Russian Plan to Dig Biggest Zimbabwe Platinum Mine

Russian Plan to Dig Biggest Zimbabwe Platinum Mine Advances

Aproject that aims to develop Zimbabwe’s biggest platinum mine has cleared a significant hurdle, with the African Export-Import Bank completing a due diligence study allowing it to proceed with a $500 million syndicated funding program. While some work has started on the mine, with $100 million spent to date including exploration costs, a significant amount of investment will now be needed if Great Dyke Investments, owned by Russia’s Vi Holding and Zimbabwean investors, is to complete the $2 billion project. “The project funding structure envisages participation of various types of equity investors as well as lenders,” Alex Ivanov, GDI’s chief executive officer, said in response to emailed questions. “The specific stake to be acquired by potential investors would largely depend on their overall appetite for the project.” Ivanov confirmed the completion of the due diligence program and said he expects the funding to be in place by year end. Humphrey Nwogo, Afreximbank’s southern African chief operating officer declined to comment, citing client confidentiality. The so-called Darwendale project, which lies 65 kilometers (40 miles) from the capital Harare, is central to the Zimbabwean government’s plans to revive its stagnant economy. The country has the world’s thirdlargest platinum reserves after South Africa and Russia Still, the country is struggling to attract foreign investment. It’s unable to pay its debt to multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and has been criticized by potential lenders for its poor economic management and human rights abuses. Even so, the activity at the mine site is a rare sign of potential investment in a country that sees its currency collapse and inflation surge to more than 700%. On a recent visit some workers were seen drilling for ore samples while others constructed roads needed for earthmoving equipment. Training of crews to operate that equipment was also taking place. Commissioning of the mine could begin in 2023 if funding is forthcoming, Ivanov said. When complete it is expected to produce 860,000 ounces of platinum group metals and gold a year. If successful, GDI will join South African companies Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Anglo American Platinum Ltd. in producing the precious metal in the company. Karo Mining Holdings Ltd., a Cypriot company, is also planning to develop a large platinum mine in Zimbabwe. Platinum, along with gold and diamonds, is a key source of foreign exchange for Zimbabwe. By Godfrey Marawanyika

Tanzania opposition turns to ICC for probe into rights violation, electoral misconduct

The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, has confirmed receipt of two formal letters alleging human rights violations by the Tanzania government in the wake of the October 28 election and its aftermath. The Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACTWazalendo), one of the main opposition parties and Maria Sarungi Tsehai, an independent human rights activist, have separately written to the court, requesting an official ICC inquiry into their claims of atrocities committed against Tanzanian citizens in opposition and those who are disputing the election’s conduct and results. The ICC prosecutor’s office said although the court was by law ‘’duty-bound’’ to protect the confidentiality of information received on alleged crimes, “in this instance we can confirm we have received the communications as the senders have made that fact public.” THE ROME STATUTE “We analyse material submitted, as appropriate, in accordance with the Rome Statute which established the court and with full independence and impartiality,” the office said. The first step would be to assess whether the communication concerns “matters that are manifestly outside the jurisdiction of the court. As soon as we reach a decision on the appropriate next step, we inform the sender and provide reasons for our decision,” it added. ACT-Wazalendo leader Zitto Kabwe told the media on November 8 that the party had already submitted evidence to the ICC, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. “We have also written to the Commonwealth and the AU asking them to investigate the October 28 elections and oversee the holding of new elections. We refuse to recognise this election and will continue to protest peacefully for a return of democracy,” Mr Kabwe said. Ms Tsehai, the director of the independent Kwanza Online TV station and founder of the #ChangeTanzania social movement, tweeted on November 9 that she had also canvassed the ICC, though she was not available for

comment on the content of her letter by the time of going to press.

“I used my skills, training as a journalist to fulfil my duty and submit to the ICC evidence of crimes against humanity in Tanzania,” she tweeted.

At least two prominent members of the main opposition

Chadema party, one being its presidential candidate

Tundu Lissu, have fled Tanzania over the past week, citing persecution by state authorities and threats to their lives, allegations denied by government spokesperson

Hassan Abbasi as unsubstantiated.

