FORECASTS

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Know the difference: A watch vs. a warning

Without looking it up, do you know the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning? How about with storm surge? What’sastormsurgewarning?

Meteorologists consider watches and warnings a crucial piece of information that can help you better pin down your risk level as storms approach.

A hurricane watch occurs when hurricane conditions, with winds of up to 74 mph or higher, are possible within a specific area. Key word: possible. A hurricane watch arrives two days, or 48 hours, before meteorologists expect tropical stormforce winds will arrive in your area, according to the National Weather Service.

“A hurricane watch means you really need to get your prepara- tions completed,” said Paul Close, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay. “Preparedness activities become much more difficult once winds become tropical-storm force winds.”

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions (winds 74 mph or higher) are expected within a specific area. The key word now is “expected.” Meteorologists issue a hurricane warning 36 hours ahead of the anticipated arrival of tropical storm-force winds to make sure there’s enough heads-up for storm prep.

So a watch comes before a warning Here’s one way to remember it: Think of a sailor on top of a ship’s crows nest, looking out over the ocean with a long telescope. The sailor is watching for threats. Once a threat is found, then comes the warning to the crew below. A watch, thenawarning

On the forecast graphics released by the National Hurricane Center,

NOAA hurricane watches are denoted in pink, while hurricane warnings are in red. A lot of focus is on the hurri- cane cones, but watches and warnings are an important detail to track when a storm is looming, according to Cangialosi. “It’s always best to rely on where your watches and warnings are, and where the impacts are set to be,” Cangialosi said. “Because the cone is just a general depiction of where that center (of the storm) is goingtogo.”

In these two Hurricane Ian forecast advisories from Sept. 26, the Tampa Bay region goes from a “hurricane watch,” shaded in pink, to a “hurricane warning,” shaded in red, over a three-hour period.

Take a look at the side-by-side comparison in the image at the left Forecasters issued these two advisories three hours apart on Sept. 26 as Hurricane Ian was barreling toward Cuba.NoticetheTampaBayarea:At 2 p.m., the region is shaded in pink. That means we were under a hurricane watch, where hurricane conditionswerepossible.

But by 5 p.m., forecasters elevated the risk for the region by placing Tampa Bay under a hurricane warning The graphic on the right now shows Tampa Bay shaded in red. Hurricane conditions went from being possible to being expected. That one change to the forecast can help better inform your preparation efforts.

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