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Co-Publisher

Francesca Ash francesca@totallicensing.com

Co-Publisher

Jerry Wooldridge jerry@totallicensing.com

Editorial Director

Rebecca Ash becky@totallicensing.com

Office Manager

Helen Bowerman helen@totallicensing.com

Japan Agent

Roger Berman, ZenWorks rmb@zenworks.jp

With thanks to those who contributed to this issue

TOTAL LICENSING LTD

4 Wadhurst Business Park Faircrouch Lane, Wadhurst, East Sussex TN5 6PT UK Tel: +44 (0) 1892 782220 Fax: +44 (0) 1892 782226 www.totallicensing.com helen@totallicensing.com

© 2023 Total Licensing Ltd

Printed in England.

All illustrations are reproduced by permission of their owners. No part of this magazine may be copied or quoted without permission from the Publishers first. Total Licensing Ltd does not warrant or assume any legal liability for the accuracy or legality of contents, images or advertisements submitted to the magazine. Opinions of the contributing writers are their own and do not reflect the opinion of Total Licensing Ltd. Welcome to the first 2023 edition of Total Licensing. Whilst over the past couple of years, we have been plagued (quite literally) by COVID and all that it entailed, this year sees a different set of issues, some as an aftermath of the pandemic and others as a by-product of the terrible conflict in Ukraine, brought about by the Russian invasion. The cost of living, in virtually all major economies has spiked dangerously. Consumers are poorer as a result which filters down to their buying power. Inflation is running at over 10% in the UK and 8% in the USA and Germany. But the UK’s cost of living crisis might look fairly mild compared to other countries. Its inflation rate was 10.7% in November 2022, compared to 12.6% in Italy, 16.% in Poland and over 20% in Hungary and Estonia. Even China, which has been largely immune to the pressures felt by much of the world, had inflation grow to nearly 3% during 2022, not helped by a continuous round of draconian lockdowns aimed at curbing the spread of COVID.

Of course, all of this means that consumers are concentrating on essentials before anything else. And that, of course, has an impact on licensed merchandise.

The Holiday season was better than expected generally (which isn’t saying a great deal if you consider the levels of expectation). However, whilst retail sales jumped by around 7% in the UK in December, this was driven by higher prices rather than consumers buying more. In terms of the online/offline split, in the US it is estimated that around 70% of Americans are shopping online now – an increase of 14% from 2020. This accounts for nearly 15% of total sales. In the UK, whilst online shopping stands at over 25%, this figure fell slightly during the Holiday season – largely as a result of postal strikes. In Germany 29% of Germans shop at least once a week on line and the German e-commerce market stands at around 99.1 billion Euros – behind the UK but ahead of France.

As we enter the first quarter of what everybody agrees will be a difficult year, of course we are now into Toy Fair season with Hong Kong, London and Nuremberg fairs taking place in the first few weeks of the year.

It will be interesting to see how the toy industry copes with the global issues. Last year, the main topics of conversation were inventory and the supply chains. This year value for money is on everybody’s lips. Overall, the global toy market achieved a value of around 102 billion USD last year and is expected to grow by a little under 5% a year reaching 135 billion USD by 2028.

Key markets in this are the US and Europe – particularly the US who have introduced initiatives to reduce imports from China and, therefore, should see their domestic industry boosted. China, of course, is one of the largest producers and exporters of toys. Internally, there is high demand for educational toys and the general growth in China is expected to propel the growth in other APAC territories. Asia Pacific is expected to show the fastest growth in upcoming years compared with other regional markets. This will also be helped by India who are increasing import duty and pushing the growth of their domestic toy industry.

So where does that leave the licensing industry? Actually experts predict that the market for movie, comic, TV and other licensed toys, including action figures, is expected to bolster market growth. STEM toys will continue to be popular as will building block-based toys such as LEGO.

By the time this issue is out, Hong Kong will be a memory and we’ll be gearing up for London and Nuremberg toy fairs. Total Licensing will, of course, be there with a keen eye on what’s looking promising for 2023 and beyond. Don’t forget to pick up your printed issue of Total Licensing at the shows. And if you see us in the aisles, do stop us to say hello. We’d love to see you.