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Valley housing market dashing toward balance

BY PAUL MARYNIAK Tribune Executive Editor

The Valley’s leading analyst of the Phoenix Metro housing market is predicting the entire region could see a balanced market – with supply meeting demand – by September. Buckeye is already there and Queen Creek and Maricopa should be this week, the Cromford Report said last Friday. And Mesa and the rest of the East Valley are heading toward equilibrium because of an overall cooling in the market. “Their markets are cooling rapidly and look likely to move into the balance zone within a matter of weeks rather than months. Unless the current trends change, we could be in a buyer’s market across much of Central Arizona by the beginning of September,” Cromford said. The trend is a stunning reversal for a market that began the year – and dominated 2021 – with buyers at the mercy of bidding wars, foregoing inspections or making other concessions to sellers in a desperate effort to secure a home.

This 9,400-square-foot house on E. Kenwood Street in Mesa, built in 2008, recently sold for $3.5 million. The twostory home has a 413-square-foot guest house, six bedrooms, a kitchen with high-end appliances, a classical theater, a wrought-iron curved staircase and a number of other amenities. (Special to the Tribune) While a sudden flood of new listings might be welcome by prospective buyers, the Cromford Report said they may be in for more heartache – and that sellers will be grabbing their crying towels along with them. That’s partly because home prices remain at record levels and rising interest rates appear to be dousing buy-

see MARKET page 19

Downtown store ‘inspires’ wholesome food fans

BY MARK MORAN Tribune Managing Editor

Inspire Farms, Tiffiny Lilley’s thriving organic food and feed business, is really just a homeschool project gone bad. Monty and Blondie, the black and tan chickens roaming the floor of her downtown Mesa shop? A would-be science project for her kids. “I thought ‘great! Cycle of life,’” Lilley said. “Learn how to grown your own food.’ Just lots of lessons, right? Well, after one year they could care less. They weren’t into chickens anymore and here we are 16 years later and I still love chickens.” Monty and Blondie are long forgotten classroom-examplesturned store- mascots. They seem happy wandering the store’s gray tile floors, making their way through a maze of shelves, products and people, basking in the attention of picture snapping customers and pecking at the floor for seeds or other goodies. Inspire Farms is a cozy shop in the former U.S. Auto building on East Main Street in downtown Mesa. With its homey feel and a bit of a laid-back, hippie vibe, the place feels like a throwback to simpler times, even though the sleek and ultra-modern light rail whizzes by just a few steps outside the front door. “We have a 50-50 market,” Lilley said. “50-percent of our customers have farm animals and chickens and need to feed them and the other 50-percent want what the animals’ produce or don’t want the animals or can’t have them. “We’ve got chicken eggs, duck eggs, turkey eggs, quail eggs. All corn, free, soy free organic fed. We have raw milk, raw butter, raw cheese, refrigerator pickles, grass fed beef, Berkshire pork and corn free, soy free organic chicken meat.” seeINSPIRE page 20

The owners of Inspire Farms in downtown Mesa are Van Curry and Tiffiny Lilley. The shelves at Inspire Farms are stocked with organic feed for livestock and domesticated animals as well as organically raised food for people to eat. (Mark Moran/Tri-

ers’ interest. “In summary, prices have stopped rising but are still much higher than last year while sales volumes are dramatically lower than last year,” it said, adding that there has been more volatility with re-sales than new homes. Stating “it is predominantly the wealthy who are involved in the market at the moment” and that “most ordinary buyers are priced out,” the Cromford Report gave a gloomy assessment of the current Valley housing market. “The last two months have been dismal for the Greater Phoenix housing market, with demand fading sharply and supply growing at one of the fastest paces we have ever witnessed,” it said two weeks ago. “Either trend would have been negative but with both coming together, we have had a very chilly wind blowing through the market. “For many weeks, we have been looking for some convincing sign of the relaxation of one or both of these trends,” it continued. “We have not found any. Instead, over the last week, the situation has turned significantly worse, at least from a seller’s viewpoint. And it is worse from both a demand and a supply perspective.” It observed last week that the market here “hit the brakes so hard it has skidded off the road” because demand has fallen sharply while listings are skyrocketing. Realtor.com, an affiliate of the National Association of Realtors, said “Affordability will continue to remain a challenge for anyone looking to buy in the current market, as mortgage rates and home prices are not expected to drop this year; thankfully, they aren’t anticipated to grow as rapidly or significantly as they did earlier this year, though. “One strong positive is that the number of homes for sale is likely to increase as the year continues, meaning more options for buyers,” it continued. The Cromford Report based its predictions of the trend in the Phoenix Metro market on a variety of data it uses to compile the Cromford Market Index. The figures it arrives at each of the 17 major submarkets in the Valley indicate how close each community is to a balanced market, with numbers above 100 indicating a sellers’ market and numbers below 100 favorable for buyers. For all of 2021 and the first three months of this year, its CMI showed numbers at times exceeding 500 – indicating markets heavily tilted toward sellers as supply shriveled. But the latest CMI shows a starkly different picture, with those figures falling between 25% and 42% from the previous month in 16 Valley municipalities. The only exception is Paradise Valley, where the CMI dropped only 3% but remains heavily weighted toward sellers at 232 and ranking second only to Fountain Hills, with 254. In the West Valley, Avondale registered 176 on Cromford’s market index – well below the 799 it registered a year ago this month. Glendale is now at 161 whereas in July 2021, its CMI was 495. Peoria is listed at 136, far below the 475 index rating it had a year ago. Buckeye in the last 12 months has fallen from 396 to 100. The identical trend has emerged in the East Valley. Chandler a year ago had the fourth most favorable market for sellers at 530; now, it has the 11th most favorable sellers market at 139. Similarly, Gilbert has fallen from 490 in July 2021 to 137. Mesa has dwindled from 433 a year ago to 161. Scottsdale retains a relatively high ranking for sellers, though its position has fallen from 451 to 185 in the past year. The Cromford Report noted that a wisp of panic among people trying to sell their homes before losing any advantage in the marketplace appears to

