Gilbert Sun News Real Estate Guide December 2019

REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS AN EDITION OF THE SUNDAY EAST VALLEY TRIBUNE | DECEMBER 15, 2019

Gilbert is hottest housing market in the nation

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SPOTLIGHT home

BY PAUL MARYNIAK GSN Executive Editor

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hree East Valley cities have the top three the hottest housing markets in the country and Gilbert tops them all, according to the home-and-condo-sale website RealtyHop.com. The data the website used to declare Gilbert number 1 with Chandler and Mesa occupying second and third place, respectively, is good news for sellers but heaps more bad news on other data making a gloomy outlook for people looking to buy a home in the East Valley. RealtyHop analyzed 300,000 home listings to determine the Once it's finished, this 10,000-square-foot home on E. Waterone-month change in sale price man Way will have six bedrooms with full bathrooms, a basetwo-story master closet, a vault room, a gym/fitness center, from asking price between Oc- ment, a movie theater, three fireplaces, and an RV garage. Given the tober and November, noting “in state of the market, it's likely the sale price won't fall much below theory, stronger markets should the $2,995,000 list price. (Special to GSN) exhibit fewer price drops and smallCalling Gilbert “the hottest housing er percentage discounts, while weaker market in the country,” RealtyHop said, markets would show the opposite.” And in Gilbert, that change was a low “Gilbert’s amenities and family-friendly average 1.57 percent discount off the atmosphere have made it a particularly original price, followed by Chandler strong city for net positive migration.” with a 1.69 percent drop and Mesa’s 1.89 percent price decrease. see MARKET page 2

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See Page 6

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REAL ESTATE

MARKET from page 1

It said Chandler’s price discount “while still very healthy” was deeper than the previous month of 1.44 percent while Mesa jumped up four spots in one month on the site’s 10 hottest housing markets in the country. Rounding out the top five were Stockton, California, which saw a list price drop of 1.9 percent “as it continues to be desirable for those seeking refuge from high real estate prices in the Bay Area,” and fifth-place Glendale in the West Valley, which climbed into fifth place from number 8 with an average 1.92 percent price drop. The ratings come as Cromford Report, which closely analyzes the housing market in Maricopa and Pinal counties, came out last week with a startling declaration: “We have a situation that favors sellers to an almost alarming degree.” “Supply is down 25 percent compared to this time last year when it was already well below normal,” it continued. “Demand has retained strength much later into the season than normal.” At the same time, the monthly median price of homes in November was $281,000 – up 7.9 percent from the median price of $260,500 in November 2018. But despite increased prices, homes were flying off the market, Cromford said. It said under-contract listings last month totaled 9,572 – a staggering

GILBERT SUN NEWS AN EDITION OF THE SUNDAY EAST VALLEY TRIBUNE | DECEMBER 15, 2019

Marketwatch said recent data suggests “builders are ramping up construction of new homes, which should alleviate the supply crunch. But Yun doubted the pace of the new construction could make up for the growth in population the nation will see in coming decades. The trend is hitting younger families the hardest, Realtor.com said, citing data indicating the median age of U.S. homebuyers is now 47 – far above the median age of 31 in 1981. Once it's finished, this 10,000-square-foot home on E. Waterman Way will have six bedrooms with full bathrooms, a basement, “Notably, the median two-story master closet, a vault room, a gym/fitness center, a movie theater, three fireplaces, and an RV garage. Given the state of the market, it's likely the sale price won't fall much below the $2,995,000 list price. (Special to GSN) age has increased by eight years since the financial 23.7 percent increase over November tract counts? At the moment it looks as crisis,” Realtor.com said. “Much of this though sellers will be firmly in control.” rise can be attributed to the disap2018 sales. Cromford’s analysis reinforces na- pearance of young, first-time homeCromford also warned price increastionwide reports by both Marketwatch. buyers from the housing market.” es are only just beginning. Meanwhile, RealtyHop doesn’t offer “Pricing has moved higher over the com and Realtor.com. much consolation for buyers look“The housing inventory situation will last two months, but we are only at the beginning of the latest leg upwards,” it remain a major hurdle for the housing ing to bargain their way into a cheap market and home-buyers alike moving homestead. said, adding: The least healthy housing market “Things will not get easier for buyers forward,” marketwatch said. Added Lawrence Yun, chief econo- in the nation, it said, is Detroit, Michin the weeks ahead. Supply always falls during December as many sellers take mist for the National Association of igan, where the average price discount their homes off the market for the hol- Realtors: “We still need to address between October and November was iday season. Even without this effect, and, more importantly, correct inad- nearly 9 percent. That was followed by we have wholly inadequate supplies for equate levels of inventory across the Buffalo, Cleveland, San Francisco and country. There is no shortage of buy- Newark, New Jersey. the current level of demand. San Francisco places fourth because “The real test will come in January ers seeking homes, but a lack of availwhen we see which ramps up faster able units continues to drag down the it “continues to be the most expensive from the low point of Jan. 1, 2020: will nation’s housing market and overall housing market of any city in the Unitit be active listings or the under-con- economy.” ed States,” RealtyHop said.

