California News

CALIFORNIA NEWS Will Gov. Newsom Survive the Recall?

By Phil Trounstine and Jerry Roberts

Editor’s note: People seeking to recall Gov. Newsom have until March 17 to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall election. If they turn in enough valid signatures, a recall election would take place 60 to 80 days of signatures being verified. Longtime political experts Phil Trounstine of Aptos and Jerry Roberts wrote this analysis for CalBuzz.com

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Afew months ago, when the Coronavirus pandemic was just getting real, a majority of Californians thought Gov. Gavin Newsom was doing a good job of managing the crisis.

Not so much anymore.

Today, only 31% of California voters give Newsom good or excellent marks for handling the “coronavirus pandemic” in a survey by Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, compared to 43% who give him poor or very poor marks.

And in the poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, registered voters are split almost equally with 49% approving and 46% disapproving Newsom’s handling of the “coronavirus outbreak.”

Which is why Newsom’s overall approval rating has dipped to 46% among registered voters in the IGS Poll and 50% among registered voters in the survey from PPIC.

Much has been made of the difference between the findings of the two polls in part because IGS gave results for registered voters (46%) while PPIC focused on results from likely voters (52%).

But if you compare apples to apples – registered voters — the two polls are only about 4 percentage points apart on Newsom’s overall performance.

Bottom line, voters are not particularly happy with Newsom these days and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic/outbreak is the main reason. (Also: rank partisanship abides).

What it Means for Recall

All of which suggests the drive to recall Newsom is likely to get on the ballot because Republicans hate his guts.

However, Prince Gavin is likely to survive a recall because Republican partisans represent only a small portion of California voters.

Our old friend George Skelton at the LA Times, along with Ben Christopher at CalMatters and Jeremy White at Politico have already done some fine reporting and commentary on New- (For what it’s worth, the som’s standing in the polls dispositive 538 pollster ratings and his chances in a recall show that PPIC has about the election. They rely somewhat same high rating as the now on analyses from Mark DiCa- defunct Field Poll had, but millo and Co. at IGS and Mark enjoys a much better rating Baldassare at PPIC. than Berkeley.)

IGS said, in part: PPIC uses live interviews

Fueling the decline is and random digit dialing, the public’s much more which gives every telephone negative assessment of the exchange (land line and cell way Newsom and state Gavin Newsom phone) an equal chance of government are handling the pan- being surveyed, and they use an estabdemic. The latest poll finds fewer lished method to get someone from the than one in three Californians household on the phone. (31%) rating Newsom as doing an This is classic polling methodology, excellent or good job in handling developed over decades to ensure that the pandemic overall, down from a random sample of the population is 49% last September. surveyed.

Also, just 22% offer a positive But it has become increasingly more rating of the job he and state gov- difficult (and expensive) to get people to ernment are doing in overseeing take phone surveys. the distribution of the coronavirus PPIC’s response rate in its latest vaccines to the public. survey was about 5% for landline calls

In addition, only about half (47%) and 3% for cellphones (although for have a great deal or some trust in those in the sample who had participated the way the governor and state in a prior survey it was higher — 44% for government are setting the rules landlines and 25% for cells). when issuing stay-at-home orders In addition, pollsters determine who or setting guidelines for business is and who is not a registered voter (or a to follow to slow the spread of the likely voter) by asking questions responvirus, with majorities describing dents may or may not answer truthfully, them as inconsistent (62%), con- like: fusing (60%) and ineffective (53%). Are you registered to vote? What

While PPIC said: party are you registered in? How much

Assuming there will be a governor’s are you following the news? Do you plan recall election in 2021, the political to vote the next election? wildcard is the status of COVID-19 Every pollster has their own comin California. bination of questions to try to make

In the January PPIC Survey, about half of likely voters say that

COVID-19 is the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on in 2021.

Currently, Governor Newsom has mixed reviews for his handling of this issue (50% approve, 47% disapprove). And less than three in ten give the state government an excellent or good rating for its handling of the

COVID-19 vaccine distribution.

In contrast, seven in ten approve of the way that the pandemic is being handled by Joe Biden in his early days of presidential leadership.

Deep in the Weeds

So, what are the key differences between these two surveys, much deconstructed and dissected in political circles, both produced by very fine pollsters? sure they distinguish who is and who is not a voter, but it’s as much art as it is science.

In addition, some people are so suspicious of authorities, institutions and researchers they won’t ever participate in a survey, even when the call is from the Public Policy Institute of California and not some “partisan” or egghead caller like, say, the University of California Berkeley.

IGS, on the other hand, can’t afford the huge cost of live surveys (for the most part) and so has turned to online polling, with sophisticated abilities to target and engage voters in the actual voter file from the California Secretary of State.

But they have to invite about 190,000 voters to participate to get a sample of 10,000 voters. And they can only invite voters who have listed an email address, which is now about half the registered voters.

So, their effective response rate is also about 5%, and it’s a pre-screened group of people who have listed an email address and will go to the trouble of filling out the survey online.

They have the same problem that live calling has of Trumpistas, who don’t want to participate at all so their views can’t even be given weight to represent their share of the population.

Moreover, online surveys can’t claim to represent a random sample of voters because not every voter has an equal chance of being surveyed.

“Recall” page 10