverty (and associated lost economic opportunities), and rapid disruption of the global climate. These crises are inexorably linked. A lack of modern energy services impacts every aspect of life, and the legacy and future of fossil-fuel use threatens the climate for everyone, but the poor most immediately and most acutely, since they are the most vulnerable to environmental disruptions. Recent advances in clean energy technologies and market innovation to support clean energy dissemination have resulted in reduced planning for universal, clean energy access even while many hurdles still stand in the way of our implementing this future. Mini-grids and products for individual end-use of energy, such as solar home systems and pay-as-you-go solar energy products, have benefitted from dramatic price falls and advances in the performance of solid state electronics, cellular communications technologies, and electronic banking as well as a sharp decline in solar energy costs.1 This mix of technological and market innovation is contributing to a vibrant new energy services sector that, in many nations, is outpacing the growth of traditional centralized electricity grids. Around the world, access to electricity is strongly linked to a wide range of social goods. When people have access to electricity, their gross national income, life expectancy, educational attainment, gender equality in educational opportunity, and the percentage of students who reach key milestones goes up while the

Russell Watkins/DFID

A woman in Bariadi, Tanznia displays her solar lighting kit.

proportion of people who are poor or affected by childhood mortality both decline (Figure 1).2 Grid expansion has roughly kept pace with the increase in global population, but has not significantly decreased the persistent gap. About 1.5 billion people in 2013 were completely off-grid, mostly in rural areas and underserved city fringes. The electricity-poor rely mostly on kerosene and traditional biomass, including dung and agricultural residues. But, even as grids expand and the population grows, this access gap persists. Traditional grid extension programs will be too slow to reach these communities, relegating a very large number of people in the neediest

countries to lives with substantially fewer options for self-development. Even in the developed world, many connected people experience significant power outages from 20 to 200 or more days per year, and current forecasts suggest this number could remain roughly unchanged until the year 2030. One opportunity to cut into the large numbers of people who have no access, and to improve the reliability of the current and emerging grids, is to take greater advantage of the decreased cost and increased functions possible with the new generation of communication technologies and the data capacity of modern information systems.

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Perspectives

% 20

100

Electricity Access (%)

100

Proportion of people living on < $1/day (PPP)

Maternal Mortality Ratio

Electricity Access (%)

100

600

R = 0.69

0 200

20 40 60 80

R = 0.72

1000

Electricity Access (%)

deaths / 100,000 births

Electricity Access (%)

R = 0.66

0.6 0.5 0.4 0

20 40 60 80

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

women:men enrollment ratio

0.9 0.8 0.7

R = 0.52

0.3

Human Development Index

R2 = 0.78

Proportion of grade 1 pupils who complete Primary Ed.

Gender Parity Index in Tertiary Ed.

Human Development Index

100

Electricity Access (%)

Alstone, P., D. Gershenson, and D.K. Kammen

Figure 1. The Human Development Index (HDI) and various other metrics of quality of life plotted against the percentage of the population with electricity access. Each data point is derived from country-level data at a specific point in time. Today, roughly 1.5 billion people go without access to electricity.

Off-Grid Electricity is Surging Lately, new, off-grid electricity systems have emerged that do not rely on the same infrastructure as traditional, centralized power generation. As previously noted, this is as much due to advances in information technology and reduced solar energy costs as it is to innovations in energy. The traditional model of central-station energy systems is being replaced by a new wave of distributed energy providers. Traditional dynamo generators and arc lighting perform best at large scale, and indeed have become the mainstay of large-scale electric utilities. The classic utility model of a one-way flow of energy from a power plant to consumers is now rapidly changing. The combination of low-cost solar, micro-hydro, and other generation technologies with the electronics

needed to manage small-scale power grids has changed village energy. Highperformance, low-cost solar generation paired with advanced batteries and controllers provide scalable systems across much larger power ranges than central generation, from megawatts down to fractions of a watt.3 Rapid improvements in the efficiency of lighting, televisions, refrigeration, fans, and integrated information and communication technology (ICT, as seen in Figure 2) systems have culminated in a super-efficiency trend. The fast technological pace is set to continue, driving advances in clean energy both on- and off-grid. This process has been particularly important for households and villages where solar power and mini-grids are increasingly a reality, as well as for individual users.4,5

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Diversified Energy Solutions for the Unelectrified Armed with an array of modern smallscale technologies, aid organizations, governments, academia, and the private sector are working to close the gap between the electrical haves and have-nots. One such effort has been the introduction of low-cost, highly efficient “pico-lighting” devices powered by very small solar panels. Together with solar home systems and community-scale micro- and minigrids, the devices are already making a difference. Decentralized energy is not a complete substitute for a reliable grid connection, but it represents a good platform on which to establish more distributed energy services. Meeting peoples’ basic lighting and communication needs is an important

Perspectives

Daniel M. Kammen

Figure 2. A village micro-grid energy and telecommunications system in the Crocker Highlands of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The system provides household energy services for communications via satellite, water pumping for fishponds (center) and for refrigeration. The diversified supply includes micro-hydro and solar generation. One small panel is shown here while others are distributed on rooftops.

first step on the modern electricity service ladder.6 Eliminating kerosene lighting from a household improves the occupants’ health and safety while providing more and better lighting. In Africa alone, fuel-based lighting is a USD$20 billion industry and big opportunities exist to reduce energy costs for the poor and improve quality of service. Charging a rural or village mobile or cell phone can cost USD$5 to $10 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) at a payfor-service charging station, but less

than USD$0.50/kWh via an off-grid product or mini-grid. This frees income and often leads to greater usage of mobile phones and other small devices. Overall, efficient end-uses deliver better health, education, and poverty reduction in a given household. Decentralized power can also make possible a wide range of services, such as television, refrigeration, fans, heating, and air-conditioning (power-level, service quality, and end-use efficiency depending).

Experience with the people who are off-grid confirms the exceptional value derived from the first increment of energy service. For example, only tiny amounts of energy equivalent to 0.2 to 1 Wh (which on grid would cost only USD$0.10 to $1.00) per day are needed for mobile phone charging or the first 100 lumen-hours of light. This is little more than the energy draw of traditional light-bulbs. Given the cost and energy service levels that fuelbased lighting and fee-based mobile

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Perspectives

Russell Watkins/DFID

An M-Power Off Grid electric vendor near Arusha, Tanzania.

phone charging offer as a baseline, simply shifting this expenditure to a range of modern energy solutions could yield a much better service or significant cost savings over the lifetime of a lighting product (typically three to five years). Mirroring the early development of electric utilities, improvements in the underlying technology for decentralized power are also being combined with new business models, institutional and regulatory support, and integrated information technology systems.7,8 Historically, non-technical barriers have been impediments to widespread adoption of off-grid electricity, and in some cases they still are. A lack of investment capital hampers the establishment and expansion of private sector initiatives. Further, complex policy environments can impair

the entry of new, clean technologies and entrench old, dirty ones. Subsidies for liquid fuels for lighting can undermine the incentive to adopt electric lighting. The prevalence of imperfect or inaccurate information about quality or performance can lead to market spoiling,9 confusing consumers or simply keeping them in the dark about alternatives. In this regard, laboratories that test and rate the quality of lighting products and disseminate the results can prove invaluable. The Lighting Global program is one example of an effort that began as an industry watchdog and has now become an important provider of market insights and quality assurance for modern, off-grid lighting devices and systems, as well as a promoter of sustainability via partnerships with industry.10,11

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Where to from Here? An Action Agenda for Global Access to Clean Energy Demand for reliable, low-cost energy is booming—generated by the sheer diversity of new energy services available together with a rapidly rising demand for information, communications, water, health, and entertainment in villages worldwide. Once seen in diametric opposition to one another, soaring demand is actually proving to be a driver of clean energy uptake. How, then, can we leverage this momentum? 1. Establish clear goals at the local level. Universal energy access is the global goal by 2030,12 but establishing more near-term goals that encompass meaningful steps now will help by showing what is

Perspectives not simply because it is right, but because it is smart. Add to these goals a willingness to embrace diversified clean energy systems and we are on our way to lifting hundreds of millions out of energy poverty and unlocking enormous human potential. References 1. Zheng, C. and D. Kammen. An Innovation-Focused Roadmap for a Sustainable Global Photovoltaic Industry. Energy Policy 67 (2014): 159–169. 2. Alstone, P., D. Gershenson, and D.K. Kammen. Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change 5 (2015): 305–314. 3. Schnitzer, D. et al. Microgrids for Rural Electrification: A critical review of best practices based on seven case studies. United Nations Foundation [online] (2014) https://rael. berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ MicrogridsReportEDS.pdf. 4. Schnitzer, D. et al. Microgrids for Rural Electrification: A critical review of best practices based on seven case studies. United Nations Foundation [online] (2014) https://rael.

Russell Watkins/DFID

A woman and her daughter use a solar lighting kit to study at night in Bariadi, Tanzania.

berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ MicrogridsReportEDS.pdf. 5. Casillas, C. and D.M. Kammen. The energy-povertyclimate nexus. Science, 330 (2010): 1182.

possible and how. Cities and villages have begun audits of energy services, costs, and environmental impacts. A number of tools are often cited as excellent starting points, including the Cool Climate Network’s assessment tools and the HOMER software package used by many groups to design both local mini-grids and to plan and cost offgrid energy options.13,14 2. Empower villages as both designers and consumers of localized power. Circumstances vary greatly

with geography, but village-level strategies can be tailored using experience and instruments now available. Training and tools exist to help locals assess their clean energy resources, infrastructure needs, and, often the most neglected, but most important point, their social needs. Once an

assessment is complete, communities are eager to get underway.15 3. Make equity a central design consideration. Community energy solutions have the potential to liberate women entrepreneurs and disadvantaged ethnic minorities by tailoring user-materials and energy plans to meet particular cultural and linguistic needs. National programs often overlook local business specialties, local cooking customs, and other home energy needs. Thinking explicitly about this is both good business, and makes the solutions much more likely to be adopted.

6. Casillas, C. and D.M. Kammen. The energy-povertyclimate nexus. Science, 330 (2010): 1182. 7. Mileva, A., J.H. Nelson, J. Johnston, and D.M. Kammen. SunShot Solar Power Reduces Costs and Uncertainty in Future Low-Carbon Electricity Systems. Environmental Science & Technology 47 (2013): 9053–9060. 8. Sovacool, B.K. The political economy of energy poverty: A review of key challenges. Energy for Sustainable Development 16 (2012): 272–282. 9. Casillas, C. and D.M. Kammen. The energy-povertyclimate nexus. Science, 330 (2010): 1182. 10. Lighting Global [online] (2016) https://www. lightingglobal.org. 11. Mileva, A., J.H. Nelson, J. Johnston, and D.M. Kammen. SunShot Solar Power Reduces Costs and Uncertainty in Future Low-Carbon Electricity Systems. Environmental Science & Technology 47 (2013): 9053–9060. 12. SE4ALL. Global Tracking Framework (United Nations Foundation, New York, 2013). 13. Cool Climate Network [online] (2016) http://

We need goals that bridge the gap between local and global, ensuring local ownership of local energy problems and solutions, and embedding fairness in energy systems designs,

coolclimate.berkeley.edu. 14. Homer Energy [online] (2016) http://www. homerenergy.com. 15. Alstone, P., D. Gershenson, and D.K. Kammen. Decentralized energy systems for clean electricity access. Nature Climate Change 5 (2015): 305–314.

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Running, S.W. (2016). Producing Bioenergy in a Local Biosphere: Integrating Food and Energy Systems. Solutions 7(3): 38–41. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/producing-bioenergy-in-a-local-biosphere-integrating-food-and-energy-systems/

Perspectives Producing Bioenergy in a Local Biosphere: Integrating Food and Energy Systems by Steven W. Running

Kurt Stepnitz, Michigan State University Office of Biobased Technologies

A bioenergy crop production research field at Michigan State University’s W.K. Kellogg Biological Station.

he global scientific community first began to consider, in earnest, the Earth’s capacity to sustain humanity in the classic 1972 study Limits to Growth.1 The primitive model put forward by Meadows and colleagues used the best projected population and economic growth trajectories of the time to produce a model showing that, by the early 21st century, humanity would have begun bumping up against serious global limits, including energy and food. More recently, planetary boundary thinking has refreshed the original

conceptual basis of Limits to Growth,2 but the essential message is the same: we must learn to live more sustainably within the bounds of the global biosphere. In the last few decades, as climate change has become a more urgent problem, renewable energy generated from biological materials, or bioenergy, has been touted as a low- or zero-carbon alternative to fossil fuels. However, this solution has set up a clash between the natural resources of an expanding bioenergy sector and those of global food security.

38 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

Energy economists looking for pathways to a low-carbon world have assumed a massive acceleration in bioenergy production. Meanwhile, global food security experts search desperately for ways to feed more than nine billion people by mid-century.3-6 Can the biosphere accommodate both? Or, do we now face limits to continued growth in bioenergy? Will some sort of global land prioritization become necessary? Understanding the global potential for bioenergy means putting a figure on net primary production, that is, the

Perspectives overall carbon drawn by green plants from the air in a given period of time, stored as plant biomass. Global net primary production is estimated at about 54 petagrams (Pg) of carbon per year—a figure that has not changed much in the 35 years since satellites first began gathering the necessary global data. Annual global terrestrial plant growth is an important planetary boundary; a process sufficiently constrained by global geochemistry that it cannot be increased significantly.7 In other words, this is a potential limit to resource consumptive economic growth.

Land Available for Bioenergy is Limited The next question is how much of this plant biomass are humans using now? This is known as Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production and includes the total amount of food, paper, and wood products we consume, as well as feed given to livestock.8 Our best current estimate is that humanity consumes 38 percent of global plant biomass per year, which implies that our species still has 62 percent available for future use. However, it would be simplistic to presume that this means there is still more than ample land available for bioenergy production. A detailed analysis showed that what appears to be readily accessible plant biomass is actually a mix of unharvestable root growth, wilderness and protected areas, and marginal land on which the energy required for harvesting would exceed the energy gained. A more realistic estimate of potentially available terrestrial plant biomass, then, is about 10 percent, or 5 Pg.9 How far would this 5 Pg go in satisfying global energy demand? A rigorous study of global bioenergy potential found that, depending on the rate of use, bioenergy can satisfy at best

between 12 and 35 percent of current global energy demand.10 Many believe that biofuels such as ethanol from cellulosic waste (e.g. sawmill waste, forest residues, and waste paper) will provide much of this energy source. But, there is a struggle with optimizing chemical conversion efficiencies and identification of sufficiently dependable feedstock sources. Using food (such as corn) to generate biofuels has also proven to be politically and ethically risky as food prices inevitably increase, a burden borne disproportionately by poor people. Single-crop approaches to turning biomass into energy have been shown to be hard to bring to market.

experiments in modeling more efficient systems are showing impressive results. These take various biomass inputs, generate electric power and useable heat energy, and then route the waste and carbon dioxide through complex processes to generate various additional products. One example is the Green Powerhouse Prototype in Montana,11 which takes in a variety of feedstocks, primarily residue from forestry and agriculture, and generates electricity, syngas, and biochar via pyrolysis. The system directs both waste heat and CO2 to a greenhouse where vegetables are grown and algae are harvested for high protein feed for fish, among other

These new, integrated food-energy greenhouses can potentially produce commercial volumes of high-quality products, very efficiently, in virtually any location.

With the global population expected to increase 30 percent by 2050, food demand rising by 70–100 percent, and energy demand roughly doubling, if global biospheric plant growth cannot be significantly enhanced, then it seems that humanity is headed for a future where food and bioenergy compete for land and the annual plant production.

New Biosystems: Combining the Best of Engineering and Ecology Returning to some ecological systems thinking may be helpful. It might just be possible to devise bioenergy systems that, integrated with food production and other co-products, are overall more efficient, and this can become economically viable. Recent

things. Four different marketable products are generated: electricity, organic vegetables, soil conditioners, and bio-oils. Other recent advances in integrated biosystems like this include: • Hydroponic and aquaponic systems (or polycultural fisheries) that produce all of the nutrients required for crop fertilizers and irrigation. • Vertical growing systems that maximize production per square meter of growing space using LED lighting systems and climate control technologies. • A variety of renewable energy systems, such as biomass cogeneration, solar photovoltaics, passive solar design, wind power, etc.

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Perspectives

Kate Field

An aquaponic system at Nelson and Pade Aquaponic Technology Systems and Supplies. Aquaponic systems are polycultural fisheries that produce all of the nutrients required for crop fertilizers and irrigation.

• Permaculture or agro-ecological technologies, such as biochar, nutrient and water recycling, biodigestion, and microbial soil conditioning. These new, integrated food-energy greenhouses can potentially produce commercial volumes of high-quality products, very efficiently, in virtually any location. Their use of otherwise wasted plant residues, advanced growing techniques, biomass gasification, and thermal heating and cooling systems also serves to keep operating costs and carbon footprints low,

though initial infrastructure costs are high. Crucially, these systems can cut the land area for cultivation and the water used in irrigation by 90 percent compared to open-field crops. These biosystems are not meant to replace all open-field agriculture, but to aid in growing high-value crops in areas where the local climate would not otherwise support production, and to efficiently use plant residues now going into landfills or being burned. Further, because these biosystems can be located anywhere (although preferably near population centers), storage

40 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

and transport costs can be reduced compared to current transcontinental food distribution. Critical to the success of these biosystems is, first and foremost, proximity to ongoing biomass sources—be it forest residues, agricultural residues, food waste, or garbage. Ideally, this use of biomass would also serve to solve other resource problems. For example, the mountain pine beetle has killed millions of hectares of forest in the western United States and Canada. Conversely, forests are severely overgrown on many sites in semi-arid western North America, producing

Perspectives

The Green Power House

The Green Power House biosystem in Montana. Using a range of feedstocks and integrated processes, the biosystems successfully yield four different kinds of products while minimizing waste.

heightened future fire risk.12 Salvaging wood residue from forest fires and thinning activities simply for electric power production does not stack up economically as a stand-alone industry. Only an integrated system with multiple saleable products can be economically viable. Also, most intensively-managed bioenergy crops consume so much energy in production that final gains in carbon footprints are lost. It seems logical that by mimicking the biogeochemical cycling of natural ecosystems—where output from one process becomes input to the next, driven only by solar energy—we will produce the most efficient bioenergy systems with the least waste. Indeed, energy will be but one of an assortment of products. The key challenge is to make the economics of such

systems match their ecological efficiency. There is a long history of policy, regulations, protected monopolies, tax holidays, and the like that have built the current commodity economics that incentivize waste. If ecological efficiencies were valued correctly, and ecosystem degradation not externalized economically, the functional beauty of these integrated biosystems would be evident. Maybe then, the concept of garbage, whether tossed into the landfill or the atmosphere, will fade to become a quaint memory of the past.

1. Meadows, D.H. et al. The Limits to Growth (Potomac Associates—Universe Books, New York, 1972). humanity. Nature 461 (2009): 472–5. 3. Foley, J.A. et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478 (2011): 337–42.

Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8 (2013): 66428. 5. Tilman, D. et al. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. PNAS 108 (2011): 20260–4. 6. West, P.C. et al. Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment. Science 345 (2014): 325–8. 7. Running, S.W. A measurable planetary boundary for the biosphere. Science 337 (2012): 1458–9. 8. Krausmann, F. et al. Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century. PNAS 110 (2013): 10324–9. 9. Haberl, H. et al. Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050? Environmental Research Letters 8 (2013): 031004. 10. Smith, W.K., M. Zhao, and S.W. Running. Global Bioenergy Capacity as Constrained by Observed Biospheric Productivity Rates. BioScience 62 (2012):

References 2. Rockstrom, J. et al. A safe operating space for

4. Ray, D.K., N.D. Mueller, P.C. West, and J.A. Foley.

911–22. 11. Algae Aquaculture Technologies [online] (2016) http://www.algaeaqua.com/full/index.html. 12. Rasker, R. Resolving the increasing risk from wildfires in the American West. Solutions 6 (2015): 48–55.

