Will Gov. Newsom Survive the Recall?, By Phil Trounstine and Jerry Roberts

CALIFORNIA NEWS Will Gov. Newsom Survive the Recall?

By Phil Trounstine and Jerry Roberts

Editor’s note: People seeking to recall Gov. Newsom have until March 17 to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall election. If they turn in enough valid signatures, a recall election would take place 60 to 80 days of signatures being verified. Longtime political experts Phil Trounstine of Aptos and Jerry Roberts wrote this analysis for CalBuzz.com

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Afew months ago, when the Coronavirus pandemic was just getting real, a majority of Californians thought Gov. Gavin Newsom was doing a good job of managing the crisis.

Not so much anymore.

Today, only 31% of California voters give Newsom good or excellent marks for handling the “coronavirus pandemic” in a survey by Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, compared to 43% who give him poor or very poor marks.

And in the poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, registered voters are split almost equally with 49% approving and 46% disapproving Newsom’s handling of the “coronavirus outbreak.”

Which is why Newsom’s overall approval rating has dipped to 46% among registered voters in the IGS Poll and 50% among registered voters in the survey from PPIC.

Much has been made of the difference between the findings of the two polls in part because IGS gave results for registered voters (46%) while PPIC focused on results from likely voters (52%).

But if you compare apples to apples – registered voters — the two polls are only about 4 percentage points apart on Newsom’s overall performance.

Bottom line, voters are not particularly happy with Newsom these days and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic/outbreak is the main reason. (Also: rank partisanship abides).

What it Means for Recall

All of which suggests the drive to recall Newsom is likely to get on the ballot because Republicans hate his guts. However, Prince Gavin is likely to survive a recall because Republican partisans represent only a small portion of California voters. Our old friend George Skelton at the LA Times, along with Ben Christopher at CalMatters and Jeremy White at Politico have already done some fine reporting and commentary on Newsom’s standing in the polls and his chances in a recall election. They rely somewhat on analyses from Mark DiCamillo and Co. at IGS and Mark Baldassare at PPIC.

IGS said, in part:

Fueling the decline is the public’s much more negative assessment of the way Newsom and state

Gavin Newsom

government are handling the pandemic. The latest poll finds fewer than one in three Californians (31%) rating Newsom as doing an excellent or good job in handling the pandemic overall, down from 49% last September. Also, just 22% offer a positive rating of the job he and state government are doing in overseeing the distribution of the coronavirus vaccines to the public. In addition, only about half (47%) have a great deal or some trust in the way the governor and state government are setting the rules when issuing stay-at-home orders or setting guidelines for business to follow to slow the spread of the virus, with majorities describing them as inconsistent (62%), confusing (60%) and ineffective (53%). While PPIC said:

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