Burdekin Basin Water Plan Submission

Burdekin Basin Water Plan Submission

Burdekin Basin Water Plan Submission

1. Townsville Enterprise

Townsville Enterprise is the peak economic development and destination management organisation for North Queensland. We aim to attract major government and private investment to the region encompassing the Local Government Areas of Townsville, Palm Island, Burdekin Shire, Hinchinbrook Shire and Charters Towers Region.

For more than 30 years, Townsville Enterprise has played a critical role in leading the economic progress for the region through strong political advocacy, investment attraction, tourism development and by promoting Townsville North Queensland as a place to visit, invest and live.

We are a not-for-profit organisation predominantly funded by our 400 members (businesses in North Queensland) and local government.

Our purpose is to secure the future of Townsville North Queensland.

Water security, next to affordable energy, is a key concern for our members and therefore we are taking a keen interest in the Burdekin Basin Water Plan review.

2. Executive Summary

The new Burdekin Basin Water Plan must address long-term, sustainable water planning and resource management and will need to be flexible to allow for the development of our region into the future.

Since the establishment of the Burdekin Falls Dam in 1984, the population of North Queensland has almost doubled and is set to grow by a further 100,000 people in the next decade. The investment pipeline for committed and proposed projects for the region is currently forecast to be $64.9 billion with 68,136 additional jobs. These major projects increase the demand on the region’s water supply by increasing the need for water to support population growth and for industrial use.

Water planning, in times of economic and population growth, as well as combatting the impacts of climate change, means it can never stand still and must be a flexible tool to achieve the best outcome. The main aim of the revised Burdekin Basin Water Plan must be to create a plan that provides North Queensland with a long-term, sustainable, economic, environmental and social future.

Water needs to be actively governed and the new Plan must be well informed on demand, environmental and social impacts - not only in the existing known part of Burdekin system but with a holistic view of the overall system Several business cases and feasibility studies have been developed for the region and the insights and information must be taken into consideration when developing the new Burdekin Basin Water Plan

The Plan must address the impacts of climate change as rainfalls become less predictable in the future. Significant and long-term water storage will be vital moving forward. The Burdekin is also characterised by an extreme variation of annual rainfall between years, with wet years regularly followed by a series of El Niño-induced drought years (CSIRO 2002). The effects of climate change on water supply are high and becoming increasingly important as a factor for any future water planning activity.

The Great Barrier Reef is Queensland’s greatest natural asset and must be protected. The Burdekin Basin has been identified as the largest contributor of fine sediment to the Great Barrier Reef in the Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan. As protection of the Reef increases and the pressures from climate change increases, the creation of more sustainable farming options upstream means that agriculture can be moved away from coastal areas. This will release pressure on the Reef and improve agricultural resilience By developing high agricultural cropping and horticulture in the Upper Burdekin, sediment and nutrient loads delivered to the downstream Burdekin Falls Dam may be reduced through world leading land management and agricultural practices. A new Burdekin Basin Water Plan which takes a holistic view of the river system will encourage agriculture away from the Reef and provide for new and emerging industry supply to meet the needs of Australia.

Townsville North Queensland is on the cusp of major growth and development for both existing and emerging industries. The region has benefitted from the stability of its core industries including Defence, logistics, mining, education and health and has expanded its horizons to include emerging industries such as renewable energy, hydrogen critical minerals processing and manufacturing, agritech and aquaculture. The Plan must understand the long-term demand case for the entire Burdekin catchment and must allow for priority allocation to existing and new industries in broader North Queensland. The Plan must take into consideration that industry will require long-term water security all year round to make the required investments.

The transition towards a green economy requires improvements to the water environment without harming prospects for existing economic development and population growth. This implies not only making social improvements compatible with the preservation of water resources but also finding new and innovative opportunities for economic growth and social development through sustainable water management Over the past two years, Townsville North Queensland has made incredible progress in the development of the emerging hydrogen industry. Several projects have already commenced construction for green hydrogen production in our region. This industry will grow as the drive for hydrogen exports from global trading partners increase. The region is in a prime position to take advantage of the green hydrogen revolution, but large quantities of raw water will be required for the emerging hydrogen industry over the next decade in North Queensland.

Engagement, and consultation with Traditional Owners is an important component of any development process in our country. Allocation of water to areas for growth and development in agriculture or industry including the Upper Burdekin must not only address agricultural and economic development related service needs but also the needs of the Traditional Owners. A holistic Plan, which considers the opportunity in the Upper Burdekin will provide much needed opportunity and employment for Traditional Owners from this region.

To develop the most effective and efficient water strategy, government must understand the economic demand, population growth, environmental and social needs of the entire river system. The aim must be to use every drop of water within the regulated environmental flows wisely. Currently, most of the water allocations are in the Lower Burdekin. To unleash the unused or unallocated buckets of water allocations that have sat unused and underutilised for decades, further investigations and reviews in the Great Barrier Reef and the Lower and Upper Burdekin area will be required to understand what a long-term water development strategy needs to look like for the future of North Queensland

3. The Burdekin Burdekin Basin and Land Use

Since the first small paddock of sugar cane was planted on the Burdekin flood plain in 1875, the area just south of Townsville, has grown to become the largest sugar producing region in the country –supporting 2,579 jobs. Every year, 1.7 million tonnes of refined sugar are exported through the Port of Townsville globally

The Lower Burdekin’s cane industry, which is spread across approximately 80,000 hectares and worth over half a billion in sugar exports per year has become the agricultural life blood of regional North Queensland.

North of the Burdekin River, water for irrigation is supplied by SunWater through the Burdekin Haughton water supply scheme, which includes supply from the Burdekin Falls Dam.

To the south, Lower Burdekin Water (LBW) delivers irrigation water from the largest replenished coastal aquifer in the country via underground bores.

Since the establishment of the Burdekin Dam in 1984, the population in North Queensland has almost doubled and is set to grow by a further 100,000 people in the next decade. Industry and population growth, new infrastructure such as the Haughton pipeline, increased globally funded demand, together with the threats of climate change, will result in more challenges about how we manage our water supply going forward.

Across the Lower Burdekin region, water is distributed through a complex network of weirs, balancing storages, water recycling pits, pump stations, channels, waterways, lagoons and groundwater recharge pits. While many investigations have been completed to fully understand the complexity of this area and the impact of additional water storage required, further works will be needed to ensure long-term water security can be provided to existing water users and to allow for increasing demand in the future within environmental flows.

Almost 90% of land use within the Burdekin Basin is for pastoral grazing, approximately 5% for conservation areas and natural environments and 1% of the region contains irrigated agriculture, primarily associated with sugarcane farming and horticultural products around Ayr. Mining is also important in the region and makes up approximately 0.1% of the land area (Bureau of Meteorology, 2019)

Urban and industrial demand for water is forecast to rise across the region over the coming decades, driven by population growth and industrial growth. Additionally, water security for these customers is of increasing concern because of ongoing changes in climatic conditions and resulting changes in rainfall patterns.

Upper Burdekin

Queensland Agricultural Land Audit report identified significant areas of land suitable for irrigated agriculture. Charters Towers accounts for 6.7% of Queensland’s total agricultural production by value, while covering only 4.6% of total area of the state.

The upper Burdekin currently relies on cattle grazing.

• grazing native vegetation (97.8% of total irrigation zones area)

• irrigated cropping (0.4% of total irrigation zones area)

• water storage – intensive use/farm dams (0.02% of total irrigation zones area).

Land Suitability and Soils

The Dalrymple Shire (the Shire), situated in the Upper Burdekin catchment typically comprises 45% cover of sands to sandy loams, 44% cover of loamy surfaced soils (sandy clay loams to clay loams), 9% cover of clay soils and approximately 1% rocky outcrop comprising basalt flow lines and sandstone outcrops.

The region of the Upper Burdekin relies on beef cattle production and, to a much lesser extent, dryland and irrigated crops. Grazing is the major land use in this region, covering about 94% of the total Burdekin catchment area. Cattle numbers and beef productivity vary greatly across the catchment.

The Queensland Agricultural Land Audit (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 2013), identified the following potential agricultural activities suitable for the land in the Upper Burdekin:

• annual horticulture (central irrigation zone)

• intensive livestock (central irrigation zone)

• native forestry (all areas)

• pasture production (all areas)

• perennial horticulture (some parts of all areas).

Climate and Rainfall

Stream flow in the Burdekin Basin is highly seasonal, with 82% of flow occurring from January to March. It varies considerably from year to year and generally corresponds with rainfall. Rainfall distribution is also strongly seasonal, with 70-85% occurring in November to April Significant and long-term water storage is vital moving forward as rainfalls will become less predictable in the future due to climate change. The Burdekin is also characterised by an extreme variation of annual rainfall between years, with wet years regularly followed by a series of El Niño-induced drought years (CSIRO 2002). The effects of climate change on water supply are high and becoming an increasingly important as a factor for any future water planning activity.

The Queensland Department of Environment and Science (DES) website presents information on the modelled impacts that climate change will have on temperature, evaporation, and rainfall in the Burdekin River catchment under two future climate change scenarios, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The two scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, represent different future concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and their impact on climate change projections. RCP 4.5 represents concentrations of greenhouses that limit global temperature rise to 2°C. RCP8.5 represents concentrations of greenhouse gases continuing current emissions trajectories.

Under the RCP4.5 scenario, median evaporation would increase by 4% by the year 2050 and median rainfall would reduce by 1%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario evaporation would increase by 6%, whilst rainfall would reduce by 7%. The results in Table 3-29 show a reduction in flow of 2% under RCP4.5 and reduction of 11% under RCP8.5.

Considering these forecasted changes, the crop and water balance models were updated to assess the impact on water demands and water supply. Crop water demand would increase by 1% and the area that can be irrigated by a given storage volume would reduce by 4%, under RCP4.5. RCP8.5 results in an increase of 9% in crop water demands and a reduction of 16% in the irrigated area.

The climate in the Townsville area could change significantly under a worst-case climate change scenario RCP8.5. This would result in higher temperatures, hotter and more frequent hot days, more intense downpours, less frequent but more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea level, more frequent sea level extremes and warmer and more acidic seas.

High climate variability is likely to remain the major factor influencing rainfall changes in the next few decades. Rainfall changes for 2070 continue to show a large amount of variability. However, there may be slight declines in spring rainfall by the end of the century. The intensity of heavy rainfall events is likely to increase. Tropical cyclones are projected to become less frequent, but with increases in the proportion of the most intense storms. This makes the requirement to capture and store water essential to service users during prolonged dry spells.

In terms of agricultural water use, increasing evapotranspiration and decreasing soil moisture has the potential to lead to an increased reliance on irrigation to maintain soil moisture levels. Changes to the likelihood and intensity of rainfall events, along with changes to intra-annual rainfall patterns would have impacts on the volume and timing of irrigation requirements. Given the trend towards high-value, perennial horticulture, any increase in the frequency of extreme droughts would have a commensurate impact on the productivity and viability of these operations without access to reliable water supplies.