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Lilleholt, L.C. (2016). Denmark’s Energy Revolution: Past, Present, and Future. Solutions 7(3): 42–45. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/denmarks-energy-revolution-past-present-and-future/

Perspectives Denmark’s Energy Revolution: Past, Present, and Future by Lars Christian Lilleholt

enmark’s energy revolution began with the shock of the 1970s oil crises, where prices quadrupled in a few days, and the country got the wake-up call it needed to start turning around its energy system. After four decades of progressive reforms—aimed first at securing supply and later at decarbonizing the economy—Denmark has become an example of how to transition to a low-carbon economy by combining market-based and regulatory approaches. Danes now enjoy a strong, secure energy supply and economic growth increasingly decoupled from energy consumption, and the country has set the goal of becoming independent of fossil fuels by 2050. To understand this transformation, we need to go back to the first oil crisis in 1973, when world oil prices spiked dramatically, and 90 percent of Danes’ energy supply was imported. In response to the crisis, Denmark’s policymakers turned to the rich oil and gas reserves of the North Sea in a bid for energy independence over the course of the 1980s (before climate science was fully understood). At the same time, a diversification process was started; oil was gradually in the first phase replaced with coal and natural gas and in the second phase added with and replaced by bioenergy and wind. District heating systems based on combined heat and power production were also expanded into homes and businesses. The oil crisis produced a strong social mandate for change, and forged a series of political national energy agreements using a holistic, integrative planning approach —something Denmark, to a degree, has pioneered.

Four decades of progress rests on parliament continuing to build crossparliamentary support. This political license, in turn, liberates policymakers to focus on the long-term. Denmark’s current energy 2012–2020 agreement continues the transformative process: redoubling the country’s deployment of renewable energy as fossil fuels are phased out.1 Today, around 40 percent of Denmark’s electricity supply is sourced from wind; which is a remarkable achievement given wind’s fitful nature. Greening the energy supply is one part of the strategy. The other is increased energy efficiency. By 2013, the country consumed about a third less energy per unit of GDP compared to 1990. Danes enjoy a high standard of living with a comparatively small carbon footprint. Denmark’s goal is to become independent of fossil fuels by 2050— a steep challenge. The government is pursuing a policy of “green realism” —focusing on cutting clean energy costs and raising competitiveness via market-based instruments. But, Denmark cannot do the job alone; a conducive international policy environment is needed, which is why Denmark actively seeks strong global climate action. Denmark actively worked to secure the ambitious global climate agreement at the UN climate conference in Paris in December 2015 (COP21). At the same time, Denmark cannot rely solely on the UN system to mitigate climate change. Denmark is already engaged in close bilateral cooperation with a number of emerging economies to promote the development of clean, efficient energy systems. In 2014,

42 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

Wind turbines in east Copenhagen.

Perspectives

CGP Grey / CGPGrey.com

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 43

Perspectives 1973–1990 Security of supply

1990–2001 Decarbonization

2001–2011 Market liberalization

2011–Current Renewed decarbonization focus

• Extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea

• First energy plan with CO2-reduction targets

• Liberalization of gas and electricity markets

• Establishment of nationwide natural gas transmission and distribution system

• Moratorium on new coal-fired plants

• No particular focus on decarbonization

• Current 2012–2020 energy agreement is ambitious, includes large investments in renewable energy and re-focus on energy efficiency

• Energy efficiency measures introduced • Further development of district heating system

• Decarbonization • Establishment through combined of the European heat and power and Emissions Trading renewable energy System • Various taxes and support schemes to support transformation

• Market-based incentives for offshore wind turbines

• Focus on significant reductions in GHG emissions.

• Energy efficient building standards

• First energy plan compiled (1976) Gross energy consumption 1972–2014

PJ 900

600

300

0 1972 '75 Oil

'80

'85 Natural Gas

'90

'95 Coal

'00

'05

'10

'14

Renewable Energy

A recent history of Danish energy economy and policy. Zeroing in on the long-term need to secure its energy supply against sudden shocks, but also recognizing the decarbonization imperative earlier than most, Danish policymakers forged not just a secure supply, but a more diverse, cleaner, and more efficient one as well. 44 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

Perspectives 3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

Kg CO2 / .05 USD

1.00

0.50

kr ai

na hi

a A fr h

ut So

V ie

si ne do

l ba lo G

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ex i

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The emission of CO2 compared to GDP. Denmark has effectively decoupled its prosperity from carbon, while maintaining and even improving social equity.

Denmark also exported energy technology to the value of DKK74.4 billion (USD$11.2 billion), and we have ambitious plans to keep expanding new energy technology markets. European solutions are also needed. Realizing the national 2050 goal means more exchange of supply with our neighbors to remedy fluctuations in clean energy supplies. Denmark needs to open up and, together with the rest of the EU, increase cross-border trade and market integration. The success of Danish energy policy is increasingly reliant on greater European cooperation and co-regulation. Steps have already been taken towards a Europeanization of energy policies, with EU energy targets for 2030 set and a process underway to establish an energy union that will seek to integrate European energy systems across the national borders.

The EU has pioneered the use of market mechanisms in meeting emissions targets through the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), with strong support from Denmark. Today, almost half of Danish emissions are covered by the EU ETS. The price of carbon has the potential to provide cost-effective incentive for emissions reduction initiatives in the private sector. The EU 2020 Climate and Energy package sets a goal for the EU to cut its emissions by 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Some of these emissions are covered by a joint EU reduction target in the ETS, while Denmark is obliged to reduce emissions in the sectors outside of the ETS by 20 percent from 2005 to 2020. The EU has set a 2030 emissions reduction target of at least 40 percent which Denmark expects to make a significant contribution to fulfilling.

As ambitious as Denmark’s energy policies are, they do not yet go far enough to meet its international obligations. Denmark has already come a long way down the road toward decarbonization of the energy economy, yet there is a need to cut emissions across the economy, including transport, agriculture, and individual heating. Denmark has been successful by being determined but practical, by seeking cost-efficient and competitive solutions, and by integrating energy with other social and economic goals. Denmark has pioneered a clean energy revolution, but, it is a revolution still in motion. References 1. Danish Energy Agreement for 2012–2020. International Energy Agency [online] (2013) http://www.iea.org/policiesandmeasures/pams/ denmark/name-42441-en.php.

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Galaz, V., A. de Zeeuw, H. Shiroyama, and D. Tripley. (2016). Planetary Boundaries: Governing Emerging Risks and Opportunities. Solutions 7(3): 46–54. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/planetary-boundaries-governing-emerging-risks-and-opportunities/

Feature

Planetary Boundaries— Governing Emerging Risks and Opportunities

by Victor Galaz, Aart de Zeeuw, Hideaki Shiroyama, and Debbie Tripley NASA / Barry Wilmore

The Great Lakes and Central United States viewed from the International Space Station.

In Brief The climate, ecosystems and species, ozone layer, acidity of the oceans, the flow of energy and elements through nature, landscape change, freshwater systems, aerosols, and toxins—these constitute the planetary boundaries within which humanity must find a safe way to live and prosper. These are thresholds that, if we cross them, we run the risk of rapid, non-linear, and irreversible changes to the environment, with severe consequences for human wellbeing. The concept of planetary boundaries, though recent, has already gained traction in scientific and in some policy circles, and is generating debate more broadly. Nevertheless, despite decades of talk on sustainable development, reform of international governance and institutions has not kept pace with the scale and urgency of the global environmental crisis. The notion of planetary boundaries can be seen as a way to frame governance reform. This discussion introduces key elements of governance in a world with boundaries: deep reform of international governance, such as the United Nations system and trade treaties; emerging ecological concepts and principles in international law; the role of economics for the biosphere; and, the need to integrate different kinds of knowledge—from the local to the global. The literature is rich with ideas for solutions and real-world experiences. One recent example from south-eastern Australia demonstrates innovative approaches to knowledge sharing and communication between scientists, urban planners, and local communities for sustainable development in a changing climate. Finally, there is need for a mobilizing narrative: a story grounded in the concept of planetary boundaries, uniting the solutions, and framed in such a way as to offer opportunities for learning, innovation, and creativity at all levels, in both the North and South. There are no simple solutions to what are complex problems involving politics and trade-offs. Ongoing debate and discussion—in academia, in policy circles, and in society at large—is healthy, but we should not allow debate about the precise nature of planetary boundaries to stymie progress. Exploring these issues and the interface between different fields is a challenging task, to be sure. Still, it is essential if the concept of planetary boundaries is to fulfill its potential as a guide for human action in the Anthropocene. 46 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

he notion of planetary boundaries attempts to define a safe operating space within which humanity can flourish. The boundaries relate to climate change, change in biosphere integrity (i.e. biodiversity loss and species extinction), stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification, biogeochemical flows, land-system change, freshwater use, atmospheric aerosol loading, and the introduction of novel entities (such as radioactive materials and organic pollutants).1 Recently, the original boundaries were updated, but the central message remains:2 there are global environmental thresholds beyond which the risk of non-linear, abrupt, and irreversible changes rises substantially. Crossing the thresholds would have severe repercussions for human wellbeing. The idea of planetary boundaries is the subject of ongoing discussion and debate, both scholarly and socially, as it should be. Do thresholds in natural systems really exist? Does the framing with a focus on scarcity and global boundaries help or hinder action? Are boundaries a useful guide for human ingenuity and innovation for sustainable futures?3 Here, we build on existing debates, and identify five elements of governance mechanisms, or ‘solutions’ that, as yet, have received only modest attention.4 A word of caution: simple political or institutional solutions to such complex problems seldom exist. Instead, proposals for institutional reform are hard. They are always associated with political values and trade-offs, and hence need continuous public, scholarly, and political debate.5 And, as with any global sustainability issue, we need to bear in mind unresolved North–South issues and tensions. The governance elements discussed here are related to issues around the need for: • Deep institutional reform at the international level;

• The potential to tap into international law and legal principles; • The importance of biosphere economics; • The need for multi-scale knowledge integration; • And, the need for a mobilizing narrative as a driver of transition.

Key Concepts • There are planetary boundaries within which humanity must find a safe space to flourish. They constitute environmental thresholds that, if crossed, raise the risk of undoing much human progress.

Shaking Up International Institutions It is increasingly clear that incremental reforms of international institutions cannot keep up with the rate of environmental, social, and technological change which lead to the Anthropocene. In 2012, the Earth System Governance Project, an international network of social science scholars analyzing various aspects of environmental institutions and political decision-making, concluded that: Incremental change—the main approach since the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment—is no longer sufficient to bring about societal change at the level and with the speed needed to mitigate and adapt to Earth system transformation. Structural change is needed.8

• Despite decades of worldwide discussion on sustainable development, reform of international governance and institutions is outpaced by the rate of global environmental change. • Key elements of governance reform to drive sustainable development are: deep institutional reform at the international level; key emerging concepts in international law and legal principles; the importance of biosphere economics; multi-scale knowledge integration; and, a mobilizing narrative as a driver of transition. • Most likely to succeed is a narrative that, grounded in the concept of planetary boundaries, offers opportunities for learning, innovation, and creativity at all levels, in both the North and South. • More sustainable outcomes at the local level can be achieved where scientists and planners work together with local communities to integrate global and local knowledge and establish better, ongoing dialogue.

We explore each of these elements briefly below. While none is straightforward and each has its implementation problems and tradeoffs,6,7 we should not let this distract us from the urgent need to focus on solutions.

In other words, actions to arrest the global environmental crisis have so far not matched the scale and urgency of the task. Indeed, several authors have suggested more substantial global reforms.9,10 Biermann and colleagues, for instance, propose structural changes including (but not limited to): strengthening international environmental treaties; weaving environmental, social, and developmental values into global trade and investment regimes; upgrading the powers of the United Nations Environment Programme comparable to those of the World Health Organization or the International Labor Organization; and, better integration of sustainable development within the UN system itself. These reforms aim to increase the legitimacy and accountability of international environmental policymaking and simultaneously increase coherence and help guide institutional interplay. The notion of planetary boundaries may serve as a guiding framework for these reforms. Reforms

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such as these will surely be challenged, as they always have in the history of the UN and in global environmental governance in general. Barriers include insufficient multilateral commitment, knowledge gaps, and political gridlock, to mention a few.11 This should not distract us from their importance, however. Such reforms need to consider that environmental change is not only incremental, but also can unfold in abrupt ways with severe repercussions for human security. Globally networked risks pose severe global governance challenges and require not only structural changes, but also new flexible modes of collaboration at the international level. As the “food crisis” in 2008-2009, recurrent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases such as Ebola and Zika and, the possible cascading impacts of climate change on food security, financial stability, and human migration illustrate, the challenge to global resilience lies in maintaining both institutional predictability and flexibility. While this might sound like a difficult trade-off, recent studies show that a combination is possible, if embodied in globally spanning networks.12 For example, the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources has developed sophisticated information processing in collaboration with state and non-state actors in the last decade, leading to a much wanted reduction in illegal and unreported fishing.13 Adaptive and global collaborations between state and non-state actors such as these may provide space for much needed decentralized, bottomup approaches involving multiple institutions and actors.

Tapping into International Law and Legal Principles Overarching principles and norms in international law guide both state and non-state actors alike, and new norms have been proposed as a way

UN Photo / Mark Garten

Icebergs in Ilulissat Icefjord, Greenland, where ice sheets have been melting at an accelerating pace.

to address planetary boundaries. For example, Dutch environmental policy scholar Frank Biermann argues that overarching legal principles, as well as concepts of peremptory norms in international law (ius cogens, i.e. norms that no state may deviate from), could provide two good starting points.14 Similarly, Kim and Bosselmann argue there is a legal case for “a goal-oriented, purposive system of multilateral environmental agreements” based on a new legally binding international norm—a Grundnorm.15 The existing legal concept of ecological integrity could be used as a principle of customary international law and interpreted to include the science of planetary boundaries, as well as moral and ethical dimensions. In other words, a state would be required to ensure that their legal frameworks preserve ecological integrity, defined as within planetary boundary thresholds. In a related idea, Higgins and colleagues propose making ecocide a crime, with states “legally bound to act before mass damage, destruction or ecosystem collapse occurs.”16 Other countries would have a duty of care to render aid where ecosystems

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were at risk of collapse. This would entail, among other reforms, a new International Environmental Court. The evolution of such norms might seem difficult, if not impossible considering the ever-existing risk of political gridlock and tangible conflicts of interest between states. However, as scholars of international relations, politics, and law have explored at length, norm changes with international level impacts can unfold in abrupt ways. Norms evolve through a life cycle as they emerge (often at the national level), cascade, and transgress a “tipping point” at which a critical mass of relevant state actors adopt the norm. This process can be facilitated by so-called “world historical events,” such as wars or major depressions, and is driven by “norm entrepreneurs” that link domestic and international politics in ways that contribute to the diffusion of the new norm. The prohibitions against certain kinds of weapons, the end of slavery, and the adoption of the Aarhus Convention in 1998 after the end of the Cold War exemplify abrupt changes in international norms. Whether the Paris Agreement in 2015, and the surprising

United Nations Photo

The leaders of COP21 celebrate the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015.

explicit ambition to aim to limit the increase of climate change to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels really will materialize, remains to be seen. At best however, this new ambitious target indicates a nascent international norm that puts climate stability and risk at the center of international discussions and national action.

Towards an Economics of the Biosphere Planetary boundaries define a safe operating space; hence, crossing a boundary may lead to unacceptable costs. For a long time economics has ignored the type of instability and the possibility of multiple equilibria inherent in the notion of planetary boundaries. From the perspective of cost-benefit analyses, it means that shifting to another regime with another equilibrium and an unacceptable high loss of welfare should be avoided at almost all costs. In such a case, economics should not focus on adjustments towards the traditional, stable, narrow economic growth path, but on policies that take account of possible tipping points in the ecological system. A good example is climate

change. The planetary boundary can be characterized by an increase in global mean temperature of 2°C. This implies a budget of greenhouse gas emissions that the world as a whole has to respect. The issue is actually quite similar to the optimal extraction of an exhaustible resource. Economics provides tools for solving this type of problem, but it applies these tools mainly to resource economics, and has not yet made the switch to macroeconomics with planetary boundaries. Another important issue is the “tragedy of the commons” at this global scale. In the absence of an effective governing institution, the question is how the optimal use of the budget of greenhouse gas emissions is going to be implemented and respected. Economic research on stability of climate treaties with approaching catastrophes that could support the political processes of the COP meetings, such as the recent COP 21 in Paris, has just started.17 Interesting progress has been made in the last decade though, with important practical implications: the term biosphere economics denotes an emerging phase in economic research and policy

that takes tipping points and regime shifts in complex natural systems seriously.18 Biosphere economics builds on previously done important work, for example in developing alternative methods for measuring well-being,19,20 but highlights that the mere existence of a possible catastrophic threshold has important implications for policy making.21 Even if regime shifts are uncertain, a precautionary approach is required rather than optimization that ignores potential regime shifts. Planetary boundaries are kinds of risk thresholds with the potential to act as focal points and yield realistically optimal policies.22,23 Investments in resilience—that is diversity, flexibility, and learning—have costs, but become optimal when possible “tipping points” are taken into account. A good example is the management of the lobster fishery in Maine.24 The fishery became very profitable when the lobster was turned into the only species in its functional group in the ecological system, but this increased the vulnerability of the system and the risk of collapse. In such a case, it is better to improve the resilience of the system at the expense of some fishery profits today, but this policy only results if potential tipping points are taken into account. Hence, focusing economic thinking on single metrics (such as GDP or efficiency) is not only simplistic, but also prone to failure, as it undermines resilience in the longer term. A dashboard of metrics that instead track planetary wellbeing, and that take threshold effects seriously, will prove much more useful as a guide for research and action.

Platforms to Link Global and Local Knowledge The notion of planetary boundaries is quickly gaining ground in global environmental scientific assessments. A number of arenas for cross-disciplinary scientific synthesis have emerged in the last few decades, including the Millennium Ecosystem

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NOAA Photo Library

Fisherman haul in a lobster trap in Boothbay Harbor, Maine. The lobster fishery in Maine provides a good example of possible “tipping points” in biosphere economics.

Assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The new global scientific initiative Future Earth exists to create action-oriented science for the Anthropocene. These bodies are critical not only in standardizing global knowledge but also by constructing spaces for deliberation between science and society.25 The policy impact of these initiatives cannot be taken for granted, as shown in decades of work on how scientific knowledge is used in policymaking and governance.26,27 An issue’s salience is seldom (if ever) enough to trigger international action, but must be combined with institutional mechanisms that enhance the credibility and legitimacy of information.

One of the most pressing questions arising in planetary boundary discussions centers on scale (so-called downscaling): are global thresholds and boundaries applicable to local, regional, or national levels? There is considerable debate on the usefulness of compressing multi-scale socioecological processes into simpler global metrics.28,29 A number of more practical and action-oriented attempts have come from academics and policy-makers.30-32 Downscaling is equally an institutional issue. The use of climate information and science in local settings is associated with vast challenges created by lack of information and data, capacity, and human and economic resources.33 The situation is even more challenging in climate-vulnerable and fragile states where vital

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monitoring infrastructure is missing and state capacities are weak or even non-existent34 Moreover, whether useful and actionable planetary boundaries metrics and indicators can be developed at the local level remains to be seen. A number of recent practical initiatives combine insights from global assessment programs with local knowledge in ways that are perceived as legitimate and transparent. Tengö and colleagues, for example, have studied multiple evidence-based approaches showing that local and indigenous knowledge systems, developed through long periods of experimentation, adaptation, and co-evolution, can provide valid and useful knowledge, as well as methods,

Continued on Page 52

Urban Sustainability: Joining the Dots Between Planning, Science, and Community by Barbara Norman By 2050, the global population will reach nearly ten billion, according to the United Nations.1 The climatic impact of another three billion people, most of whom will be citydwellers, is likely to prove substantial.2 Cities are major contributors to global carbon emissions, accounting for 75 percent of world final energy use and 76 percent of carbon dioxide emissions (both numbers are median figures from the estimated range).3,4 More people, plus rising per capita consumption, will put already-strained natural systems, such as water and soil resources, under even more pressure. Even so, more sustainable cities and regions are possible, especially when scientists and land-use planners work with each other and with local communities. To be effective, such collaborations require sustained government support for partnerships, dialogue, and implementation. Frequently, however, there is little contact between the three groups, let alone cooperation. Why? At first glance, their common interest seems obvious, but land-use planners, communities, and scientists tend to look at urban and regional futures quite differently. Planners focus on policy, scientists on Earth system dynamics, while communities are left to ‘make it happen’—to work with the policies and knowledge dealt to them. An integrated approach is needed, one that incorporates risk management and ongoing community engagement,5 as recognized in the UN’s 2015 Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability lessons can be learned from place-based projects that illustrate the challenges and opportunities of more connected policy and implementation. Nepal provides an example of policy at all levels of government—an important step forward—but also illustrates remaining challenges to on the ground implementation.

