Executive Summary

The capacity for the BRI to offer sustainable avenues for international cooperation depends on multiple factors. The paper defines ‘sustainable avenues for international cooperation’ as cooperative capabilities to engender the 5Ps of Sustainable Development - people, prosperity, planet, partnership and peace.

Exploring BRI matters related to ‘People’ assesses the extent to which equitable and progressive social outcomes have derived from it. This sentiment is also reflected in the ‘Prosperity’ analysis, particularly regarding infrastructure, aid and financial inclusion, and identifies the extent to which robust and equitable economic growth is strengthened or weakened by the BRI. Analysing the ‘Planet’ dimension, the paper examines the proliferation of environmentally sustainable and unsustainable activities by the BRI. This pertains to energy, infrastructure and land-based projects, and explores the various implications for the environment. While the ‘Partnerships’ and ‘Peace’ dimensional analyses are different, they generate similar conclusions, promulgating the need for multi-scale and multi-stakeholder collaboration across BRI projects.

Specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are used to assess the extent to which each ‘P’ is being attained through the BRI. These KPIs are also applied to specific case studies for each ‘P’. The research highlights varying outcomes for sustainable avenues for cooperation in the context of the BRI and puts forward policy recommendations for improvement. Broadly speaking, the policy recommendations suggest stronger multistakeholder engagement at all scales of BRI projects, particularly with local community actors. Additionally, stronger policy coherence is found to be necessary across all dimensions. This ensures best-practice impact assessment, community engagement and

monitoring & evaluation (M&E) underpin the BRI’s implementation, and mitigate adverse ‘spillover’ effects. More effective social and economic cost-benefit analyses should also be undertaken for a more holistic baseline understanding of social and economic situations. This would establish more accurate goals, thresholds and risk mitigation strategies for the social and economic impact of BRI projects. This can be further engendered through stronger human rights frameworks and the provision of more social co-benefits, such as educational opportunities, to local communities where BRI projects are being undertaken. Additionally, green technology sharing in the context of infrastructure development, and the instigation of stronger environmental regulations, are means to bolster the BRI’s environmental credentials.

These policy recommendations are directed at policy makers across the Indo-Pacific and those associated with external powers. ‘External powers’ refers to geopolitically powerful countries and multilateral institutions outside the Indo-Pacific with interests in the BRI. These include the WTO, the EU, UN and the UK.