POLITICAL ASYLUM

“Those opposition leaders who are running away on the pretext of having had their lives threatened should tell us who threatened them, when and where. It is those same leaders who just completed 60 days of election campaigning during which they were given non-stop state security and we heard no complaints about that.

Now after losing they start complaining about being threatened,” Dr Hassan Abbasi said.

Mr Lissu left for Belgium aboard an Ethiopian Airlines

flight last month after a week holed up at the German embassy in Dar es Salaam, while Chadema’s longtime Arusha Urban

Kenya’s Judiciary said it will host a three-day pan-African conference for chief justices in December on the role of courts in combating climate change in the continent.

The Dec. 1-3 conference, whose theme is Greening Judiciary 2020, is a continent-wide initiative that focuses on building the capacity of judges to apply and enforce environmental laws and to promote the rule of law in environmental matters.

“The judiciary leaders will also discuss constraints that hinder effective adjudication of climate change claims,” the

Judiciary said in a statement issued in Nairobi. legislator Godbless Lema has been granted political asylum in Kenya with his family. Both cited security threats for leaving. Mr Lema is one of several Chadema opposition heavyweights who lost their parliamentary seats to CCM newcomers. Another Chadema former MP, Lazaro Nyalandu (Singida North), was also reported to have tried to flee to Kenya but was denied exit by immigration officials at the Namanga border post for lacking proper travel documentation. Dr Abbasi said he was not worried by negative perceptions being created by the action of fleeing opposition leaders. “The international community is sensible and doesn’t just believe any Tom, Dick and Harry’s claims for asylum on grounds of persecution. But that is their prerogative. Most of them still respect the 1951 Refugee Convention, Article 1 which offers clear definition who deserves to be a refugee,” he added.

Kenya to host pan-African conference of chief justices on climate change

By Bob Karashani It said the symposium, which will be held in Nairobi, targets chief justices, senior judges, judicial educators, heads of education institutions, practitioners and experts from the continent. “Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the delegates will have the option of attending physically or virtually,” the Judiciary said. Kenyan Chief Justice David Maraga will host a special session that will interrogate and provide guidance on how judiciaries and other key actors should promote climate-change-related adjudication in Africa, focusing on collaboration between the three arms of government. According to the United Nations, climate change is one of the most pressing problems in Africa that pose serious health and economic challenges. The region is warming faster than the global average, with projections of a rise of 34 degrees Celsius this century and climatesensitive diseases such as cholera, meningitis, malaria and Rift Valley fever likely to spread faster. The continent is severely affected by climate change as most African economies rely heavily on climate-sensitive economic sectors that are exposed to climate variability, droughts and floods.