Buyers sit on the fence at their own peril BY MINDY JONES NEVAREZ GSN Guest Writer

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ith a late Thanksgiving and a seemingly early Christmas, it sure feels like things are getting real festive real fast. Between family photos, client appreciation events, school parties, secret Santa presents and stocking stuffing, you might think that there’s absolutely no way, no how people would ever voluntarily sell their home or plan to move into a new home this time of year. But that, my holiday happy friend, is where you’d be mistaken. With low inventory and strong buyer demand in Gilbert, these predictions for 2020 might change

your mind about ringing in the New Year in your old living room. Home prices are expected to go up in 2020. Period. With annual appreciation in Gilbert holding steady north of 6 percent several years in a row and active listings continuing to decline with just 573 available homes for sale and less than 1.5 months active supply going into the new year, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Many buyers who have taken advantage of rising prices over the last couple of years already have enough equity in their home to drop their mortgage insurance premium or turn around and use their proceeds from their sale to move up or purchase an investment property for additional cash flow. And our renting friends? Some are considering breaking their lease and paying the one- or two-month penalty in lieu of

paying an additional $15,000-$25,000 in sales prices they might see by summer. Expect even lower inventory in our active adult communities come summer and instead consider renting out a home you purchase now since rental rates are up an estimated 10 percent year over year. Once you make a move, those rising prices mean additional equity in your pocket so the sense of urgency is there in flashing lights. Taking advantage of the current market means you’ll pick up the equity on the buyside and won’t be gambling on any unexpected market shifts. Mortgage rates are expected to stay in the high 3’s which is good for anyone who bought a house at any time in history – ever. The market has clearly changed in a ton of other ways as well. The shift in mortgage rates in 2019

brought about a flurry of well-qualified buyers by incentivizing them with lower monthly payments on the houses that they had watched appreciate in the last 12 months. A scan of the demographic landscape shows that millennials will account for more than 50 percent of all home purchase mortgages in 2020. Traditionally very pivotal times between the average age of marriage, first and second children, first and second jobs, career investment and retirement planning occur within this age range and therefore the expectation of first-home purchases, moveup purchases and the continued drive of affordability (read: mass exodus from California) will continue to inject excitement into the Gilbert real estate market.

see BUYERS page 5

GILBERT SUN NEWS AN EDITION OF THE SUNDAY EAST VALLEY TRIBUNE | DECEMBER 15, 2019

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REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS AN EDITION OF THE SUNDAY EAST VALLEY TRIBUNE | DECEMBER 15, 2019

Survey: Most millennials can't afford a house

GSN NEWS STAFF

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eople born between 1981 and 1996 are increasingly less likely – or able – to buy a house, according to a recent survey of more than 10,000 renters by ApartmentList.com concluded. The site, which helps people find apartments and rental homes, said 12.3 percent of millennial renters plan to “always rent” – up from 10.7 percent a year ago. And it said its survey indicated only 13 percent of millennials in Phoenix can afford to buy with a 20 percent down payment. This percentage is the lowest among 16 metropolitan areas analyzed by the site. The percentage rises to 35 percent for a down payment of only 5 percent. While lifestyle and renting’s financial benefits have motivated some millennials, “the down payment is, for many, the largest expense and biggest financial obstacle to homeownership,” apartmentlist.com said. “But some groups—par-

ticularly minority black and Hispanic millennials—say bad credit is a greater barrier.” “Despite the overwhelming support for homeownership, nearly half of millennial renters have no down payment savings,” apartmentlist.com said. “Some are expecting financial support from their families, but compared to last year,

that level of support is declining.” “When it comes to saving for a home, there is a wider gap between those with and without student debt than between those with and without a college degree,” the site added, estimating only a quarter of all millennial renters will be able to afford even a 10 percent downpayment in the next five years.

