Can American farmers fill the needs of its leaf customers?

Heavy rains beginning in September wreaked havoc on this Bluegrass field and many others in Kentucky.

Can American farmers fill the needs of its leaf customers?

RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA—The pressing question in American farming circles as November began was, will this country be able to fill the needs of buyers who depend on it?

The weather in tobacco areas from mid-September on made this a very realistic question. Heavy and persistent rains in Virginia and western North Carolina turned tobacco fields in those areas into a muck.

The results were even worse for eastern North and South Carolina when Hurricane Florence blew in in mid-September, drowning some tobacco and whipping much of the rest with savage winds.

Farmers were only arguably recovered when Hurricane Matthew arrived in early October. The general damage again was mainly in the eastern Carolinas

but since most of the tobacco in those areas was harvested or abandoned by that time, Matthew had little effect there. But the heavy rains it created proved to be a problem in the N.C. and Virginia Piedmont, where tobacco was still in the field.

A report on the effect of the storms of later 2018.

FLUE-CURED—The estimates of loss in N.C. vary widely among the various observers, with the leader of the N.C. Tobacco Growers Association placing it at 128 million pounds. But as the weeks padded that was generally regarded as a “top” figure, with 100 to 110 million pounds seeming a more realistic projection.

Almost all of that came in the Eastern Belt and most was the result of Florence. But Michael had a catastrophic effect in the Piedmont, where some flue-cured was still being harvested on October 4.

An auctioneer described how even where tobacco survived the hurricane, the production calendar was jumbled badly buy the rain.

“On late-planted tobacco, we saw some harvested just once, then all the rest was stripped,” said Dennis White, owner of the Old Belt Tobacco Sales, which operates a warehouse near Winston-Salem. That harvesting schedule did not contribute to best quality.

But at his auction, he still got good sales, and all leaf offered found a home. But the character of the leaf offered definitely changed, with much more than usual graded as Smoking Leaf or H leaf. “H5K is a grade we see a lot,” White said.

The price did not go up substantially after the hurricanes, he said. “It falls in the $1.50 to $1.65 range,” he said in late October. The practical top has been around $1.85.

In the Virginia Southside, excessive rainfall began in late August and continued when storms began to amass in September and October.

Up to that point, the crop had been estimated at 50 to 52 million pounds of flue-crop. “I would guess that we lost 10 to 12 percent of that total,” said David Reed, Extension tobacco agronomist.

“In the eastern (segment of the tobacco-growing) area, the loss is probably in the area of five percent, but might have approached 15 to 20 percent in some areas of Pittsylvania and Halifax Counties.” A few growers made their contracted pounds, but most will fall short, Reed said.

Although South Carolina experienced perhaps the worst of the winds of the two hurricanes, they didn’t suffer much damage to their tobacco, because very little tobacco remained in the field when Florence blew through.

Area Extension agronomy agent William Hardee estimated that only 200 to 400 acres still had leaf to be harvested at that time, almost all of it tip leaf. He predicted that none of it would be salvageable.

BURLEY—The burley crop in Kentucky took a significant hit from rains in September, said Bob Pearce, Kentucky Extension tobacco specialist.

“Statewide. I would estimate losses of 20 to 30 percent. In the bluegrass region, the losses may have been up to 40 percent in the bluegrass region.”

He thinks burley production for Kentucky lost 20 to 30 million pounds and might be down to a total of around 80 million pounds.”

Uncharacteristically heavy rains Southern Ohio in August, September and the first half of October left burley tobacco in a “mess.” Some farms in Adams County reported around 18 inches of late-season rain, said David Dugan, Ohio Extension Educator. “Several acres were under water as result of heavy rains over the Labor Day weekend. Some producers harvested less than half of their crop as a result.

The Gallia County area is probably 60-70 percent harvested—the rest was lost. The quality of what was harvested was impacted. “But I am not sure to what extent,” he said. “I would think Ohio is looking at a minimum of a 50 percent loss in volume (because of the late season weather).”

But burley in Tennessee was not seriously affected by the rains that struck Kentucky late in the season.

“There was a small percentage affected. maybe five percent,” said Eric Walker, Tennessee Extension tobacco specialist. Overall, the crop turned out pretty good. A small percentage of the tobacco was hit late with significant foliar leaf spot diseases, mainly frogeye leaf spot and some target spot.”

Rather than the weather, factors other than the weather have significantly reduced the size of the burley crop this year.

“I expect acreage to be down 35-40 percent from last year, and that may be a little conservative,” said Walker. “Estimates of pounds are always hard, but I think we will have somewhere around 12 million pounds.”

DARK—Finally, the dark-producing area of western Kentucky and Tennessee perhaps had the best fortune of any of the states in September and October. It avoided almost completely the storms that damaged burley the crop in the bluegrass area.

“We have a good crop,” said Andy Bailey, Kenturcky Extension dark tobacco specialist. He thinks there will be around 56 million pounds of dark fired and around 19 million pounds of dark air cured.