31 AVAITION Flying High from

AVAITION

Flying High From 2022-2023

by Dimitri Laspas

Then the global pandemic arrived and overnight everything stopped.

As we finally seem to be coming to terms with a ‘new norm’ in many aspects of our lives, this too applies to flying all over the world.

Over the past year and a half, airlines, airports, and all the support services linked to the running of the sector has seen massive losses, both in terms of business, production, supply chain and jobs.

You may well ask when will it all get back to normal?

The simple answer is not yet. It will be a very gradual recovery and one that is not set to begin in earnest until 2022-2023.

IATA, the International Air Transport Association sees the aviation sector will still suffer negative losses during 2021 with more positive forecasts into 2022 and towards 3rd quarter of 2023.

Already for the first half of 2021, with continued Covid variants spreading in many areas of the world, countries are still keeping borders closed and restriction travel for citizens in order to contain the situation.

Summer bookings for July and August 2021 are approximately 78% below February 2019 figures, but there ‘could’ be a surge in last minute bookings if countries lift restrictions in time for more open travel to begin.

Many nations are still pushing heavily for their populations to be vaccinated as quickly as possible, especially in the northern hemisphere, as this would allow for a quicker re-opening of borders and travel over the summer season. However, this still sees demand at just 38% of 2019 levels.

For airlines, the level of funding required to just keep operational in these limited times of travel, is causing them to literally burn money! If variants spread and cases rise, then governments would not hesitate to restrict, yet again, travel through the peak northern summer travel season. Already 2021 is looking to be far more tough that previously expected and decisions to open destinations keep changing creating huge hesitation among traveller, who are desperate to spend time on a holiday after 14 months of frustration, anxiety and depression due to the never ending pandemic.

If more restrictions are put in place then airlines will again require significant financial aid from governments until the crisis ends. With a properly running airline industry, it can help energise the economic recovery from COVID-19.

Airlines and all the support systems need to be ready the moment governments allow for more normal travel to resume. This will mean three initiatives critical:

Planning: To get planes in the sky again, takes time to service the aircraft and plan to get planes where they are needed. The re-opening needs to happen in an orderly manner.

Here in the UK the ‘roadmap’ out of the crisis has given all companies a framework with which to work with based on all scientific information supporting the roadmap recommendations.

Governments and the aviation industry need to think one step ahead. Greater partnerships between airlines need to continue as they have done successfully for decades; but now it is even more essential! Passengers can be confident that their health status will be shared with relevant authorities, protecting, them and other passengers and crew. This is where the digitalisation of data is key to keep it up to date so there are no delays; manual systems will not cope with the necessary checks and proof required to travel.

The industry cannot risk delays once it starts up again –otherwise everyone has failed.

Global Standards: With greater vaccination programmes and testing capacity expanded, the development of global standards in terms of recording tests and vaccines is crucial. If each country is using different schemes, software and methods, the delays and misinformation will be rife. To monitor greater numbers of returning passengers needs a simple, quick and easy method.

For sure, many nations can now see a light at the end of the tunnel. It is key for that light to turn into a shining bright sun for holidays and business travel to begin again and so airlines and governments need to work hand in hand to make it happen and for Covid-19 to be something we live with but that it does not dictate us.

Africa, Americas, Asia and Europe

During the pandemic, global business travel spending dropped by 60% year-on-year to UK£360 billion, while leisure travel spending dropped by 50% compared to preCovid-19levels.

Despite new health and safety measures being implemented by hotels and resorts, and a slow reopening in the 2nd half of 2020, the 2nd wave of the pandemic brought the sector further to its knees, seeing 83% of business travel companies lay off employees and 74% cutting pay.

In 2019 the USA had the highest business tourism spending globally. Overall US expenditure on business trips by domestic and international travellers reached approximately UK£254 billion. The EU and China were next with approximately UK£173 billion and UK£128 billion, respectively. Covid-19 changed that. In 2019, the global business travel spending hit an alltime high of UK£932 billion. After Covid-19 ground things to a halt, this figure dropped by UK£566 billion.

Domestic tourism is being seen by most countries as a way to rebuild business in view of the possibility of travel restrictions being reestablished at any moment.

Leisure Travel, the sectors largest, saw huge revenue losses in 2020. Between 2010 and 2019, global leisure travel spending doubled to nearly UK£3.4 trillion. After Covid-19 hit, market revenues plunged 50% year-on-year to UK£1.6 trillion in 2020.