Great Barrier Reef

Soil erosion is well documented within the Dalrymple Shire, including within the Upper Burdekin; typically associated with granodiorite, Burdekin alluvium and sedimentary rocks which covers one third of the Shire. In the Upper Burdekin current land practice is dominated by grazing and there is extensive gully erosion, which is delivering large volumes of sediment and associated particulate nutrients into the Burdekin River.

To reduce the potential for erosion as well as sediment and nutrient runoff, preferred irrigation areas are situated on slopes <3%, with waterway buffers ranging from 25 metres for low-order streams to 100 metres for major waterways (including the Burdekin River). Salinity is also recognised as a significant issue in the Burdekin catchment.

In the Lower Burdekin area, high rates of fertiliser application and large losses of irrigation water to waterways, wetlands and coastal ecosystems can significantly impact ecosystem health and function such as nutrient enrichment, water oxygen depletion and fish kills. Rising water tables are also evident in the Lower Burdekin irrigation areas, which can lead to water logging, increased salinity in the root zone and altered productivity.

The large water volume of Lake Dalrymple provides a buffering effect as the holding time in the lake allows for sediments (and associated particulate nutrients) to settle out of suspension before being released to the lower Burdekin River and the Great Barrier Reef. There is limited buffering of pollutant runoff from sugar cane areas of the Lower Burdekin, which flow into coastal ecosystems and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park via surface and groundwater.

The current extensive gully erosion associated with land clearing and grazing introduces large volumes of sediment into the waterways and fine sediment can travel through the system to the receiving environment which supports seagrass, mangrove and coral reef ecosystems and recreational and commercial fisheries. This has significant negative impacts on the health of the Reef. The change of agricultural practices in the Upper Burdekin will introduce higher concentration

of nutrients locally, but overall, in the system there will be a reduction in nutrients and sediment loads due to reduced water volumes.

The Commonwealth and Queensland Governments developed the Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan (Reef 2050 Plan) to provide an overarching framework to protect and manage the Great Barrier Reef to 2050. Under the Reef 2050 Plan, the Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan 2017–2022 seeks to improve the quality of water flowing from the catchments adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef. It addresses all land-based sources of water pollution including run- off from urban, industrial, and public lands but recognises that most of the pollution comes from agricultural activities.

The Burdekin Basin has been identified as the largest contributor of fine sediment to the Great Barrier Reef in the Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan. The 2025 end-of-catchment anthropogenic load reductions targets for the Burdekin Basin are 60% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), 30% for fine sediment, 30% for particulate phosphorus and 30% for particulate nitrogen.

As protection of the Reef increases, through the implementation of Reef 2050 Plan policy and increasing pressures from climate change (including rising sea levels), the creation of more sustainable farming options upstream means that agriculture can be moved away from coastal areas. This will release pressure on the Reef (particularly nutrients and pesticides) and improve agricultural resilience/food security.

By developing high agricultural cropping and horticulture in the Upper Burdekin, sediment and nutrient loads delivered to the downstream Burdekin Falls Dam may be reduced through world leading land management and agricultural practices that could be implemented in the development of the land (for example buffer strips along waterways, recycle pits, controlled nutrient application, capturing runoff for re-use, compliance with the Reef Regulations), and water consumption for the developments and evaporation from the Dam. Expanding irrigated agriculture in the upper (rather than lower) parts of the Burdekin Basin, will provide additional system buffering capacity against pollutant export to the Great Barrier Reef.

A holistic river system water plan can assist in developments which are beneficial for the Great Barrier Reef, taking into consideration environmental impacts as well encouraging development of agriculture away from the reef and provide for new and emerging industry supply to meet the needs of Australia.

To do this, foresight is required to invest into understanding the river system as a whole and how the increases for water supply can be met into the future. Further studies encompassing demand and supply addressing positive economic, environmental, and social outcomes will be required to gain a full understanding of the holistic river system from the upper reaches of the Burdekin to the Lower Burdekin and beyond to the Great Barrier Reef.

4. Need for Long-Term Water Planning for the Future Prosperity of North Queensland

Water is not only essential for meeting basic human needs like drinking water and sanitation but also to produce single commodities, industrial processes, goods, and services Water is also fundamental for North Queensland’s economy. Development prospects in any region, state or nation are propelled or constrained depending on the way water resources are legislated and managed.

Doing nothing or the same as the past decades is not an option. Water planning, in times of economic and population growth as well as climate change, means it can never stand still and must be a flexible tool to achieve the best outcome. The main aim of the revised Burdekin Basin Water Plan must be to create a plan that provides North Queensland with a long-term, sustainable, economic, environmental, and social future.

The fragile border between social conflict often depends on how the benefits and costs of water use are shared amongst individuals and industries. Ultimately, the future of our region depends on the ability to provide the critical environmental and water services the economy and society depend upon.

For all these reasons, decision making on how much water to use in the economy or to conserve in nature cannot be left to individual interest – it is a collective task. Water needs to be actively governed with a focus on long-term planning, that is well informed on demand, environmental and social impacts - not only in the existing known part of Burdekin system but with a holistic view of the overall system. Investigating and having a well understood environmental monitoring approach not only in the existing Lower Burdekin catchment but also in areas away from the coastal area is important to understand the future water security opportunities in the catchment. The new Plan must review the entire system and identify the needs for what water is available in what area of the system and how each part of the Burdekin system could be used to ensure long-term water security for North Queensland in the context of economic demand, social, environmental and climate change.

Water planning should not only focus on building short term or maintaining existing infrastructure to satisfy current rising water demands that are a result of economic and population growth, but should provide pathways for government and/or the private sector to make investments ahead of time, for example, security in the face of the global food and energy crises, droughts and uncertainty of future water supply due to climate change, flood control, self-treatment and depuration, biodiversity support, landscape and recreational opportunities and also the regulation of the water cycle which the provision of water depends on.

Water planning and water allocations to certain areas must be more flexible to allow for innovative and new projects to be able to be considered within the Plan, no matter what part of the catchment they are in. A holistic approach to the catchment to ensure water security is key as well as gaining a better understanding of the overall catchment and river system, including the Great Barrier Reef and the Upper Burdekin, is absolutely critical.

5. Long-term Water security and Priority Water Critical for North Queensland Economic Development

The North Queensland Economy

North Queensland is currently home to over 240,758 (2022) people. Over recent years the North Queensland economy has estimated to have grown to $19 billion. This is in part due to the economic diversity of the region, which has ensured that North Queensland has been able to withstand periods of economic uncertainty, including the COVID-19 pandemic. With a booming project pipeline, this trend for growth will see the economy grow to $43.1 billion by 2050 The forecast for growth assumes that several catalytic infrastructure investments are made in the region, which will drive considerable economic activity. This forecast will see the population increase to 614,020 also

by 2050 with an annual growth rate of 3.2%. The region’s growing population is indicative of a future demand for both industrial and domestic supply of water, as the current population has increased by a further 35.6% since the construction of the Burdekin Falls Dam in 1984, North Queensland’s only dam.

Economic Drivers and Projects

Townsville North Queensland is on the cusp of major growth and development for both existing and emerging industries. The region has benefitted from the stability of its core industries including defence, logistics, mining, education, and health and has expanded its horizons to include emerging industries such as renewable energy, hydrogen critical minerals processing and manufacturing, agritech and aquaculture.

The investment pipeline for committed and proposed projects currently is forecasted to be $64.9 billion in committed and proposed projects with 68,136 total additional jobs These major projects increase the demand on the region’s water supply by increasing the need for water for population growth and industrial use.

Some of the major committed and underway projects in the region include:

• $1.2 billion Defence and Defence Industry investment

• $1 billion Australian Singaporean Military Initiative

• $2 billion Lansdown Eco-Industrial Precinct generating over 15,000 direct and indirect jobs and supporting $815 million in additional Gross State Product (Townsville City Council)

• $2 billion Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub (TECH - Queensland Pacific Metals)

• $5 billion CopperString 2032

• $242 million Channel Upgrade Project (Port of Townsville)

• $777 million Kidston Pumped Hydro (Genex)

• $274 million Haughton Pipeline Stage 2 (Townsville City Council and Queensland Government)

• $1 billion Public and Private Hospital Upgrades and Developments

• $35 million NQ Spark (Townsville City Council, TropiQ, Townsville Hospital and Health Service, JCU (James Cook University))

(Source: Opportunity Townsville North Queensland, Townsville Enterprise (2023))

North Queensland Agriculture industry is set to grow by 5.1% per year. Diversification away from sugar and the global food crises will require 2,000 forecasted employment opportunities in the region.

Several new Dam proposals and business cases were recently completed. This work and insights must be considered in the plan.

Project Burdekin Falls Dam 2 metre raising

Hells Gates Dam The Urannah Project New

60,000 hectares of irrigated land

Economic value $6 billion

16,100 hectares of irrigated land

Economic value not public

North Queensland’s mining and renewable energy sector will continue to grow with the significant $5 billion investment into the CopperString 2032 project. The construction of this critical infrastructure will not only unlock affordable renewable energy, but also the significant new economy minerals deposits located in this region. These minerals will be used to develop electric car batteries, solar panels, and other decarbonisation technology. This project will be a major enabler for establishing green advanced manufacturing in North Queensland, CopperString is set to increase the use and export of critical minerals such as copper, zinc, vanadium, and cobalt from Mount Isa, supporting the growing clean energy and hydrogen industries in Townsville.

New projects include the Lansdown Eco-Industrial Precinct, which will be Northern Australia’s foremost eco-industrial precinct for advanced manufacturing, processing technology and emerging industries. This project is expected to create upwards of 14,000 jobs and deliver an additional $815 million in economic benefit. The Lansdown Eco-Industrial Precinct will be host to several new projects in emerging industries such as Edify Energy’s Hydrogen Electrolyser Plant and Queensland Pacific Metals’ Townsville Energy Chemical Hub (TECH) which will supply high-grade advanced battery materials to international markets.

The North Queensland health industry has received significant investment from the Queensland Government, with the $530 million upgrade to Northern Australia’s largest tertiary hospital. This is also followed by the development of a private hospital and upgrades to existing key infrastructure.

TropiQ Townsville’s Tropical Intelligence and Health Precinct, situated in the nexus of James Cook University (JCU) and Townsville University Hospital (TUH) is another key project for the region, generating an additional $1 billion in economic output for Townsville by 2035. Health and educational facilities are crucial for regional population growth and these developments are

expected to increase the population in the region, bringing 21,261 workers and their families to the region. Sustainable water resources are not only required for this sector of industry but for the population growth that comes with the increase in jobs.

The Plan must understand the long-term demand case for the entire Burdekin catchment and must allow for priority allocation to existing and new industries in broader North Queensland. The Plan must understand that industry will require long-term water security all year round to make the required investments. It must also recognise how global issues such as food and energy crisis, geopolitical tensions might require water allocation beyond the demand currently known. The Plan must provide flexibility and a holistic view within the regulatory frame to make changes to allocation in the overall Burdekin system. The Plan must be based on rigorous research and monitoring as well as allowing for innovation and world leading technology and new farming practices to be used to enable investment in new and existing areas in the overall Burdekin catchment.

