From the publisher

The ongoing shipping crisis continues to make headlines across the globe, with consumer media finally waking up to the potential implications for the public at large. It is now a foregone conclusion that the shipping industry will post record profits this year – at least $80b and possibly even as high as $100b, more than treble the all-time record. As container prices hit the dizzy heights of $20,000, it turns out that hiking prices when your customers have no alternative but to pay up is a solid strategy. Even if you are one of the lucky ones able to successfully ship product from the Far East to the UK, there is the little matter of getting it from warehouses into shops, with the current shortage of lorry drivers making headline news in recent weeks.

So, where is all this heading? Rumours that Philip Schofield’s ‘How to spend it well at Christmas’ is to be renamed ‘How to find a toy at Christmas’ have not been officially confirmed, but I think we can safely assume that there may well be shortages. Indeed, as I write this column on a glorious warm, sunny day in the middle of July, a segment has just been aired on a high-profile morning TV show, encouraging consumers to shop early for their Christmas toys to avoid disappointment. Last year, a similar communication strategy worked well for the toy community, so let’s hope the message gets across loud and clear once more.

The other upshot from the ongoing logistics and production challenges is that prices will surely have to rise? While I appreciate the complexity of the situation, and the concerns over the potential for an increase in prices to impact sales volumes, I don’t believe that toy suppliers and retailers facing legitimate cost pressures should feel guilty about realigning prices. Could we even see some ‘sacred’ price points needing to be reassessed? Even if price rises led to a small drop in sales, retailers would be making more money on each item sold, as the gross margin would be higher.

And what if sales don’t actually decline at all? I remember one retail owner admitting he was furious when a well-known toy supplier increased the price of a popular item by £1 a while back, and how annoyed he was when it didn’t make the slightest bit of difference to the rate of sale, having told the supplier the move would see sales drop off. Sometimes, we all fear the worst. There is a strong argument to suggest that toy prices have remained artificially low for a while. Given that many parents have saved money working from home and not being able to go abroad on holiday, maybe it’s time to see what happens if we adjust prices to reflect the new cost realities of doing business in a postpandemic, post-Brexit world?

Thankfully, all the evidence continues to point to consumer demand for toys remaining robust. This month’s NPD column assesses the sales data from the first half of the year and – spoiler alert – it is reassuring to see that sales have held up remarkably well, both in comparison with last year and also 2019. This month’s issue also includes a series of extensive product category features – STEM Toys, Wooden Toys and Plush, as well as a special look at the Fidget Toy market which has literally exploded this year. There are plenty of exciting new product launches coming over the next few months, and marketing campaigns are already swinging into action to drive interest in the new introductions – and we’ll be keeping you up to date with all the latest developments in our forthcoming print issues and on our website.

There is also the tantalizing prospect of the return of trade shows over the coming weeks. This month, we offer a sneak preview of what will be on show from toy companies at the Autumn Fair in Birmingham this September, while the Independent Toy & Gift Show is also due to take place a few weeks later, welcoming members of plaY-room, the toy division of the AIS buying group, as well as other specialist independent toy retail guests from across the UK. Of course, if the last year has taught us anything, it is that with 6-8 weeks to go before both shows are due to open, there is still a lot that can happen between now and then. However, with restrictions officially due to ease any day now, we can only hope that we are about to see some light at the end of the tunnel with regard to trade events being able to return in person.

We’ll be back next month with our legendary Games & Puzzles supplement, the most exhaustive guide to the category you’ll see anywhere this autumn, as well as an issue packed with hot new ranges and a round-up of pre-Christmas marketing campaigns. Hopefully, by the time the issue lands on 1st September, the countdown for the festive season will be in full swing. All the key ingredients are in place – we just need to make sure that the general public are aware that leaving it to the last minute to make their festive toy purchases might be a risk they’ll ultimately regret.