OBI EFEIZOMOR II OF OWA KINGDOM: THE MODERNIST

His Highness, Obi of Owa Kingdom, Dr. Emmanuel Efeizomor was born on the 10th day of March 1938. At his early age he surmounted all odds, impediments, difficulties and obstacles to attain great heights. The postcolonial era coincides almost precisely with his ascension to the ancient throne of Owa Kingdom as the 17th Obi of Owa on the 6th day of September 1959. He studied in Sapele, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Britain and United States of America (USA). His exposure and experience equipped him with a clear vision and mission to transform Owa into a kingdom of civilized people and modernized structure. As a result of his wealth of knowledge acquired through aggressive reading and learning, Obi (Dr.) Efeizomor II (JP) OON put in place a formidable administrative structure that attracts followership. He has the kind of character that civilizations have sought in their good rulers. He endeared himself to very many well-meaning people because he works diligently at whatever assignment he is entrusted. His total commitment to the cause of his people, his determination and perseverance to succeed, his democratic leadership style, his advocacy for gender equality, and his intellectual prowess and utilization of the ball pen to earn an enviable living are worthy of emulation. Obi (Dr.) Efeizomor II is seen as a monarch of towering stature. He is one of the most accomplished traditional rulers in Nigeria. His achievement during the past sixty years in office is a testimony of his ability to adapt to ever changing social, economic and political situations. He is an icon of compassionate fatherhood whose values would continue to be a good reference point long after his reign. His achievement covers the areas of educational development of himself and his subjects, mobilization of Owa Communities for self-help and Community Development, and active support for government to develop Owa kingdom. Obi (Dr.) Efeizomor II formed, revived and mobilized several community organizations of Ndiowa. Notable among these are Owa Patriotic Union, Owa development committee, Owa Youths Association and BojiBoji Owa Community Development Committee among others. He put forward a developmental philosophy of “Heaven helps those that help themselves” By his self help approach many earth roads and markets were built and expanded. He ensured that educational facilities are made available in his domain. Thus in collaboration with the Christian Missions and government; the following Secondary Schools were founded. i. Ika Grammar School, Boji-Boji Owa in 1960 ii. Owa Grammar School, Owa-Oyibu in 1979 iii. Owa-Alero Secondary / Commercial School, Owa-Alero in 1979 iv. Owanta Grammar School, Owanta in 1980 v. Owa-Alizomor Grammar School, Owa-Alizomor in 1980 Right from the time of his coronation in 1959, successive governments and other well-meaning organizations have never failed to acknowledge Obi (Dr.) E. O. Efeizomor’s immense contributions towards the peace, unity and development of Owa kingdom and beyond. He was a member, Western Regional House of Chiefs 1960 to 1963, member Mid-west Region leaders of thought during the civil war, member Delta State Government delegation to several Northern States of Nigeria from 1971 to date, member old Bendel State Traditional Rulers Council 1967 to 1991; Director, Nigeria Cocoa Board 1979, Managing Director Toprest (Nigeria) Limited, Insurance Brokers and firm of Building Contractor 1976, member Governing Council, Institute of Journalism, Benin City 1988 to 1990, member Delta State Traditional Ruler’s Council, Representative on WAEC State committee 1996 to 2004 and member, Committee on

misuse of title, Delta State 2000 to 2006 among others. Obi Leaders Council of Nigeria 2001 to date, Merit Award for (Dr.) Efeizomor II was Chairman Ika and Asaba Divisional Examination Ethics by Ministry of Education of Delta State Income Tax Review tribunal 1961, Chairman panel on ways 2004, Millennium Excellence Award by front line news media of improving / increasing government Tax collection in Ika Lagos as the most worthy traditional Ruler for the year 2003, in Division; Chairman Ika Divisional Education Board 1973 to 1975, Chairman National Freedom from Hunger campaign Bendel State 1974 to 1976, Chairman State Advisory Committee on Education for citizenship 1977, Chairman Land use Allocation Advisory committee in Ika Local Government Area; Chairman Police Community Relations Committee 1985, Chairman Zonal Police Public Relation Committee, Ika, Ndokwa, Aniocha and Osimili Local Government Areas 1987 to 1992; Chairman EPI, ORT implementation committee Ika Local Government area 1987, Chairman Ika MAMSER implementation committee 1987 to 1992, Chairman Committee on land Dispute in Gbariagolor, Alidinma Scheme 1977 and Vice Chairman Presidential Panel on Warri Crisis 2003 among others. Other awards and positions held by Obi (Dr.) Efeizomor II include Grand Patron of Owa Patriotic Union 1959 to date, Patron of Bendel The Voice Publisher, Pastor Elvis Iruh during his visit to His Royal Majesty, Obi of Owa at his palace in Owa-Oyibu, Delta State. East Cultural Association 1988, patron Izu Ibadan 1994; National Patron, National Traders and Market recognition of his contributions to the social-economic development of Nigeria 2004. The Voice Achievers Award in the Diaspora recognized him for his traditional leadership in Africa in 2016. Obi (Dr.) Efeizomor II was listed in Africa year Book “Who is Who” in 1977. In Delta State, His Majesty, Obi (Dr.) Efeizomor II was the immediate past Chairman of Delta State Interim Advisory Committee of Traditional Rulers (2002-2006). He is presently the chairman of Delta state traditional rulers council. 61 years on the throne and the Obi is not ready to slow down yet, he continues to watch over his community and ensure that the right development gets to them. Congratulations to His Royal Umunna Cultural Association of Nigeria Jos Plateau 1989, Efeizomor and wishing him long life in Jesus Christ name. Grand patron, English and Literary Students Association, Edo Amen State University (now Ambrose Ali University Ekpoma 1990 Contribution by Solomon Omojie-Mgbejume to 2003; Grand Patron, the Institute of Farmers of Nigeria Ikaworld 1994; Life Patron, Ika Media Practitioners Association of (Source: Owa Kingdom) Nigeria (MPAN); Fellow, the Institute of Farmers of Nigeria Photo Credit: Elvis Ndubuisi Iruh Majesty, Obi Dr. Solomon