6. Long-term Water Security and Priority Water Critical for North Queensland Population Growth

Since the construction of the Burdekin Dam in 1987, the population of North Queensland has almost doubled from 156,186 to 240,758.

North Queensland is currently experiencing a period of historically low unemployment rate and is currently sitting at 2.2% (March 2023). Job vacancies continue to increase as a result, particularly in the demand for higher skilled jobs.

This demand for labour is expected to grow, with future job forecasts finding that over the next 30 years, North Queensland will need a significant increase in its labour force requiring an additional 102,201 workers by 2050 above status quo projections to support future projects and industries.

The industries with the strongest employment growth by 2049-2050 will be:

• Health Care and Social Assistance +44,360 FTE

• Accommodation and food services +22,190 FTE

• Public administration and safety (defence) +18,472 FTE

• Manufacturing +13,990 FTE

• Education and training +15,793 FTE

• Agriculture +13,370 FTW

Source: AEC data (2023, unreleased) and Internet Vacancy Index (2023), Jobs and Skills Australia.

A significant amount of population growth will occur over the next few decades in North Queensland and the new Burdekin Basin Water Plan must acknowledge and prepare for that population growth

Housing Demand

Housing availability and affordability are key issues being faced across Australia and North Queensland has not been isolated from the impacts of this national housing shortage. The rental vacancy rate for the region is currently sitting at below 1%, which is a historic low. To resolve this issue and to meet future population growth estimates, there will need to be growth in the number of dwellings in the inner city and across the Townsville Local Government Area (LGA). A Housing Demand Assessment for the Townsville LGA (2022) by economics firm AEC found that across the Townsville LGA, an additional 9,142 dwellings are expected to be required by 2026, with most of these dwellings (78.4%) expected to be separate houses. By 2042, this number is expected to grow to 34,228. In Townsville’s inner city, an additional 1,574 dwellings are expected to be required by 2026, and by 2041 this number will grow to 4,489. Most of the demand for attached dwellings in the Townsville LGA is expected to occur in the inner city, which will account for 51% of total expected growth.

Securing a reliable water source will again be critical for ensuring that the region is able to house a growing population, both in the construction of these new housing estates and the increased

domestic demand for water. The average Townsville household uses 400.3kL of water per year. Source: Townsville City Council, Water Consumption (2021).

With a projected housing demand of 9,142 dwellings this would increase water demand for residential purposes by 3,659.54 ML/year.

The transition towards the green economy requires improvements to the water environment without harming prospects for existing economic development and population growth. This implies not only making social improvements compatible with the preservation of water resources but also finding new and innovative opportunities for economic growth and social development through sustainable water management.

Water planning can only contribute to green growth if water is not perceived as a simple policy area (for example, agricultural, energy or industrial policy). In the transition to the green economy, water planning needs to be converted into a cross-cutting policy, to guarantee all other policies and projects – from urban planning to agricultural policy – are coherently agreeing with collective objectives of water planning. Policy coherence is critical because of the limited ability of water ecosystems to meet all the ever increasing and competing demands for water in the economy. Global water demand is increasing due to population growth, rising living standards, and expanding production of agriculture, hydroelectricity, and the many goods and services for which water is an essential input. Water requirements today and in the future cannot be met unless all uses of water are coordinated. Water planning enables the coordination and alignment of the many public policies (such as land use, urban and rural development, manufacturing, and energy policies) and public policy objectives (such as economic efficiency, equity, basic needs coverage or cost recovery) which influence and are influenced by water management.

Deciding on the objectives for a river basin is a political and not a technical exercise. It requires identifying trade-offs between different objectives and decision criteria in water management (such as efficiency, fairness, financial and environmental sustainability). At an operational level, improved water resource management outcomes for the Burdekin Basin would be achieved if the Upper Burdekin and the Lower Burdekin were operated as a combined system with the outlook to enable further water storage systems being developed in the upper Burdekin region in future. This would enhance water security for the Burdekin Falls Dam during low rainfall periods, enable new water storage in other parts of the system- while still allowing high flow events – which are critical to the health of the coastal ecosystems (including the Great Barrier Reef) – to be passed through the system.

A transparent planning process with stakeholder participation at all stages is essential to ensure that all voices are heard. Stakeholder engagement and public participation is essential for effective water planning and requires the cooperation and engagement of a wide range of stakeholders. Public participation helps construct a shared vision of the objectives, opportunities, and challenges as well as collective and individual responsibilities involved in the management of water resources. It helps foster the perception of water as a collective asset to be preserved by cooperation rather than a common pool resource to be depleted by open access and competition. When people are aware of the benefits of this collective cooperation, they have incentives to build a reputation of good behaviour and social responsibility, fines can be perceived as fair, and the threat of moral sanctions can deter misbehaviour. But this collective action can only be based on the common perception that

7. Focus on Green Economies

water benefits are distributed fairly. This requires trust that the water authorities represent common interest and follow transparent rules instead of their own discretion. Cooperation also requires that individual behaviour be observable in a way that deviations are detected and incur costs

Building effective participatory water planning therefore requires incentives, and must ensure that decisions are perceived as fair, rules are enforced, and there is transparent and adequate information available to all.

8. Hydrogen and Pumped Hydro

Over the past two years, Townsville North Queensland has made incredible progress in the development of the emerging hydrogen industry. Several projects have already commenced construction for green hydrogen production in our region. This industry will only grow as the drive for hydrogen exports from global trading partners increase. The region is in a prime position to take advantage of the green hydrogen revolution.

Across the region, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has identified that the North West Queensland Energy Hub will be capable of producing 33GW of wind and solar energy as part of their draft Integrated System Plan (2021). A report by Transgrid further investigated the renewable energy potential for the region which highlights the natural advantage of our region the balanced availability and potential for both wind and solar resources.

Large quantities of raw water will be required for the emerging hydrogen industry over the next decade in North Queensland.

Green hydrogen is produced by taking renewable power, high purity water and converting to hydrogen and oxygen gas via electrolysis. The water requirement for green hydrogen is stoichiometrically 9 litres of water of per 1 kilogram of hydrogen produced. This is higher than for natural gas reforming, where some hydrogen is already present in the feedstock (mainly CH4). In addition, commonly overlooked water supply and disposal factors to produce green hydrogen include:

• Significant cooling load for electrolysers – which can require additional 30 to 40 litres of water per 1 kilogram of hydrogen for makeup in water cooled systems. Over time, the stack efficiency of the electrolyser decreases, and most of the efficiency losses report to additional heating of the stack; with the result that the cooling load increases significantly over the lifetime of the stack (typically 8 to 10 years of operational time). The cooling demand for the electrolyser can typically increase by 40% to 70% from beginning of life to end of stack life.

• Other cooling loads – such as the multi-stage compressors with intercooling to compress the produced hydrogen to a suitable pressure for storage or use.

• Raw water feed requiring treatment to meet high purity electrolyser requirements – with around 20% - 40% of the water sent to waste during the treatment process, depending on the quality of the imported raw water.

• Water disposal – due to the increased concentration of feedwater impurities into the waste streams this water can often not be discharged to the environment and requires connection to a waste treatment facility or onsite treatment or disposal.

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Pumped hydro is another renewable source of energy The energy generated through pumped hydro relies on the water cycle, which is driven by the sun, making it renewable. Hydroelectric power is flexible. Some hydropower facilities can quickly go from zero power to maximum output. Because pumped hydro plants can generate power to the grid immediately, they provide essential backup power during major electricity outages or disruptions.

To build effective pumped hydro stations suitable dams will be required Sustainably responsible dam development with high emphasis on environmental responsibility is essential for future water security and green energy stabilisation.

By utilising hydroelectric power, it provides systems stability benefits to the National Electricity Market in an environment where significant oversupply of renewables is apparent in the North Queensland electricity network. This will be beneficial in the move to a decarbonised future for the region and the development and sustainability of the green energy economy.

Due to the large source of renewables in the Hughenden to Townsville area a pumped hydro project in the Upper Burdekin Project would allow the renewable power generated in Hughenden to be stored and backed up. Commercial Feasibility studies have been undertaken and a live volume of water of 9,300 megalitres will be required to operate.

9. Holistic Water Management Across the Upper and Lower Burdekin System Provides Significant Opportunity

The opportunity for the Upper Burdekin development exists with appropriate planning and foresight in terms of water supply. Currently water allocation is difficult to access for this region as it is allocated to the Lower Burdekin The primary service need is to secure water allocation and supply in the Upper Burdekin, to support high value irrigated agricultural and horticultural production and industrial development. This has direct and indirect flow-on benefits, providing long-term secure employment in the region.

Investing in water access in the region is particularly attractive due to the availability of large tracts of highly productive agricultural land and favourable climatic and other environmental conditions. The agricultural land is suitable for a suite of annual horticulture, perennial horticulture and broadacre crops, for which market assessments demonstrated strong demand for the various crop types.

Developing the Upper Burdekin (through ensuring water allocation for the region) provides the opportunity to establish best-practice innovative technology in the irrigation scheme, land, and water management in the Burdekin Basin, which would reduce sediment and nutrient loads flowing to the coastal ecosystems and the Great Barrier Reef. The Upper Burdekin is also significantly less

susceptible to groundwater level increases and consequent secondary salinity, which is currently an issue in the Lower Burdekin area.

Assessment of market demand supports the findings that the development of the Upper Burdekin for agricultural purposes presents the opportunity to transition to higher value agricultural and horticultural production whilst maintaining grazing activities in the northern Burdekin region.

Based on recent studies there is sufficient demand for the full 60,000 hectares of irrigated farming and the full use of any available water allocations. This will double the value of crop production regionally, resulting in the Burdekin Basin becoming the largest regional contributor to Queensland’s non-livestock agricultural output, and account for an additional 3% of the total national annual crop production

Development of the Upper Burdekin has wider regional benefits to the supply chain and supporting service industries. Additionally, high value agricultural and horticultural development will address the current decline in population in regional areas by supporting future manufacturing and secondary processing, which will subsequently promote more jobs and skills enhancement in the region.

Indigenous

Engagement and consultation with Traditional Owners is an important component of any development. Allocation of water to areas for growth and development in agriculture or industry including the Upper Burdekin must not only address agricultural and economic development related service needs but also the needs of the Traditional Owners.

Opportunities can arise for First Nations people of the region, including the Upper Burdekin region, in the water planning and allocation.

• Business opportunities – land and water allocations provisioning Indigenous business opportunities (water trades, farming opportunities, eco-tourism etc.)

• Education and upskilling – upskilling opportunities can be built into Heritage Agreements or gifted. These may include land care, ranger work, environmental monitoring, archaeology and heritage survey, construction etc.

• Jobs and employment – procurement policies to make sure Indigenous businesses can compete and win portions of work associated with developments in the region. Traditional Owners identified the importance that these are not tokenistic opportunities and provide quality opportunities across the operational matrix.