Dipak Bishwokarma and colleagues argue that the top-down funding model for lessdeveloped countries, like Nepal, does not necessarily engender the local engagement critical to implementation.6 The internationally funded national plans, for instance, need to be better connected to the pioneering local ones. In essence, policy frameworks at all levels of government are a first step, but governance has to meaningfully integrate into the local and regional decision-making processes. The bottom-up mainstreaming approach and double linkage between national and local level adaptation plans is the foundation for sustainability of adaptation actions in less-developed countries. A recent Australian coastal case study shows the importance of thinking creatively about communications and connections between scientists and communities. The South East Coastal Adaptation project took the innovative step of partnering scientists and planners with locals to explore infrastructure and other development issues in a changing climate.7 Three universities, together with seven local governments, worked with cultural practitioners over six months to explore new ways of more effectively engaging communities in the development of local solutions. This culminated in an innovative local art exhibition involving schools, town leaders, and researchers, which received national recognition. The study found that: A prescriptive approach to settlement and infrastructure for coastal communities is less important than a decision-making process that is open, transparent, inclusive and adaptive, involving all levels of government and the community.8

The Nepali and Australian case studies highlight the importance of governance to effective local adaption and sustainability planning. Support by higher levels of government, including funding, is crucial, as are arrangements that encourage collaboration. The case studies offer positive examples that emphasize local engagement. However, institutional barriers—ranging from conditions on foreign aid to local administrative arrangements—can still thwart progress.9 In this respect, the role of funding and development of boundary organizations can make the difference. Boundary organizations are bodies designed to bridge the gaps between different disciplines, and between policy, science, and communities. The Canberra Urban and Regional Futures (CURF) program, housed at the University of Canberra, is one example of a boundary organization. CURF is a platform for international collaboration on climate change and sustainability, health and well-being, settlements and infrastructure, and green growth. Interdisciplinary, place-based case studies can be very useful in understanding systems and joining the dots so that solutions are fully realized. As cities and regions around the world grapple with a changing climate, scientists, planners, and communities will need to work with each other more closely. Sustainability and climate scientists, and land-use planners need to work more closely together to arrive at effective on-ground solutions. Cultural practitioners can play a vital role to ensure climate science is communicated effectively and communities are properly engaged. Crucial to successful cooperation is long-term public funding and governance arrangements that support transparency and the sharing of knowledge.

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Continued from Page 50 theories, and practices for sustainable ecosystem management.35 The importance of combining knowledge systems becomes apparent especially in community-based monitoring and information systems, or bridging organizations—those that connect actors across scales, and provide arenas for deliberation and learning.36,37 (See box.) From these experiences emerge tangible examples of ways to downscale planetary insights, sensitive to local issues. Such initiatives may also benefit from recent developments in communication and information technologies, improving early warnings, responses, and collaboration capacities.38

norms emerge, cascade, and reach a critical mass of relevant actors, finally becoming established.41 Such processes need a mobilizing narrative or framing;42 a story, which often has powerful implications for policy-making. Climate change, for example, can be seen as a technological challenge, the result of market failure, an issue of global distribution, or as the ecological limit to overconsumption. Each of these framings implies different policies and assignment of responsibilities and blame. Martin Hajer proposes another reframing of the issue—one focused on learning, innovation, and creativity: Such a reassessment could involve combining green growth with the frame of the energetic society. Get citizens, farmers and businesses onboard, and develop a new, beckoning mindset that presents new opportunities, offers new openings, releases more energy and encourages the creativity that already exists in society to flourish.43

The Need for a Mobilizing Narrative Institutional reforms, legal principles, economic policies, and organizational innovation all play a role in Earth system governance. However, global transformation needs upward pressure from grassroots movements and subglobal deliberations, and the dynamics of transitions and transformations is the subject of considerable study,39,40 as are the processes by which societal

Planetary boundaries need not imply a top-down narrative. A growing literature explores the possibility of using these boundaries as an engine

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f0ea42bf37341.

of socially and ecologically informed innovation.44,45 A kind of alternative framing can also be found in global initiatives, such as the work by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.46 It should be noted that many “planetary boundary” narratives are possible, ranging from techno-optimistic notions such as “Ecomodernism” and “Abundance,”47,48 to notions of changes in values and institutions to incorporate “Biosphere Stewardship,”49 and anti-capitalistic critiques and ideas for fundamental global economic reform and redistribution of wealth.50 It is difficult, if not impossible, to know how these different narratives will evolve or take root in complex social and political realities. On the contrary, we know very little about the conditions that make new problem framings materialize and replace older ones. In addition, while the planetary boundaries framing might seem reasonable, it has nevertheless induced considerable debate between states with different development needs. As Frank Biermann notes, the notion of ‘thresholds’ embedded in the notion of a “safe operating space” also has unavoidable political dimensions.51 Vested interests will question the existence of these boundaries and advance

alternative counter-narratives.52 Actors can also differ in their risk adversity, or can interpret and value scientific uncertainties differently. Ultimately, this means that a future oriented around planetary boundaries must be made attractive and meaningful to different actors in both the North and South. It must connect risks with opportunities, emphasize co-benefits, and explore abundance within a safe operating space.

Concluding Reflections Discussions about possible governance reforms based on the notion of planetary boundaries are quickly gaining ground, and inducing much needed debates about the future of global environmental governance. We have touched on ideas around deep reform of global institutions, the potential to tap into law and legal principles, the importance of economics informed by biosphere realities, the importance of integrating knowledge across scales, and the need for a narrative that mobilizes people toward larger transitions. These are important starting points for more discussion and debate, not the final word. In fact, quick-fix solutions for governance and institutional problems this big and this important are impossible. Exploring these issues, and connecting risk with opportunities is a challenging task. It is essential, however, if the concept of planetary boundaries is to fulfill its potential as a guide for human action in the Anthropocene.

Belspo / Nevens / UN ISDR

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81 (2012): 4–9. 52. Armitage, K.C. State of denial: The United States and

Spierenburg. Connecting diverse knowledge systems

Environmental Assessment Agency [online]

the politics of global warming. Globalizations 2(3)

for enhanced ecosystem governance: The Multiple

(2011) http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/

(2005): 417–27.

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Bai, X., B. Norman, and P. Edwards. (2016). Navigating through the Urban Age: Principles and Innovations. Solutions 7(3): 55–62. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/navigating-through-the-urban-age-principles-and-innovations/

Feature

Navigating through the Urban Age: Principles and Innovations

by Xuemei Bai, Barbara Norman, and Peter Edwards Tokyo Form

Tokyo is a rapidly growing megacity, projected to have a population of 37 million by the year 2030.

In Brief By 2030, it is estimated that 65 percent of the global population will live in cities, and most of the additional three billion world population projected by 2050 will be added to cities. The process of urbanization is typically driven by push and pull factors, but national government policy is emerging as another important driver in countries like China, where urbanization is closely linked to industrialization and economic growth. There are numerous challenges associated with rapid urbanization, including providing for rapidly growing urban populations, managing air pollution, reducing carbon emissions, preparing for climate change risks, and improving social integration and governance procedures. A consorted approach integrating local, national, and international efforts, and mobilizing all sectors and actors is required. In this regard, understanding cities as systems that are nested within larger systems will be critical. Solutions are most likely to vary across cities and will be context dependent. Nonetheless, there are some high-level principles for building sustainable, resilient, and healthy cities, and although still a long way to go, there are some encouraging signs towards implementing these principles from international, national, and local levels. Of particular importance is the role of the university, which is increasingly finding cities as living laboratories and becoming the engine of innovation. www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 55

y 2030, it is estimated that 65 percent of the global population will live in cities.1 In the longer term, the world’s population is projected to be 10 billion by 2050 with most of the additional three billion living in cities. To accommodate these extra three billion people, we will need to build the equivalent of one new city that can support one million people every five days between now and 2050.2 In practice, most of these people will be accommodated through the expansion of cities, with the consequence that, by 2030, the world is projected to have 41 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants, including Tokyo with 37 million and Delhi with 36 million. Population growth is just one aspect of urbanization. It is accompanied by the urbanization of the landscape, which can expand even faster than urban population growth.3 According to the World Bank, the urban area in the Pearl River Delta grew from 4500 sq. km. in 2000 to nearly 7000 sq. km. in 2010.4 As cities are typically located in fertile land, the consequences of this expansion for agriculture and the food security of urban populations have become matters of increasing concern. Urbanization can take different forms, ranging from the growth of existing cities (Mexico City), to the merging of several urban centers into urban regions (Pearl Delta Region, China) and corridors, and to the emerging ‘smart’ cities developed on sustainable principles (Songdo, South Korea). Major drivers of urbanization include push factors from rural areas when traditional livelihood becomes impossible, and pull factors from cities with better employment and education opportunities. The migration between rural areas and cities is becoming increasingly mobile and bidirectional, for example, increasing circular migration in

sub-Saharan Africa or the large number of floating peasant workers in China,7 largely responding to economic opportunities in urban areas. A third driver of urbanization is the targeted governmental policy to promote urbanization for economic growth, as urban expansions feed into economic growth,6 and

Key Concepts • The world is entering an urban age, with 65 percent of world population projected to be urban dwellers by 2030. In addition to the traditional push and pull factors, national government policy can play a significant role in promoting and shaping urbanization. • Urbanization brings about multiple challenges, ranging from providing for new urban dwellers to managing urban social, economic, and environment issues and to reducing carbon emissions and preparing for climate change risks. Tackling these challenges effectively will be a significant opportunity to shape alternative urban futures. • A consorted approach integrating local, national, and international efforts, and mobilizing all sectors and actors is required, and a systems approach is essential. • Solutions are most likely to vary across cities and will be context dependent. Nonetheless, there are some high-level principles that can guide finding and implementing solutions. • Universities can play a critical role in finding urban solutions, by being engines for innovation in cities, which serve as living laboratories.

urbanization is closely linked to an expanding middle class, particularly in rapidly industrializing countries such as China. The increasing consumption power of these new urban middle classes is seen by governments as a new driver of domestic demand and economic growth.17

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Challenges There are numerous challenges associated with rapid urbanization. Providing for rapidly growing urban populations, managing air pollution, reducing carbon emissions, preparing for climate change risks, and improving social integration and governance procedures are several examples. The provision of sufficient and affordable infrastructure, such as housing, water supply, sanitation, and transportation options to meet the demands of a growing urban population requires large investments in cities. In addition to the financial requirements, planning for smart infrastructure is a key consideration that will require investment in knowledge and skill development at the national and local levels. In particular, national energy systems servicing large urban conurbations will experience transformational change in the very near future. Indeed, the roll-out and integration of renewable energy into old and new cities has become a priority for many large utility providers. Air quality is an example of the possible negative externalities of rapid urban expansion. This is being experienced in a very tangible way in large developing nations. During early December 2015, the first two rednotices for ‘heavy air pollution’ were issued by the China Meteorological Administration, highlighting the growing human health dimension of maintaining a sustainable city.7,8 The social and economic consequences of these notices were immediate and severe, as they required the closure of factories, businesses, and schools. Another example is the Asian brown cloud that sweeps over Asian countries, including India and Malaysia, highlighting the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems. Primarily generated by wood and forest fires, transport, and industrialization processes, the brown cloud is having a major impact on human health.9

At the larger scale, climate change is one of the greatest challenges. Cities are major contributors to global carbon emissions, accounting for 75 percent of world final energy use and 76 percent of carbon dioxide emissions (both numbers are median figures from the estimated range).10,11 In highincome countries where urban rural income disparity is less significant, cities can scale benefits to provide infrastructure more efficiently, and thus can be less carbon-intensive than in rural areas. In developing countries, on the other hand, urban–rural income disparity remains significant, with urban dwellers on average consuming more than their rural counterparts, and the urban way of life is typically more carbon-intensive. Finding ways to achieve a low-carbon urban development is an urgent task, as the majority of urban growth will take place in the developing world. Climate risks and vulnerabilities present enormous challenges for the planning of our cities. Many major cities are located along coastal areas and will suffer from the impacts of climate change (e.g. flooding, coastal inundation, extreme weather). Studies show significant costs from these impacts, with limited adaptation options, and developing cities being particularly vulnerable.12 Planners usually regard the physical environment as relatively stable and rarely consider the possibility of significant changes in the urban landscape due, for example, to largescale coastal erosion. Indeed, despite the fact that a more dynamic environment will bring with it a raft of legal, social, economic, and environmental consequences, many new developments take place in areas at high risk from flooding and coastal inundation. This requires cities to adapt a planning system that can respond to changes occurring at a scale never previously encountered and to make urban design more climatesensitive.13 Some global cities such as London, New York, and Melbourne are planning ahead for climate adaptation.

10 Principles to Make our Cities Liveable19 ••Empower cities: More financial power should be delegated to cities in proportion to their responsibilities. In addition, it is important to recognize their rightful place in policy processes and implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Current implementation strategies emphasize country, regional, and international approaches, without much focus on cities. Challenge cities to adopt the goals—and compete and cooperate to achieve them. ••National level support: It is important to realize urban issues are not the responsibility of local government alone. The aggregated social and economic power and environmental impacts of cities are often comparable to that of entire nations, but their potential cannot be properly tapped without support. Having a place in the national government institutional structure is essential. ••Integrate new migrants and other vulnerable populations into the urban fabric: In China alone, there are 250 million people termed the “floating population” who come to cities to work but often without adequate social security or health care support. These people are often systematically discriminated against by cities’ bureaucracies. Adopt a people-centred approach to urbanization, nurturing a sense of belonging and enhanced participatory governance. ••Beyond city limits: Ensure policies and management decisions at the city level take into account the regional and global context and interactions. ••Coordinated long-term vision: As cities grow and new cities emerge, we need a coordinated long-term vision of urban development. Unrealistically ambitious outlooks and over competition result in redundant infrastructure and inefficient resource use. ••Prepare for future risks: Cities need to be prepared not only for the risks arising from global phenomena such as climate change, but also those arising from local processes. For example, numerous cities sit on deltas, and many of the world’s deltas are sinking as a result of extraction and the concentration of high-rise buildings. ••Implementation and accountability: Many cities suffer from air and water pollution, where local officials prioritize economic development over environmental quality; or worse, corruption is rife and officials are bribed to ignore regulations. Enhancing implementation of environmental regulation and reducing corruption will have a dramatic effect on the liveability of cities. ••More science in planning and decision-making: We do not have a full grasp of how cities as complex systems behave and respond to intervention. For example, decisions about transport can affect housing, industry, energy consumption, and health in unexpected ways. Unintended adverse consequences can be minimized through closer collaboration on science and urban policies. Moreover, the main urban research institutes are in wealthy countries. The most rapid urbanization will happen in Africa and Asia. We need more urban research institutes in these areas linked to local and national policies. ••Nurture cultural innovation: Cities are centers of rapid cultural innovation. Evidence shows that cultural shifts in cities, for example, “Cycling is cool” or “Wasting food is a shame,” have the potential to deliver significant sustainability outcomes within and beyond cities. ••Facilitate city-to-city learning: Cities learn from each other more than from anything else. However, engagement in such peer learning can be constrained by local capacity, and this is where upper-level government and international organizations can help. In doing so, we must recognize that solutions are not one-size-fits-all. It is also important to recognize that learning and sharing doesn’t have to be unidirectional.

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Momo Go

Urban agricultural plots lie below high rises in Songdo, South Korea. The city was designed as a new ‘smart’ city, built with sustainable principles.

However, much of the world’s urban population will continue to live in small to medium urban centers, with half of the world’s urban residents living in relatively small cities of less than 500,000 inhabitants. With only around one in eight currently living in the 28 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants, planning for cities at different scales is an important consideration.14 Urbanization also presents critical social challenges. China alone has a ‘floating population’ of over 260 million working in coastal cities. Though vast in numbers, these workers are not fully integrated into the urban fabric.15,16 Wider considerations of climate justice and social equity are also emerging

as fundamental societal concerns in planning for cities, climate change, and planetary boundaries.17,18 Exacerbating these impacts will be the potential for increasing social and economic divides in both developed and developing nations resulting in increasing issues of urban access and equity. Some broader societal trends also present new challenges to cities, for example, planning for an aging society such as in Japan and the revitalizing (or not) of shrinking cities such as former industrial cities like Detroit. These are complex issues that will bring winners and losers within and among cities, whatever the planning response. This diversity of outcomes is nothing new in itself, but the risk that certain

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groups will be severely disadvantaged increases with the pace of change. For this reason, any strategic planning for urban settlements must consider possible impacts for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, and wider consequences for the region. Indeed, the complexity of these issues highlights the necessity for all levels of government to be involved in developing solutions.

Solutions To effectively address the diverse urban challenges ranging from the more traditional issues such as housing, transport, water, and energy to the emerging issues of climate change and planetary boundaries, requires a consorted approach integrating

Future Cities Laboratory: Innovative Research for Sustainable Cities A report recently published documents how “the world’s leading universities have embarked on a building boom for urban research.” In the last ten years, more than a dozen labs, departments, and schools have been launched with the common goal of researching quantitative and computational approaches to understanding cities as systems.22 One of these new institutions is the Singapore–ETH Centre, founded in 2010, which supports two major research programs: Future Cities Laboratory (FCL) and Future Resilient Systems (FRS). Both programs are multidisciplinary and aimed at developing practical solutions to improve the resilience and sustainability of cities. However, any such solutions must be based upon a sound understanding of how cities work, and this remains very limited. As Geoffrey West, former director of the Santa Fe Institute, remarked, we “desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities—relying on underlying generic principles that can be made into a predictive framework.” FCL focuses it efforts upon the ‘metabolism’ of cities, studying them as complex systems characterized by stocks and flows of resources, including energy, water, capital, and information. FRS, on the other hand, relies heavily upon complexity theory, treating urban infrastructure systems as complex sociotechnical systems composed not only of engineered structures, but also of the people who make up the subsystems of users and operators. Three examples illustrate the kinds of problem-oriented research undertaken at the Singapore–ETH Centre and the challenges it faces in putting new knowledge into practice. The first concerns a project to improve the efficiency of air cooling, which in cities such as Singapore can account for as much as one-third of all electricity consumed. In preliminary experiments, a research team of architects and engineers found it could reduce the energy needed for cooling by as much as 50 percent by using a combination of radiant-heat exchangers, decentralized ventilation, and wireless sensors and controls. And there was another important benefit: the new system needed much less space for ducting and machinery, so that buildings could potentially be smaller and use fewer materials in their construction. But despite these evident benefits, it proved very difficult to find a developer who was prepared to install the first system in a new building. Fortunately, a local private school was prepared to take this risk, and the new system has now been successfully installed in the school’s new administrative block, where it is attracting great interest. The lesson learned from this

local, national, and international efforts, and mobilizing all sectors and actors. In this regard, a systems understanding and approach—that is, understanding cities as systems rather than a collection of individual sectors that are nested within larger systems—will be critical to finding solutions for the future.

experience is that new ideas need to be demonstrated. We suggest that cities could contribute to achieving sustainability by providing the opportunities to test new ideas. The second example concerns a project to develop a new approach to urban river rehabilitation. The river in question is the heavily polluted Ciliwung River in Jakarta, which floods regularly, causing untold misery to residents in low-lying parts of the city. The research team of hydrologists, engineers, and landscape architects used a combination of hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and 3-D landscape modelling to assess the consequences of potential interventions in the urban landscape. Working closely with stakeholders, they developed design scenarios for the Ciliwung as a public green corridor, which would restore the riparian ecosystems and greatly improve the quality of life for local communities. A major public event was organized to encourage public authorities and funding agencies to implement this project, though the response so far has been modest. The lesson learned is that implementing radical solutions requires patience and persistence. The third example concerns the development of tools for simulating and visualizing urban processes. At the heart of FCL is a sophisticated digital laboratory, Value Lab Asia, with state-of-the-art facilities for modelling 3-D and multidimensional data. As well as being an essential research tool, this laboratory provides an important means for working with practitioners. Architects and planners, for example, can visualize the changing plumes of heat swirling around buildings as wind speed and direction changes and explore how new designs might affect a city’s heat balance. Transport planners can gain a bird’s eye view of the city’s traffic streaming through the streets and test how traffic flow might be affected by adding a new bus route or providing motorists with more information about congestion. Not surprisingly, this facility attracts great interest from industry and government agencies. The lesson learned is that good visualization provides a powerful means for translating research ideas into practical solutions. In conclusion, the ‘new urban science’ is emerging rapidly as a coherent body of theory and knowledge about how urban systems function and change. Researchers in this field are challenged to leave the ivory tower and collaborate with government agencies and industrial partners in producing knowledge and ideas for a more sustainable urban future. And in doing so, they are changing the ways that universities do their work.