The site noted “a uniquely frustrating relationship” between millennials and the housing market. It said the two generations preceding millennials benefitted from rapid construction and the relative affordability of homes by the time they turned 30. “But millennials came of age in a very different climate,” it said. As young adults, the economy was characterized by the collapse of the housing market, quick growth in the cost of housing, and worsening income inequality. “By the time millennials were old enough to want to buy a home, many were skeptical they could afford to do so. This economic uncertainty – characterized by relatively low homeownership rates, delayed marriages, and smaller families – has become a central tenet of the millennial identity.” “The vast majority of millennials want to own a home, but millennial homeownership rates have significantly lagged previous generations,” it said, “Afford-

see RENT page 6

REAL ESTATE

GILBERT SUN NEWS AN EDITION OF THE SUNDAY EAST VALLEY TRIBUNE | DECEMBER 15, 2019

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Now is the time to consider mortgage re-fi BY MARY RAMSEY GSN Guest Writer

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s now the best time to refinance your current mortgage? The answer is yes, plain and simple. Rates are at a three-year low, as the average rate hasn’t been this low since October 2016. According to data released by Freddie Mac from lenders across the nation, the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate average fell to 3.49 percent with an average 0.5 point. Points are fees paid to a lender equal to one percent of the loan amount and are in addition to the interest rate. The surveyed average was 3.58 percent recently and

BUYERS from page 2

The average age of Gilbert residents is mid 30’s according to Census data. We can expect our baby boomers to want to stay put with the 2020 election wild card while our Gen Xers might be ready to take advantage of some of the appreciation they’ve seen over the past few years and give up those smaller homes for a little more space.

4.54 percent a year ago. How can refinancing at a lower rate help you? Let me count the ways. Refinancing your current mortgage can: 1) Lower your monthly payment. This will enable you to put more into savings, retirement accounts and investments. Plus, the interest is tax-deductible. 2) Cash-out. Is it time for a remodel or do you need to take care of home improvements? The cash-out option releases equity to be available for unforeseen expenses or purchases. Do you need a vacation? 3) Loan consolidation. bundle your debt and pay off liabilities, obligations and other financial commitments. It is possible your credit score could benefit from this change.

There will be continued competition for those entry-level homes but with the older millennials giving up their first crash pads to their younger peers and the Gen Xers letting the older millennials update their family homes, inventory might loosen up a bit. The real estate market has been going strong for quite a few years now and at some point, it’s going to have to have a little water thrown on its fire.

4) Shorten the term. For example, going from 30-year fixed to a 15-year fixed loan. By doing this, you are steps closer to owning your home free and clear, and there is potential you can save at least thousands of dollars in interest. Are you paying PMI (private mortgage insurance)? This could be a game-changer for you if your home value has increased and you now have over 20 percent in equity. Refinancing into a lower rate not only shaves off interest costs but also cuts out monthly PMI payments. This is generally 0.5 to 1 percent of the total loan on a yearly basis. For example, borrowers with a $200,000 mortgage and a PMI payment of 1 percent, have a savings of $2,000 per year or $167 per month.

Some say, the election in 2020 will be the thing that simmers the boil but with employment, wages and interest rates fueling the rate of sales, the trajectory of pricing based on simple supply and demand, and consumer sentiment around the market. I think it’s safe to say that if there is any cooling of the pot, Gilbert will be one of the last places you’ll feel the chill. Mindy Jones Nevarez, a Gilbert Realtor and

By taking five minutes out of your day, you can have a conversation with a trusted lender and explore your options through a simple mortgage check-up. If your current rate is 5 percent or higher, it is worth looking into a refinance. There are many programs available to you. If you are not thrilled with your current monthly payment, think your rate could be better or are in a situation where you will benefit from a refinance, now is the time to be curious and take advantage of the decline in interest rates. Mary Ramsey is a loan officer with Dignified Home Loans, LLC and can be reached at 909- 645-7455 or mary.ramsey@dignifiedhomeloans.

owner of the Amy Jones Group at Keller Williams Integrity First, can be reached at 602451-4975, Mindy@AmyJonesGroup.com or AmyJonesGroup.com Mindy Jones Nevarez, a Gilbert Realtor and owner of the Amy Jones Group at Keller Williams Integrity First, can be reached at 602-451-4975, Mindy@AmyJonesGroup. com or AmyJonesGroup.com

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• Average Days on Market: 43 days Up from 39 Days Last Month

• Active Listings: 573 Down from 692 Listings Last Month

• Monthly Sales: 386 UP from 381 Sales Last Month

• Listings Under Contract: 446 Down from 504 Listings Under Contract Last Month

• Average Sales Price: $399,299 Up from $386,723 Last Month

• Monthly Supply of Inventory: 1.5 Down From 1.7 Monthly Supply Last Month