10. Key Issues to be Resolved to Grow Opportunities

The revised Burdekin Water Plan must consider the need for a holistic Burdekin strategy to ensure long-term water security. To develop the most effective and efficient water strategy, government must fully understand economic demand, population growth, environmental and social needs of the entire river system. The aim must be to use every single drop of water within the regulated environmental flows wisely Currently, the majority of water allocations are in the Lower Burdekin. To unleash unused or unallocated buckets of water allocations that have sat unused and underutilised for decades, further works in the Great Barrier Reef, the Lower and Upper Burdekin

areas, will be required to understand what a long-term water development strategy needs to look like.

To develop further long-term water storage in the upper system, Badu Advisory was engaged by Townsville Enterprise in 2022 to undertake a high-level review of Lower Burdekin benefits and impacts, with a focus on the groundwater system that might arise from future bulk water infrastructure development in the overall Burdekin catchment. For the purposes of this review, the Lower Burdekin is taken to be the underirrigated agriculture area downstream of the Burdekin Falls Dam.

The following seven key considerations were identified by Badu Advisory and examined during this high-level review:

1. Implications for aquifer recharge including saltwater intrusion

2. Implications for water security and availability including for existing urban, industrial and irrigation water users as well as for future opportunities such as water for hydrogen

3. Implications for environmental flows

4. Implications for riverine and Reef water quality including turbidity and sedimentation.

5. Understanding the cumulative impacts of existing and proposed upstream water resource infrastructure and development

6. Shortcomings of the current siloed institutional, water allocation/management and regulatory arrangements.

7. Implications of climate change and variability including frequency/intensity of future riverine flow events (floods and droughts).

Table 1 is a summary of further studies and/or further investment, arising from this review, that should be pursued as part of the further assessment of future upstream bulk water infrastructure developments. These are intended to complement (rather than duplicate) the range of programs already underway by research organisations in the Lower Burdekin.

The below details and opportunities should be a key consideration for understanding the overall Burdekin Basin Water Plan

Key opportunities

1. Line Sunwater’s open-earth distribution channels in the Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme as a pathway for investing in infrastructure that would directly and immediately reduce the volume of water seeping into the groundwater system.

2. Commit to a research program to enable the collaborative and coordinated management of coastal wetland ecosystems and their interconnections with the Great Barrier Reef and Lower Burdekin Delta groundwater systems

3. Engage with stakeholders about the improved hydrologic performance that would be offered by extending the existing Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme to incorporate a new upstream storage

4.1.1

4.1.2

4.2

Page 16 of 19

Table 1. Key recommendations for further study and/or investment in the Lower Burdekin

4. Investigate and assess, in consultation with the community, the pros and cons associated with the potential changes to the downstream flow regime particularly with respect to the impacts and benefits of reducing peak flood flows in the Lower Burdekin. Other examples of environmental flow strategies that warrant future dialogue with stakeholders might include:

• Extending low to medium environmental flow objectives beyond the trunk stream to better service important ecological assets located away from the main river and dependent on smaller off-river tributaries from the delta for their seasonal connection to coastal wetlands

• Including provisions that encourage greater use of groundwater at certain times when preservation of riverine and tributary flows is considered environmentally important.

5. Assess the potential benefits and costs of modifying the outlet works at Burdekin Falls Dam to enable active management and bypassing of occasional pulse-style environmental releases that are aligned with improving management of downstream sediment loads, aquifer recharge and sand dam performance, efficiency, and lifespan

6. Consider retrofitting a multi-level outlet work structure at Burdekin Falls Dam to improve management of the water quality of dam releases for downstream environmental and water supply purposes.

7. Examine, in a whole of region context, the cumulative impacts of existing plus various combinations of new water infrastructure developments on riverine and coastal geomorphological considerations. This should include using the hydrologic information available from the modelling studies recently completed as part of Detailed Business Cases.

8. Establish a renewed funding basis, focus, and drive for all stakeholders –organisations and individuals – to reengage in the kind of joint visioning, collaborative thinking and learning, and community-driven action that was previously espoused by Williams et al over a decade ago. This could also be supported by the engagement processes that will support the Department of Regional Development, Manufacturing and Water for development and implementation of an updated water plan for the Burdekin.

9. Quantify the potential benefits that additional storage capacity might offer as a means of managing potential variations in climate that are more extreme than observed in the historical record (for example, less frequent but more intense flood events interspersed with drought events of extended duration)

10. Conceptualise the design and desired performance of existing and new bulk water infrastructure developments in terms of regional water grids that draw together multiple sources of water (including catchment surface water storages, groundwater, and manufactured water etc.) and inter- connectors (using bulk water pipelines) to provide overall reliability of a water supply portfolio that matches users’ needs.

The Report can be found in Appendix A.

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

To successfully realise the forecasted benefits and opportunities for the Upper Burdekin and have an efficient and effective water allocation system that encourages growth and development in a sustainable and environmentally responsible manner, several critical issues will need to be resolved as part of the revised water plan.

Identifying additional water allocations for the Upper Burdekin needs to be considered as part of the revised water plan, desirably based on an integrated operations model across the Burdekin River system. Currently, access to water allocations for this region is limited, difficult and will inhibit or deter industry investment in the region It must be considered that many investors rely on 365 days water security which traditionally comes from larger water storage solutions.

Identified pathways for addressing this challenge include various combinations of the following water allocation strategies, with multiple options providing heightened opportunity for the sourcing of the necessary water entitlements to be advanced:

• Creating a new additional unallocated strategic water reserve for new water storage projects

• A mechanism or framework on how reassigning some (or all) of the existing unallocated water reserves to new projects can be achieved during the regulatory life of the new Burdekin Basin Water Plan

• Acquiring and moving/reconfiguring/converting existing (unused) water entitlements that are located within the Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme, and reallocating these to new projects.

• Demand for water and source of funding.

Further assessments will also be required to gain a full understanding of the holistic Burdekin River system and how implementation can occur in a coordinated and integrated manner.

Claudia Brumme-Smith Chief Executive Officer Townsville Enterprise Limited

Appendix A

Lower Burdekin Badu Report

Townsville Enterprise Limited (TEL)

High-level review of potential lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment

3 July 2022

TEL – High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

Badu Advisory Pty Ltd

ABN 17613 863 602

Post: PO Box 2051

Keperra, QLD, 4054 AUSTRALIA

Email: info@baduadvisory.com

Web: www.baduadvisory.com

This report has been prepared in accordance with the scope of services described in the agreement between Badu Advisory and TEL (‘the client’). The report has been prepared solely for use by the client and Badu Advisory accepts no responsibility for its use by other parties. It is intended to provide high-level strategic advice regarding strategic water issues. Badu Advisory does not provide legal, engineering, financial services, or tax advice.

Copyright © Badu Advisory Pty Ltd

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

Executive Summary

Badu Advisory was engaged by TEL to undertake a high-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts, with a focus on the groundwater system, that might arise from future bulk water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment For the purposes of this review, the lower Burdekin is taken to be the area under irrigated agriculture area downstream of the Burdekin Falls Dam.

The following seven key considerations were identified and examined during this high-level review:

1. Implications for aquifer recharge including saltwater intrusion

2. Implications for water security and availability including for existing urban, industrial and irrigation water users as well as for future opportunities such as water for hydrogen

3. Implications for environmental flows

4. Implications for riverine and reef water quality including turbidity and sedimentation

5. Understanding the cumulative impacts of existing and proposed upstream water resource infrastructure and development

6. Shortcomings of the current siloed institutional, water allocation/management and regulatory arrangements and

7. Implications of climate change and variability including frequency/intensity of future riverine flow events (floods and droughts).

Table 1 is a summary of further studies and/or further investment, arising from this review, that might be pursued as part of the further assessment of future upstream bulk water infrastructure developments (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project). These are intended to complement (rather than duplicate) the range of programs already underway by research organisations in the lower Burdekin.

Key opportunities

1. Line Sunwater’s open-earth distribution channels in the BHWSS as a pathway for investing in infrastructure that would directly and immediately reduce the volume of water seeping into the groundwater system.

2. Commit to a research programme to enable the collaborative and coordinated management of coastal wetland ecosystems and their interconnections with the Great Barrier Reef and lower Burdekin Delta groundwater systems

3. Engage with stakeholders about the improved hydrologic performance that would be offered by extending the existing Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme to incorporate a new upstream storage

4. investigate and assess, in consultation with the community, the pros and cons associated with the potential changes to the downstream flow regime particularly with respect to the impacts and benefits of reducing peak flood flows in the lower Burdekin. Other examples of environmental flow strategies that warrant future dialogue with stakeholders (as part of the upcoming water plan revision process) might include:

• extending low to medium environmental flow objectives beyond the trunk stream to better service important ecological assets located away from the main river and dependent on smaller off-river tributaries from the delta for their seasonal connection to coastal wetlands and

• including provisions that encourage greater use of groundwater at certain times when preservation of riverine and tributary flows is considered environmentally important.

4.1.1

4.1.2

4.3

Table 1 - Summary of key recommendations for further study and/or investment in the lower Burdekin

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

Key opportunities

5. Assess the potential benefits and costs of modifying the outlet works at Burdekin Falls Dam to enable active management and bypassing of occasional pulse-style environmental releases that are aligned with improving management of downstream sediment loads, aquifer recharge and sand dam performance, efficiency and lifespan and

6. Consider retrofitting a multi-level outlet work structure at Burdekin Falls Dam as a means of improving management of the water quality of dam releases for downstream environmental and water supply purposes.

7. Examine, in a whole of region context, the cumulative impacts of existing plus various combinations of new water infrastructure developments on riverine and coastal geomorphological considerations. This should include utilizing the hydrologic information available from the modelling studies that have been recently completed as part of Detailed Business Cases

8. Establish a renewed funding basis, focus and drive for all stakeholders – organisations and individuals – to reengage in the kind of joint visioning, collaborative thinking and learning, and community-driven action that previously espoused by Williams et al over a decade ago. This could also be supported by the engagement processes that will support DRDMW’s development and implementation of an updated water plan for the Burdekin.

9. Quantify the potential benefits that additional storage capacity might offer as a means of managing potential variations in climate that are more extreme than observed in the historical record (i.e. less frequent but more intense flood events interspersed with drought events of extended duration) and

10. Conceptualise the design and desired performance of existing and new bulk water infrastructure developments in terms of regional water grids that draw together multiple sources of water (including catchment surface water storages, groundwater and manufactured water etc.) and interconnectors (using bulk water pipelines) to provide overall reliability of a water supply portfolio that matches users’ needs.

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

1 Introduction

Townsville Enterprise Limited (TEL) is an advocacy body that aims to attract major investment to the region encompassing Townsville, Magnetic Island, Palm Island, Burdekin Shire, Hinchinbrook Shire and Charters Towers (Townsville Enterprise Limited, 2022a) It is also the proponent of a business case for the proposed Hells Gates Dam development which would involve a major new dam at Hells Gates in the Upper Burdekin catchment with three downstream weirs and associated irrigation areas.