Solutions are most likely to vary across cities and will be context dependent. Differences may be due to the functional differences of cities or the scale of cities across the urban hierarchy, from global cites such as New York and Shanghai to small coastal urban centers, as well as across the development stages and per-capita

income spectrum. Nonetheless, there are some high-level principles in terms of adopting a systems approach (see box on page 57). These principles are essential to effectively address urban challenges and build sustainable, resilient, and healthy cities. There are some encouraging signs and progresses towards finding

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solutions. The magnitude of urban challenges and the new opportunities of addressing them are increasingly recognized internationally. Recent inclusion of sustainable, resilient, and healthy human settlement as one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is one of such example. This year the UN Habitat III conference, a major UN conference that is held once every 20 years, will be held in Ecuador, and a series of global and regional initiatives are being undertaken in the run up towards it. Cities are gaining increasing legitimacy and voice in international policy processes such as COP21, with active participation of local government associations. New international city networks are sharing these experiences at the subnational level, and their presence at the COP 21 meeting was substantial. These new networks may be a significant component of the possible global solutions to the challenges of urbanization. Future Earth, a 10-year global research initiative on sustainable development, identified urbanization and building sustainable cities as one of eight grand societal challenges and is expected to launch the Cities Knowledge Action Network later this year, which will provide a global research and engagement platform on urban issues.20 At the national level, China announced a National New-type Urbanization Plan in 2014 which, instead of being focused primarily upon the economy and infrastructure, is more people centered. And in Australia, a Minister for Cities has been appointed, emphasizing the critical role that federal government has to play in urban issues, especially in the areas of innovation and productivity. The national government’s role is critical in finding solutions, as urban policy can be strongly influenced by national priorities and strategies. The National New-type Urbanization Plan in China sets a clear target that the share of green buildings in new constructions in cities and towns needs to

Aaron Reiss / Freedom House

Migrant laborers, known as China’s ‘floating population,’ face constant discrimination, economic hardship, and a lack of access to basic public services in the cities that they work in. Here plain-clothes construction laborers from the countryside are seen working in Guangzhou.

be 50 percent by 2020, which has the potential to significantly improve the energy and greenhouse gas emission profile of cities. Within cities, the role of nongovernmental actors in achieving sustainability is increasingly recognized. Universities have an essential role to play in promoting urban sustainability by producing new knowledge and ideas and actively engaging with local government and communities.21 The collaboration between Singapore and Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH) is such an example (see box on page 59). The benefit of such collaboration is two-directional, with cities providing living labs for researchers to develop theories and perform rapid option testing, as well as benefiting from emerging innovations and tested options of innovative urban research. On the social front, the increasing demand of growing urban populations for civic engagement and participation in decision-making processes is making itself felt in rapidly urbanizing cities. A good example is the increasing ‘activism’ in cities such as Shanghai

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over the loss of heritage buildings and the clear-felling of trees for new development. Enhanced awareness and further empowerment of civil society is needed to push for and engage with inclusive governance practices. Various forms of social, technological, and design innovations and experimentation are burgeoning in cities, and solutions proven elsewhere are being adapted and taking root in cities. As part of the Energy Efficiency Improvement program, the Australian Capital Territory recently conducted energy saving house calls, which involved a technician visiting households door to door, changing all the light bulbs and downlights to energy-saving light bulbs, installing door seals, and setting up standby power controllers that turn off televisions after a certain amount of time. This news was shared via social media by ordinary citizens and met with pleasant surprise. The EEI scheme mandates the electricity company to bear the cost. And it is encouraging to see that many such schemes are emerging in rapidly growing cities. The

World Economic Forum / Sikarin Fon Thanachaiary

Peter Edwards, Director of the Singapore-ETH Centre and Future Cities Laboratory speaks at the World Economic Forum - Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, China in 2015.

Bus Rapid Transit system developed in Curitiba has now taken root in many Asian cities such as Jakarta, Beijing, and Guangzhou. The bicycle renting system in Hangzhou City is not an innovation in itself, but over 400,000 daily users makes it significant. Studies show such urban sustainability experimentations can play a significant role in sustainability.23 There is still a long way to go in terms of truly embedding sustainable principles in urban policy and practice. In particular, a closer collaboration between the research community and urban policy makers and practitioners is called for to achieve a better understanding of urban systems as well as how to translate such understanding into informed urban policy making and practice.

References 1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Urbanization

7. Chen, Z. et al. China tackles the health effects of air pollution. The Lancet 382(9909) (2013): 1959–60.

Prospects: The 2014 Revisions, Highlights (United

8. Forecast for heavy air pollution of Beijing and

Nations, New York, 2014).

Hebei. Ministry of Environmental Protection and

2. Norman, B. and S. Smith. Cities in Future Earth: A

China Meteorological Administration [online] (18

Summary of Key Considerations (Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, 2014).

December 2015) http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/ weather/Warnings/.

3. Bai, X., J. Chen, and P. Shi. Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: Positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas. Environmental Science and Technology 46(1) (2012): 132–9.

9. Ahmad, K. Pollution cloud over south Asia is increasing ill health. The Lancet 360(9332) (2002): 549. 10. Grubler, A. et al. Urban energy systems. Global

4. World Bank. East Asia’s changing urban landscape: measuring a decade of spatial growth. World Bank Group [online] (2015) http://www.worldbank.org/

Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future (2012): 1307–1400. 11. Seto, K.C. et al. Human Settlements, Infrastructure

en/topic/urbandevelopment/publication/east-asias-

and Spatial Planning in Climate Change 2014:

changing-urban-landscape-measuring-a-decade-of-

Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of

spatial-growthCached.

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5. Potts, D. The slowing of sub-Saharan Africa’s

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urbanization: evidence and implications for urban livelihoods. Environment and Urbanization 21(1) (2009): 253–9. 6. Bai, X., P. Shi, and Y. Liu. Realizing China’s urban dream. Nature 509(8) (2014): 158–60.

(eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2014). 12. Revi, A. et al. Towards transformative adaptation in cities: the IPCC’s fifth assessment. Environment and Urbanization 26(1) (2014): 11–28.

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BxHxTxCx

The heavily polluted Ciliwung River in Jarkarta, Indonesia. A research team from the Singapore-ETH Centre have developed design scenarios to revitalize the river as a green corridor.

13. Norman, B. and S. Smith. Cities in Future Earth: A

17. Klein, N. This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate (Simon & Schuster, New York, 2014).

Summary of Key Considerations (Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, 2014).

18. Steffen, W. et al. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science

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347 (2015): 1259855.

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19. Bai, X. 10 ways to make our cities liveable by 2030.

Nations, New York, 2014). 15. Liu, Y., S. Lu, and Y. Chen. Spatio-temporal change China and its driving factors. Journal of Rural Studies

Transportation Policy and Management [online] uploads/2015/04/Making-Sense-of-the-New-

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Science. New York University Rudin Center for (2015) http://www.citiesofdata.org/wp-content/

21. Trencher, G., X. Bai, and J. Evans et al. University

dream. Nature 509(8) (2014): 158–60.

153–65. 22. Townsend, A. Making Sense of the New Urban

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32 (2013): 320–330. 16. Bai, X., P. Shi, and Y. Liu. Realizing China’s urban

Part A - Human and Policy Dimensions 28 (2014):

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urban sustainability. Global Environmental Change:

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Science-of-Cities-FINAL-2015.7.7.pdf. 23. Bai, X., B. Roberts, and J. Chen. Urban sustainability experiments in Asia: patterns and pathways. Environmental Science & Policy 13(4) (2010): 312–25.

Ingram, J. et al. (2016). Food Security, Food Systems, and Environmental Change. Solutions 7(3): 63–73. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/food-security-food-systems-and-environmental-change/

Feature

Food Security, Food Systems, and Environmental Change by John Ingram, Robert Dyball, Mark Howden, Sonja Vermeulen, Tara Garnett, Barbara Redlingshöfer, Stéphane Guilbert, and John R. Porter

ne of the central sustainability challenges of our time is how to achieve food security for a population anticipated to exceed nine billion by 2050 while minimizing further environmental degradation.1 Further, food consumption patterns are changing rapidly as average wealth increases (especially for the emerging ‘middle class’ in much of the world), leading to many people consuming more food overall, and particularly more meat.2 This needs to be seen in the context of natural resource depletion, stagnating rural economies, significant social and sociocultural changes such as the ‘Westernization’ of diets, and a changing climate. The world’s food systems are failing many; a billion people do not have access to sufficient calories, and over two billion lack sufficient nutrients.3 On the other hand, over two billion others are overweight or obese, many of whom also suffer from insufficient nutrients.4 An increasing global population is only part of the problem—rising affluence for many is leading to shifts in dietary preferences, particularly an increasing appetite for animal products that have concomitant environmental and health consequences.5

In addition to health concerns, contemporary food systems contribute significantly to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, threaten biodiversity, and undermine natural processes upon which food security depends.6,7 Conversely, climate change is already affecting crop yields,8,9 while supplies of freshwater are reaching their limit in some areas due to overexploitation, mainly for irrigation.10 Expected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, especially floods and droughts, will not only affect production but also disrupt food storage, distribution, and food safety.11,12 These factors will also impact market prices for food. Given the multiple stresses on food systems, it is a complex challenge to sustainably satisfy current—let alone future—food demand. There is a need to determine how to provide adequate diets equitably while minimizing environmental degradation and without undermining the economies supporting livelihoods of the many actors and viability of the enterprises involved. A business-as-usual approach is not tenable; current food system activities coupled with increasing demand are unsustainable. New concepts, tools,

In Brief With limited global resources, and in the face of environmental changes, meeting future food security challenges will first require a shift in thinking from just ‘producing food’ (and other sectoral interests) to ‘food systems.’ Solutions will need to be applied at local and regional levels, but still be interlinked through dialogue and alliances between all food system actors, including producers, processors, retailers and consumers, policy makers, NGOs, and other food system ‘influencers’ such as civil society groups. Though progress is being made, the current level of thinking around cross-sectoral dialogue and solutions is far from adequate. Policy strategies are required at all points in the system—on both the demand and supply side. While constructive engagement with industry and individuals is crucial, change is essentially being left up to voluntary actions. Future solutions should aim to find synergies between climate mitigation and adaptation and between health and environmental goals, with inevitable trade-offs that will need careful management. However, a holistic approach should also create opportunities that may help to smooth the transition from business-as-usual to a more sustainable food system.

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and approaches are needed and practical solutions must be found on both the supply and demand ends of food systems. Indeed, it is essential to shift towards a solutions approach that integrates the health, economic, and environmental dimensions of our food systems, so as to achieve sustainable food security going forward.

and on high-productivity animal systems (e.g., dairy, feedlot, and piggeries) in warm temperate environments, but with some possible production increases in cooler environments.8

Key Concepts • Current food systems are vulnerable to climate change and associated weather extremes. They are also a major factor in causing climate change and many aspects of environmental degradation.

Farming in a Changing Climate Climate change is already affecting crop production. There has also been increased volatility in food prices partly associated with weather extremes in key food-producing regions. Wheat yields are projected to drop by up to half if the global temperature is allowed to rise 4°C above the pre-Industrial mean. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of eight to 24 percent of present-day totals when carbon dioxide fertilization effects are accounted for, or 24 to 43 percent otherwise.13 The globalization of grain markets implies that weather extremes that reduce food harvests in such regions would continue to influence world food prices.14 While the effects of climate change on production are likely to be complex—varying with time, geography, and other factors—the long-term, global picture is one of declining benefits and increasing costs.13 Tropical regions will likely be disproportionately negatively affected, with fewer benefits to crop production and more negative impacts.15 Variability in crop production is projected to increase, which makes the tasks of maintaining continuity and efficiency in value chains considerably harder. From a farm income perspective, bumper crop production can also lead to farm income losses due to lower prices. Impacts on livestock are less wellstudied but broadly follow the same response patterns as crops, with negative impacts in hot and dry climates

• Transformation of our food system to a sustainable one is needed for environmental, health, and social reasons. This will require new dialogue and alliances between different actors in the value chain, with solutions on both supply and demand sides. • Adaptation strategies for climate change will be needed on-farm and beyond the farm gate. Strategies will require a mix of smaller changes to farms and fisheries together with wholesale shifts in production landscapes and distribution systems. • Research is needed urgently into food system links with energy and nutrient flows, and options for changes in policy and practice in different environments. • Solutions aimed at managing the demand for food are also essential as they can potentially deliver substantial environmental and health benefits via a mix of regulatory, economic, social, and education strategies. • Better food system management to reduce food loss and waste is needed in the developing world by focusing on technical and logistical strategies to reduce post-harvest losses, and in affluent countries to work with retailers, restaurateurs, and consumers to reduce food waste and to turn what is wasted into a resource.

Adaptive climate change strategies can include changes in crop management, such as new planting, tillage, fertilizer, and irrigation regimes. New varieties better adapted

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to future climatic and ecological conditions are likely to emerge, and food systems suited to elevated levels of carbon dioxide will also be needed. Collectively, such measures could raise production by as much as 20 percent, depending on how the climate changes.8 For livestock, adaptations include changing breeds, forage management, new diets, housing and shade, husbandry, and changed integration with cropping. More intensive production methods can improve animal health, allowing them to put on weight quicker and emit less methane over a lifetime, but these practices raise animal welfare concerns. Changes in feed, such as the addition of natural oils, can reduce emissions substantially. Where possible, converting manure into energy (as is being done in some piggeries and dairies) saves on fuels and also cuts methane emissions. Adaptation may also include harnessing traditional knowledge (for instance, to cope with production variations due to weather extremes), and increased use of edible but underutilized “orphan crops” and forest-based or “wild” foods. The conservation of agrobiodiversity is imperative in this regard; a wealth of crop species and genetic diversity provide a bulwark against environmental change as it allows for more possible resilience. However, it must be remembered that diversified production could raise the risk of food wastage due to, for instance, a larger percentage of goods falling below necessary retail standards—this means food reserve, storage, processing, distribution, and retail policies and systems will also need to be ready.16 Finally, setting aside land for nature conservation, agroforestry, and restoration, together with sustainable soil management practices, also helps to retain carbon in the landscape. Adaptation strategies often dovetail strongly with rural sustainable development strategies by increasing

market options and/or food system resilience. Effective adaptation to climate change for the betterment of food systems thus requires policy, governance, and institutional reforms that favor investment in new technologies, infrastructure, information, good community engagement, and gender equity. Insurance markets that better reflect changing risk can be powerful drivers of adaptation, and for many rural communities especially, greater clarity and empowerment on property rights are essential. Even with a few degrees of temperature increase, production landscapes are likely to see large shifts in what food is produced where. The past will be a poor guide to the future under climate change, and so communities need to have the wherewithal to properly consider options for the systemic and transformational change (including shifting livelihoods away from agriculture) and not simply tinker with current farming and food systems.17

Solutions Beyond the Farm Gate Much of the climate–food debate focuses on the two-way interactions between climate change and food production. But the food system includes many other activities undertaken to convert materials produced on a farm into consumed food. These are termed “post-farm gate” activities and are also vulnerable to climate change. For example, climate change will likely disrupt food transport (e.g., road flooding, storm risks at ports, buckling of rails during heat waves) and higher temperatures may make it harder to maintain food safety due to potential pathogen increases.18,19 Post-farm gate activities also have a significant environmental ‘footprint’ (Table 1); for a typical food product in a high-income country (e.g., a ‘ready meal’), more than half of the direct greenhouse gas emissions can occur in haulage, storage,

USAID

Amundra, a small farmer in Northwest Uganda, is participating in the Northern Ugandan Agriculture Cooperative, a farm employing smallholder farmers, seed experts, and agricultural technology in an effort to increase production and food security in the region.

processing, packaging, cooking, and disposal.20 Note: Once we look beyond the farm gate and take in the whole food system we begin to get a better appreciation for the full impact of food, and can start to tailor solutions to address systemic problems.

Improving post-farm gate activities like storage, transport, and trade can provide both adaptation and mitigation solutions. Since large national inventories tend to raise food prices by restricting market supply and can result in 20 percent or more waste, networks of

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IMPACT

PRODUCING FOOD

PROCESSING & PACKAGING FOOD

DISTRIBUTING & RETAILING FOOD

CONSUMING FOOD

Climate change

Greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, methane, N2O) and changes in albedo from land use

Factory emissions

Emissions from transport and cold chain

Emissions of greenhouse gases and smoke from cooking and food waste

Nutrient cycle change (N and P)

Fertilizers

Factory effluent

Nitrous oxides from transport

Food waste

Fresh water use

Irrigation

Washing, heating, cooling

Cleaning food, washing-up in restaurants

Cooking, cleaning

Biodiversity loss

Landuse change, degradation of soil, pesticides, over-fishing.

Biomass for paper/card; aluminum- and iron-ore mining

Invasive species

Atmospheric aerosols

Dust from land-use change, tillage

Chemical pollution

Pesticide runoff

Factory effluent

Shipping

Smoke from cooking

Transport emissions

Cooking, cleaning

Table 1. Some examples of the environmental impacts of food system activities (adapted from Ingram10).

warehouses at subnational levels may be a better solution to reduce volatility.21 Continued improvements in and better access to information technologies will help to improve the uptake and success of logistical solutions. Food trade liberalization offers both solutions and challenges. Modeling studies suggest, for example, that regional and global trade can help to offset the price impacts of extreme weather events on irrigation.22 Food freight (food miles) typically

contributes less than other activities (e.g., refrigeration or cooking) to greenhouse gas emissions, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts.23,24 Nevertheless, evidence suggests trade liberalization can drive up deforestation in areas of high agricultural potential, increasing emissions and biodiversity loss,25 particularly in the Amazon basin. There is also concern that global corporations can evade social and environmental responsibilities where the food is

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being grown. Thus, effective trade solutions must also incorporate better governance and regulation to limit unwanted environmental and social impacts.26 Greater attention to supply chain management has the potential to enable adaptation to changing conditions, often delivering efficiency savings, which cuts emissions in turn. However, despite their potential as adaptive and mitigating strategies, these solutions remain under-researched.

Bob Nichols / USDA

A farmer in Texas uses modern technology to harvest grain sorghum.

