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Signs point to shift in Valley housing market – maybe

BY PAUL MARYNIAK

Tribune Executive Editor

Home prices aren’t coming down, but sellers’ negotiating power apparently is as the market may be cooling faster than expected, according to the Valley’s leading analyst of the housing market.

“Your negotiation power is dissipating at a rapid rate,” the Cromford Report warned sellers in a post last week. “It will take several months of this trend continuing to reach a balanced market, but this no longer looks like such a far-fetched idea.”

And if you want to understand one of the factors influencing prices, the Cromford Report offers a suggestion: “Demand from investors for rentals now represents nearly 21% of all home sales.”

“The reported intent of buyers has changed significantly over the past year,” it explains. “In Maricopa County, purchases for owner occupation as a primary residence have declined 19.4% between April 2021 and April 2022. Purchases as a second home have declined by 8.1%. In contrast, purchases to turn into a rental have increased by 8.5%.”

And it suggests the actual percentage is likely higher, asserting that it’s likely some buyers are not being truthful in stating the reason for the home purchase on the affidavit of value that the state Revenue Department requires on every home transaction. “This is sure to be an undercount,” it states. That affidavit asks the buyer to list whether the purchase is being made for a primary residence, to rent to someone other than a qualifying family member or as a second home.

“Just a cursory inspection shows us that many unscrupulous investors are marking their Affidavits of Value as purchases of a primary residence, no doubt to attract lower taxes,” the Cromford Report states. “It is perjury to enter incorrect informaTo illustrate the shifting submarkets in the Valley, the Cromford Report’s Cromford Market Index is based on analyzing the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market. This most recent index shows how the numbers have changed in a month. (The Cromford Report) tion on an Affidavit of Value and each of these documents are notarized. However, we are yet to hear of any government agency taking action to enforce the state laws surrounding Affidavits of Value.” The influence of investors on the rental market has been significant over the last year as real estate investment companies have been paying two, three and even greater times the price of an apartment complex than the seller paid within the last two to five years.

Likewise, large and smaller investors also have been buying single-family homes, keeping inventory low as prices climb. But one sign of a sea shift in the market – and the reason for the Cromford Report’s pessimistic message to sellers – is its market index. That index bases short-term forecasts of how balance the market is in 17 Valley municipalities by analyzing the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

All 17 cities are cooling quickly and their CMI is dropping 10% or more over the past month. 9 cities have fallen by 20% or more over the last month and one – Queen Creek – by as much as 30%,” the Cromford Report said.

Still, those markets remain well within what the Cromford Report considers heavily tilted toward sellers in most of those 17 cities. The lowest two are Buckeye,at 188, and Maricopa, at 219, while the two highest are Fountain Hills at 473 and Avondale at 442.

Phoenix is at 369 while East Valley submarkets’ rankings are: Mesa, 366; Gilbert, 363; Chandler, 354; and Tempe, 292.

Stating that its index as early as May 9 “was the first indicator to sound the alarm about the current market direction,” the Cromford Report adds, “We can now see several other early indicators fall like a sequence of dominoes toppling over.”

“Supply is growing in almost all areas thanks to a plentiful and growing flow of new listings, while homes are going under contract at a slower rate than we have seen for a long time.”

“While all the numbers are low in absolute terms, the 2022 line is shooting skywards like a missile. This tells us that supply is increasing very quickly relative to demand.”

Still, it’s too early to say what will happen over the enxt six months, the Cromford Report warns.

“I am NOT saying this is going to happen in 2022 and 2023, but I am saying this trend needs to be watched very closely,” it states. “A balanced market will have about 120 to 135 days of inventory and if we get more than 150 days we will be in a buyer’s market, one where prices will tend to fall rather than rise.

“My advice is to keep watching days of inventory like a hawk and react appropriately.” ■

THE MESA TRIBUNE | MAY 22, 2022

BUSINESS 19 Carrington College displays offerings in Mesa

TRIBUNE NEWS STAFF

The best way an enterprise can celebrate an anniversary is by showing what it can do and that’s exactly what Carrington College did recently to mark 30 years serving the East Valley.

It sponsored a student nursing simulations and lab demonstrations, games, prizes, food trucks and a campus tour for guests to meet with faculty and staff.

“It is an honor to celebrate our 30th anniversary and reflect upon the impact we have made in the Mesa community,” said Campus Director at the Carrington College Mesa campus, Antonio D. Thompson.

“For example, the dental hygiene programs at Carrington College has provided complimentary dental services for more than 21 years. Under the supervision of a licensed dentist, dental hygiene students provide X-rays, teeth cleanings, fluoride treatments, polishings, fillings, and sealants to patients who are often unable to afford these services,” added Thompson.

“Within Arizona, 29 percent of all the dental hygiene graduates were from Carrington College. That’s an incredible achievement and we are proud of our graduates and the work they do to improve our community.”

Carrington College was founded in 1967 and provides students with a careerfocused education in the medical, dental, veterinary, trades and industrial fields.

With locations in Phoenix and Glendale as well as Mesa, the college “is committed to student learning and achievement with a skills-based approach to education,” a spokesman said. Carrington is accredited by the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges, Western Association of Schools and Colleges.