Badu Advisory was engaged by TEL to undertake a high-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts, with a focus on the groundwater system, that might arise from future bulk water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment (‘future development’). For the purposes of this review, the lower Burdekin is taken to be the area under irrigated agriculture area downstream of the Burdekin Falls Dam.

The scope of this high-level review includes:

• examining the potential lower Burdekin aquifer impacts and opportunities associated with future development

• identifying high-level data and key facts to assist in consultation and engagement purposes with relevant stakeholders and

• considering published and anecdotal information including views voiced in meetings (held on 9-10 June 2022) with researchers and government agency representatives.

The purpose of this report is to present a summary of findings in relation to the above for TEL’s future consideration.

2 Methodology

The proposed approach to this high-level review was as follows:

• Review and reference existing literature and existing hydrological modelling1 to:

o make a high-level assessment (in words only) of the potential impacts of future development on the lower Burdekin groundwater systems2

o describe potential water release management strategies for decreasing impacts on existing aquifers including, but not limited to, control of flows for optimising the effectiveness and lifespan of sand dams

o list recommended studies / further assessments warranting further investigation and investment and

• Identify high-level data that may be used to:

o consult verbally, and through graphical illustrations, with lower Burdekin stakeholders

o to assist in explaining the potential impacts (and benefits) of future development with respect to (wrt):

1 In preparing this report, Badu Advisory has had access to the results of yield hydrology modelling that was undertaken by ODHydrology for SMEC to support their development of the business case.

2 Lower Burdekin unconfined groundwater system and aquifer under the delta and the Burdekin River Irrigation Area (BRIA)

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

§ changes in water flows to the lower Burdekin wrt water security and aquifer concerns (e.g. through an explanation of water allocation in the Burdekin vs actual water usage)

§ rising water tables (and associated threats to agricultural production) in the lower Burdekin

§ the erosion of Cape Bowling Green due to sediment starvation3

§ increased turbidity (dirtiness) of the Burdekin River and

§ increased nutrient flows / containments to the Great Barrier Reef.

3 Overview of key considerations

The following key considerations were raised by and/or discussed with government agency representatives and researchers during this high-level review:

1. Implications for aquifer recharge including saltwater intrusion

2. Implications for water security and availability including for existing urban, industrial and irrigation water users as well as for future opportunities such as water for hydrogen

3. Implications for environmental flows

4. Implications for riverine and reef water quality including turbidity and sedimentation

5. Understanding the cumulative impacts of existing and proposed upstream water resource infrastructure and development

6. Shortcomings of the current siloed institutional, water allocation/management and regulatory arrangements and

7. Implications of climate change and variability including frequency/intensity of future riverine flow events (floods and droughts).

These are each examined in the following sections.

4 Analysis of implications and areas warranting further study

4.1 Aquifer recharge

The groundwaters of the lower Burdekin may generally be characterised in terms of two interlinked but distinct complex aquifer systems that are facing different water resource management challenges

The two systems and their respective challenges and opportunities are discussed in turn below.

4.1.1 Groundwater systems underlying the Burdekin River Irrigation Area

The first groundwater system effectively underlies the area of irrigated land that is supplied by the Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme (BHWSS). The bulk and distribution water supply infrastructure within the scheme is owned and operated by Sunwater Limited4 . The BHWSS supplies surface water from water storages on the Burdekin River (e.g. Burdekin Falls Dam and Clare Weir) via open channel systems to an area of irrigated agriculture that extends from Dalbeg and Clare through to the Giru groundwater area (see Figure 1) This area is sometimes referred to as the Burdekin River Irrigation Area (BRIA) (Sunwater Limited, 2022)

3 Only included in scope to the extent of mentioning any prelim information gleaned from review of references.

4 Sunwater is a Queensland Government Owned Corporation

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

In 2017, the Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy Project found that:

• the dramatic increase in surface water irrigation within the BRIA since the late 1980s had led to increased groundwater recharge and rising groundwater tables

• some parts of the BRIA had experienced a rise in groundwater levels of up to 10 m over the last couple of decades

• this had resulted in groundwater levels being less than 3m below the ground surface across approximately 15 per cent of the irrigated area within the project area, with some areas measuring the groundwater table at only 0.5 m below the surface

• such high water tables result in water logging of the soil profile and also mobilise salts from the underlying bedrock which can increase salinity levels, both of which can reduce the productivity of agricultural land and limit opportunities for future development and

• high groundwater levels can also lead to higher rates of property and catchment run-off flowing into downstream receiving environments (such as the Ramsar listed wetlands at Bowling Green Bay and the Great Barrier Reef lagoon), and nutrient and sediment loads in this run-off adversely affecting the quality of water entering these environments (State of Queensland, 2017)

Previous work by the Department of Natural Resources and Mines (DNRM) suggested that:

• rainfall deep drainage has increased (estimated from 1.5% to 20%) due to clearing and/or gypsum application and

• irrigation deep drainage is estimated to be approximately 23% of applied water (Queensland Government, 2017).

Figure 1 - Groundwater and surface water flows in the lower Burdekin

(Queensland Government, 2021a) Note that the former NBWB and SBWB areas are now managed by LBW).

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

The Queensland Competition Authority’s final report into Sunwater’s irrigation prices for the period 2020-24 provides a recent indication of the volume of surface water seeping from Sunwater channels into the groundwater system. It found that:

• the total volume of high and medium priority channel loss water allocations held by Sunwater in the BHWSS is 206,737 ML

• the estimated actual annual channel distribution losses ranged from 51,253 ML in 2018-19 up to 173,757 ML in 2013-14 and

• excessive growth of aquatic weed in 2013-14 (due to lower that usual levels of turbidity in surface water from the Burdekin River) caused the flow of water within the channel to slow down resulting in higher levels of distribution losses (Queensland Competition Authority, 2020)

This equates to an annual average of 100,548 ML/a as calculated over the seven period from 201213 to 2018-19. Such losses could be substantially reduced through the lining of the open-earth channels in the BHWSS

In June 2018, Sunwater also reported that a program was underway in the Burdekin region to improve the accuracy of meters that were incorrectly recording water use. Sunwater estimated that delivery losses and other water accounting-related water use aggregated to around 13% of total water supply (Munck, 2018)

In 2019-20, total nominal volume of high and medium priority water allocations in the BHWSS was 1,079,592 ML for which Sunwater’s reported total water deliveries (including distribution losses) was 663,465 ML5 (i.e. around 61% of water allocation nominal volume) 70,008 ML or about 10.5% of

Table 2 - BHWSS channel distribution loss water allocation entitlements (WAEs) and usage

From (Queensland Competition Authority, 2020) Table 51

5 Which is not dissimilar to the 18-year historical average reported in the 2020-21 Network Service Plan for the BHWSS of 600,384 ML/a

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

water delivered in that year was reportedly or channel distribution losses. Table 3 illustrates the breakdown of water allocation and usage volumes for that year (Sunwater Limited, 2021)

Table 3 - Water allocations and usage for the BHWSS

The above illustrates that there appears to be scope to:

• improve the metering and monitoring of water usage and channel losses within the BHWSS and

• reduce groundwater accessions through lining of BHWSS channel distribution systems.

DRDMW is currently developing a groundwater strategy to address the threat that rising groundwater levels and soil salinity pose to the economic productivity of the agriculture-rich Lower Burdekin region in North Queensland. DRDMW note that:

Sugar cane production in the Lower Burdekin groundwater strategy project area has an annual turnover estimated at between $160 to 180 million. The region has the highest sugar cane yield, in terms of tonnes per hectare productivity, of any region in Australia. Agriculture is the largest employer in the Burdekin local government area, employing over 1,500 people

Higher groundwater levels can waterlog the soil and increase salinity, reducing the productivity of agricultural land and limiting opportunities for further development. It can also result in additional run-off to sensitive downstream environments (e.g. the Ramsar-listed wetlands at Bowling Green Bay and the Great Barrier Reef) (Queensland Government, 2021b)

DRDMW released a Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy Project Discussion Paper which identified four categories of potential management actions that would either reduce groundwater recharge and/or extract groundwater from the aquifer:

• changes to more efficient onfarm irrigation practices and supporting programs – including promoting greater use of on-farm conjunctive use (mixing of saline groundwater and betterquality surface water)

• operational actions – including reducing channel seepage by lining open-earth channels with high-density polyethylene establishing scheme operated dewatering bores, upgrading Sunwater distribution infrastructure (such as replacement of inefficient channel regulation

(Sunwater Limited, 2021) Note that data includes the bulk water supply scheme, the distribution system, Burdekin Town Water and Burdekin Moranbah Pipeline.

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

gates, greater use of balancing or offstream storages and better capture of system outflows from Clare main channel), dewatering aquifers disposing and saline water in evaporation ponds or waterways

• regulatory actions – including reviewing the Burdekin water plan and operations manual to include strategies to help reduce groundwater recharge, rising groundwater and salinity (such as placing restrictions on surface water use to prioritise groundwater use when groundwater tables reach critical levels, making changes to the licencing framework to encourage the use of groundwater instead of surface water and/or the supply of supplemented (blended) groundwater from dewatering bores to maintain water quality, developing environmental management rules to manage groundwater issues, or improving the security of groundwater entitlements to enable greater trading opportunities

• incentive measures – including revamping current pricing arrangements (e.g. by including the costs associated with the impact of surface water use on rising groundwater tables into surface water prices, or re-balancing the fixed–variable surface water price ratio with a smaller fixed charge and larger variable charge) that might encourage irrigators to use surface water more efficiently and to make greater use of groundwater, or utilizing marketbased instruments (e.g. such as establishing price signals that give landholders the choice and flexibility to decide whether to change their practices or incur higher costs) (State of Queensland, 2017)

Discussion with a BRIA irrigator in June 2022 indicated that Sunwater has previously restricted the volume of permanent water trades into the BRIA – ostensibly to avoid exacerbating groundwater and salinity issues in the area although existing channel delivery capacity constraints is also likely to be a key consideration in limiting the additional volume of surface water supplied to the area.

In June 2018, Sunwater presented a range of potential infrastructure solutions to supply water to identified future irrigation areas and also improve the water supply and energy use efficiency associated with the Burdekin- Haughton Water Supply Scheme (BHWSS) Whilst Sunwater’s report included examining the Haughton Channel Capacity Upgrade option, at that time the focus was primarily about allocating resources to projects that have higher commercial and/or economic merit although it acknowledged that many of the solutions considered had the potential to form part of the proposed lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy to address the high groundwater levels present in the area (Munck, 2018).

Clearly the most effective overall approach for addressing the rise in groundwater levels and salinity in the BRIA appears likely to be a combination of the approaches as proposed by the Burdekin Groundwater Strategy Project. However, lining the open-earth distribution channels appears to offer a pathway for investing in infrastructure that would directly and immediately reduce the volume of water seeping into the groundwater system.