Towards Sustainable Eating Much can be done to reduce the environmental impacts of primary production and improve the efficiency of the food system beyond the farm gate. However, if absolute reductions in food-related greenhouse gas emissions and other impacts are to be achieved, then the demand side of the equation must also be addressed.27,28 As the environmental impacts are severe, growing demand for animal products specifically needs to be moderated and, among more intense consumers, reduced. Rearing animals for meat, eggs, and milk generates 14.5 percent of total global greenhouse gas emissions, occupies 70 percent of agricultural land (including a third of arable land for feed crops), is the main agricultural cause of ecosystem degradation, and is also a major source of water

pollution.29,30 There are also concerns about the depletion of wild fish stocks and the negative effects of overfishing on aquatic ecosystems. Prolonged and intense overexploitation not only delays population rebuilding but also substantially increases the uncertainty in recovery times, especially for collapsed stocks.31 Further, there are significant implications for human health. As incomes rise, so does demand for animal products. Animal products are rich in protein and micronutrients, and hence can form part of a healthy diet. But overconsumption is associated with a range of non-communicable diseases. While specifics vary by context and individual, more sustainable and healthy eating patterns center on a diverse range of tubers, whole grains, legumes, and fruits and vegetables, with animal products eaten

sparingly.32,33 These conclusions hold not just at the country level but also globally.6 Estimates vary but suggest that dietary changes in high-income countries can achieve per-capita greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 25 to 50 percent without abandoning cultural norms.33,34 Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by six to 10 percent and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29 to 70 percent compared with a reference scenario in 2050.35 A few governments, such as those of Sweden and the Netherlands, are already beginning to integrate policies related to this idea to better address health and environmental objectives.36,37 There is, of course, no one-size-fitsall policy fix, and solutions should take account of the important cultural

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Ken Hammond / USDA

Oranges are processed at a plant in Florida.

role of producing and consuming meat. While there is scope for synergies between environmental and health outcomes, trade-offs will need to be understood and addressed. Reshaping eating patterns to minimize environmental and health risks is not easy. There are uncertainties and knowledge gaps, and more research into demand-side strategies is urgently needed, but this is not an excuse for inaction. Indeed, action produces data and there is already a discernible, broad path forward. So far, it seems a mix of direct regulation and market-based interventions will be needed alongside “softer” approaches such as public education and social marketing campaigns. On the other hand, change is unlikely if left up to independent individual action or industry goodwill.38

Cutting Food Loss and Waste Food loss and waste is estimated to be about one-third of global production.39,40 It has recently emerged on political and research agenda as a major issue, and reducing it would help to reduce the food system’s environmental impacts.41,42 Postharvest storage losses are generally more important in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, while in more affluent parts of the world, food waste mainly occurs in supermarkets, eateries, and the home.39 Relatively simple technical and behavioral changes (such as weather-proofing grain stores or thinking more carefully about discarding wholesome food) have high potential to help reduce food loss and waste. In poorer countries, both technical (e.g., storage, packaging, product stabilization, and communication

68 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

infrastructure) and organizational innovations (e.g., access to capital by microfinance, warehouse receipting and inventory credits, and cooperation and mutualizing investments) could reduce postharvest loss.43 In more affluent countries, data sharing, flow monitoring, and smart sensors could enable a more precise matching between supply and demand, and greater efficiency savings.2 Innovative manufacturing and packaging technologies and more flexible supply-chain organization could deliver a wider access to food otherwise rejected by the market. New marketing opportunities such as stock clearance, on-site processing, and food donations can also cut waste. Leftover food can be recovered and recycled, for example, as animal feed, anaerobic digestion, and composting.44

References 1. UN-DESA. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables [online] (2015) http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/ files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf. 2. Vranken, L., T. Avermaete, D. Petalios, and E. Mathijs. Curbing global meat consumption: emerging evidence of a second nutrition transition. Environmental Science & Policy 39 (2014): 95–106. 3. FAO, IFAD, and WFP. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2014. Strengthening the enabling environment for food security and nutrition. (FAO, Rome, 2013). 4. Countries vow to combat malnutrition through firm policies and actions. World Health Organization [online] (2014) http://www.who.int/ mediacentre/news/releases/2014/icn2-nutrition/en/. 5. Kharas, H. The emerging middle class in developing countries. OECD Report No. 1815–1949 (2010). 6. Tilman, D. and M. Clark. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health.

Patrik Rastenberger / NEFCO

A cattle farm in Oisu, Estonia.

Nature 515 (2014): 518–22. 7. Ingram, J. S. I. A food systems approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change. Food Security 3 (2011): 417–31.

The cold chain—continuous storage of perishable foods at controlled temperatures from farm-gate to consumer—is well established in many parts of the world and is increasingly prevalent in developing countries.45 It provides an obvious solution to reducing food waste and improving food safety under global warming. At temperatures below 10°C, each reduction of 1°C approximately halves bacterial growth.46 While refrigeration comes at carbon cost, greater attention to precision and other energy-saving techniques can balance the benefits of reduced food waste with the costs of energy use.47,48 However, many efforts over recent decades have shown that solutions are very context-specific and require strong collaboration with local producers, wholesalers, and other stakeholders. This involves taking into account the food systems approach as a whole with its long-term economic benefits and return-on-investment so as to understand the possible incentives and barriers in implementing interventions aimed at improving health and environmental outcomes.49 Overall, a mix of regulation, financial tools, and education and training is

required to help all food system actors from producers to consumers move towards less wasteful practices.50

8. Porter, J. R. et al. Food security and food production

Final Thoughts

10. Elliott, J. M. and J.A. Elliott. Temperature

systems. IPCC AR5 (2014). 9. Lobell, D. B., W. Schlenker, and J. Costa-Roberts. Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980. Science 333 (2011): 616–20.

The impacts of current food systems on climate and other environmental parameters are significant, seriously degrading the natural resource base upon which our food security and other aspects of well-being depend. While positive developments including higher yields per hectare, higher feed efficiencies in livestock and aquaculture production, and higher labor productivity in many areas have helped address food security worldwide, they come at a cost for both health and environment. New policies and practices need to be developed which reduce the environmental impacts while improving health outcomes and maintaining the enterprises and associated livelihoods for the many people working within food systems. The necessary transformations of food systems will need dialogue and new alliances between all actors in the food system, including policy makers, producers, processors, retailers, and consumers ourselves.

requirements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus: predicting the effects of climate change. Journal of Fish Biology 77 (2010): 1793–817. 11. Bailey, R. Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system (GFS London, 2015). 12. Miraglia, M. et al. Climate change and food safety: an emerging issue with special focus on Europe. Food and Chemical Toxicology 47 (2009): 1009–21. 13. Elliott, J. et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (2014): 3239–44. 14. Gbegbelegbe, S., U. Chung, B. Shiferaw, S. Msangi, and K. Tesfaye. Quantifying the impact of weather extremes on global food security: a spatial bioeconomic approach. Weather and Climate Extremes 4 (2014): 96–108. 15. Wheeler, T. and J. von Braun. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341 (2013): 508–13. 16. Stathers, T., R. Lamboll, and B.M. Mvumi. Postharvest agriculture in changing climates: its importance to African smallholder farmers. Food Security 5 (2013): 361–92. 17. Rickards, L. and S. Howden. Transformational adaptation: agriculture and climate change. Crop and Pasture Science 63 (2012): 240–50. 18. Boxall, A. B. A. et al. Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture. Environmental Health Perspectives 117 (2009): 508–14.

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Food loss and waste is estimated to be about one-third of global production.

future irrigation shortfalls. Global Environmental

19. Brown, M. et al. Climate Change, Global Food

Change 29 (2014): 22–31.

Security, and the U.S. Food System (USDA, Washington DC, 2015).

23. Weber, C. L. and H.S. Matthews. Food-miles and

20. Garnett, T. Where are the best opportunities for

the relative climate impacts of food choices in the

reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food

United States. Environmental Science & Technology 42,

system (including the food chain)? Food Policy 36

(2008): 3508–13.

(2011): S23–32.

24. Rivera, X. C. S., N.E. Orias, and A. Azapagic. Life

21. Price volatility in food and agricultural markets:

cycle environmental impacts of convenience food: Comparison of ready and home-made meals. Journal

policy responses. G20 [online] (2011)

of Cleaner Production 73 (2014): 294–309.

http://www.oecd.org/agriculture/pricevolatilityin foodandagriculturalmarketspolicyresponses.htm.

25. Schmitz, C. et al. Trading more food: Implications for

22. Liu, J., T.W. Hertel, F. Taheripour, T. Zhu, and C. Ringler. International trade buffers the impact of

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land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system. Global Environmental Change 22 (2012): 189–209.

26. Angelsen, A. Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (2010): 19639–44. 27. Foley, J. A. et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478 (2011) 337–42. 28. Bajželj, B. et al. Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation. Nature Climate Change 4 (2014): 924–9. 29. Gerber, P. J. et al. Tackling climate change through livestock: a global assessment of emissions and mitigation opportunities (FAO, Rome, 2013). 30. Steinfeld, H. et al. Livestock’s long shadow: environmental issues and options (FAO, Rome, 2006).

Tijana-Fotolia.com

More sustainable healthy eating habits center on whole grains, fruits, and vegetables, with animal products eaten sparingly.

Börjesson. Environmental impact of dietary change: a systematic review. Journal of Cleaner Production 91 (2015): 1–11. Scarborough. Analysis and valuation of the health

45. Reardon, T., K.Z. Chen, B. Minten, and L. Adriano.

36. Health Council of the Netherlands. Guidelines for a

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[online] (2011) https://www.gezondheidsraad.nl/

46. James, S. and C. James. The food cold-chain and

37. Find your way, to eat greener, not too much and be active. Livsmedelsverket [online] (2015) https://www.

climate change. Food Research International 43 (2010): 1944–56.

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marine populations. Science 340 (2013): 374–9.

Enter the dragon, the elephant, and the tiger. IFPRI Washington DC (2012).

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32. Auestad, N. andV.L. Fulgoni. What current

countries: opportunities to improve resource use.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2016). healthy diet: the ecological perspective. The Hague,

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losses and waste in developed and less developed The Journal of Agricultural Science 149 (2011): 37–45.

and climate change cobenefits of dietary change.

31. Neubauer, P., O.P Jensen, J.A. Hutchings, and J.K.

(FAO, Rome, 2010). 44. Hodges, R.J., J.C. Buzby, and B. Bennett. Postharvest

35. Springmann, M., H.C.J. Godfray, M. Rayner, and P.

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47. Tassou, S., Y. Ge, A. Hadawey, and D. Marriott. Energy consumption and conservation in food retailing. Applied Thermal Engineering 31 (2011): 147–56.

38. Garnett, T., S. Mathewson, P. Angelides, and F. Borthwick. Policies and actions to shift eating

48. Brown, T., N. Hipps, S. Easteal, A. Parry, and J. Evans.

patterns: what works? (FCRN, Oxford, 2015).

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39. Gustavsson, J., C. Cederberg, U. Sonesson, R. Van

refrigerator temperatures. International Journal of

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Refrigeration 40 (2014): 246–53. 49. Kitinoja, L., S. Saran, S.K. Roy, and A.A. Kader.

40. Lipinski, B. et al. Reducing food loss and waste.

Postharvest technology for developing countries:

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Agriculture 91 (2011): 597–603.

41. Lundqvist, J., C. de Fraiture, and D. Molden. Saving

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42. Garrone, P., M. Melacini, and A. Perego. Opening

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Towards Solutions to the Global Nutrient Challenge by Sarah E. Cornell and Hanna Ahlström Nitrogen and phosphorus are essential nutrients underpinning the global food system. World agriculture has come to rely on synthetic nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers (Table 1), enabling dramatic increases in food production but also increasing nutrient leakage into the environment, at a cost to farmers and society alike. Sustainable nutrient management in the Anthropocene is now a major global challenge.1 Most of the world’s anthropogenically emitted nitrogen is fixed industrially in an energy-intensive process. Combustion, mainly by the power and transport sectors, is also a source. The phosphorus used in agriculture and industrial production comes from rock phosphate, which is a finite resource—although it is managed as if it were not. Moreover, converting the mineral into usable phosphate is also energy expensive. Nutrient pollution affects air, water, and soil quality, with adverse impacts on ecosystem health. Effects are most obvious locally, but nutrient pollution cascades through Earth systems. Nitrogen fertilizers, for example, are a source of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. Everything indicates that nutrient demand and impacts will rise, unless decisions today change global use. The world’s fertilizer use is very unequally distributed, with roughly half being applied to just 10 percent of the world’s cropland. In other places, food insecurity arises because soils lack nutrients.2 For the poorest farmers, synthetic fertilizers are unaffordable.3 Globalized trade means consumers are

disconnected from the consequences of rising nutrient use on farms. Solutions are needed that lift food production without causing environmental harm, locking people in poverty, or lumbering them with unsustainable dependence. Here we discuss some ways forward in the complex environmental and social landscape of nutrient management. Respecting Planetary Boundaries Planetary boundaries are proposed limits to human interference in Earth system processes. Initially, a boundary was proposed for synthetic nitrogen fixation, sharply reducing this new flow into the Earth system. A phosphorus boundary was based on evidence of impacts of land-to-sea flows. Boundaries have since been suggested for other environmental impacts.2,4 If the whole world were to use industrial nitrogen fertilizer to satisfy food demand, applications would be more than six times greater than the original boundary. Sustainable nutrient management therefore needs to square a circle marked out by Earth system dynamics, local environmental impacts, human well-being, and global justice. Is it possible? The minimum amount of synthetic nitrogen fixation required to sustain humanity is around 50 to 80 million metric tons per year. The maximum amount that can be applied without serious environmental effect is around 60 to 100 million metric tons. So it may be possible, but only with substantial changes to agricultural and industrial practices, policy, and environmental assessment.

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Improving Scientific Understanding We need a concerted research effort on nutrients in the Earth system. Current observations and models only allow for limited investigation of how changing nutrient cycles affect (and are affected by) changes in climate and ecosystems on land and in oceans. Setting boundaries without attention to these links may not be appropriate. The Global Partnership on Nutrient Management has recently called for a global scientific assessment of nutrient cycling, use, and impacts.1 A regional example is the 2011 European Nitrogen Assessment. Strengthening Nutrient Policies Policies dealing with nutrient-related concerns have been implemented in parts of the world where problems have become acute. An example is the UNECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (the Air Convention). This initially focused on end-of-pipe technical solutions for polluting emissions. More recently, it shifted its attention to pollution prevention, tackling a wider range of pollutants. Pollution prevention policies need to attend to all stages of the nutrient use process: processing, transportation, management, application, and recycling. Europe’s Water Framework Directive attempts to do this. It aims to achieve ‘good status’ of all waters, both ecologically and chemically, through better management of whole river basins. Similarly, the Air Convention’s Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen now considers the whole nitrogen cycle as it

develops guidance on agricultural practices. For phosphorus, the institutional milieu is more fragmented than for nitrogen, but this means that actors and institutions can be mobilized in ways that can, from the outset, deal with cross-sectoral and cross-scale issues.

regulatory changes can help close the food-system cycle.5 New life-cycle impact assessments translate the science of nutrient pollution into business decision-support tools. These help businesses to internalize nutrient pollution costs and harness the creative energies of the private sector to find solutions.

Translating Science into On-The-Ground Solutions Changing farming practices can increase nutrient-use efficiency, including precision agriculture technologies that respond to crop needs, controlled-release fertilizers, and improved cropping systems. These all involve on-farm science, working with people who make daily decisions about nutrient use. One example is dNmark, a Danish-led network that links farmers, land planners, and researchers to test ways to optimize decisions for sustainable nitrogen use. Elsewhere, old ways of integrating agriculture with sewage and water treatment are being used. Japan’s Phosphorus Recycling Promotion Council shows how economic incentives, technical improvements, and

Towards a Global Solution to a Global Problem Perturbed nutrient cycles have consequences at all scales, so their management should be everyone’s business. However, international governance of nutrient management is patchy. Interests often clash, and power relations of stakeholders are asymmetric. It is difficult to identify knowledge needs, propose options for action, and evaluate implementation. Forums are emerging to share best practices for tackling the nutrient problem. The Global Partnership for Nutrient Management enables governments, industry, researchers, international agencies, and nongovernmental organizations to write a shared agenda

Nitrogen (000 tonnes N)

for redistributing nutrients more fairly. It gives space for dialogue about national responsibility for global concerns. A global, solutions-focused approach to nutrient management is in its infancy. Key to all solutions is actually recognizing it as a complex global, cross-sectoral, cross-scale problem. From there dialogue, research, and reforms appropriate to the task can begin to take shape. References 1. Sutton, M.A. et al. Our Nutrient World: The Challenge to Produce More Food and Energy With Less Pollution (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, 2013). 2. De Vries, W., J. Kros, C. Kroeze, and S.P. Seitzinger. Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 5 (2013): 392–402. 3. Kahiluoto, H. Taking planetary nutrient boundaries seriously: can we feed the people? Global Food Security 3 (2013): 16–21. 4. Steffen, W. et al. Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347 (2015). 5. Shiroyama, H., M. Matsuo, and M. Yarime. Issues and policy measures for phosphorus recycling from sewage: lessons from stakeholder analysis of Japan. Global Environmental Research 19 (2015): 67–76.

Phosphorus (000 tonnes P2O5*)

1993

2013

% change

1993

2013

% change

Developed countries

30,612

33,358

13,528

10,795

-20

Developing countries

41,585

77,145

15,423

29,511

Global total

72,197

110,493

28,951

40,306

Table 1. Global N and P fertilizer consumption in 1993 and 2013. *P2O5 (phosphorus pentoxide) is how P concentration in fertilizers is expressed. Data shown are total N and total P2O5, including compound fertilizers, in thousands of metric tons of nutrients. Data and country classification from the International Fertilizer Industry Association (ifadata.fertilizer.org).

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Jotzo, F. (2016). Decarbonizing the World Economy. Solutions 7(3): 74–83. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/decarbonizing-the-world-economy/

Feature

Decarbonizing the World Economy by Frank Jotzo

Takver

Members of the U.S. youth group SustainUS gathered at COP21 in Paris. Individuals painted circles around one eye to signify their support for zero emissions by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5C. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways project has revealed that significant decarbonization is possible while growing economies by the year 2050.

In Brief The world’s carbon emissions have been flat for two years. Is this the start of global decarbonization, as is needed to fulfill the promise of the Paris climate change agreement? For this to happen, much more needs to be done than countries are currently planning. But it is possible to take the carbon out of the world economy over the coming decades, and to do so with increased economic prosperity in all countries. The four pillars of ‘decarbonization’ are energy efficiency, zero emissions electricity, replacing fossil fuels with this clean electricity in transport, building and industry, and ensuring that nature’s role as a large sink of carbon emissions is recognized. Detailed country-level studies as part of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways project show that this can be done using existing technologies. Future technological progress will make the transformation easier to achieve. The solutions differ according to countries’ circumstances, but all major countries can decarbonize while growing their economy. The macroeconomic cost of ‘deep’ decarbonization is low relative to underlying economic growth and the cost of climate change impacts. The cost is falling as technologies improve, and low-carbon technologies can bring many other benefits. To ensure that the current tapering of carbon emissions continues, we need a policy environment that enables transition of carbon intensive industries, supports the development of new clean technologies, and facilitates investment in low-carbon equipment and infrastructure. Economic policy reform for low-carbon growth can be attractive for national governments. But to achieve it, governments need to lead and embrace change. 74 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

n 2014 global economic output grew by three percent, while global carbon dioxide emissions remained constant. For 2015, a fall in emissions is expected, with the global economy again growing at around the long-term average. The key factor is that emissions growth in China has slowed significantly, along with reductions across developed countries.1 Has the world managed to decouple economic growth from emissions? Is humanity on the way to sustained reductions in emissions, thus avoiding the worst of future climate change impacts? It would be surprising if it were so. The pledges that countries have made under the Paris climate agreement would have global emissions continuing to grow slowly until around 2030, and then declining only very gradually.2 Much stronger action will be needed to take the carbon out of energy and industrial systems at a rate that will limit global warming to two degrees or less. The dilemma is that the traditional model of development and industrialization has been resource and energy intensive. For every person living in a developed economy, there are more than four living in countries that are still in the process of building up their industries and infrastructure. The large majority of people in the world strive for lifestyles that are materially more intensive, aspiring to the levels of housing, travel, and general material comfort that are common in rich countries. This transformation is happening and will continue to happen, driven by the fundamental and undeniable desire for a better life, which for most people includes greater material consumption. But if future development were to take place in the old mode of industrial development, then the global carbon budget would be blown quickly and climate change would threaten future economic prosperity. For example, from 2003 to 2013, China increased its economic output two-and-a-half fold and more than

doubled its carbon dioxide emissions. If this was replicated in other developing countries, there would be no hope of limiting climate change to anywhere near safe levels. Reductions in annual emissions in developed countries would not be able to compensate for it.

