Insight
To monitor what’s happening in the ever-changing toy market, Circana collects point-of-sale information from all major toy retailers. This information, combined with our analysts’ industry perspectives, delivers a comprehensive view of what’s selling and where. We also field over 12m consumer surveys annually to help industry leaders understand why consumers shop where they shop and why they buy what they buy. For more information visit www.circana.com.
Twas the weeks before Christmas… Rory looks at whether the sluggish start to the festive season should be a cause for alarm or whether we should be hopeful that consumers are looking to spend late and give the market a bumper December.
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s we approach the most important trading weeks of the year, the UK toy market is -5% in value according to YTD October 2023 data. However, it is -10% for the first five weeks of the peak season. Obviously, we don’t want the trend to be negative at the most important time of the year. There are a number of factors to consider when looking at the current trends, with the cost of living continuing to impact toy trends, although the story can often be quite different when you delve below the surface.
However, there is still growth within these categories; Barbie continues to perform well following the movie release in July, while Paw Patrol is at No.1 in Infant/ Toddler & Pre-school Toys after the movie hit screens at the start of October. The volume decline has been heavily impacted by the fact the World Cup was in winter in 2022, so sticker sales were extremely strong at this time last year. The World Soccer property is down -22% in value but -56% in volume versus the five weeks of 2022, and that is having an impact on overall trends.
For the first five weeks of peak season, although the value trend is -10% it is also worth noting that the volume trend is -17%. This equates to nearly 4m less toys bought over these five weeks, and it’s nearly 8m less if we compare to the same period in 2020. (This was when we returned to lockdown in November though; there was a lot of early Christmas shopping with so much uncertainty around Covid restrictions in December). There are a couple of supercategories in growth, namely Plush and Youth Electronics, but all others are in decline. Two supercategories are impacting this decline the most: Infant/Toddler & Pre-school Toys, and Dolls - these two supercategories make up over 40% of the overall decline.
Thankfully, there are some bright spots, including the Plush category, which continues to perform well: it has grown +7% in value and +6% in volume compared to this period last year. Squishmallows remains the key growth property with an increase of +33% adding over £1m versus last year. This growth is largely from the key Jazwares lines, but a larger share of overall value is coming from licensed items, with licences making up around 20% of overall value in the start of peak season. In addition to the core Plush range, Monopoly Squishmallows in Games, Squishmallows stickers from Panini and Squishmallows Puzzles from Ravensburger are all selling well. Another area of growth is Youth Electronics, which is
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Rory Partis
Director UK Toys, EuroToys Circana up +1% for the first five weeks of peak season, well ahead of the overall market trend. The Kidi range from VTech is the top property here, up +2%, while the top new property is Bitzee from Spin Master. This new digital pet item launched in July in the UK. After a strong start, it is the No.1 item in Youth Electronics for the peak season period so far. The average RRP on Bitzee is £31.35 - a great price point to perform well in December, the item has already been featuring regularly in the top 10 items in the total market in recent weeks. There is no getting away from the fact that the start to peak season has not been what we would have wanted, but we can look ahead to December with a degree of optimism. Last year, Q4 was flat, and this was driven by a +2% trend in December as consumers left their toy shopping late. There is an argument that this was a return to normal after a couple of years where we got used to earlier shopping due to Covid. Expectations are that this year, sales will be late again, and we could see a bumper week 51 with a full week of shopping leading up to Christmas Day. With a fifth of all market value still to come in December, this month’s trading can make all the difference to the year end results. Based on a recent survey carried out by Circana, we found out that 43% of shoppers don’t even start their Christmas shopping until December. The same survey revealed that around two thirds of consumers plan to spend the same or more on Christmas this year. We will of course be keeping a close eye on weekly trends at Circana during this all-important time.
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Toy World 30