This presents an important opportunity for a new bulk water resource development (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) that extends the reach of the existing BHWSS to well upstream of Burdekin Falls Dam Incorporating the cost of channel lining into the upfront capex of such a project would (a) arrest and potentially reverse the ongoing rises in groundwater and salinity levels within the BHWSS from channel losses and (b) enable up to 200 GL of channel loss water allocations to be freed up and repurposed to support productive use (e.g. irrigation and/or water for hydrogen) in areas that do not place any additional groundwater resource stress in BRIA (e.g. by opening up new irrigation areas upstream of the Burdekin Falls Dam)

4.1.2 Groundwater system underlying the area managed by Lower Burdekin Water

The second groundwater system effectively underlies an area of irrigated land that is supplied with water by Lower Burdekin Water (LBW) which was formerly made up of the North Burdekin Water

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

Board (NBWB) and South Burdekin Water Board (SBWB) as shown in Figure 1 LBW is a locally managed organisation that manages the groundwater system in the lower Burdekin Delta including through its supplementation and replenishment (recharge) from surface water supplies sourced from the Burdekin River (Lower Burdekin Water, 2022)

LBW diverts water from the Burdekin River into modified natural and artificial recharge systems to replenish the large coastal, unconfined aquifer that beneath its area of authority. Water contained in this aquifer is pumped by irrigators, industry, the Burdekin Shire Council and residents. Customers also pump open water directly from LBW channels and lagoons. This reduces demand in the aquifer and assists in conserving and managing underground water levels as well as improving the quantity and quality of water available within the aquifer (Lower Burdekin Water, 2021)

NQ Dry Tropics consider that the main matters of concern – including the effects of seawater intrusion, a rising groundwater table, and increasing concentrations of salts – relate to the health of the Burdekin River Delta aquifer and coastal wetland ecosystems. They contend that contributing factors include the amount of water being released through watercourses and channels for irrigation access, deep drainage and channel leakage, and irrigation practices (NQ Dry Tropics, 2022a).

Natural recharge from rainfall is understood by LBW to be a key to the recovery of groundwater levels to healthy levels. Elevated water levels within the Burdekin River during flood events (such as that which occurred in 2021) is also believed by LBW to contribute to replenishment of the aquifer. However, LBW report that their ability to pump water from the Burdekin River can be negatively impacted during such events but may be offset by local rainfall (Lower Burdekin Water, 2021).

In 2020-21, the key challenges facing the LBW highlight the range of uncertainties or knowledge gaps that they currently face. These include:

• concerns about the impacts that proposed upstream dams might have on natural river flows, water allocation reliability and the environment in the lower Burdekin Delta area

• the need for groundwater research within the Burdekin Delta6 covering:

o the influence of seawater intrusion of the Delta groundwater resource and the risk to this resource from sea-level rise ad changing rainfall patterns

o predicting groundwater response to different irrigation surface water/groundwater conjunctive use scenarios

o the influence of Burdekin River on groundwater recharge and the potential impacts of new or modified upstream dam proposals

o the efficacy of LBW’s recharge pits, delivery channels and sand dams on groundwater recharge and extent of the benefited areas

• improving the technical design/management of, and clarity of the regulatory framework supporting, sand dams within the Burdekin River (Lower Burdekin Water, 2021)

The above suggests that there are a range of fundamental areas that warrant urgent and coordinated research to enable improved and more efficient management of the groundwater resources in the lower Burdekin Delta. Although LBW (as the authority responsible for managing access to the resource) is progressing such research, increased support for broader and longer-term study programme would appear to be warranted to enable the collaborative and coordinated management of coastal wetland ecosystems and their interconnections with the Great Barrier Reef and lower Burdekin Delta groundwater systems.

6 LBW have partnered with Flinders University in a five-year agreement to undertake research into these areas.

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

Committing to such a research programme appears to be the key opportunity and potential inclusion for investment by a future upstream bulk water infrastructure development (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project)

4.2 Water security and availability

Water users have expressed concerns that future upstream bulk water infrastructure developments might result in changes in water flows to Burdekin Falls Dam and result in reduced water security and availability. As mentioned in section 4.1.2, this is also one of the specific issues identified by LBW In addition, discussion with mayors in June 2022 also confirmed that water security remains a priority for all local governments in the region. In addition, securing new sources of reliable water was identified as being important to support future hydrogen production in the region (Townsville Enterprise Limited, 2022b).

Hydrologic modelling was undertaken as part of the Hells Gates Dam Detailed Business Case to assess the impact of new development on the long-term hydrologic performance of existing high and medium priority supplemented water allocations in the BHWSS. This modelling found that the long-term hydrologic reliability of the existing supplemented water allocations held by urban, industrial and irrigation customers were similar or better than those of the water plan base case and exceeded the water allocation security objectives set out in the Burdekin water plan (Badu Advisory, Unpublished).

Using hydrologic modelling, sensitivity analysis was also undertaken to understand the relationship between the capacity of the proposed dam and the BHWSS’s hydrologic performance as well as resilience to climate change. These analyses suggested that a larger dam capacity (for a given volume of new water allocations) would materially increase the annual reliability of existing medium priority water allocations and of new medium priority water allocations supplied from Hells Gates Dam, as well as reduce the extent of impact of a drier climate on the reliability of medium priority water allocations (Badu Advisory, Unpublished).

The opportunity for a future upstream bulk water infrastructure development (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) is to engage with stakeholders about the improved hydrologic performance that would be offered by extending the existing Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme to incorporate the new upstream storage. As the Burdekin Shire Council Mayor observed to the media in March 2022:

The Burdekin Shire’s namesake is the delta on which our communities have grown. This River is an integral part of our community not only for its impressive size, but in the opportunities it provides to us. Our abundant water supply is fed by an underground aquifer, which each year is replenished in the wet season when the Burdekin Falls Dam spills and sends water downstream. I am aware that water security is important for all communities, however there needs to be more evidence that Burdekin Shire’s water security is not taken away from us for the development of new areas and benefit for others (Burdekin Shire Council, 2022)

Stakeholder engagement should also extend to examining the potential benefits of treating the new and existing water infrastructure as an integrated water supply scheme – this would enable new upstream storages, Burdekin Falls Dam and Clare Weir to be managed in such a way that optimizes the efficiency of water deliveries, water sharing and trading rules, water storage arrangements and environmental water releases (e.g. to mimic natural flow events as well as maintain fish passage flows) throughout the entire system (Badu Advisory, Unpublished)

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4.3 Environmental flows

Concerns have also been expressed by various stakeholders about the potential impacts of new upstream bulk water infrastructure developments on environmental flows in the lower Burdekin. Hydrologic modelling was undertaken as part of the Hells Gates Dam Detailed Business Case to assess the impact of new development on the flow regime in the lower Burdekin. The modelling found that at the mouth of the Burdekin River (water planning node 1) there was an improvement on the majority of the environmental flow objectives but an observable decrease in modelled flood flows (as indicated by the 5-year and 20-year high flow objectives).

There is no doubt that seasonal peak flood flow events are important for watering and connecting riverine and wetland habitats as well as contributing to riverine recharge of the lower Burdekin Delta groundwater system as mentioned in section 4.1.2. The environmental flow objectives within the water plan reflect the ecologically important components of the flow regime in hydrological statistical terms. Sheep Station Creek which is a floodplain distributary of the Burdekin River that historically only flowed seasonally during the wet season and transitioned to a chain of isolated lagoons in the dry season, is a case in point:

The main environmental management issues confronting the Sheep Station Creek system are associated with changed catchment hydrology, aquatic weed infestation, altered fire regimes, degradation of riparian zones, water quality impacts and barriers to fish passage connectivity. These issues have arisen since European settlement with the intensive development of the catchment’s land and water resources for irrigated agriculture and pastoral development. Hydrological change is arguably the primary driver of observed environmental impacts (Tait, 2021)

On the other hand, major peak flood events represent a serious threat to low-lying properties and communities within the lower Burdekin. Flood events generally follow heavy rainfall with most common floods occurring in February and March. Very large floods generally occur between January and April, and large events occurring from December to May. Local experience suggests that flooding at Giru is linked with flooding at Ayr and Home Hill: the Haughton and Lower Burdekin subcatchments merge in some events with floodwater spilling across the catchment delta. Home Hill is usually flooded first, followed by Ayr whereas Dalbeg and Millaroo are predominately above flood levels (Queensland Reconstruction Authority, 2022).

The lower Burdekin floodplain experienced large flood events in 1927, 1940, 1946, 1958, 1974, 1988 & 1991. The 1946 flood was the largest event for which recorded data is available with a peak discharge of 40,400 cubic metres/second recorded in March at the river gauge at Home Hill. This event was a similar height to the 1940 event but was more prolonged. During the event, the floodwaters broke the le bank of the Burdekin River at Gladys' Lagoon and joined up with floodwaters from the Haughton River, causing widespread flooding in very large areas in the north side of Home Hill (Queensland Reconstruction Authority, 2022)

Provision of additional upstream storage capacity coupled with multi-level dam outlet works that are capable of better managing the timing – and reducing the peak - of natural yet damaging peak flood flow events may present benefits of significant economic value and importance to downstream communities.

The opportunity for a future upstream bulk water infrastructure development (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) will be to further investigate and assess, in consultation with the community, the pros and cons associated with the potential changes to the downstream flow regime particularly with respect to the impacts and benefits of reducing peak flood flows in the lower Burdekin.

Other examples of environmental flow strategies that warrant future dialogue with stakeholders (as part of the upcoming water plan revision process) might include:

• extending low to medium environmental flow objectives beyond the trunk stream to better service important ecological assets located away from the main river and dependent on

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

smaller off-river tributaries from the delta for their seasonal connection to coastal wetlands and

• including provisions that encourage greater use of groundwater at certain times when preservation of riverine and tributary flows is considered environmentally important.

4.4 Water quality, turbidity and sedimentation

A key area of focus and investment for researchers and resource managers in the lower Burdekin continues to be in understanding and addressing the potential implications of existing and proposed water infrastructure developments on riverine, coastal wetland and reef water quality and condition including the effects of turbidity and sedimentation

However, as Burrows et al observe, aiming to restore natural function to wetlands in a highly and permanently modified environment may not be realistic:

Health and naturalness may be very different end-points for such wetlands, depending on the landscape context, creating the need for more holistic and expansive evaluations of end-point goals. Commonly, we find that the solutions proposed are often based on generic and simplistic views, including the reversal of the perceived root cause of the problem, though this is not always the best course of action. These simplistic views often result in unrealistic expectations and a failure to target the most effective outcomes and means of rehabilitation… [Three case studies in the lower Burdekin show that] end-point goals for wetland rehabilitation are quite different from restoration of their pre-European state… [and that] elevated turbidity and flow regimes, even though unnatural and often thought of in a negative context, are actually maintaining the health of key coastal wetlands by decreasing their vulnerability to other human pressures (Burrows, 1999)

In 2014, the Australian Institute of Science (AIMS) Fabricus et al found that the presence of fine sediment is one of the biggest pressures on the health of inshore reefs because it clouds the water and blocks sunlight from reaching photosynthetic algae in the coral. AIMS’ study also showed that large river flood events during the wet season washed sediment into the ocean which had a significant impact on water quality around the reef and could last several months (K.E. Fabricus, 2014). It was also reported that the fine sediment in the river was caused by land erosion but that: with better land management practices (which are currently going on in the catchment, we can probably reduce the amount of that erosion and reduce the amount of load the rivers are carrying into the reef (Whiting, 2014).