Key Concepts • The traditional model of development and industrialization is resource and energy intensive, raising carbon dioxide emissions as economies grow. • Keeping global temperature increase to below 2°C will require global net greenhouse gas emissions to decrease dramatically, eventually towards zero.

if emphasis is placed on cleaner technologies and a shift to a less materially intensive economy. China’s coal consumption has probably already peaked, thanks to declining output of heavy industries like steel and cement, continuous improvement in energy, and expansion of zero-carbon energy sources including wind, hydro, and solar power as well as nuclear energy. Some of these energy sources have their own problems for sustainability, but they are effective in cutting greenhouse gas emissions as well as air pollution. Some analysts suggest that China’s peak in carbon emissions may be just around the corner.3

Decarbonization

• It is now possible to decarbonize economic growth and to achieve deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while increasing economic activity and prosperity. • Decarbonization is built on four pillars: improved energy efficiency, zero emissions electricity supply, using clean electricity instead of fossil fuels wherever possible, and making the land sector a large sink of carbon emissions. • The necessary technologies already exist and are increasingly affordable. The macroeconomic costs are low relative to underlying economic growth and relative to the avoided future costs of climate change. There can also be big co-benefits, like cleaner local environments and economic modernization. • Making the low-emissions transition happen is a challenge for policy. Governments need to implement policies that are environmentally effective, cost effective, and socially acceptable.

Thankfully, a fundamental change is already underway, most evidently in China. China’s ‘new normal’ shows that some aspects of industrialization can take place without great increases in greenhouse gas emissions

Taking the carbon out of economic growth is possible, and societies may find it easier to achieve decarbonization than initially thought because of tremendous technological opportunities. Carbon-free energy technology is improving rapidly and becoming cheaper. The most spectacular case in recent times has been solar power technology, which is rapidly becoming cost competitive with the traditional fossil fuel in many circumstances. Most additions to global power producing capacity are the result of renewables , predominantly hydro and wind power, and fast growth in solar power.4 In addition, the economic productivity of energy use continues to increase rapidly, and substitutes can be found for many production processes that emit greenhouse gases directly. This is shown by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways project, a collaborative global research initiative involving 16 of the largest economies.5 Detailed analysis for each country shows pathways for transition to a low-carbon economy. It brings to bear nationally based expertise, analytical tools and data, and insights about the specific physical, economic, and social opportunities and constraints in each country. The pathways can serve

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as blueprints for change, sector by sector and over time. The deep decarbonization pathways are “backcasts,” defining a desirable future and working backwards to identify what needs to be done to achieve the goal. What emerges is a picture of great diversity in the specifics, but a common and robust insight: decarbonization is possible while accommodating economic and population growth. GDP in the scenarios grows by 250 percent from 2010 to 2050, while carbon dioxide emissions are reduced to around two tons per person in the most ambitious scenarios, equivalent to an 87 percent reduction in the aggregate ratio of carbon dioxide to GDP (or emissions intensity of the economies) and a 62 percent reduction in per capita emissions. Decarbonization in the energy sector, the key to a low carbon transformation of the world economy, involves three pillars: • Energy efficiency: Improving the energy efficiency of products and processes, and improving the overall energy productivity by shifting to less energy intensive activities. Such changes can often pay for themselves, though barriers to implementation need to be overcome. • Decarbonizing electricity and fuels: Reducing the carbon content of all transformed energies such as electricity, heat, liquids, and gases. In the power sector, this means replacing coal, as well as gas and oil, with renewable energy (such as hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) or nuclear power. Fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage may also have a role. Biofuels and carbon-free synthetic fuels also have an important role, especially in transport. • Electrification and fuel switching: Replacing the direct use of fossil fuels with carbon-free electric

James Moran

One example of success in carbon-free technology is solar power, which is rapidly becoming cost competitive with traditional fossil fuel alternatives in many circumstances.

energy; for example, in space heating, electric vehicles, and industrial processes and switching to lower-emissions fuels. A fourth pillar can be very important in some countries: reducing deforestation and increasing tree plantings to sequester carbon as well as better practices in agriculture and some industrial processes.6 Putting a stop to deforestation can reduce global carbon dioxide emissions significantly in the short term. Extensive use of afforestation could help deliver netzero emissions outcomes in the longer term, as shown in the Australian deep decarbonization study.7 The national analyses show that these elements interact, and that a very low emissions outcome can be achieved in any of the major economies when

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action under all pillars is implemented at sufficient scale. For example, energy efficiency limits electricity demand and thereby limits the required investment in carbon-free electricity. And decarbonization of electricity is a necessary precondition for electrification to be effective in avoiding emissions. The deep decarbonization pathways show that countries’ energy productivity (the ratio of GDP to energy use) improves by around three times on average from now to 2050. This is done through measures such as better vehicle fuel economy, building design and construction materials, more efficient industrial processes, machinery, and appliances, and changes in consumption patterns. Electricity becomes nearly carbon free by mid-century, with the carbon intensity of the power sector across

Bureau of IIP

Reducing deforestation and increasing tree plantings can reduce global carbon emissions significantly in the short term. Here, community members observe the initial results of an ambitious project to plant one million trees in Ethiopia.

the countries reduced by a factor of 15. Some countries move to an almost 100 percent renewable energy grid, with storage and some gas-fired peak generation, while others rely on a mix of renewable power and nuclear energy as well as fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage. Across the board there is a shift away from coal and ultimately also away from gas and oil. In all country studies, decarbonization is achieved in a way that fosters continued economic growth and more sustainable modes of economic growth. For example, new investment in the energy sector can help drive growth. The aggressive pursuit of energy efficiency helps reduce energy poverty and improves energy access to all parts of society. New technologies that allow dramatic improvements in energy

efficiency are possible, including at the household level—and as a result, energy bills can fall, even if the cost of producing electricity rises on account of large investments in new lowcarbon plants. Importantly, shifting to low carbon energy and industrial systems also means less local air pollution, with benefits for health and quality of life. These very proximate benefits are a major driver, for example, for China’s efforts to cut back on coal consumption. Other co-benefits can include improved energy supply security through greater reliance on renewables, which are not dependent on fuel supply chains and do not bring the risk of fuel cost blowouts. Countries with an advanced manufacturing industry also expect major new business opportunities in the low-emissions energy systems of the future.8

Policies to Drive Change Governments have a key role in making decarbonization possible. To achieve it will require a continued effort to develop technologies further and to continue to cut their costs. It also requires incentives to deploy lowemissions technologies where they are not yet commercially competitive with high carbon alternatives. Larger investments in technology development will be needed, many of them internationally coordinated. In some cases, such investments in research and development (R&D) will be attractive to private industry if the expectation is that there is a commercial return to be made. But where private enterprise cannot capture sufficient benefits from innovation, there needs to be public investment in R&D.

Continued on Page 78

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The Danish Climate Investment Fund by Torben Möger Pedersen In January 2014, PensionDanmark together with the Danish government, IFU (Denmark’s Investment Fund for Developing Countries), and a number of other institutional investors established the Danish Climate Investment Fund. The fund is managed by IFU and is an excellent example of a blended finance Public Private Partnership (PPP), where private sector money can be used to leverage the competencies that are already in public financial institutions (DFI’s, development banks, export credit agencies, etc.). The current total commitment to the fund is more than USD$200 million, with the public funds coming from the Danish government and IFU. The fund will be an active minority investor and only contributes part of the total project financing to the individual projects. To implement the projects, further financing is required from other public and private investors such as Danish industrial partners, local banks, and other climate focused funds. Total investments in projects with Danish Climate Fund involvement is expected to be in the range of USD$1.3 to $1.5 billion. The fund will invest in projects that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas

emissions, directly or indirectly, including: renewable energy projects, e.g. solar, hydro, and wind; alternative energy projects, e.g. biogas from animal stock; and, transport projects, e.g. urban public transportation systems. The fund´s investment period will run for four years. Thereafter projects will be operationally optimized and prepared for divestments to other local or climate finance investors, and the investors expect to receive the capital and return during a period of six years after the investment period. Returns are distributed using a waterfall model giving the private investors some downside protection, whereas the public money has an upside advantage. The size of the fund was limited by the investment appetite of the Danish Government and IFU, since institutional investors were ready to commit to a larger investment had the government and IFU decided to increase their investments. Hence, the model is very much scalable. Lake Turkana Wind Farm The fund recently made its first big investment (EUR€11.6 million) in a wind farm in Lake Turkana, Kenya. The wind farm consists of 365 turbines at a total of

310MW (plus a 430 km transmission line). When operational in 2018, the wind farm will produce the equivalent of 15 percent of Kenya’s power consumption. The total project costs are expected to be approximately EUR€679 million (the amount and the project do not include the transmission line of approximately EUR€120 million). The financing structure is 26 percent equity, 64 percent senior debt, and 10 percent mezzanine. Equity holders include the Danish Climate Investment Fund, Vestas, Google, FinnFund, and Norfund, whereas senior debt and mezzanine finance provided include AfDB and EIB. There are major investment opportunities within renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries. However, few projects are bankable in their initial form, since risk/return profile are typically not in line with most institutional investors’ investment criteria. Risk bearing (concessional) mechanisms financed mainly by public funds (DFI’s, development banks, etc.) in the form of grants, concessional loans, insurance, guarantees, equity/ quasi-equity infusion, etc. can make investments attractive for institutional investors. This is an example of just how this can be achieved.

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research and development investment over five years. An alliance of private investors, the “Breakthrough Energy Coalition,” fronted by Bill Gates, intends to facilitate investments in clean energy. Government action to support advanced clean technology does not have to involve subsidies. For example, Australia’s Clean Energy

Finance Corporation is a government fund with a mandate to invest in low-carbon energy options in order to catalyze private-sector investment, and it is making a financial return for the Australian government. Options to decarbonize are taken up by the market where and when the costs of the clean option falls below that of the traditional high polluting

The Paris UN climate conference saw the announcement of two initiatives that could be significant in scaling up global clean technology development. Under the label “mission innovation,” 20 governments have committed to doubling governmental or state-directed clean energy

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Some countries still subsidize fossil fuels and thereby encourage their use. Cutting subsidies for oil, coal, and gas and replacing them with taxes is a sensible step for all of these countries. Not only does it give proper incentives to save energy, cutting subsidies also is a boon to government budgets. Other policy approaches also have important roles. Governments can use their regulatory powers to impose emissions standards for products, processes, vehicles, and plants. An example is the US Clean Power Plan, which mandates emissions intensity targets for electricity generation. Many governments support the deployment of renewable electricity installations, for example, by mandating or paying tariffs for renewable electricity above the going rate in power markets or by mandating that a certain amount of renewable power be used. Minimum energy efficiency standards for cars, appliances, and houses are another example of regulatory options. If used judiciously, these can help consumers save money in the long run. Providing information to citizens and businesses is also important, as opportunities to cut energy use are often foregone simply because people are not aware of them. Finally, governments can also use their own procurement to favor low-emissions products, setting an example and supporting emerging industries. John Picken

The Greenway parking building in Chicago, a highly energy efficient building in the downtown area that incorporates several sustainable aspects into its design, including these energy-generating wind turbines.

alternative. This has long been so in many energy-saving technologies, and it is beginning to be the case for renewable energy projects in some parts of the world. In many other cases, government policy intervention is required and will also be needed in the future in order for decarbonization to happen. Carbon pricing has a key role in a

cost-effective policy mix, as it provides a consistent incentive throughout an economy to cut emissions. Many countries already have emissions trading or carbon taxes in place, though very few of them are at levels that can effect deep change—they operate in tandem with other measures. China is preparing to put in place the largest global cap-and-trade scheme in the world.

Would It Cost the Earth? The fact that various types of policy interventions are necessary to help bring about deep cuts in emissions indicates that the cleaner technologies are often still the more expensive way of making a product or providing a service. Typically, zero-carbon technologies and processes have higher up-front investment costs but lower operating costs. The costs of new technologies tend to fall as they are more widely adopted. In some cases the cost reductions are dramatic. For example, the cost of

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solar photovoltaic panels has fallen to a fraction of the cost a decade ago as a result of technical improvements and scaling up of manufacturing plants. Steep learning curves and cost declines were also observed with wind turbines and many other technologies and can be expected for energy storage, electric vehicles, and many other elements of a decarbonized economy. The news gets even better: experience shows that analysts tend to be pessimistic about the extent of technological improvements and the rate of cost reductions in new, emissions saving technologies and therefore overestimate the likely costs of decarbonization.9 Even if typical economic cost estimates for the transition to a lowemissions world economy turned out correct, this would not be a large drag on future growth. The IPCC found that estimates of economic costs for cutting emissions in line with what is needed for a two degree outcome are in the range of two to six percent of GDP by 2050, which translates into a reduction in annual economic growth of just 0.06 to 0.17 percent per year.10 This means continued fast economic growth. Under typical projections, the global economy would reach a given size—much larger than today’s—in about 2051 to 2053 rather than in the year 2050 and in return forever avoid the worst risk of climate change. These numbers assume that a lower-carbon economy would be less productive than a traditional high-emissions version. Whether that assumption holds in practice is not altogether certain: it may well turn out that investment in a low-emissions system enhances economic growth. None of these cost analyses takes into account the economic advantages from avoiding the worst of climate change. The long-term economic benefits of less climate change, including the reduction in risk of truly bad outcomes, are highly likely to pay for the costs incurred in the medium term.11

Roy Kaltschmidt / Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Then U.S. Secretary of Energy Steve Chu spoke about the future of energy research in the U.S. at the Berkeley National Lab in October 2009, where he announced USD$151 million in funding for renewable energy sources.

This is before considering noneconomic benefits from curbing climate change, or the co-benefits from a cleaner industrial system. Health benefits from lower air pollution could exceed the cost of shifting to a cleaner energy system in many regions and could avoid a large number of premature deaths.12

Charting the Transition Although it is uncertain just which technologies will prevail, the end point of a low-emissions global economy is reasonably clear. The pathways, however, are uncertain, and in many cases, the transition is challenging. Decarbonization will mean the decline or even demise of substantial subsets of existing industries, especially fossil fuels. They will be replaced with new industries that bring new investment, profit opportunities, and jobs. But it can be difficult to identify just what will take the place of a declining activity. This can create fear of change. The issues can be sharply defined in regional and temporal terms, and

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that can mean significant political difficulty. What will take the place of a particular coal mine or fossil fuel-fired power station and how long does it take for new investments to come on line? If a conventional car plant shuts its gate because people start buying electric vehicles produced elsewhere, where will the workers find new jobs and what happens to the communities around the old plant? All economies have experienced episodes of industrial transformation. How easy or hard the transitions are depends on the speed and extent of change, the circumstances, and how the processes are handled. Governments can help achieve good transitions in several ways. First, it is important to signal that change is coming and that it will be embraced, and to do so clearly and early. This helps businesses, workers, and communities prepare. Businesses can avoid investing in old-style assets that end up stranded in a low-carbon economy and instead shift into modern alternatives. Workers can look for opportunities elsewhere well

JM Digne

The Paris Agreement has set a clear global precedent that the world will act on climate change.

before carbon-intensive plants shut down. Cities and towns have time to attract other businesses or to manage the decline in a way that is palatable to the community if decline is inevitable. Which mix of policy instruments can best achieve this is a matter for economics and politics. In a market economy, putting a price on emissions—through a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme—will generally be the most cost-effective approach. But governments need to be able to make a credible and lasting commitment to carbon pricing. Other policies are needed to address other market failures, such as support for R&D of new technologies and regulation in areas where pricing may not be as effective, for example, agriculture or energy efficiency. Second, governments can and may need to address the effects on income distribution of the low-carbon transition. For example, higher energy prices—needed to incentivize energy savings—tend to disproportionately affect the poor. Governments can cushion the impacts, for example, by providing tax relief or extra welfare payments to low-income households or by subsidizing energy efficient appliances.

Governments will have an important role to play as some industries decline while other rise. Examples are to provide structural assistance packages to local communities, encourage and facilitate investment in new industries, and to retrain workers that leave declining ‘brown’ industries. Ultimately, governments can help provide an institutional environment that facilitates change. In some cases this may simply mean for government to not stand in the way of transition initiated by businesses and individuals. One example is streamlining regulation, another is to avoid propping up industries that are being displaced. In other cases, it may mean creating institutions that help in the transition, such as agencies that help kick-start investment in new industries.

Paris Has Set the Direction The Paris Agreement, with its strong agreed global ambition and a mechanism for ratcheting up nationally determined contributions to the global effort, has set a clear signal: the world will act on climate change. The world community will rely on the actions of each country to get to the overall goal. Progress will be incremental but likely

to accelerate given clear underlying direction and broad international consensus. The clarity of vision expressed in the Paris Agreement will reshape business investment and risk assessment, particularly in the finance and investment communities. Climate change action is already being discussed differently in board rooms. We may see practical leadership and implementation of climate change policy increasingly shift from government to business. The key is leadership. Governments at the national and subnational level are well advised to embrace the challenge and search for opportunities in the transition. There are always pressures from incumbent industries to dig in the heels, but sticking with the old model when the world is on a trajectory of change is not a good strategy in the long-term. Looking back from 2050, the transition from carbon-intensive to low-carbon systems may look like we now see the historical transitions from manual power to steam engines, from the horse-drawn carriage to cars, and from letters to email: tremendously beneficial and rather obvious.

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References 1. Jackson, R.B. et al. Reaching peak emissions.

5. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook

Nature Climate Change [online] (2015) http://www. nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/

2015 (IEA, Paris, 2015). 6. Fay, M et al. Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future (World Bank Publications,

nclimate2892.html. 2. Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions.

Washington DC, 2015). 7. Denis, A. et al. Pathways to deep decarbonisation

UNFCCC [online] (2015) http://unfccc.int/resource/

in 2050: how Australia can prosper in a low carbon

docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf.

world. ClimateWorks/ANU (2014).

3. Green, F. and N. Stern. China’s changing economy:

8. Teng, F. and F. Jotzo. Reaping the economic benefits

implications for its carbon dioxide emissions.

of decarbonization for China. China & World

Climate Policy (March 2016).

Economy 22(5): 37–54.

4. Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project. Pathways

9. Jotzo, F. and L. Kemp. Australia can cut emissions

(2015) http://awsassets.wwf.org.au/downloads/ fs077_australia_can_cut_emissions_deeply_and_ the_cost_is_low_21apr15_v3.pdf. 10. Edenhofer, O. et al. in Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [online] (2014) http://mitigation2014.org/. 11. Edenhofer, O. et al. Mitigation, Working Group III to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [online] (2014). 12. Fay, M. et al. Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps

to deep decarbonization 2016 report. SDSN–IDDRI

deeply and the cost is low. Centre for Climate

to a Zero-Carbon Future (World Bank Publications,

(2015).

Economics and Policy for WWF-Australia [online]

Washington DC, 2015).

Averting Global Ecological Collapse through Equitable Development? by Roberto De Vogli Humanity is facing an unprecedented ecological crisis. Rapid climate change and unsustainable consumption of natural resources indicate that modern civilization is facing the risk of a future ecological collapse.1 On the basis of predictions made by climate scientists, policy makers proposed that the aim of humanity should be to stop average global temperatures from rising to more than 2°C above the pre-Industrial level.2 Although recent research showed that even this target is not entirely safe, the concerted effort to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions has so far failed, mainly because the political, economic, and social determinants of the ecological crisis have been largely ignored. During the 2014 IARU Sustainability Science Congress, the theme session “Social Equity, Development and The Global Environment” sought to examine how inequities and the current model of economic development impair the resolution of the impending ecological crisis. It also aimed at proposing solutions for a fairer and sustainable world.