Nigeria threatens CNN with sanctions but provides no evidence Lekki toll gate investigation is inaccurate. A Nigerian minister lashed out against CNN saying the network should be sanctioned over its investigation, which uncovered evidence that the Nigerian army and police opened fire on unarmed protesters on October 20 2020. CNN’s investigation focused on a demonstration against police brutality, led by the largely peaceful “#EndSARS” movement but turned violence with the shooting at Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos, Nigeria. Until the time of this report, the Nigerian government continued to deny their role and involvement. Even the Minister for Information and Culture Lai Mohammed last month dismissed the CNN investigation as “fake news” and “misinformation,” repeatedly denying the military used live rounds against protesters. “Like everyone else, I watched the CNN report. I must tell you that it reinforces the disinformation that is going around, and it is blatantly irresponsible and a poor piece of journalistic work by a reputable international news organization,” he told reporters at a press conference in Abuja, in the most significant federal government response so far to the October 20 violence. “This is very serious and CNN should be sanctioned for that,” he said. CNN stands by its investigation, a company spokesperson said. “Our reporting was carefully and meticulously researched, and we stand by it,” the spokesperson said via email. The report was based on testimony from dozens of witnesses, and photos and video obtained and geolocated by CNN. It painted a picture of how members of the Nigerian army and the police shot at the crowd, killing at least one person and wounding dozens more. CNN verified photos and videos acquired from multiple eyewitnesses and protesters using timestamps and other data from the video files. Video footage shows soldiers who appear to be shooting in the direction of protesters. And accounts from eyewitnesses established that after the army withdrew, a second round of shooting happened later that night or early hours of the morning. Prior to publishing the report, CNN tried multiple times to elicit comment from the Nigerian army and police. A Lagos State police spokesman declined to comment because of an ongoing investigation. While a statement from the Lagos State government said that there would be no comment while a judicial tribunal was underway. According to Lai Mohammed, the National Economic Council (NEC) directed the “immediate establishment” of a state-based

Nigerian army admits soldiers deployed at October 20 Lekki toll gate protests were given both live and blank bullets, despite previous denials Despite the denial by the Federal Minister of information, the Nigerian army admitted to the panel of inquiry that soldiers were given both live and blank bullets when they were deployed to protests at Lekki toll gate on October 20. The admission seems to confirm a key finding of a CNN investigation into the shooting. “The soldiers were both given live and blank bullets. In this particular case, we saw that these protests had been infiltrated by some hoodlums,” Brig. Gen. Ahmed Taiwo said in his testimony to the Lagos Judicial panel of inquiry into the incident. “You had peaceful protesters no doubt. But there were also hoodlums who sought to take advantage. That is why they were armed (with) blank bullets in addition to the live (bullets) they were carrying.” The question would be how do you differentiate both groups in the dark of the night? judicial panel of inquiry on October 15 before the Lekki toll gate incident, but after protests against violence had begun - to investigate complaints of police brutality and extrajudicial killings. Eyewitnesses have since told CNN that the government’s comments are “lies,” making them feel as though they had “hallucinated the whole event.” “Haven’t they hurt us enough? I still close my eyes and see the blood and hear the screams,” another eyewitness said. During the press conference, Mohammed said the federal government continues to be “very satisfied” with the role played by security agencies especially the military and police throughout the protests. Report by CNN’s Stephanie Busari, Nima Elbagir,

Nigerian army admits soldiers deployed at October 20 Lekki toll gate protests were given both live and blank bullets

Gianluca Mezzofiore and Katie Polglase. This is the first time the Nigerian army has admitted having live rounds at the Lekki toll gate. The army statement also contradicts previous statements about the incident including from Taiwo himself who told the judicial panel previously that the soldiers were firing in the air and firing blank ammunition. In the aftermath of the shooting, the army denied any involvement, describing reports of the incident as “fake news,” before backtracking and saying that soldiers were present but fired their weapons in the air and used blanks, not live rounds. The CNN investigation included evidence that bullet casings from the scene matched those used by the Nigerian army when shooting live rounds, according to current and former Nigerian military officials. Two ballistics experts also confirmed with CNN that the shape of the bullet casings indicate they used live rounds, which contradicts the army’s previous claim they fired blanks. CNN’s report was based on testimony from dozens of witnesses, and photos and video obtained by CNN.