Clearly, AIMS’s work has confirmed that improved land management is a priority for targeted subcatchments within the Burdekin Basin. Fabricus et al observed that:

a reduction in fine sediments and nutrient loads in the Burdekin River is likely to improve water clarity for six to eight months per year, potentially also providing cumulative benefits in consecutive years especially in the coastal band. The documented changes in water clarity are sufficiently large to affect coral reef and seagrass communities, hence reductions in river loads would likely lead to substantial ecosystem health benefits Specific sub-catchments that contribute most to the sediment and nutrient loads have been identified, and the relative roles of fertilizers, hill- slope, gully and streambank erosion to end-of-river loads have been quantified Land management efforts should therefore be prioritised to maximize the retention of nutrients, clays and fine silts in these sub-catchments, which would not only safe-guard the long-term productivity of farms, but also improve water clarity and ecosystem health in the central Great Barrier Reef, suggesting a win–win situation (K.E. Fabricus, 2014)

As part of a number of programs that contribute to the Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan

a joint commitment of the Australian and Queensland governments that seeks to improve the quality of water flowing from the catchments adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef – AIMS are also continuing to work to monitor and further understand the impacts of water quality related pressures on tropical marine ecosystems (Australian Institute of Marine Science, 2022b). They report that they are:

using field research, SeaSim experiments and modelling to understand the cumulative and interacting impacts of local pressures, and critical thresholds in the hope that the resilience of local marine ecosystems can be enhanced by reducing local pressures… [and have found that] corals in low nutrient waters have a greater temperature tolerance than those exposed to sediments, fertiliser-derived nitrogen and phosphorus, and pesticides (Australian Institute of Marine Science, 2022a).

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The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) concur stating their position that:

Poor water quality is a major threat to the Great Barrier Reef, particularly inshore areas. Improving the quality of water entering the marine park is critical and urgent. GBRMPA supports actions that reduce loads from all landbased sources (GBRMPA, 2022)

NQ Dry Tropics are also engaged in a project to reduce the impacts of fine sediment from the Burdekin catchment through a range of practical initiatives focussed on stream bank repair, improving the health of key local waterways and wetlands, working with farmers to improve their farm management, and programs aimed at raising community awareness (NQ Dry Tropics, 2022b) The wide array of current research into these issues discussed above (and this is by no means a comprehensive summary of all the work that has been or is being done) clearly remains urgent and important to underpin the future health and sustainable management of the lower Burdekin including its coastal ecosystems and reef. Specific areas that warrant more detailed investigation as part of the further assessment of future upstream bulk water infrastructure developments (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) include:

• assessing the potential benefits and costs of modifying the outlet works at Burdekin Falls Dam to enable active management and bypassing of occasional pulse-style environmental releases that are aligned with improving management of downstream sediment loads, aquifer recharge and sand dam performance, efficiency and lifespan and

• also considering retrofitting a multi-level outlet work structure at Burdekin Falls Dam as a means of improving management of the water quality of dam releases for downstream environmental and water supply purposes.

4.5 Cumulative impacts

Multiple stakeholders have expressed concern about the cumulative impacts of existing and proposed upstream water resource infrastructure and development.

Researchers from James Cook University are of the view that there have been insufficient studies into the long-term impacts on the lower Burdekin of existing dams let alone in relation to the suite of proposed upstream developments that currently under investigation. This view reflects the same theme of over twenty years ago when researchers flagged concerns about the effect of the then tenyear old Burdekin Falls Dam:

However, the coastal environments are of greater concern. The significant geomorphological features of the Burdekin delta, coastline and Cape Bowling Green, are supplied by sand from the Burdekin River. Reductions in delivery of sand, largely through reductions in the frequency of medium-large flow events may pose a serious threat to these coastal features. The impact of such a large dam on sediment transport processes and coastal environments is a critical point, as is its impact on coastal/marine fisheries (Burrows, 1999)

Davis et al pursued a similar argument in 2014:

Cumulative (and ongoing) changes to water regimes and the chemistry of both surface and subsurface waters now pose major threats to both the long-term viability of wetlands and large sections of the sugar industry itself. Substantial shifts in societal perceptions and expectations regarding the value of wetlands and water resources at national and global levels are reflected in the lower Burdekin region. The legacy of earlier perceptions and associated policy decision-making are, however, going to provide some of the most enduring management challenges for lower Burdekin coastal wetlands, and ultimately the viability of irrigation areas themselves (Davis et al., 2014).

Cooper et al also examined the effect of large storages on sediment loads in the lower Burdekin observing that:

When compared to similar large tropical to sub-tropical reservoirs, the Burdekin Falls Dam has a slightly longer reservoir useful life than dams in India and a much longer half-life than for both similar-sized and larger dams in China, Brazil, and Iran. Properties of the Burdekin Falls Dam that promote a longer useful life include a lower trap efficiency, relatively low annual sediment load delivered to the reservoir, limited sediment deposition behind the

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dam wall (and uniform distribution of deposited sediment), and the export of highly turbid annual floodwaters before settling and deposition of any remaining sediment within the reservoir (Cooper et al., 2018)

A 2019 Minister’s performance assessment report into the achievement of the Burdekin water plan’s outcomes identified a range of risks in relation to:

• Maintaining natural variability of flows to support habitats. Habitats are at risk from increased demand and potential new infrastructure, but these are risks that can be addressed under a plan review.

• Ecological connectivity. Impediments to a natural flow regime may have impacts on freshwater inputs to floodplain wetlands, estuaries and the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon. Further targeted science is required.

• Natural flows in the Barratta Creek systems. The plan aims to ensure there are no further impacts on natural flows in these areas. There is observed die-back of riparian vegetation and an overall freshening of the water in the associated estuaries. Regional ecosystem mapping identifies that the remnant riparian vegetation associated with the Barratta Creek system has the biodiversity status ‘of concern’. The science from the Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy will assist in informing understanding of this issue and ways to mitigate risks.

• Natural flows in the Haughton River systems. There is risk to the flow regime required to support fish passage to the mouth of the Haughton River. The science from the Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy will assist in informing understanding of this issue and ways to mitigate risks.

• The minimisation of adverse impacts to riverine morphology. A need has been identified to collect stream crosssection data for watercourses, waterholes, lakes and springs used for taking supplemented water in the BHWSS

• Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy a future plan review may need to accommodate the outcomes of the Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy currently in progress.

• Consistency with Reef 2050 Plan the Reef 2050 was released by the Australian and Queensland governments in July 2018 as an overarching framework for protecting and managing the Reef. The water plan must be consistent with the Reef 2050 (DNRME, 2019)

These have been flagged for review as part of the process of amending the Burdekin water plan prior to its expiry in September 2023 (DNRME, 2019)

Recently, modelling was undertaken as part of the Hells Gates Dam Detailed Business Case to assess the cumulative impacts of a range of combinations of upstream water infrastructure development proposals on the riverine hydrology of the lower Burdekin (Badu Advisory, Unpublished) Although this was useful in assessing the relative extent of hydrologic impacts on downstream environmental flows (as discussed in section 4.3), it was not designed to draw conclusions about the resulting implications for the long-term viability of coastal wetlands or the geomorphological stability of the coastline itself

The key area that warrants more detailed investigation as part of the further assessment of future upstream bulk water infrastructure developments (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) is to examine, in a whole of region context, the cumulative impacts of existing plus various combinations of new water infrastructure developments on riverine and coastal geomorphological considerations This should include utilizing the hydrologic information available from the modelling studies that have been recently completed as part of Detailed Business Cases.

4.6 Institutional, water allocation/management and regulatory arrangements

Williams et al observed in 2009 that “the historical development of three relatively discrete irrigation communities with independent institutional arrangements coupled with an incomplete and fragmented understanding of the groundwater hydrology of the lower Burdekin region, has resulted in an array of institutional and management responsibility that to date has failed to serve the community and yield an integrated management of the surface and groundwater of the lower Burdekin”. They went on to observe that the “lack of strategic management is not due to an absence of hard work and commitment by any of the stakeholders [but] has been caused by stakeholders working on isolated projects with no overall integration coupled with a lack of institutional arrangements and responsibility which drive integrated management of the land and water resources within the lower Burdekin” (Williams et al., 2009).

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At the time, it was recognised by Williams et al that the relationship between the aquifers of the BRIA and the North and South Burdekin Water Board irrigation districts was not well-understood making it difficult to determine the impacts of changed groundwater management in the BRIA on the Water Board irrigation districts or to understand what actions will need to be undertaken in these irrigation districts Although the Lower Burdekin Water Futures (LBWF) group – involving state agencies, local government representatives, Sunwater, LBW (formerly through the NBWB and SBWB), irrigators, researchers and other stakeholders – subsequently emerged as a useful forum to foster discussions between the various players, it appears that the focus and energy of this group has receded in recent years.

Responsibility for the management of surface and groundwater resources in the lower Burdekin remains shared between multiple organisations (BOM, 2022). DRDMW develop and administer the water planning framework within the Burdekin Basin and are responsible for monitoring and enforcing compliance with that framework. They also manage unsupplemented water allocations along the river as well as the monitoring and licensing regime that applies to the groundwater system underlying the BRIA. Sunwater manage the supplemented water allocations. They also own and manage water bulk infrastructure within the Burdekin and Haughton Rivers as well as the channel and drainage system throughout the BRIA including the Giru benefitted groundwater area. LBW are very effective in managing all water distribution and replenishment infrastructure, as well as and water users’ access, within the footprint of the lower Burdekin Delta groundwater system in a coordinated way, although they clearly recognise their limitations in understanding of a range of key issues potentially impacting their future as described in section 4.1.2

Having

a clear focus is a necessary ingredient for any organisation to deliver its core business

However, siloed drivers by themselves are not generally conducive to promoting a joint understanding or collaborative management of the various components of the surface and groundwater resources in the lower Burdekin. Organisational objectives and activities – whether they be in the areas of research, policy development or operations – are tend not to be driven by a sense of shared commitment to achieving integrated outcomes at a whole of landscape and community level An example of this relates to the lack of success this far in promoting the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources in the BRIA as mentioned in section 4.1.1

GBRMPA also support collaborative action observing that:

While there have been improvements in land management practices at the regional level, progress towards land and catchment management targets has been limited.21,22 Effective collaboration and cooperation between government, industry, regional bodies and farmers is essential to achieving these targets (GBRMPA, 2020)

There is therefore an urgency to rekindling a sense of joint understanding, purpose and commitment between organisations and stakeholders towards confirming the water resource related problems needing to be solved in the lower Burdekin and then working together in a coordinated and collaborative way to achieve tangible, measurable and timely improvements at a whole-of-region scale. There may also be value in considering giving accountability for overseeing such efforts to an independent institutional body subject to maintaining strong ties to local stakeholders (both individuals and organisations) As TropWater recently observed in relation to the ecology of the streams, rivers and floodplain wetlands of the Burdekin River system:

Effective management needs to integrate multiple uses via governance of activities and interactions of stakeholders, recognising basic hydrogeomorphic, water quality and ecological needs for adequate conservation (Pearson et al., 2022)

The opportunity for a new upstream bulk water resource development (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) is to establish a renewed funding basis, focus and drive for all stakeholders – organisations and individuals – to reengage in the kind of joint visioning, collaborative thinking and learning, and community-driven action that previously espoused by Williams et al over a decade ago.