It is expected that recovery will take years. Even with a projected growth of 54% year on year with the combined revenues of the hotels, cruises, package holidays, and private holiday rentals, that will still be 26% less than in 2019.

2022 is looking better for sure, with a forecast for UK£478 billion in revenues, but still UK£52 billion below pre-Covid-19 figures. 2025 is now being seen as the realistic prediction of travel and tourism to be close to 2019 figures.

BELIZE AND BARBADOS OPEN FOR INTERNATIONAL CRUISES

A 2nd Seabourn cruise ship will begin operations in the home port of Bridgetown, Barbados, from 18th July, while in the Harvest Caye port in Belize, sailings will resume on 9th August.

The August date will see the Norwegian Joy, (Norwegian Cruise Line) return to Harvest Caye, after leaving 2 days earlier from Montego Bay (Jamaica), which will be be its base port from which to make cruises through the Western Caribbean, considering the USA has not opened up its ports yet.

Vaccination is key for all crews and passengers alike. Norwegian Cruise Line has launched the Sailsafe –Save Safe- programme, which covers warranties on its ships sailing and on land. Crew and passengers are required mandatory vaccination before boarding.

Renovations on-board many ships have included upgrades to medical grade air filtration systems, new layouts of shared areas to meet social distancing, new and better medical facilities and disinfection stations.

For Belize, the presence of cruise ships again marks the reactivation of its economy. During the pandemic, many cruise companies realise the importance of their ports of call are for locals and in order to help reduce suffering have made donations of money as well as food to the population, especially in areas where the economy has suffered strongly.

Carnival Corporation's ultra-luxury cruise ship Seabourn will begin sailings again with new itineraries from Bridgetown, Barbados. Seabourn Odyssey will set sail on 7-day cruises from Barbados to southern Caribbean destinations, including Antigua, the British Virgin Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Lucia, St. Maarten and St. Kitts. A 14-day option is also on offer which combines both 7-day itineraries between the Windward and Leeward Islands in the Caribbean Sea.

NEW YORK CITY FULLY REOPENS ON 1st JULY

New York City will reopen completely on 1st July removing all Covid-19 restrictions. This means full capacity in bars and restaurants will be allowed as well as at other indoor places like gyms, arena’s theatres, etc.

New York, USA

Prague Airport, CzechTourism and Prague City Tourism see tourism as the focus for the economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic, and will fuel economic growth. With this in mind, the expansion of inbound tourism is a focus while promoting the development and support of sustainable tourism. Tourism needs to resume as soon as possible but responsibly and supported by the resumption and development of air connections with Prague which mainly depends on inbound tourism; accounting for about 70% of Prague airport operations.

RUSSIAN TOURISTS KEEN TO SPEND SUMMER HOLIDAYS IN GREECE

Russian tour operators are keen to bring up to 300,000 Russian tourists to Greece this year, as long as travel restrictions between the two countries are lifted. Greece continues to be a high demand destination for Russian citizens.

The key to this happening will be for air traffic between the countries to resume without restrictions. Many Russian tour operators are ready to charter flights to Crete from both Moscow and Yekaterinburg as well as to Corfu from Moscow, Rostov-on-Don and Kazan.

Tour operator packages will also include scheduled flights to Athens and travel packages for resorts in Halkidiki, the Peloponnese as well as the islands of Zakynthos and Santorini.

Greece is set to begin reopening up tourism from 14th May with a gradual lifting of restrictions for specific countries, such as Russia. Tourists from Russia will be able to visit Greece without restrictions, without quarantine, as long as they have been vaccinated, or have recovered from the virus (have antibodies), or have a negative PCR result from a test performed less 3 days before the departure date.

ARGENTINA, CLOSES BORDERS UNTIL MAY 21

As a 2nd wave spreads across Latin America, Argentina is keeping its borders closed for tourism until 21 May.

Flights from Brazil, Chile, Mexico, the UK, Northern Ireland and India will continue to be suspended.

Airlines with passengers and crew and anyone entering by land, both nationals and foreigners, will be required to have a negative result of the real time PCR test or a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), whose validity will be 7 days after it was done.

The new rules also apply to international maritime and river passenger transport, which for the moment will continue with two weekly international ships.

Travellers must also ensure they have sufficient health insurance as well as be able to confirm where they had been in the pre 14 days prior to re-entry to the country.