be settling down. “The brighter sign is that the number of new listings over the past seven days is down from the extreme high of the week before,” it said on June 30. “At some point the seller stampede may run out of new sellers. This is not happening yet, but at least the rate at which sellers are joining the stamThis 3,973-square-foot house on E. Dower Street in Mesa recently sold for $1.3 million. The five-bedroom, four-bath pede is slowing.” home in the gated Hidden Groves community was built in 2000 and boasted walk-in closets in all bedrooms, a re- Still, a few cent contemporary renovation of the interior, and a landscape with mature fruit trees. (Special to the Tribune) days earlier, it also said, “More homes are being listed for sale than at any time since 2011.” But it added, “We are not seeing forced selling, like we experienced during the foreclosure wave of 2007 to 2011. This is people electing to sell because they fear a fall in home prices. That fear is likely to be self-fulfilling. When so many attempts to make it to the exit door ahead of evOne strong positive is that eryone else, people get hurt.. the number of homes for sale is likely to increase as the “We do not pretend to know how much prices will fall in numeric or percentage terms, but the latest data suggests that year continues, meaning more it is already impossible for home prices options for buyers, to rise under the current market conditions,” it said. “As people get more anxious to dispose of their housing assets, price cuts are growing in number and size. The very top and bottom of the market are least affected, but the mid-range, where the vast majority of transactions occur, is experiencing a big freeze. “When a buyer’s strike and a seller’s stampede occur at the same time, the market stalls in mid-flight. A price correction becomes inevitable. The Federal Reserve has stated that they want to see a ‘reset in the housing market,’ and it looks increasingly likely that their wish will come true. ”

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The list, it would seem, goes on. The pandemic that devastated the world economy? “It was a good thing for me,” she said. “My husband’s business went down to zero and my business skyrocketed.” Lilley and her husband Van Curry stared down the barrel of the pandemic. Van’s stalled trade show business, with its bulky signs and exhibits taking up space in his idle warehouse, were a perfect opportunity for them to grow Tiffiny’s home-based business into a full-blown bricks and mortar operation. Now she has a place to store her product, which is in ever-increasing demand. Win-win. “He had a warehouse and a dock and forklift so it worked out for me,” Lilley said. “We more than doubled.” Curry’s trade show business completely crashed during the pandemic. “It’s amazing how hard it is to get back to where it was,” he said. But Lilley and Curry have put all their organic eggs in one basket and, so far at least, it’s working out. “Everyone wants to know where their food is coming from,” Lilley said. “What’s in the food and if I can’t get it where do I go? Well, the best place is the back yard. So, if you can grow your own food, raise your own food, collect your own eggs, you are in a much better position than the rest of the planet.”

The shelves at Inspire Farms are filled with huge, vacuum packed bags of organic chicken feed, raw dog food, bales of hay, local honey and lots of other corn and soy free products for both livestock and domesticated animals.

The refrigerators are full of raw milk, cream, cheese, goat butter and organic eggs, all raised corn and soy free. There are chicken cages, coups, pens and “advice,”

Lilley said, for people trying to get into the organic lifestyle.

“People were having a hard time,”

Curry said. “They wanted to be able to have their own food at home.

They don’t want to have to count on the idea that I may have to go through a grocery store that may or may not have their doors open.” Lilley added, “I think that is the difference between us and other chicken stores is that we actually want to help you succeed. We will answer your questions and make sure that you are on the right path to making it work. I always tell people if you get hung up, give me a call. We’ve made a lot of good friends. We know many of them by name.” The relationships have expanded to include fellow Mesa businesspeople on Main Street who tell Lilley that she has one thing that no other Mesa business can possibly compete with. “You have chickens,” they tell her. “A lot of people stop by to say ‘hi’ to Monty.” It’s hard to miss Inspire Farms between Center Street and Horne. There is a huge mural on one side of the adjacent building next to the parking lot depicting a farm scene, replete with oversize flowers, stick figure chickens, a barn and a huge sun. “We are one flower away from having that mural done,” Lilley said. The shop is visible and invested in the community in other ways, too. Inspire Farms holds story time for kids on Thursdays from 10-10:25 a.m. and music classes from 10:30-11:30 a.m. We try to keep everything super local,” Lilley said.

Monty and Blondie are free to roam around their masters’ Inspire Farms store in downtown Mesa. (Mark Moran/Tribune Staff)

Information: inspirefarms.com, 480-684-

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