Its Mesa campus offers programs such as: • Associate degree in nursing that helps prepare students for RN licensure. RNs coordinate patient care, educate patients and the public about various health conditions, and provide advice and emotional support to patients and their families. • Medical Assisting, which prepares students fora vital part of any healthcare office, completing administrative and clinical tasks in the offices of physicians, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities. • Veterinary Assisting, which trains students to help care for animals, helping veterinarians and veterinary technicians. Students can prepare for a career in veterinary medicine in as few as nine months with the Carrington program. • Dental Hygiene, which prepares students for handling the majority of patient care in a routine, preventive visit. The Carrington program uses hands-on instruction to help students prepare for this important job. • Dental Assisting, which trains students to keep a dental office running smoothly by assisting patients, dentists and dental hygienists with the routine tasks associated with oral health. • Pharmacy Technology. While becoming a pharmacist can take years of specialized training, becoming a pharmacy technician is a much faster path to working in the pharmacy field with plenty of benefits. The Mesa campus helps prepare students for this role in as few as nine months. • Medical Billing and Coding, which trains students in a variety of roles in the administrative side of healthcare. • Physical Therapist Assistant, which helps students in as little as 19 months learn to help patients with a variety of exercises and functional activities through the use of therapeutic interventions. • Physical Therapy Technology. Here, students in as little as nine months can learn operational activities and work with patients by scheduling appointments and bringing them in and out of the therapy areas.

Information:.Carrington.edu. ■

Dental Assisting Instructor Lena Guerrero leans in for a look as Storme Yorgason checks to see if a plastic vacuum mold is ready at Carrington College’s 30th anniversary open house May 12

(David Minton/Tribune Staff Photographer)

Instructor Jamie Brabeau walks students Lidia Ortiz and Daniel Avalos through the steps as they make lip balm in the pharmacy lab at the Carrington College 30th anniversary open Instructor Jamie Brabeau walks students Lidia Ortiz and Daniel Avalos through the steps as they make lip balm in the pharmacy lab at the Carrington College open house. (David Minton/

Neuropathy Is Often Misdiagnosed

Muscle cramping, difficulty walking, burning, tingling, numbness, and pain in the legs or feet are symptoms of neuropathy people live with every day,” explains Dr. Kerry Zang, podiatric medical director of CIC Foot & Ankle. “The thing is PAD has very similar symptoms. So similar that in many cases, people are told it’s neuropathy when it may not be.”

Medicine is often prescribed. “Pills aren’t a cure, they just suppress the symptoms,” says Zang. “If neuropathy isn’t causing the symptoms, the real problem could get worse.”

It’s important to determine if PAD (peripheral artery disease) is causing the pain or making it worse. PAD is plaque in the arteries which causes poor circulation. “Blood brings oxygen and nutrients to your feet which they need to stay healthy,” explains Zang, “When your feet aren’t getting an adequate supply, they start sending signals.” Those signals include pain, burning, tingling, numbness, or cramping.

The good news is PAD is treatable in an office setting. Dr. Joel Rainwater, MD endovascular specialist explains, “We go into the bloodstream to find the blockage using imaging guidance. Then with small tools that can go into the smallest arteries, remove the blockage, and restore blood flow.”

Getting the proper diagnosis is the first step to getting better. “It’s all about finding out what’s causing the problem,” says Zang. “When your feet burn, tingle, or feel numb, it’s your body telling you it needs help, and you should listen.”

If your neuropathy medication is not working, your symptoms may be an indication of another condition.

For golfers, a stiff big toe can make their game suffer.

HELP!

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Don’t wait for your feet to yell at you. If your feet hurt, they are talking to you. Our doctors can help tell you what they are saying.

Does foot pain prevent you from doing your favorite activity? Do you have burning or tingling in your legs or feet? Do you have leg or foot cramps with activity or at rest?

If you’ve answered “yes” to any of these questions, call our office today to see how our doctors can help.

(602)954-0777 azfeet.com

Dr. Kerry Zang • Dr. Shah Askari • Dr. Dan Schulman • Dr. Kim Leach Dr. Barry Kaplan • Dr. Jeff Weiss • Dr. Patrick Gillihan

Stiff Joints Interfere with Everyday Living

One in 40 people over the age of 50 may find themselves limiting their activity because of a condition called hallux rigidus. It’s a degenerative disease of the big toe joint. As it progresses, the pain in the joint increases and motion decreases.

“People don’t realize the impact their big toe has on their life. It plays a role in balance, shock absorption, and forward movement as you walk,” explains Dr. Daniel Schulman, of CiC Foot & Ankle. “When the joint is stiff, it’s not able to bend and rotate properly, and it changes how we walk without us even realizing it.” These changes can lead to back or knee pain as well as discomfort in other parts of the foot.

“It always concerns me to hear that someone is playing less golf or staying home because they’re in pain,” says Schulman. “There are ways to help.” The goal is to protect your feet from the repetitive stress of everyday activities. “We have several treatment options to not only relieve foot pain but help improve how your feet work. If we can help your feet function better, in many cases the need for surgery can be avoided or at the very least postponed,” says Schulman. “Patients are always happy to learn about ways to alleviate their symptoms.”