Letter from America - Rick Derr

Peak season - bring it on…

After 20 years working at A.C. Nielsen/D&B Research Company, Rick opened the first Learning Express Toys franchise in the Chicago area in 1996, and then became a sub-franchiser, opening 10 more stores. Although leaving the corporate environment behind, he has combined his expertise in data and numbers with a passion for the toy retail space. This month, Rick looks at his September predictions for top sellers to see how sales have panned out.

As I write this, it’s roughly 40 days till the big day. The “season” is not the season we all remember 10, 20 or 30 years ago. Today, customers view their holiday shopping thus: “delayed till I must buy”; “I can just click and get a gift to my house in hours” or “it’s the economy, stupid!”. Black Friday has lost its focus, as sales start in October and continue every week thereafter until Christmas - even more so here in the USA.

But this is our 29th Christmas, and this year, our friends will be celebrating Hanukkah on the same day. Chrismukkah is a pop-culture portmanteau neologism referring to the merging of Christianity's Christmas and Judaism's Hanukkah, which only occurs about every 15 years. So, we are expecting a late and busy shopping pattern for the last 10 days before Christmas, which typically equates to 50% of our December sales.

See the chart for the top toys we predicted in September 2024. How are they doing?

Despite being out of stock for two months, Stitch Real F/X puppet returned to become what is likely to be our top selling item (in dollars) for 2024. Stocks are good right now, and I do believe a new category of puppetronics has been created by Wow! Stuff.

The Jellyfish Speaker (Trend Tech Brands) continues to be a best seller at its $39.99 price point. This is a winner - many customers have purchased multiples to give as gifts.

Air Toobz (Fat Brain Toys) is in its second year and has topped the Learning Express leader board for most of 2024. At $150, with add-ons at $60 and $25, this is a $250 gift and will easily hold down a top 5 finish.

Have you heard moms need quiet in the house? The Ninja Silent Basketball craze (whisper it) has been a hit. Two sizes and a hoop to shoot at, and prices from $15$35, make this an easy pick-up gift that will be in our top 10 for sure.

Moving up one to two places is the TikTok viral Vending Machine from Melissa and Doug (Spin Master). Indies were given a special price this year and this strategy is paying dividends as we are $30 less than Amazon, which will sell out. I hear they tried to order 15,000 more but the answer was ‘no’, too late for Melissa and Doug. These types of partnerships give us a chance to draw traffic and make enough margins to survive, so thank you M&D!

Sticki Rolls (Sky Castle Toys) was launched in late September and rocketed up the top sellers list. A journal has been added to store the stickers, plus a gift set, which are proving popular holiday gifts. The viral marketing pre-launch was impressive and perhaps a lesson for other toy manufacturers to follow.

PlayTabs and Tiles are another Fat Brain Toys winner. A modular sensory toy, PlayTabs lets kids build a unique experience packed with fine motor challenges, visual fascination and cause-and-effect discoveries. The modular system means prices start at $29.99 and can go up to $90.

My last top ten toy is ZipString. Hamleys is demoing and, according to ZipString, turns 60-80 units a day. We started to sell in July and have seen month-over-month growth. The product was featured on Shark Tank here in the US (no deal made) but the resulting PR and new glow in the dark Luma Zipstring have taken this product to another level.

Gecko Marble Run (Thames&Kosmos) is holding its own but has been affected by Amazon selling at a 50% discount. And, finally, 2023’s Bitzee performance is not being replicated with the newest versions (Disney and Magical) – it is selling ok, but not at the levels of last year. Hey, one phenomenal year is better than none!

I must note that while these top individual items are selling well, the Lego brand is our top vendor partner overall. In seasonal lines, Lego Advent Calendars have diminished in sales, but two Christmas builds, the Holiday Tree and Santa’s Sleigh, have more than made up the difference.

Happy Holidays from the Toy Man and the USA.