Insight - Circana

What will the second half bring?

This month, Melissa reviews the first half of 2023, revealing which categories have shown the strongest growth, and looks ahead to how the second half of the year might pan out.

Now the first half of 2023 has come and gone, it’s a good time to review the year so far. While the total UK Toy Market is down -2% in value and -4% in units YTD June 2023, there are some areas of the market that continue to buck the overall trend. Overall, there are four supercategories gaining value in the first half of 2023 – Games & Puzzles, Plush, Building Sets and Explorative & Other Toys.

Games and Puzzles is up +9%, driven by Strategic Trading Card games which is up an impressive +38%. This makes it the fastest growing subclass in the UK this year, with passionate fans of all ages. The top property is Pokémon which is also growing double digits. This category has high level of new releases, encouraging collectability and repeat purchases, as seen with the new series of Pokémon, the recent release of Magic the Gathering Lord of Rings, Match Attax’s latest season and coming soon, Ravensburger’s Disney Lorcana series.

The Plush supercategory is the second fastest growing, based on valued gained, and is up +11% in value this year compared to the same period a year ago. This strong performance comes on top of doubledigit growth in both 2022 and 2021. It is currently the sixth largest supercategory in the UK in terms of revenue, just behind Dolls and ahead of Explorative Toy and Action Figures. Plush includes both Traditional plush - soft, touchable and squeezable products- and Special Feature & Interactive Playmates, which may sing, dance or interact, but are covered in a soft material. Traditional plush accounts for 85% of sales during the first half of the year, however come Q4, Special Feature Plush share often increases to a third and frequently includes some of the peak season’s best-sellers (such as Little Live Pets

My Mama Surprise Guinea Pig in 2022). This seasonal split is reflected in pricing with the higher price points over £30+ doubling share in Q4 compared to the first half of the year. Overall, the key price point for Plush is £10-£19.99, which accounts for over 36% of value sales.

The fastest growing property in Plush is Squishmallows, now the number one property within Plush and the number eight property across total toys, with a combination of own characters and new licensed characters contributing to growth. Ty and Zuru’s Rainbocorn are the number two and three properties in Plush respectively, while there are a number of new and classic plush lines growing. Licences such as Pokémon, Nintendo, Minecraft and

Bluey are all performing well, echoing the success of these properties across total toys. Core Plush properties that are growing include Paddington, which continues to grow after a strong 2022 and Care Bears, which has grown more than 40% so far this year. There is also growth from newer properties, with Gabby’s Dollhouse expanding into Plush and Aphmau the top new plush property so far this year.

Building Sets remains one of the most popular categories in the UK toy market, currently the largest supercategory in the UK, up +2% YTD June with strong growth from licences such as Star Wars, Marvel and Minecraft, as well as Lego Speed Champion and Lego Icon brands. The category has the highest level of new items, with over 50% of value sales coming from new items in the last year. Explorative & Other Toys is also up +3% in value with collectibles such as 5 Surprise Mini Brands and Panini Stickers driving growth, as well as the hot new launch from MGAMiniverse.

New items and innovation are always important to the toy market and this year, 27% of sales in the first half of the year are from new lines with no sales history in the same period one year ago. The categories currently showing the greatest growth, such as Plush and Strategic Trading Cards, all have new launches that are performing well. As we start the second half of the year, there is usually a pick-up in new launches heading into Autumn and Winter, ready for Christmas season. Last year, new launches after July accounted for 12% of the annual SKU count and 10% of the annual value, despite only being available for less than half the year. There are still some highly anticipated launches to come this year, such as Furby and Lorcana, which have the potential to reinvigorate their categories and possibly the whole UK Toy market. Of course, there’s often a line that performs better than expected and makes its mark over the season, so we’ll keep watching all of the new launches closely.

Item Progression:

With the sun finally appearing across most of June, there was a surge in sales of Water Blasters, up +47% for June 2023 vs. June 22 and now one of the fastest growing subclasses in UK Toys YTD. X-Shot Skins Water Fast Fill Hyperload was the fastest gaining item across total toys, while both X-Shot and Nerf water blasters grew double-digits for the month as parents and kids combined play and cooling down in the hot weather. It wasn’t just Water Blasters in growth though, with total Outdoor and Sports Toys up +12% for June and Pools, Water/Sand Toys and Bubble Toys all driving category growth as consumers took advantage of the prolonged period of good weather.

Top 10 Fastest Growing Licences - UK Toys

Licensing accounts for 31% of UK Toys sales YTD June 2023, reaching a value of £213m and has been outperforming the total toy market over the last three years, currently growing +3%. A wide range of licences are currently popular. The largest licence in the toy market is also the fastest growing: Star Wars, adding £3.6m sales YTD. Star Wars continues to benefit from passionate fans of all ages, as well as continual new items to keep the range fresh.

Movies and streaming content continues to be a big driver of toys with three of the fastest growing licences so far this year associated with a movie release in the first half of the year: Fast and Furious, Guardians of the Galaxy and Super Mario. Fast and Furious sales are split between Building Sets, in Lego Speed Champion and Technic ranges, and Simba’s traditional vehicles. For Super Mario, growth is driven by Traditional Plush, Action Figure Collectibles and Children’s Games, while Guardians of the Galaxy grew with Building Sets and Action Figure Collectibles.

Streaming content has seen Gabby’s Dollhouse and Bluey show continued growth in the highly competitive Pre-school arena. While Pre-school Figures and Playsets accounts for over half of Bluey sales, there has been strong growth in the first six months of 2023 with Plush, Pre-school Electronic Learning and Pre-school Role Play. For Gabby’s Dollhouse, Pre-school Figures and Playsets are the brand’s core category, but Large Dolls and Traditional Plush are also contributing to growth. Outside of Strategic Trading Cards, Pokémon is also showing strong growth with Action Figure Collectibles and Plush, while National Soccer Clubs is driven by Non-Strategic Trading Cards and Collectible Stickers.

Disney All Other is showing growth with the D100 Lego Minifigures remaining a strong seller, as well as 5 Surprise Mini Brand Disney Store and Squishmallows range. With more content being released in the second half of 2023 from strong licences such as Barbie, TMNT, Paw Patrol and more, licences look set to continue to be a key area of the UK Toy Market for the foreseeable future.