Ahead MortgageLooking Market in Review Economic Release Indicator and Time Week of April Date 9, 2012 3-year Treasury Note Auction
Consensus Estimate
Tuesday, April 10, 1:15 pm, et
Market Comment
None
10-year Treasury Wednesday, April 11, None Note Auction 1:15 pm, et Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher helping mortgage interest rates improve. Rates Fed “Beige Wednesday, April 11, None were initially pushed significantly higher following Book” 2:00 pm, et the Fed minutes Wednesday. The Fed basically put on hold any prospect of additional stimulus for Weekly Jobless April 12,argued that 350k now. In addition, Thursday, some members “the Claims 8:30 am, et
Analysis Volume 19, Issue 15 Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand current highly accommodative may lead to lower mortgage rates.stance of monetary policy over the medium run could erode the stability of inflation expectations and risk higher Important. Fortunately, Notes will be rates auctioned. inflation.” were Strong able todemand recover may lead to lower mortgage rates. the earlier losses and then some following the employment report Friday morning. The payrolls Important. This reportthan details current economic component wasFed weaker expected which sent conditions interest across therates US. lower. Signs of Mortgage weakness may lead mortgage interest to lower rates. the week better by about 1/4 of a rates finished discount point. Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Producer Price Index
Thursday, April 12, 8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2%
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
Trade Data
Thursday, April 12, 8:30 am, et
$49b deficit
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction
Thursday, April 12, 1:15 pm, et
None
Consumer Price Index
Friday, April 13, 8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2%
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, April 13, 10:00 am, et
75
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index is widely accepted as the most important measure of inflation. The CPI is a measure of prices at the consumer level for a fixed basket of goods and services. The National Statistics Office and the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics of the Department of Agriculture collect price data for the computation of the CPI. Since it is an index number, it compares the level of prices to a base period. By comparing the level of the index at two different points in time, analysts can determine how much prices have risen in that period. Unlike other measures of inflation, which only factor domestically produced Provided by: DebbieShoemake goods; CPIreserved. takesMortgage into account imported © 2012,the all rights Market Information goods This is contained important due to the toeverServices,as Inc.well. The Information herein is believed be accurate; however no representations warranties are written or increasing reliance of the orUS economy upon implied. imported goods. Analysts primarily focus on the
Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. core rate of the CPI which factors out the more volatile food and energy prices. High oil prices remain a concern from an inflation perspective. Record debt levels continue to weigh heavily upon the financial markets as well. Inflation, real or perceived, erodes the value of fixed income securities such as mortgage bonds. Rates have a better chance of falling with lower than expected CPI figures.