NIGERIA'S HISTORIC ELECTION: Controversies, Doubts as Results Trickle in Two Days After

• Tinubu Takes Early Lead As APC, PDP, LP Claim Victory

• LP Raises the Alarm Over Alleged Manipulation

• INEC

Apologises Over Delayed Results, Postpones Collation

• Late Arrival of Materials, Pockets of Violence Mar Poll

• Ayade, Elumelu, Ugwuanyi, Ishaku Defeated in Key Races

BY AMOS ESELE

On February 25, 2023, the much-awaited baptism of fire for the frontline presidential candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar; Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, (NNPP) finally came.

Tinubu, Atiku and Obi had been primed for victory by a series of political polls which, at every turn during electioneering, predicted victory for each of them. The NOI/ANAP and Bloomberg polls had projected victory for Obi. The POLAF poll did so for Atiku, while Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industrial Research and Economic Intelligence Unit polls did the same for Tinubu.

By Sunday evening, as the results started trickling into the National Collation Centre in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, the emerging picture became clearer. As THEWILL projected in its February 20-25, 2023 edition, the three major candidates, namely Tinubu, Atiku and Obi, were running neck-to-neck. But then, things started to unravel as days rolled into nights.

Doubts began to creep in with shouts of compromise,

• Results So Far, Validate THEWILL's violence and disruptions in many states.

More alarming to the voting public was that, contrary to expectations supported by law, results were yet to be uploaded into the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) server, even as at 3 pm on Sunday when THEWILL learnt that results from over 25 states were ready and the State Collation Officers, accompanied by their Resident Electoral Officers, had arrived in Abuja as directed by the Chief National Returning officer, who also doubles as the National Chairman of INEC, Professor Mahmood Yakubu.

The INEC boss had promised before the election that results from the various polling units would be uploaded into the Commission’s server where Nigerians who log in can view results and updates in real time.

The Commission’s failure to do that raised doubts about its neutrality and transparency, even after Yakubu had formally opened the National Collation Centre, Abuja twice on Saturday, February 25, addressed the media on issues facing the ongoing voting process and then on Sunday when he announced the shifting of collation and announcements of results from 12 noon to 6:pm.

Projections

Meanwhile, there is no strong indication to show that this newspaper’s previous projection for the major presidential candidates has changed substantially. Our immediate past edition shows the following trend:

PDP’s Path to 25% in 24 States

Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Oyo, Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara, Plateau, Katsina, Sokoto, Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara, Jigawa, Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi States.

APC’s Path to 25% in 24 States

Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Oyo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara, Plateau, Katsina, Sokoto, Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa and Kebbi States.

LP’s Path to 25% in 24 States

The LP’s path dwindled from 23 to 20 states with Nasarawa, Niger and Taraba now firmly involved in a two-way rivalry between the PDP and APC, leaving Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Plateau, Rivers, Kogi, Benue, Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Ebonyi, Taraba, Kaduna and FCT for the LP.