Retirees, Forget The 4% Withdrawal Rule!

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Retirees, Forget The 4% Withdrawal Rule! Timothy Lofton 3 min read · Sep 9, 2022 Listen Share More Get unlimited access to all of Medium for less than $1/week. Become a member Open in app Search Medium 11

Let’ssayyou’reoneoftheluckyonesandhaveaccumulated$1millioninyour401(k) retirementaccountafteryearsofworking.But,likemany,maybethepandemichas madeyousecondguessbeingintheofficeandyouremployerispushingolder employeesalong.Soyou’vedecidedtoretire.

Howcanyousafelywithdrawthe$1millionandnotrunoutofmoneybeforeyoudie?

You’reprobablyconsideringtwomainoptions:Liveforthemomentandcashoutthe moneyasneeded,orcutbackandconservetoensureitlastsfortherestofyourand yourpartner’slife.Bothdecisionsarewrong.

BeforeItellyouwhattodo,rememberthatthismoneymanagementproblemis uniquelyAmerican.Otherrichnationsdon’trequiretheirelderstomakehigh-stakes, complexfinancialdecisions.Todoitrightyouneedtomakeassumptionsaboutwhen youandyourspousewilldieandhowfinancialmarketswillfare.Nowonderresearch showseldersarelessdepressedhavingaguaranteedstreamofincomeworth$1 millionthanhaving$1milliontomanage.

Butlet’ssayyouaren’tthetypicalAmerican.Notonlydoyouhave$1million,butyou beatthe30%chanceofbeingincognitivedeclineafterage70andthe35%riskof Alzheimer’safterage85.Andyouwereabletoevadefinancialpredation,though peopleover80experiencethehighestaveragelosstofinancialfraudofanyagegroup.

Thestandardruleofthumbhasgenerallybeentodrawdown4%ofyourtotalassets everyyear.Formanyyears,financialplannersuseda1994studyshowing4%wasasafe withdrawalrateifyouhadaconservativeportfoliowithlowfeesandwantedacushion fortheworst-casescenario.

Itwaswonderfultohaveonespecificnumber;itgaveretireessomeconfidenceinthe abyssoftheunknown.

Butnow,theonlyrealruleisthatblindlystickingwith4%isdangerous.Mostexperts agreeit’snolongersafetojustassumethesamehistoricreturnsforstocksandbonds, so3%or3.5%withdrawalratesmightbebetter.Futureinflation,especiallyforout-ofpockethealth-carecosts,mayalsomakethe4%withdrawalratetoohigh.Still,there maybeothersforwhom3%istoolow noonewantstodiepoorwith$25,000ina shoe.

Someadviserslikeannuities,butprivateannuitymarketsaretricky.Thebestannuityis todelayclaimingSocialSecurityevenifyouhavetotapintoyourretirementassets. SocialSecurityisinflation-indexed(agreatdealinthefaceoffuturepricehikes)and thepaymentslastuntiltheendofyourandyourspouses’lives.

TappingintoretirementassetsanddelayingSocialSecuritycanresultinanannual8% increaseininflation-indexedSocialSecuritybenefits.Ifyouwaituntil,say70,you’ll havemoreSocialSecurityincome thenyoucanwithdrawcloserto5%andliveitup alittlebecauseyou’llhavefeweryearstodrawtheassetsdown.

Ifyoureallywantsomekindofguidanceonhowmuchtowithdraw,BostonCollege retirementeconomistAliciaMunnellsuggestsfollowingtheInternalRevenueService’s requiredminimumdistributions(RMD)rule.TheIRSrequiresyoutostarttakingyour taxdeferredretirementmoneyoutattheageof72(or70.5ifyouwerebornbeforeJuly 1,1949).Atage72,theIRSrequiresyoutowithdrawabout3.9%andatage90theRMD is8.8%.

Congresswantsyoutospenditwhileyou’realive,sincethetaxbreakwasn’tintended foryourheirs.What’sbrilliantabouttheIRSRMDminimumdistributionsruleisthatit adjuststheamountaccordingtoyourlifeexpectancy.Themathisdoneforyouandthe requiredminimumdistributionisautomatic.

Finally,whileitmayfeeloverwhelmingtofigureouthowtomakeyour$1millionlast, it’safortunateproblemtohave.Themedianwealthforpeopleinthebottomhalfofthe wealthdistributionisabout$300,000,withmostofthattiedupinahouse.Ifthehouse weresoldandtheold4%rulewereapplied,retireeswouldtypicallywindupwith $1,600amonthfortherestoftheirlivesassumingaveragelifeexpectancy andthey stillwouldhavetopayrent.Clearly,theAmericansystemneedsareboot.

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