Continued on Page 66

The Nigerian army did not respond to numerous requests for comment prior to the broadcast and publication of CNN’s story. The police would not comment to CNN, but did deny ever shooting at protesters in a tweet. The admission by the Nigeria Army that live rounds were deployed is yet another in a series of constantly changing narratives as to what happened on October 20 at Lekki toll gate, where protesters had gathered to demonstrate against police brutality. A US State Department spokesperson told CNN that they were “closely following the Government of Nigeria’s response” to the events at Lekki Toll Gate and said, “We urge that the investigation be thorough, impartial, and appropriately transparent and that perpetrators be held accountable.” Addressing reporters, Lai Mohammed insisted that “the military did not shoot at the protesters at the toll gate” but fired blank ammunitions into the air, blaming looters for the violence which broke out on the night of October 20. “Six soldiers and 37 policemen were killed all over the country during the crisis,” Mohammed said. “CNN relied heavily on unreliable and possibly doctored videos as well as information sources from questionable sources to reach these conclusions,” he continued. He did not provide any evidence the videos were doctored. While the Minister for Information and Culture asserted that “not a single family” has reported the death of relatives or missing persons during the protest on October 20, the Chief Coroner of Lagos State has since issued a public call for all those who have “lost loved ones between 19 -- 27 October 2020” to come forward and provide evidence which could assist in the “identification exercise.” During his press briefing, the Minister denied reports of fatalities at the protest. “As I said earlier, what started as a peaceful protest against police brutality quickly degenerated into incredible violence despite an immediate response to the demands by the government,” he said. “While we await the Judicial Panel in Lagos to unravel what transpired at the Lekki toll gate, what we can say, based on testimonies available in the public space, is that the world may have just witnessed, for the very first time ever, a massacre without bodies,” he added. By the time of this report, at least two persons were still missing according to their families; they have not been seen or heard from since the night of October 20.

On November 14, 2020 at the AGM of NIDOE the following were elected NIDO Europe continental officers: 1) Chairman - Dr. Bashir Olalekan Obasekola 2) Vice Chairman - Mr. Issa Abdullahi 3) General- Secretary - Barr. (Mrs.) Georgian Opara 4) PRO/Deputy General-Secretary - Mr. Fidel .O. Wilson 5) Finance Officer - Mr. Adedotun Adegbesan 6) Treasurer - Mr. Rex Essenowo 7) Welfare & Social Events Officer - Mr. Godson Azu 8) Liaison Officer (EU & other related Agencies) - Dr. (Mrs.) Monica Emmanuel 9) IT Officer - Mrs. Laura Ikeobi 10) Officer without Portfolio 1 - Mr. Christopher Okuonghae 11) Officer without Portfolio 2 - Mr. Adeyemi Aderemi

We thank the former Chairman, Hon. Kenneth Gbandi and all the other former officers for their services and wish them all the best in their future endeavours

Face masks become compulsory and testing open to those without symptoms in Holland

