Circana - Insight

It all adds up…

This month, Melissa looks at toys retailing for under £10, price points that can account for a surprising proportion of volume sales.

The average selling price (ASP) of toys in the UK in 2023 was £10.78, up 14% from 2019 when it was £9.46. This has been driven by several factors including changes to product mix (with an increase in the number of higher priced categories and products being sold) as well as the impact of inflation and price changes, in the last two year especially. As toys over £30 account for a quarter of all value sales, there is naturally much discussion on higher price items, and pocket money or lower priced toys are often over-looked despite accounting for a larger proportion of volume sales.

Toys sold under £10 made up 63.4% of all units sold in 2023, and this is particularly prominent outside of Q4. From January to September, under-£10 toys account for 70% of all units sold, and this drops to 52% in the final quarter of the year.

Across the total toy market, the best-selling toy under £10 by volume is Hot Wheels Singles, which is also the number three best-selling item by value across the total toy market YTD February 2024. There are also strong unit sales from Play Doh Classic Colour Tub and Lego MiniFigures. The largest category by volume of toys under £10 is Miscellaneous Toys, which covers a vast array of products including Zuru’s Mini Brands and MGA’s Miniverse as best sellers. These items are also collectible; the lower price points help encourage repeat purchase and collectability is very prominent factor at this sub-£10 level. Bubble Toys & Solutions is the next largest subclass, with Funrise’s Gazillion Bubbles and HTI Bubble Wands

driving volume sales. Traditional Plush is the third largest subclass under £10, and the fastest growing - both in 2023 and so far this year. There are a range of items performing well and driving growth, including the 8” Squishmallows, Ty’s Beanie Boos and Zuru’s Rainbocorns and Snackles. Strong licensed lines selling well include Bluey Best Mate 8” Plush, the Paw Patrol 3.4” Plush Assortment and Super Mario 9” Plush. Non-Strategic Trading Cards and Collectible Stickers is the fourth largest subclass under £10, with both Panini and Topps cards and stickers driving the category.

For the first two months of 2024, outside of the categories already mentioned, we’ve seen strong volume growth under £10 from Card Games and Junior Building Sets. Card Games has been driven by Uno and Monopoly Deal as well as Cartamundi’s Royal Flush Playing Cards and Asmodee’s Taco Cat Goat Cheese Pizza. In Junior Building Sets, the Duplo Wind Turbine and Electric Car set has performed well.

As noted, collectability helps drive some of these lower priced items and across the total toy market, Collectibles accounted for 14.5% of value and 20.9% of volume in 2023. Collectibles had a very strong year in 2023, adding £10m sales to reach £288m overall, with many retailers increasing the range of collectible items available in store. The biggest properties overall for Collectibles are Pokémon, Squishmallows, Funko Pop and L.O.L. Surprise! Some of the strongest new properties for Collectibles included Miniverse, Snackles, Disney Lorcana and Funko Bitty Pops, showing the diversity of the Collectibles category.

Collectibles are often reliant on new series or range updates throughout the year to keep consumer interest and drive demand. Across total toys last year, sales from new toy items accounted for 27% of value, but there were 10% fewer new items than in 2022. Looking back to 2019, there were over 32,000 new toys launched and in 2023, there were less than half of that figure. Collectible ranges can help reinvigorate the new item share of the market and drive excitement and repeat purchase from the consumers.

The start of 2024 remains challenging for the industry with value sales down -6% and volume down -11%, however it is worth remembering that January and February only account for 10% of annual toys sales in both value and volume. In order to revitalise the UK Toy market in 2024, a focus on lower priced items would help drive volume, especially outside peak season. Given the ongoing cost of living challenges, these lower priced items may well feel more attractive to consumers. There are a number of new launches still to come for the year, so the combination of lower priced items, collectability and newness should mean that the UK Toy market can finish the year stronger than the first two months.

Item Progression:

The new Jungle Pups Vehicle assortment from Spin Master was the best item progression across total toys in February and the number two selling item in Preschool Toys, behind the Paw Patrol Vehicle and Pup Assortment. Paw Patrol remains the number one property within Pre-school Toys YTD February, as it has been for the last five years and currently has the top three best-selling SKUs in the category. While Pre-school Toys accounts for 74% of total Paw Patrol sales, the start of the year has seen strong growth for the property in Traditional Plush and Children’s Puzzles as well, both up double-digits.

Fastest Growing Properties

Despite a challenging start to 2024, there are some properties that continue to outperform the market and show growth versus 2023. The fastest growing property is Lego Icons, which includes the Botanical range. This range continues to be a strong performer for Lego at the start of the year, leaning heavily into the Valentines Day and Mothering Sunday elements which are strong for natural flower gifting. The Lego Icons Bouquet of Roses is the best-selling items so far this year, with an average selling price (ASP) of £52.21, while the Lego Roses Building Sets at a lower ASP of £10.70 is the number ten best-seller. Lego has enjoyed a strong start to the year with four of the top ten best gaining properties including Lego Star Wars, Creator 3-in-1 and Lego Disney Classic. Star Wars growth was through the Clone Trooper and Battle Droid Pack and Darth Vader Mech, while Creator 3-in-1 growth is driven by new launches such as the Retro Camera and Magical Unicorn. Lego Disney Classic has also performed well with the Disney 100 Tribute Camera Set.

MGA’s Miniverse also continues to outperform the market, with the Make It Mini Food Dinner Valentines Day line supplementing the the regular range during February.

Licences that performed well in 2023 have continued to grow at the start of the year: TMNT is still performing well after the movie release last summer, with the Ninja Reveal Role Play Items now number two, behind the Mutant Mayhem Figures Assortment. Gabby’s Dollhouse continues to gain sales, with the construction range adding to the Pre-school lines available. Sonic the Hedgehog has been steadily gaining sales over the last two years and is the seventh fastest gaining so far in 2024, ahead of the third movie launch at the end of the year. Sales are more than double this year versus last year, with Heroes of Goo Jit Zu and X-Shot Skins contributing to the Building Sets and Action Figures performance.