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Country Report: Germany CR Country Report: Germany
A TISSUE POWERHOUSE OF CAREFUL EXPANSION, SLOW GROWTH, AND LEADING COMPANIES SUPPLYING A DEMANDING HOME CONSUMER MARKET AND A GLOBAL INDUSTRY Cost and quality improvements the focus for the country which helped pioneer pulp and paper, and continues that role today.
G
ermany is a manufacturing and technological powerhouse known for its precision manufacturing technology. The country played a vital role in developing pulp and paper technology at the birth of the industry. This role has continued into the 21st century as Germany is home to many companies supplying tissue production and converting technologies all over the world. Germany has Europe’s largest economy and ranks fifth in the world, along with being the second-most populous nation (after Russia). The German population trend is displayed in Figure 1 and shows (line) about 81 million people in 2007, dropping slightly to 80.4 million in 2011 before climbing to about 83 million in 2020. The World Factbook shows an estimated population growth of -0.215% in 2021. This is probably difficult to estimate as the Covid-19 pandemic has slowed birth rates and immigration in many countries. Figure 1 also shows the Real GDP/capita trend (2010 base) (bar) with general slow growth up to 2020 as the pandemic struck. Initial indicators show an uptick in activity in 2021. Germany has seen consumer inflation cycling from a high of 2.8% in 2008 to lows
of 0.2% in 2009 as the Great Recession hit, which can be seen in Figure 2. Current inflation appears to be dropping from 1.8% to 0.3% as the pandemic hit. However, it is too soon to tell how the recovery period will unfold. Figure 2 (line) also shows the significant downward trend in unemployment from about 8.6% in 2007 to 3.5% in 2019. There was a slight uptick in 2020 but there have been good indicators in 2021 so far. Germany is running about 235.6 active Covid-19 cases per 1 million population as of mid-July 2021. This compares well against most of the region, as shown in the heat map in Figure 3. The new waves of Delta and possibly Lambda variants moving through the world’s populations make it impossible to predict potential demand or supply effects through the end of 2021 as the unvaccinated have increased risk and vaccinated see mild or asymptomatic illnesses. Germany has been careful with tissue machine expansions through the study period of 2007 to 2024 (announced). Figure 4 shows that there have been two new machines installed and two removed, with no further changes expected through 2024. These new machines are expected to be
Source: FisherSolve Next ©2021 Fisher International, Inc.
Figure 1: Germany Population and Real GDP/Capita Trend
Bruce Janda Senior Consultant, Fisher International larger than the machines removed for a net capacity increase. Germany’s tissue business is active in trade, with imports slightly exceeding exports over the past 13 years. Figure 5 shows the imports trend and top eight producing countries. Most of this trade is centred on neighbouring producing countries of Austria, France, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, and Sweden. The top producers and the export list are used to develop the Tissue Making comparison set used in the later sections of this report. Germany’s tissue exports are shown in Figure 6. Many of the same countries on
Source: FisherSolve Next ©2021 Fisher International, Inc.
Figure 2: Germany Inflation and Unemployment Trend Tissue World Magazine | July/August 2021
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