Face masks become compulsory in all indoor public places in the Netherlands from Tuesday, and the measures will be valid for three months at least. The rules apply to everyone over the age of 13 and those caught without a face mask face a fine of €95. Medical masks remain reserved for healthcare workers but people should ensure the masks they wear cover both nose and mouth. ‘By choice, use a mask bought from a pharmacy or supermarket,’ the justice ministry instructions state. Scarfs and plastic shields are not considered to be acceptable. In addition, from Tuesday, people who are alerted via the CoronaMelder app or a health official that they have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for coronavirus will be able to get a test without having symptoms. Public spaces Face masks have to be worn in all public indoor spaces, such as shops, museums, petrol stations, restaurants and bars (if open), theatres, cinemas and concert halls. Once people are seated at their table in the restaurant or in the theatre auditorium they can take the mask off but if they go to the toilet or leave it has to go back on. Places of worship, such as churches, temples, synagogues and mosques, are exempt from the rule. Face masks were already compulsory on public transport but will now have to be worn inside railway station buildings and at airports as well. Schools and universities Students, teachers and support staff will all have to wear a face mask when moving around the school building. The mask can come off during classes when everyone is seated but teachers who talk while walking around the classroom will have to wear one. Face masks won’t have to be worn during PE classes, theatre or singing classes and in some forms of vocational education. Contact professions and healthcare Hairdressers, driving instructors and nail stylists and others in the so-called contact professions will have to wear a face mask, as will their clients. Healthcare professionals such as family doctors and physiotherapists are exempt from the rule but healthcare institutions have their own rules and both professionals and patients will have to follow those. Exceptions: People who have health problems which would make wearing a face mask difficult are exempt but will have to make this clear to police or street wardens who may confront them. The rules do not specify how they should do this. Face masks need not be worn during sport activities, acting, rehearsals or shows and during television or radio interviews. The Netherlands is one of the last countries in Europe to impose the wearing of masks following pressure from the public and MPs. The Dutch health institute RIVM which advises the government still maintains that face masks do not significantly lower the risk of infection. Retail chains, such as Ahold, which comprises Albert Heijn, Etos and Gall & Gall, have already said they will ‘inform customers about the obligation but not refuse non-wearers’.

History has shown that Ethiopia’s problems cannot be resolved by or through bloodshed – a civil war would be unwinnable. Only the commitment to inclusive dialogue, consensus-building and reconciliation can give Ethiopia a chance of progress. A simmering feud between Ethiopia’s Federal Government and leaders in the Tigray region has escalated into armed confrontation which threatens to turn into a civil war, with long-term repercussions for stability across the Horn of Africa region. Urgent intervention is needed to reduce tensions and commit both parties to a cease-fire and negotiations. Ethiopia stands on the precipice of a devastating internal conflict less than three years after the emergence of a new leader in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali – a Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2019 – and the evolution of a political transition that promised so much in terms of institutional reforms, inclusivity and freedoms. The possibility of civil war not only calls into question the unity of Africa’s second most populous nation, but threatens any possibility of the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region moving beyond decades of cyclical conflict towards stability and integration. Intensified military action was justified by the prime minister as a response to armed provocation and perceived intransigence from leaders in Tigray, a region in Ethiopia’s north-eastern highlands which is home to seven million of Ethiopia’s 110-million population. Relations have been fraught for some time, particularly since the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)’s departure from Ethiopia’s ruling coalition in 2019. Both parties have worked hard to delegitimize the other short of open armed conflict in recent months. The postponement of national elections in August due to COVID-19 complicated the crisis, with the lack of inclusivity and consultation around the process resented in Tigray. This resulted in the TPLF holding a unilateral and unconstitutional election and refusing to recognise the Federal Government’s legitimacy. In turn, the prime minister denounced the Tigray elections, cut ties with the regional administration and withheld federal budget subsidies, accusing the TPLF of stoking violence across the country. Clashes began on 4 November, with government claims of an ambush by regional forces on the federal Northern Command base near Tigray’s capital Mekelle. In truth, preparations for a larger confrontation were already underway, with federal troops amassing on Tigray’s borders and the government swiftly imposing a six-month state of emergency in the region. The House of Federation also approved a resolution to replace the TPLF with an interim administration. Amidst a connectivity blackout in Tigray, Prime Minister Abiy has largely controlled the narrative around developments, asserting that the military action being taken by the sovereign government to extract the rebellious TPLF is a law enforcement measure. The situation is rapidly evolving with federal airstrikes on alleged artillery installations, much of the early fighting concentrated in Western Tigray close to Sudan and Eritrea and the number of reported casualties rising. There are conflicting accounts on the status of the Northern Command, with the TPLF claiming that it has allied itself with the regional government. Prime Minister Abiy may be calculating that an incisive and intense military offensive will pressure Tigray’s leaders into a climb-down, in order to avoid a fullscale conflict and the undoubted heavy losses that would incur, thus giving Addis Ababa the upper hand in subsequent negotiations. A more worrying scenario is the Federal Government following-up on its intent to remove the TPLF from Mekelle. Given the TPLF’s military history, organisational sophistication and firepower, this is a frightening prospect. More than half of Ethiopia’s armed forces and armaments are located in Tigray, with much of the country’s military equipment in TPLF hands. Even if Prime Minister Abiy wins the initial battle it would be much more difficult for him to win a protracted and punishing war, or the support needed from the majority of Tigrayans. The consequences of growing instability spread far beyond Tigray. Hundreds, if not thousands, have been killed in the past three months in incidents of identity-based violence in Oromia, Benishangul, and the Southern region. Vast areas in Western Ethiopia are under the control of Oromo militants.