The Problems A recent study showed that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves, and over 80 percent of coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 to retain a high probability of respecting the 2°C threshold.2 Not burning such a large percentage of known reserves appears unthinkable given the current socioeconomic and political circumstances. Progress toward sustainability is hampered by multiple factors including proximal causes such as excessive use of fossil fuels and the general reluctance of governments to seriously invest in renewable energies. The root causes of the ecological crisis, however, include the lack of strong international agreements to combat climate change, the current model of development that prioritizes unlimited economic growth and trade liberalization, and the power of the fossil fuel industry to prevent serious regulations and effective policies. Staggering socioeconomic inequities between and within countries are impairing cooperation between nations.

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Widespread disagreement about what is “fair” or “equitable” between different groups of countries blocks progress toward international agreements on climate change.3 Poor nations fear limits to their efforts to grow economically and meet the needs of their own people while some rich countries refuse to cut their own excesses unless developing countries make similar efforts. At the same time, wider economic distances within countries promote status competition, consumerism, and materialistic aspirations resulting in people working longer hours and spending more of their income on luxury goods. These factors are contributing to climate change and a more rapid depletion of natural resources.4 Two even more intractable obstacles to achieving sustainability are the priorities of the current model of development and the political and economic power of transnational corporations (TNCs), particularly the fossil fuel industry. Nafeez Ahmed has argued that current approaches to addressing climate change and energy challenges fail to solve them because they are based

on the global neoliberal paradigm that emphasizes unlimited economic growth and unfettered free markets.5 This paradigm is not compatible with effective environmental regulations. In order to respect the 2°C threshold, wealthy nations need to cut their emissions by about eight to ten percent per year. However, there is no historical evidence that a “free” market society has experienced this rate of change in the past without an economic downturn or a depression.6 Current trade liberalization and deregulation policies, strongly advocated by TNCs, are incompatible with the global effort to avert the ecological crisis. During the negotiations of the Paris Climate Conference, for example, a leaked internal EU document revealed that European governments had instructed their representatives to oppose any discussion of measures to combat climate change that might be a “restriction on international trade.”7 The Solutions A rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the global level is possible. Andrew Simms has argued that phasing out the use of fossil fuels in a few years requires a Global Green New Deal, where heavy investments in renewables will not only drastically reduce the risk of ecological collapse but also produce positive externalities such as a decrease of unemployment that may reduce economic inequities within countries.8 Numerous schemes to reduce economic inequities between countries and tackle the ecological crisis have emerged in recent years. Wealthy nations must lead by example not only by drastically reducing the use of fossil fuels and adopting more sober patterns of natural resource consumption but also by helping poor countries with poverty reduction and environmental technologies. This may contribute to repairing past injustices of imperialism, colonization, and exploitation. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimated that,

in order “to overcome poverty, increase food production to eradicate hunger without degrading land and water resources, and avert the climate change catastrophe,” the total investment needed is about USD$1.9 trillion a year for the next 40 years.9 Revenues to fund such efforts can be found by taxing TNCs (especially the fossil fuel industry) and individuals that are responsible for the largest shares of greenhouse gas emissions. Measures may include a financial transaction tax, the abolition of tax havens, and a billionaire tax that would amount to a total of USD$2 trillion annually.10 Further revenues can be found in a progressive carbon tax, higher royalties rates on oil, gas, and coal extraction, and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies. All measures, together with basic income and new jobs in the low-carbon sector, can result in economic redistribution and a fairer, not just safer, society. An alternative model of economic development prioritizing sustainable well-being, rather than boundless economic growth and unfettered markets, is necessary and urgent. Respecting the 2°C guardrail for managing human-caused climate change may require the temporary adoption of “selective de-growth” strategies that may include heavy taxation of luxuries to reduce wasteful consumption and the use of revenues to support low-carbon activities, mass transit, renewable energy, and local organic agriculture. Stronger regulations, the rolling back of limited liability, and the revocation of corporate charters for industries that violate environmental agreements may also be necessary. Any of these measures, however, are strongly opposed by top TNCs that have enormous economic and political power over governments and international financial institutions. TNCs can even resort to the Investor to State Dispute Settlement arbitration system in free-trade agreements to sue states anytime a government policy reduces the value of their investment. TransCanada Corporation has just launched

a USD$15 billion lawsuit against the U.S. government for rejecting Keystone XL because of its potential impact on efforts to combat climate change.7 Reducing consumption of fossil fuels and converting our energy system to renewables while reducing inequities between and within nations, and redefining the priorities of our model of economic development, requires significant civic action. Nafeez Ahmed has argued that the world is already experiencing a civilizational transition in which the crises of the fossil fuel-centered global system are resulting in civic unrest and the incitement of social movements (e.g., Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street). Whether a massive social movement advocating for an alternative model of development will succeed in re-directing global and national economic policies toward the aim of promoting sustainable well-being is the key question of our time. References 1. Diamond, J. Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Survive (Penguin Books, London, 2005). 2. McGlade, C. and P. Elkins. The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 517 (2015): 187–90. 3. Huntingford, C. and J. Gash. Climate equity for all. Science 309 (2005): 1789. 4. Wilkinson, R. and K. Pickett. The Spirit Level: Why Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better (Allen Lane, London, 2009). 5. Ahmed, N. A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: and How to Save It (Pluto Press, London, 2010). 6. Anderson, K. and A. Bows. Beyond dangerous climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 369 (2011): 20–44. 7. De Vogli, R. and N. Renzetti. The potential impact of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on public health. Epidemiology & Prevention 40 (2016): 2. 8. Simms, A. Canceling the Apocalypse: New Path to Prosperity (Little, Brown and Company, London, 2013). 9. United Nations. World Economic and Social Survey 2011: The Great Green Technological Transformation (United Nations, New York, 2011). 10. Lipow, G. Solving the Climate Crisis through Social Change. Public Investment for Social Prosperity to Cool a Fevered Planet (Praeger, Santa Barbara CA, 2012).

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Anderson, M. (2016). Systemic Solutions from Human Ecology. Solutions 7(3): 84–85. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/systemic-solutions-from-human-ecology/

Reviews Book Review

Systemic Solutions from Human Ecology by Molly Anderson REVIEWING Understanding Human Ecology: A Systems Approach to Sustainability by Robert Dyball and Barry Newell, Routledge, 2015

efore “social-ecological systems” and “sustainability science,” there was human ecology analyzing human–environmental interactions and seeking sustainable solutions to problems at that interface. Had intellectual history unfolded a bit differently, every college and university might have a department of Human Ecology and self-identified human ecologists might be garnering national and international acclaim. But the term is sufficiently vague that it became a grab-bag of all kinds of studies, ranging from home economics to nutrition to urban planning. Yet it remains as the label of choice for an eclectic international group who believes that interdisciplinary approaches spanning humanities as well as social and environmental sciences and incorporating other forms of knowledge (indigenous, traditional, etc.) are essential to coping with the Anthropocene. Understanding Human Ecology: A Systems Approach to Sustainability represents some of the best current thinking of human ecologists and is an outstanding contribution to the field. It incorporates an excellent introduction to systems analysis and the tools it provides to understanding perverse human behavior in the face of wicked problems. It also brings in some of the common flaws in human reasoning and the tension between behavior that benefits the individual,

the collective, and ecosystem functions to demonstrate how we have arrived at a point where we commonly face “six impossible decisions” before we begin the day: acting in ways that we know are augmenting environmental and social degradation because alternatives are not readily available. The book might be called a conceptual approach to solutions, with very practical applications. In that sense, the whole thing is about “solutions” because it introduces the tools and then a conceptual framework for systems analysis of problems with social and ecological repercussions. It begins with a short history of the development of human ecology, then presents a case study of conflicts over land, water, and energy in the Snowy Mountains in southern Australia to introduce themes of complexity, impacts of humans on resource flows, changing expectations with new waves of settlers, and conflicts over regulatory “solutions.” The second part of the book, “Building Shared Understanding,” has clear explanations of common thought patterns, components and behavior of systems, and the importance of consumption rates and distribution. Mathematical formulas and graphs are used appropriately to augment these explanations. The section concludes with a “cultural adaptation template” for mapping the relationships among

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Routledge

human health and well-being, ecosystem quality, cultural paradigms (common assumptions and thought processes), and “state of community,” or the social practices and institutions that drive changes in other parts of the system. Key processes that serve as intervention points in the system, such as planning, learning, and collective activities, and important feedback loops are shown. This template builds on the work of Stephen Boyden, whose relevant work the authors describe. The final section, “Living in the Anthropocene,” uses the cultural

Reviews Book Review adaptation template to depict major transitions in human society. The chapters within this section focus on how societies obtain food and some of the impacts of different patterns such as the adoption of settled agriculture, increasing urbanization, and reliance on imports. These chapters emphasize the importance of overriding paradigms such as ownership and control of the environment, the possibility of limitless growth, and movement toward stewardship of a “full Earth.” I used this book as the primary text (along with Donella Meadows’s

fine primer on systems thinking) for an undergraduate class on Systems Analysis in a college that offers degrees in human ecology. Student reactions were very positive: they appreciated the readability and examples from different parts of the world that Dyball and Newell include. As a systems ecologist by training, I found the template that Dyball and Newell developed to be elegant and flexible enough to encompass a wide range of issues. They add the crucial elements of cultural beliefs and attitudes

and the feedback between these and social practices. Unless we understand and deal with these, we have little hope of intervening in human-generated processes that are destroying communities, public health, and the planet. All in all, this book is one of the clearest introductions to complexity and systems analysis that I have encountered in years of teaching these subjects. I recommend it highly as a textbook and for informative reading about the human ecological approach to problem solving.

Media Reviews See America: A Celebration of the US National Parks Service by Colleen Maney As the United States National Parks Service marks its centennial anniversary, a global group of artists have lent their creative minds to the celebration. In 2014, the Creative Action Network partnered with the National Parks Conservation Association to revive the legacy of the New Deal. From 1938 to 1941, the National Parks Service employed artists through the Works Progress Administration (WPA) to create promotional posters for national park sites. The artists produced 14 original designs before WWII, when the campaign faded against the backdrop of the war. Today, only 40 of the original posters remain in existence. Now, 75 years later, enter the Creative Action Network, a global community of artists and designers that pool their talents for good through crowdsourced campaigns.

The Network’s 2014 partnership with the National Parks Conservation Association sparked the “See America” campaign, inviting artists to reimagine a new collection of posters inspired by the original WPA designs. Artists based around the world contributed to the resulting collection, which features posters celebrating 75 national parks and monuments across all 50 states. Just in time for the National Parks Service’s 100th birthday this year, the campaign has been transformed into a volume published by Chronicle Books entitled, See America. The collection within the book is both a nod to national history and a hallmark of the modern era for the national parks of America. All proceeds from the sale of See America will go to support the artists involved in the campaign and the National Parks Conservation Association. Find the book online at https://creativeaction.network/pages/ see-america-the-book.

Jon Cain / Creative Action Network

Great Smoky Mountains National Park is a United States National Park and UNESCO World Heritage Site straddling the border of North Carolina and Tennessee. This design is featured as the cover image for the See America book.

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Richardson, K., R. Dyball, and W. Steffen. (2016). How Will Future Historians Tell the Story of How We Are Tackling Climate Change Today? Solutions 7(3): 86–93. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/how-will-future-historians-tell-the-story-of-how-we-are-tackling-climate-change-today/

Solutions in History

How Will Future Historians Tell the Story of How We Are Tackling Climate Change Today? by Katherine Richardson, Robert Dyball, and Will Steffen

nvironmental history is the study of how humans have shaped environments in the past, as well as how environments and environmental changes have shaped us, and how people have regulated their management of natural resources. Today, a new chapter in environmental history is being written: a newly globalized society is confronting a global problem of its own making, humaninduced climate change. Using as a starting point that humans are the only “story-telling animal,” environmental historian William Cronon argues that it is not possible for us to consider history only as a chronology of events.1 Instead, we understand these events in the context of a narrative. Indeed, it is core to the business of academic historians to shed new light on how and why past events happened. In other words, they tell new narratives to describe historical events. Cronon also reminds us that a story has a beginning, an execution, and an end. These points in time bracket the events with which the story deals, and help determine its central moral. They are, however, imposed by the narrator on what is in reality an ongoing continuum of interacting processes. Placed at different points in time, alternate readings become possible, and these can generate alternative moral messages. With respect to human-induced climate change, we are still in the execution phase of the story and do not yet know what the ending will be. Nevertheless, we try here to put ourselves in the place of a future historian looking back on our time; to

tell the story of how humanity came to terms with the knowledge that accumulation of its waste (i.e. greenhouse gases) was beginning to have profound effects on its living conditions, and bringing with them potentially dire consequences for humanity’s future well-being. Our purpose is to juxtapose today’s narrative concerning efforts to manage human-induced climate change with the narrative a future historian might use, and in this manner, illustrate that the events of today can be used to develop both negative and positive narratives. Before moving to our future historian however, we first need to examine the story historians tell concerning how past societies have managed their interaction with the surrounding environment.

What Has Come Before For many natural resource management stories, we can use past events to tell stories that actually do have endings. All societies developed formal and informal institutions that regulate collective behavior and practices governing their relationship to environmental resources. Often, settled societies did so in response to the realization that, as their numbers multiplied, their wastes were contaminating key resources and undermining critical life-support services. For example, pollution of drinking water with fecal and other waste products poses a threat to community health, and there was a realization that over-exploitation of game and other resources could potentially threaten community livelihoods. In other words, societies recognized that environmental regulation was in

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their best long-term interests. Likewise, historical societies often recognized transboundary environmental problems, i.e., those emanating from or affecting domains beyond the local. Maintaining clean air and water in one country or community demands that neighboring communities also respect certain restrictions regarding the use of the air and water in their surroundings. Not until humanity’s reach became truly global did there seem to be much reason for concern about planetary environmental problems, such as global climate change.2 Indeed, it is only in the last three decades that there has been widespread attention to human-induced climate change as a global problem demanding a global response. Environmentalism, which emerged before climate change became widely recognized as an important issue, did attempt to introduce a concern for planetary ecosystem health into the global discourse. However, environmentalists’ campaigns have met with mixed success. While some tactical victories have been won, environmentalism still does not appear to be a strategic global priority. Perhaps this is because environmentalists’ calls for wise stewardship of planetary resources have traditionally hinged on our common good. Thus, the environmentalist mantra has been to “save the planet,” when, for most people throughout history and indeed prehistory, “save ourselves” has probably been the more compelling cry, albeit sometimes with a more enlightened view of self-interest. This is a valuable lesson, and one that offers some hope

Solutions in History

United Nations Development Program

Award ceremony recognizing the United Nation Development Program’s contribution to the success of the Montreal Protocol in December 2012, which marked the 25th anniversary of the protocol. www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 87

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Australian Science Media Center

While in its immediate wake in 2009 COP15 was considered a failure, a future historian will likely see COP15 as playing a significant role in the process towards global emissions regulations.

for today’s struggle to avert dangerous climate change. Indeed, humanity is coming to recognize the need for global environmental resource management, and is even engaged with developing and implementing such mechanisms through which this management could occur. We saw this first in 1987 with the adoption of the Montreal Protocol, which limits the emission of ozonedepleting gases, thus protecting humanity from dangerous ultraviolet radiation. The success of the Montreal Protocol belies the difficulty of reaching a similar, binding, comprehensive agreement on cuts to emissions of greenhouse gases. The sources of

greenhouse gases are much more widespread and diffuse than those of ozone-depleting substances. Moreover, growth in carbon emissions is tightly coupled to economic growth, which is tied to prosperity. Decoupling carbon from material prosperity (i.e. energy, food security, etc.) is key to any successful global management of human-induced climate change.

Making Historic Change It is in this light that the importance of the rapid growth of the global renewable energy industry should become apparent.3 Even so, renewables are often regarded as too expensive to become the mainstay

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of civilization, although there are signs a tipping point in this regard may be approaching. Indeed, under the dominant economic paradigm, the opportunity cost of wind, solar, etc. may well be higher compared to fossil fuels. As Costanza and colleagues point out however, economic models can change, depending on what restricts societal development.4 These authors argue that the current mainstream economic model was developed for conditions of low population and seemingly unlimited access to natural resources. Thus, built capital was the limiting factor for growth. Now, however, both humans and built capital are abundant and

Solutions in History it is access to natural resources that potentially limits economic growth. This, in the eyes of Costanza et al. (as well as many others), implies a need for the development of a new or modified economic model with much more focus on environmental externalities. This, indeed, is what the move towards carbon pricing is all about: internalizing the costs of emissions of greenhouse gases. Thus, while our current focus is often on a comparison of contemporary prices of different energy sources, a future historian might instead see the period as the one in which humanity began to shed its reliance on classical economics. Indeed, the historical significance of carbon pricing, while it may be obscured by political debates today, cannot be overestimated. The example of carbon pricing illustrates an important point, namely that key factors driving adaptation and change in human societies change through time. At different times, different beliefs, values, and knowledge sets can be relatively powerful and dominant. Consequently, different institutions can be created or empowered with the intent of converting those dominant ideas into collective action. Through these actions, human well-being and environmental health are affected for better or for worse. Whether societies learn and adapt their behavior as a result of these changes depends in part on how much relative importance or care is placed on human well-being and environmental health (see Figure 1).

From Environment to Diplomacy: The UN Climate Process Countries operating under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meet annually in Conferences of the parties (COP) to discuss possible actions in response to human induced climate change.

s lue a V

y Polic stem Ecosy ein Wellb

Human Wellbeing

Policy Priorities

Dominant Values

Ecosystem Health Adapted from Dyball and Newell

Figure 1. Changes in dominant values drive changing policy priorities through time, with consequent impacts on the health of the environment and human well-being. Under certain conditions, learning and adaptation feedback from these changes can change values and thus policy. Illustrated at the top is an ongoing iterative process. At the bottom is a snapshot in time, as if a section were cut through these processes at the moment indicated by the dotted line in order to evaluate them.5

For some COPs, such as COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, expectations of progress have been particularly high, but have ended with hopes dashed. COP15 was uniformly reported in the media and considered by environmental NGOs to be a failure, with no binding global agreement on the reduction of emissions secured.

However, rather than dwelling on the success or lack thereof of any one COP, our future historian would likely see the COPs as being part of a process, with COP15 representing a significant step towards global emissions regulation for several reasons. Firstly, there was a high and widespread acceptance of the scientific evidence

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Solutions in History Year % Reduction in Relation to 1990 Emissions

for human induced climate change; its causes and risks. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed, with a very high degree of certainty, that humans are causing climate change. Secondly, there was also a political consensus that human-caused climate change should not be allowed to exceed 2oC above pre-industrial temperatures. This amounts to an agreement on the limits of the global resource, i.e., the capacity of the atmosphere to store waste greenhouse gases without jeopardizing civilization. Lastly, at COP15 it was not environmental ministers, but prime ministers and presidents that dominated the participants. The presence of national leaders at Copenhagen signaled that climate change had become more important diplomatically than a simple environmental issue. Indeed, as long as greenhouse gas emissions are directly linked to economic growth through energy use and food production, the establishment of the 2oC limit for human-induced climate change, in effect, transforms any negotiation on emission reductions into a question of how the right to future economic growth should be distributed among countries. Thus, the presence of national leaders at COP15 elevated the dialogue concerning human-induced climate change to the realm of geopolitics, in which the power relationships and balance between countries are at stake. It is no wonder then that no binding international agreement was achieved! Our future historian will likely be impressed by the pace at which countries identified possibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions— primarily by decoupling energy use and emissions— immediately after COP15. Global renewable energy generation has risen dramatically since 2009. Solar is up from 21 GWH in 2009 to

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Figure 2a. Levels of planned or announced pledges for CO2 emission reduction relative to emissions in 1990 for the EU (blue) and USA (red) at negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol, COP 15 and COP21 and the EU 2050 goal. The EU has the long-term reduction goal of 80-95% by 2050. Both endpoints are depicted here.