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This could also be supported by the engagement processes that will support DRDMW’s development and implementation of an updated water plan for the Burdekin (which is scheduled to expire in September 2023). As water plans are premised on defining and achieving outcomes at the basis scale, there would be significant synergies in aligning the water plan update process with the visioning, thinking, learning and actions contemplated for the lower Burdekin collaborative process as suggested above.

4.7 Climate change and variability

In 2019, the Minister’s performance assessment report into the Burdekin water plan identified climate change of an emerging issue:

Climate projections for 2030 predict an increase in evaporation in the plan area. This may increase water consumption and losses from storages, and may reduce the persistence of waterholes that are used for refugia by stream biota. A new hydrologic model is being developed that will assist in future assessments to build understanding of climate change risks (DNRME, 2019)

Climate change is key issues that will therefore be examined as part of the amendment or review of the water plan in close consultation with the catchment community prior to its expiry in 1 September 2023 (DNRME, 2019).

In the meantime, modelling was undertaken as part of the Hells Gates Dam Detailed Business Case to assess the implications of climate change and/or additional upstream storage size on various hydrologic performance measures. This sensitivity analysis was based on comparing historical climate data with the CSIRO-Mk3.6 GCM climate data which gives the median outcomes across the 11 tested GCMs. The modelling found that:

Assuming a drier climate than that experienced historically reduces headline environmental flow indicators and reduces the hydrologic performance of existing medium priority water allocations in the Burdekin Haughton Water Supply Scheme as well as of new medium priority water allocations supplied from Hells Gates Dam… [but] halving the full supply volume for Hells Gates Dam would increase the potential impact of a drier climate on the performance of medium priority water allocations The size of the dam was found not to change the extent of the impact of climate change on mean or median annual flows at the end of system (node 1) (Badu Advisory, Unpublished).

Testing the potential implications of climate change in this way suggests that additional water storage and outlet work capacity can assist in significantly improving water supply scheme resilience in a drier climate scenario

In reality, climate change is likely to manifest in terms of even more complex changes to seasonal and inter-annual patterns, as well as the frequency, duration and intensity of flood events and droughts Although such changes are more difficult to model, the Department of Environment and Science are progressing the development of more sophisticated techniques for assessing the potential effects of climate variability and change All water users – and the riverine environment –are likely to be sensitive to such changes including, for example, the reduced frequency but increased intensity of future riverine flood events, as well as the extended duration of extreme drought events.

There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that understanding the implications of natural climate variability may be of greater urgency and importance in Queensland river systems than climate change. As Kiem et al observe:

The instrumental record is short (~60-130 years) and fails to encompass enough climate variability to allow the calculation of robust statistics around the baseline risk of extreme events (i.e. multi-year droughts, decadal periods with clustering of major flood events). This climate variability is documented pre-1900 in paleoclimate records from sources such as corals, tree-rings, freshwater and marine sediments… A high resolution and highly correlated paleoclimate record from the Law Dome ice cores in Antarctica exists… [that] has identified eight mega-droughts (lasting from 5-39 years) during 1000-2009 AD. Most importantly, the paleoclimate information confirms that the post-1900 instrumental period (i.e. the period on which all water resources infrastructure, policy, operation rules and strategies is based) does not capture the full range of variability that has occurred.

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Recent work also shows that, out to 2050 at least, the impacts of natural variability dwarf even the worst-case climate change scenarios (i.e. obtained from Global Climate Models run under the highest emission scenarios) (Kiem et al., 2020)

The opportunities for a new upstream bulk water resource development (such as the Hells Gate Dam Project) are:

• to quantify the potential benefits that additional storage capacity might offer as a means of managing potential variations in climate that are more extreme than observed in the historical record (i.e. less frequent but more intense flood events interspersed with drought events of extended duration) and

• to conceptualise the design and desired performance of existing and new bulk water infrastructure developments in terms of regional water grids that draw together multiple sources of water (including catchment surface water storages, groundwater and manufactured water etc.) and inter-connectors (using bulk water pipelines) to provide overall reliability of a water supply portfolio that matches users’ needs.

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Appendix A – References

Australian Institute of Marine Science (2022a) Cumulative impacts and ecosystem resilience. <https://www.aims.gov.au/cumulative-impacts>.

Australian Institute of Marine Science (2022b) Monitoring water quality. Viewed 30 June 2022, <https://www.aims.gov.au/monitoring>.

Badu Advisory (Unpublished) Water Allocation Strategy for the Proposed Hells Gates Dam Project.

BOM (2022) Burdekin: Key findings for the water account period 1 July 2020–30 June 2021. Viewed 30 June 2022, <http://www.bom.gov.au/water/nwa/2021/burdekin/index.shtml>.

Burdekin Shire Council (2022) Water security for Burdekin questioned.

Burrows DW (1999) An Initial Environmental Assessment of Water Infrastructure Options in the Burdekin Catchment. Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research - James Cook University. Available online:

<https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/nqcc2/pages/1587/attachments/original/160645 8550/2.1.1_BURROWS_etal_1999_updated_%282%29.pdf?1606458550>.

Cooper M, Lewis SE, Stieglitz TC and Smithers SG (2018) Variability of the useful life of reservoirs in tropical locations: A case study from the Burdekin Falls Dam, Australia. International Journal of Sediment Research 33(2), 93-106. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsrc.2017.11.002

Davis A, Lewis S, O'Brien D, Bainbridge Z, Bentley C and Mueller J (2014) Water Resource Development and High Value Coastal Wetlands on the Lower Burdekin Floodplain, Australia. Estuaries of Australia in 2050 and beyond, 223-245. Doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-7019-5_13.

DNRME (2019) Minister's performance assessment report (2019) : Water Plan (Burdekin Basin) 2007. Available online:

<https://qldgov.softlinkhosting.com.au/liberty/opac/search.do?mode=ADVANCED&corporat ion=DERM&limit=All&action=search&anonymous=true&queryTerm=wrpburdekin+wrpann&i ncludeNonPhysicalItems=true&resourceCollection=All&branch=All&operator=AND>.

GBRMPA (2020) Position Statement - Water quality. Available online:

<https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/retrieve/3a9336c3-b16d-457c-a815f06fda711c36/v0-Position-statement-water-quality.pdf>.

GBRMPA (2022) Land-based run-off. Viewed 30 June 2022, <https://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/ourwork/threats-to-the-reef/declining-water-quality>.

K.E. Fabricus ML, S. Weeks, J. Brodie (2014) The effects of river run-off on water clarity across the central Great Barrier Reef. Marine Pollution Bulletin 84(1-2).

Kiem A, Vance T, Tozer C, Roberts J, Pozza R, Vítkovský J, Smolders K and Curran M (2020) Learning from the past – Using palaeoclimate data to better understand and manage drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 29, 100686. Doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100686.

Lower Burdekin Water (2021) Annual Report 2020-21. Available online: <http://lowerburdekinwater.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2020-21-LowerBurdekin-Water-Annual-Report-Letter-of-Compliance-and-Appendices.pdf>.

Lower Burdekin Water (2022) Welcome to Lower Burdekin Water. Viewed 20 June 2022, <http://lowerburdekinwater.com.au>.

Munck G (2018) Burdekin Channel capacity upgrade feasibility study - milestone 3 final report. Available online: <https://qldgov.softlinkhosting.com.au:443/liberty/OpacLogin?mode=BASIC&openDetail=tr ue&corporation=DERM&action=search&queryTerm=uuid%3D%220ec610bb0a0200f01fa004 1f00204a44%22&operator=OR&url=%2Fopac%2Fsearch.do>.

NQ Dry Tropics (2022a) Lower Burdekin Catchment Ground and Surface Water Interaction Issues. Viewed 20 June 2022, <https://nrm.nqdrytropics.com.au/water/lower-burdekin-subcatchment-ground-surface-water-interaction-issues/>.

High-level review of lower Burdekin benefits and impacts associated with the future water infrastructure development in the Burdekin catchment –3 July 2022

NQ Dry Tropics (2022b) Reducing Fine Sediment By Maintaining and Restoring Burdekin Stream Banks and Coastal Wetlands (2018-2022). Viewed 30 June 2022, <https://www.nqdrytropics.com.au/projects/waterways-wetlands-and-coastsprogram/reducing-burdekin-sediment-2018-2022/>.

Pearson RG, Davis AM and Birtles RA (2022) The Burdekin River: a review of its ecology, conservation and management. Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research (TropWATER) James Cook University. Available online: <https://www.tropwater.com/wpcontent/uploads/2022/02/22-06-The-Burdekin-River-A-review-of-its-ecology-conservationand-management.pdf>.

Queensland Competition Authority (2020) Final report: Rural irrigation price review 2020–24 Part B: Sunwater. Available online: <http://www.qca.org.au/wpcontent/uploads/2020/02/irrigation-price-review-part-b-sunwater-final-report.pdf>.

Queensland Government (2017) Hydrology of the Lower Burdekin ground water and surface water and their interaction. In: Department of Natural Resources and Mines (ed.).

Queensland Government (2021a) Lower Burdekin Catchment Story. Viewed 30 June 2022, <https://wetlandinfo.des.qld.gov.au/wetlands/ecology/processessystems/water/catchment-stories/transcript-lower-burdekin.html>.

Queensland Government (2021b) Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy. Viewed 20 June 2022, <https://www.rdmw.qld.gov.au/water/consultations-initiatives/lower-burdekingroundwater-strategy>.

Queensland Reconstruction Authority (2022) Lower Burdekin River Catchment Local Knowledge Map. Queensland Government. Viewed 30 June 2022, <https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/202106/lower_burdekin_river_catchment_-_local_knowledge_map_may_2021.pdf>.

State of Queensland (2017) Lower Burdekin Groundwater Strategy Project Discussion Paper: August 2017. In: Department of Natural Resources and Mines (ed.).

Sunwater Limited (2021) Final Service and Performance Plan 2021/22. Available online: <https://www.sunwater.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Home/Schemes/BurdekinHaughton/2022_Final_Service_and_Performance_Plan_Burdekin_Bulk_Water_Service_Cont ract.pdf>.

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