Many believe the conflict with Tigray is being used partly to deflect public attention from the government’s inability to stop this recurrent violence. Public trust has been eroded by the

exploitation of tragedy for political gain by different groups, including the government’s inability to present credible evidence of its accusations against the TPLF and other political opponents in the federalist camp (like prominent Oromo Jawhar Mohammed), and the limited respect for due process and decisions taken by the courts. The involvement of Amhara militia and special forces in the fighting in Tigray alongside the federal army will exacerbate the historical competition between Amhara and Tigray elites and tensions between their ethnic communities. This could hasten the fracture of the armed forces along ethnic lines. Regional implications The crisis also risks seriously destabilising the entire Horn of Africa, a region still feeling the aftershocks of the 1998-2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea war, which killed up to to 100,000 people and led to a regional proxy war that lasted for two decades. Tigray borders Eritrea (see above map) and the TPLF was at the forefront of the fighting, cementing an enmity between Tigrayan and Eritrean leaders that continues today. The 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea – which won Abiy his Nobel Prize – has only been partially implemented without the inclusion and support of Tigray.

TPLF officials accuse the prime minister and Eritrean president of collaborating to destabilise Tigray and tarnish the legacy and successes of the TPLF dominated era. Sudan shares a border with northern Ethiopia and is experiencing its own delicate transition. Elites within its civilian-military government have links with Addis Ababa, Mekelle and Asmara. Sudan partly closed its eastern border and deployed troops to the region following discussions between Lt-General Abdel Al-Fattah Al-Burhan and Prime Minister Abiy, and there are indications that Tigray has established a corridor to import weapons and supplies through Sudan. Sudan’s Prime Minister, chair of the regional bloc IGAD, has also tried to convince his counterpart to stabilise the situation. A prolonged conflict could lead to hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing to Eastern Sudan, a region already experiencing significant inter-communal turbulence. As well as Ethiopians, there are almost 100,000 Eritreans living in and Ethiopian communities along the border. Ethiopia is also one of the largest contributors to peacekeeping missions with thousands of troops across the Horn, including in Somalia. Reports indicate that Ethiopia has already begun removing its non-AMISOM troops from

Somalia, which could weaken support for Somali forces and provide opportunities for al-Shabaab to retake territory and implement attacks, especially during the upcoming

Somalia elections.

The need to prioritise dialogue

From a regional security and diplomatic perspective,

Ethiopia is too big to fail. Prime Minister Abiy has so far allayed considerable international concern, but the UN,

AU and EU should ramp up coordinated diplomatic efforts and demands for an immediate cessation of hostilities – as should the US and UK – two of Ethiopia’s largest bilateral donors.

A strong message from president-elect Biden, with bipartisan backing, would be influential and begin to reverse the damage done to US-Ethiopia relations under President Trump. International actors need to be clear that there will be meaningful accountability for attacks on civilians and push for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor. Both sides need to pull back from the abyss and moderate their extreme demands to secure a truce. South Africa’s ANC and the Chinese Communist Party could potentially play a bridging role to help narrow differences towards reaching a negotiated settlement. The UN and AU should also appoint an envoy to Ethiopia, preferably a respected senior African statesperson, to oversee a cease-fire and facilitate a locally initiated and genuinely inclusive mediation. Discussions would seek to overcome the constitutional dispute that partly sparked the conflict, reach consensus on the role and responsibilities of political forces moving forward, as well as agreement on the election modalities and timetable. In the current climate, there is little possibility of holding peaceful, let alone free and fair elections in 2021.