139 GWH in 2014, an increase of over 660 percent. Wind, coming off a higher base, has doubled from 159 GWH in 2009 to 318 in 2014.3 This is despite difficult financial circumstances in major economies. Individual country pledges in relation to the COP21 in Paris, December 2015 showed a historic rise in ambition: 187 countries, that together accounted for 95 percent of global emissions in 2010, submitted pledges to cut emissions significantly and introduced society-wide plans to achieve these cuts. If they hold their pledges, then it seems possible to maintain climate change to around 3oC, possibly even lower. This is, of course, still not enough to respect the agreed 2oC guardrail, but is still considerably better than the approximately 4oC global temperature increase projected by the IPCC to occur without further action on climate change taking place.6 Figure 2a (EU and USA) and Figure 2b (China), illustrate the recent rise in ambition for the three largest emitters. This change is especially striking in China’s case. However, it is also important to note that in the EU

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pledge made prior to COP21, the 40 percent reduction in emissions with respect to 1990 by 2030 is actually more ambitious than it might immediately appear, because reductions must occur domestically. Previous targets have included clean development mechanisms whereby investment in projects in other countries could be credited towards national emissions reductions.

The Final Chapter is Yet to be Written Humanity does not yet have mechanisms in place that give reason to be confident that global warming can be confined to within 2oC. Nevertheless, at COP 21 politicians reconfirmed—even strengthened —commitment to the 2oC guardrail. Although COP 21 sent a clear signal to the international community concerning the delegates’ preferred societal trajectory vis-à-vis greenhouse gas emissions and human-induced climate change, we—in contrast to our imagined future historian—do not yet know whether the story of humanity’s attempt to manage climate change

Solutions in History GDP – historical

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Figure 2b. Emission reduction pledges for China.7 Because China was originally considered a developing country, it is not possible to use the same scale for all three polities.

will end in success or failure. We have nevertheless chosen to paint a rather optimistic picture here of how future historians might view the events we are living through now. We do so not to encourage complacency. On the contrary, science tells us clearly that if this story is to end with humanity avoiding the unmanageable consequences of climate change, decision makers need to move quickly and resolutely to put in place carbon pricing and other key reforms that decouple greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth forever. It is important, however, and it might even serve to reinforce collective efforts, to put the apparent failure of individual COPs in the kind of perspective history offers. In this way, we can see the world has actually made remarkable progress

in terms of awareness of the problem and its solutions, and commitments to cut emissions. These are not small achievements, even if they are clearly currently insufficient to meet the global challenge of human-induced climate change by themselves. The increasing level of ambition and commitment to managing human-induced climate change does suggest however, that a change of direction is, while not easy, certainly possible. Whether or not the story of human efforts to control and manage the climate change for which it is responsible has a happy ending will likely depend on the speed of human actions against the speed of climate change itself. It is, however, still within humanity’s power to offer future historians the opportunity to tell a positive story and a tale of hope.

References 1. Cronon, W. A Place for Stories: Nature, History, and Narrative. The Journal of American History 78(4) (1992). 2. Rockström, J. et al. Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2) (2009). 3. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century. The First Decade 2004–2014: 10 Years of Renewable Energy Progress. REN21 United Nations Environment Program, Paris (2015). 4. Costanza, R. et al. Development: Time to leave GDP behind. Nature 505(7483) (2014). 5. Dyball, R. and B. Newell. Understanding Human Ecology (Routledge, London, 2015). 6. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Stocker, T.F. et al) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013). 7. Teng, F. and F. Jotzo. Reaping the Economic Benefits of Decarbonization for China. China & World Economy 22(5) (2014): 37–54.

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At COP21, held in Paris in December 2015, politicians reconfirmed global commitment to significantly decreasing emissions. 92 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org

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Benjamin Géminel / COP Paris

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Burgess, N.D. and K. Nowak. (2016). A Case for Conservation on a Human Scale. Solutions 7(3): 94–100. https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/a-case-for-conservation-on-a-human-scale/

On The Ground

A Case for Conservation on a Human Scale by Neil D. Burgess and Katarzyna Nowak

s the American biologist and naturalist E.O. Wilson said, “the worst part of ongoing planetary despoliation is biodiversity loss.”1 The term biodiversity refers to the variety of life on Earth at all its levels, from genes to ecosystems, and the ecological and evolutionary processes that sustain it. Biodiversity includes not only species we consider rare, threatened, or endangered, but every living thing—even organisms we still know little about, such as microbes, fungi, and invertebrates. By most measures, biodiversity loss is accelerating and there is abundant evidence that human use is resulting in an overall reduction of habitats,2,3 species,4-6 and genetic diversity, including agricultural diversity. Evidence of the human ecological footprint extends into evermore remote and southern parts of the globe.7,8 We are two conservation scientists who between us have some 30-plus years working for biodiversity. We’ve spent most of our time in Africa and Europe, more specifically in Tanzania and the United Kingdom. Our work in Tanzania started out conducting surveys of biodiversity and gradually shifted to demonstrating and comparing relative biodiversity values to prioritize the use of limited conservation funds.9–14 We have watched as global biodiversity has been lost to the extent that its decline now exceeds one of the recently defined “planetary limits.”15 This decline is not sustainable if, by that word, we mean maintaining what we have. Right now, we do not even know all that is being lost.1 While around 1.4 million species have been named by scientists, the total could

reach 100 million. The American ecologist Aldo Leopold wrote more than half a century ago, “to keep every cog and wheel is the first precaution of intelligent tinkering.”16 Leopold effectively invokes the Precautionary Principle, which aims to “ensure a higher level of environmental protection through preventative decision-taking in the case of risk.” The Principle has been implemented piecemeal and dismally, causing the onus to demonstrate the value of nature and the costs of excessive developments to still rest on conservationists. Some scholars argue that “sustainable use” and “sustainable development” have drifted too far from true “sustainability.”17,18 Certainly, the reality is that unsustainable use is rising and biodiversity is in free fall, despite a host of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) incorporating sustainable use.2,19 We wonder if these global agreements have not missed opportunities to reconnect people with the natural world, which is arguably the source of the most lasting and effective conservation solutions. Do MEAs and international instruments generate a sense of the impact that biodiversity loss has on societies? By emphasizing economic values, do we risk undermining people’s—including politicians’—sense of a moral duty to act? Here, we confront the question of what we call “biodiversity

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sustainability,” using the UK and Tanzania as case studies. By biodiversity sustainability we mean maintenance and use of biodiversity in ways that see it persist indefinitely. Using our experience, we then reflect on and weigh examples of global and local solutions. We propose that while MEAs may provide a relevant framework, it is local interpretation and action that define the fate of biodiversity.

Changes and Challenges— North and South Twenty-five years ago, Tanzania was in the middle of the “lost decade” of African development; beset with debts and reeling from the trauma of two oil shocks as well as the collapse of its fragile post-independence socialist system. The economy was in disarray, infrastructure was poor, and rampant poaching of elephants had led to an international ivory trade ban. The population was under 25 million, and charcoal fueled cities while rural areas used wood fuel. Life was tough, but the country had retained most of its biodiversity, including many thousands of plants and birds as well as an abundance of large mammals, although rhinoceroses were hugely reduced and elephants had suffered badly from poaching in the 1970s and 80s. Important areas for conservation were identified, but there was little discussion of how biodiversity could be part of national development even though Julius Nyerere, the first independent president, stipulated it in 1961. Tanzania’s population is now 50 million and still growing rapidly. The economy remains largely based on natural resources, but infrastructure

On The Ground

Carol J. Pierce Colfer / CIFOR

Children walk past the Amani Nature Reserve headquarters in Tanzania on their way to school.

has improved. Towns in Tanzania are still fueled by charcoal and rural areas by firewood. Industrial agriculture, oil and gas exploration, and mining are all rapidly expanding at the expense of natural habitats. The country is in the middle of a second, possibly graver wave of elephant poaching, due in part to Chinese-led development promoting links between Tanzanian poachers and Chinese ivory traffickers. The resource base of forests, wildlife, and fisheries is in decline. There is now much less foreign money for conservation research and action, and the bulk of what remains appears to increasingly come from philanthropists and a handful of countries. In Tanzania, despite poor funding and capacity, corruption, and rural poverty, notable conservation gains have been achieved both nationally

and locally. The Tanzanian protected area estate covers almost 50 percent of the country (compared with under 10 percent in the UK). Many reserves are under intense pressure, but reservation backed by laws and enforcement has largely worked to safeguard overall biodiversity and ecosystem services. Protected areas may not be fashionable in the era of market-based solutions, but they generally work. Even for well-publicized conservation crises in Tanzania around elephants and black rhinoceros, the remaining populations of the species are in the best managed protected areas in the country. Twenty-five years ago, the countryside in the UK was the product of thousands of years of human use. All large mammals had been extirpated. Even deer and birds of prey were

hugely reduced in abundance and range. Most of the country was under industrial agriculture and the human population density of the southern UK was among the highest on Earth. However, in the 1980s there was a swing towards habitat restoration and some recovery of heavily exploited species, such as the marsh harrier and golden eagle, had been achieved. Biodiversity fates were divided—species in woodlands and wetlands were doing well, while in farmlands they were doing badly. Today in the UK, industrial agriculture still dominates the landscape. The population has reached 64 million, and the 2008 global financial crisis has resulted in reduced public spending on conservation. Farmland biodiversity continues to suffer, while woodlands and wetlands continue to recover.

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On The Ground

Julian Walker

Lodmoor Nature Reserve, outside of Weymouth in southern England, is managed by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and has become an important habitat for wintering birds.

Some formerly persecuted species (e.g. red kites and buzzards) have expanded and climate change has brought in new species, such as little and cattle egrets, which increase rapidly. Ecosystem services are in mainstream conversations and are experimentally incorporated into national accounting. However, attempts to undermine the Birds and Habitats Directives and remove layers of green planning and legislative safeguards are gaining the upper hand in the UK and elsewhere in the European Union. Even efforts to minimize climate change through clean energy subsidies take a back

seat, as the economic imperative takes precedence and debts created by non-green sectors are paid by the environment. Arguably, the UK and Tanzania are microcosms of the world at large where conservation has shifted from an ecocentric to an anthropocentric perspective. The intrinsic value of nonhumans is now being pitted against mankind’s developmental rights in both countries. The natural environment is declining as the number of people, including the poor, is rising. Reconciling these issues poses an exceptional challenge.

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The Shifting “Sustainability” Agenda Amid these changes, many governments and NGOs experiment with new conservation thinking, including collaboration with developers, corporations, fishers, and farmers. Market-based policy strategies, such as ecolabeling, which aims to make clear the environmental impacts of production, are now deployed widely. The success of conservation endeavors is now increasingly wed to the development agenda and great effort is put into identifying and communicating biodiversity’s economic and social benefits.

On The Ground

Dan Davison

A grey heron at the Rainham Marshes in Essex. Once a live munition firing range, the marshes fell into disuse as an illegal dump before the RSPB recovered the area, which is now an important bird habitat.

Some conservation scientists argue for a return to a focus on the intrinsic value of nature,20 while others embrace the economic and social benefits of biodiversity as levers for conservation.21 It may be that both approaches are valid and an ecological pragmatist would argue for “whatever works” in a global ecological crisis. Still others question the fundamental basis of conservation and claim conservation keeps people impoverished,22 despite evidence to the contrary.23 In the global policy sphere, the United Nations has embedded sustainable use within the Sustainable Development Goals, which have replaced the Millennium Development Goals and run until

2030. The goals further link conservation with development and will likely define the next 15 years of conservation efforts. There are many potential benefits to this linkage but there are also risks. For example, much of Tanzania’s natural heritage is in its amphibians, reptiles, invertebrates, and small mammals—most of which are unlikely to prove useful to humans. Where do these species sit in such a utilitarian worldview? And what about intelligent and opportunistic large mammals such as great apes and elephants that are increasingly perceived as threats to human food security because they eat human food crops? Will species with which we compete for space be eliminated?

An Abundance of Global Targets and Instruments The previously mentioned MEAs are supported by most countries and effectively seek to mainstream biodiversity in decision-making at all levels. While important, this mainstreaming is partly premised on the economic value of biodiversity, raising the risk it will be too easily traded off to the detriment of many species, albeit inadvertently. The economic valuation approach is becoming central, even dominant, in conservation deliberations. While global decisions that value biodiversity economically are certainly better than ones that do not, such market-oriented global solutions may also have become detached from the local, human scale

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On The Ground

Stig Nygaard

A red-headed agama in Shinyanga, Tanzania. Much of Tanzania’s natural heritage is in its amphibians, reptiles, invertebrates, and small mammals.

where most decisions are actually made day-to-day.24 Our own experiences suggest that an emphasis on the global, moreover, while helpful and important, can inadvertently push out vital local approaches.25 We do not dispute, however, that there is much to be gained from the MEAs, along with various linked assessments, such as the Global Biodiversity Outlook, Global Environment Outlook, global assessments under the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, and the UNFCCC’s work on forest protection. They play significant roles in defining national strategies and legislation. For example, the CBD-defined Aichi Target 11 is promoting a major expansion of protected areas worldwide. Marine protected areas in the UK and Tanzania have

been established and expanded as a direct result of government participation in the CBD. A fundamental global challenge lies in overcoming the growing disconnect between humans and their natural environment, and, in so doing, implementing top-down agendas effectively at the grassroots level.

Reconnecting People Through Local Solutions In contrast to the MEAs, which are somewhat abstracted from most people’s lives, community-based conservation is more local, not only in terms of conservation but also in generating experiences that reconnect people with nature, inculculating a sense of duty to ecosystems and species, and encouraging people’s local adaptation to rapid environmental change.

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Tanzania has established a network of community-based conservation areas covering over 10 percent of the country. As part of a community-based forest management framework, timber certification schemes under the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) have been successfully implemented in a number of places yielding economic, social, and biodiversity benefits. One example is the community of Kilwa, where an FSC scheme has helped ensure that timber production is within sustainable limits resulting in effective conservation of species such as the Zanzibar galago, Galago zanzibaricus, and an endemic flame tree, Erythrina schliebenii, once feared extinct but now also growing in the President’s residence in Dar es Salaam.26 This community-based forestry connects local people to the survival of the forests and their dependent species.

On The Ground Enduring partnerships between small local NGOs (e.g. the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group) and communities are also helping nurture biodiversity and community development in rural Tanzania. The West Usambara Forest Conservation Project has slowed deforestation since 2000, saving five endemic vertebrate species, protecting water catchment sources for 12 communities, planting half a million native trees, and providing fuel-efficient stoves. Efforts to cultivate public involvement, interest, stewardship, and biophilia—an ingrained affinity for the natural world—through citizen science have become more numerous in both the North and South.27-28 In Tanzania, people are involved in an ongoing effort to produce a detailed atlas of bird distribution and seasonality.29 In the UK, there has been success in engaging citizens in conservation through schemes like the Big Garden Birdwatch, managed by the UK’s Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB). With over a million members, the RSPB campaigns for conservation and manages a nationwide network of reserves—it’s one of the UK’s most powerful lobbies. Through work in their nature reserves, and in the wider countryside with the support of the general population and landowners, notable population declines of some of the most iconic British birds have been reversed. Recently, the RSPB joined a call for a publicly funded nature-for-health plan, built on and adding to a strong body of evidence on the importance of natural areas to good human health and well-being. This local-scale connection of nature—fostered by organizations like the RSPB—has facilitated the creation of wetlands and forest areas on the margins of towns across the country—with positive benefits for people and biodiversity.

Opportunities for exchange of local experiences are also important: by partnering UK volunteers with Tanzanian farmers, the organization Raleigh International helps construct beehive fencing in Tanzanian farms adjacent to Udzungwa Mountains National Park, where people have been adversely affected by elephant crop depredation. There are examples of similar schemes all over the world, often dramatically altering the courses of the lives who participate. Town-dwelling people in Tanzania also need to reconnect to the nature in their own country. Many Tanzanians’ lives have become entirely urban, and the remote areas of their own country, and the wildlife that lives there, is perceived as both dangerous and part of a life that has been left behind. Important work is being done in Tanzania, and many other developing countries to bring young people into nature and show them the natural and outside world, through school visits to wildlife areas in hired coaches and walking trips to mountains. The aim is to develop interest, appreciation, concern, and care for nature. However, these efforts remain confined to the urban middle classes and private school-educated children, and there are many who do not get such opportunities. Of course, participation and capacity building can also happen at larger scales and between countries that share more than the UK and Tanzania. The United Nations Office for South–South Cooperation encourages peer-to-peer learning of best environmental practices, and the United Nations Environment Programme has just launched MyUNEA.org, an interactive web platform intended to facilitate citizen engagement in global environmental governance. We suspect, however, that to partake in such large global processes, citizens must

first be primed through participating in conservation at more local scales. These reflections on our experiences in Tanzania and the UK illustrate that neither the protected area “fortress,” nor the “community” model, can be a panacea. We also fear that the conservation agenda has swung too far towards market-based or development-focused, anthropocentric approaches. Far from being “practical,” these divert attention—and donor funding—from local pluralistic approaches that yield results at neighborhood levels. MEAs, while vital in providing a global framework for action, risk overshadowing citizen resolve, interest, and action. We believe that ultimately, saving biodiversity will be borne out of local stewardship achieved via positive partnerships among people and the nurturing of homegrown biophilia.30,31 In other words, conservation on a human scale, but within a global to national framework, containing both ethical and human self-interest elements. This is our greatest hope to save the natural world we inherited when we emerged onto the African plains millions of years ago. References 1. Wilson, E.O. in The Biophilia Hypothesis (eds Kellert, S.R. and E.O. Wilson) (Island Press, Washington DC, 1993). 2. Tittensor, D.P. et al. A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets. Science 346 (2014): 241–4. 3. Hansen, M.C. et al. High-resolution global maps of st

21 -century forest cover change. Science 342 (2013) 850–3. 4. Dirzo, R. et al. Defaunation in the Anthropocene. Science 345 (2014): 401–6. 5. Ceballos, G. et al. Accelerated modern human— induced species losses: entering the sixth mass extinction. Sciences Advances 1 (2015): 1–5. 6. Ripple, W.J. et al. Collapse of the world’s largest herbivores. Science Advances 1, e1400103 (2015). 7. Geldmann, J., L.N. Joppa, and N.D. Burgess. Mapping change in human pressure globally on land and within protected areas. Conservation Biology 28 (2014): 1604–16.

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Raleigh International – Tanzania

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18. Ehrlich, P.R., P.M. Kareiva, and G.C. Daily. Securing natural capital and expanding equity to rescale civilization. Nature 486 (2012): 68–73. 19. Leadley, P.W. et al. Progress towards the Aichi

evidence from certified community-based forest management in Kilwa District, Tanzania.

Convention on Biological Diversity [online] (2010) http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/. 20. Miller, B., M.E. Soulé, and J. Terborgh. ‘New Conservation’ or surrender to development? Animal Conservation 17 (2014): 509–15. 21. Kareiva, P. New conservation: setting the record

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International Forestry Review 17 (2015): 182194. 27. Danielsen, F. et al. A multicountry assessment of tropical resource monitoring by local communities. BioScience 64 (2014): 236–51. 28. Dickinson, J.L. et al. The current state of citizen science as a tool for ecological research and public engagement. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 10 (2012): 291–7. 29. Tanzania Bird Atlas [online] (2016) http:// tanzaniabirdatlas.com/. 30. Mutanga, C.N., S. Vengesayi, N. Muboko, and E. Gandiwa. Towards harmonious conservation relationships: a framework for understanding

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EARTHACTION

Gund Institute

for Ecological

Economics

University of Vermont

The Alliance for Appalachia

National Council for Science and the Environment Improving the scientific basis for environmental decisionmaking

Associated Socie<es International Society for Ecological Economics

Malisa Souvannarath / Creative Action Network

A poster designed for the â&#x20AC;&#x153;See Americaâ&#x20AC;? campaign highlighting the Vermillion Cliffs National Monument in Arizona. Ahead of the centennial anniversary of the National Parks Service, the Creative Action Network partnered with the National Parks Conservation Association to launch the campaign, resulting in a collection of designs inspired by 1930s posters promoting national parks in the United States. The resulting designs have been gathered in a volume titled See America. See page 85 for the full story.