Circana Insight

Stiff upper lip!

Tough economic conditions in 2023 mean that the UK Toy market has struggled to reach growth, but as everything is reset for 2024, there is potential for the year ahead.

It’s challenging to write a review of 2023 UK Toy market performance when, at time of writing, the biggest sales weeks of the year are still to come; week 50 and 51, which can account for up to 11% of annual toy sales. Given the tough economic conditions in 2023 across all industries, even a strong last three weeks will not be enough to push the UK Toy market into growth for the year. Based on the sales data available, the UK Toy market is down -5% in value YTD November 2023 and -9% in volume. This is not only in-line with the rest of the Europe, which is down -5% in value, but also represents a stronger performance than the US toy market, which is down -9% in value for the first eleven months of the year. In addition, UK toys is still up +1.6% on YTD November 2019, which was pre-Covid, as the average selling price (ASP) increased from £8.70 to £10.32 over the same time-period.

This increase in ASP is not purely down to inflation, but also as a result of product mix changes in the UK toy market over the last four years. Building Sets is a key category which has grown from 12.7% of the UK toy market to 17.2% and has the highest ASP for a supercategory in the UK. One of the strongest declines for the UK market in 2023 was in the Outdoor and Sports Toys supercategory, which is down -16% in value, due to the wet weather impacting sales in July and August, usually the strongest months of the year for the category.

While the top-line performance for UK toys is down versus 2022, there were several areas of the market which saw a strong performance last year. Licences continued to outperform the rest of the market, accounting for 32% of all toy sales. This strong performance spanned many categories, especially Building Sets, Dolls, Plush, Vehicles and Explorative and Other Toys where licences have gained share. Overall, Pokémon, Disney All Other (including Disney 100 lines), Star Wars and TMN Turtles have all performed well, while in the pre-school arena, Gabby’s Dollhouse and Bluey continued to grow.

Over the last four years, properties with TV/DVD/Digital Streaming content remain the top entertainment source, accounting for 18% of sales in 2023. Pre-school properties dominated this area of the market with Paw Patrol, Peppa Pig, Gabby’s Dollhouse and Bluey top performers along with Disney Princess and Monster High. Properties with movies have also grown in the last three years, with Barbie and TMNT the top winners in this space for 2023, alongside DC and Marvel Universe constant offerings. The biggest growth - not only in the last year but over the past four years - has been from Video/Digital Games properties, which has more than doubled its share within UK toys. Pokémon and Minecraft remain the top properties in this sector. Although a smaller share of the market, Sports related properties have seen consistent growth, particularly with football related items.

UK Entertainment Type Attributes

Over the last four years, properties with TV/DVD/Digital Streaming content remain the top entertainment source, accounting for 18% of sales in 2023. Pre-school properties dominated this area of the market with Paw Patrol, Peppa Pig, Gabby’s Dollhouse and Bluey top performers along with Disney Princess and Monster High. Properties with movies have also grown in the last three years, with Barbie and TMNT the top winners in this space for 2023, alongside DC and Marvel Universe constant offerings. The biggest growth - not only in the last year but over the past four years - has been from Video/Digital Games properties, which has more than doubled its share within UK toys. Pokémon and Minecraft remain the top properties in this sector. Although a smaller share of the market, Sports related properties have seen consistent growth, particularly with football related items.

Collectibles enjoyed a strong performance, growing +6% in value in 2023 and accounting for 22% of all volume purchased. This was driven by the popularity of Pokémon trading cards, Squishmallows and continued sales of Funko Pop!, L.O.L Surprise and 5 Surprise. The micro trend boosted the category in 2023 with MGA’s Miniverse one of the top new properties of the year.

Another area of the UK toy market that saw a strong performance last year was Kidults (sales of toys for consumers Aged 12+). Kidults accounted for 31% of sales in the first three-quarters of the year, up from 25% in the same time period in 2019 and growing +10% in value in 2023. Kidult growth has driven some the stronger performing categories in 2023, specifically Plush, Games and Building Sets.

Despite the challenges in 2023, there are always parts of the UK toy market that out-perform the total performance, as Collectibles, Kidults and Entertainment-based properties have shown. As we enter 2024, everything is reset and with the host of new ranges entering the market, there is the potential to encourage consumers to try new properties, new items and new innovation, and grow different parts of the market for the year ahead.

Property Progression:

In Q4, new launches and innovative new items start to pick up momentum and sales, as demonstrated by Golden Bear’s Smart Ball Soccer Bot. This item leapt into the top 20 best sellers across the total toy market for the month of November and was the number one item in the Sports Activities and Games category, despite weighted distribution of just 49%. Other Sport Activities & Games performing well and growing in November included Golden Bear’s Smart Counter Ball, Hy-Pro’s Top Air Hockey 20” and Character Option’s Stay Active Jump It Wipe Out.

Fastest Growing Licences

Across the UK Toy market there were 28 subclasses that gained value in 2023 compared to 2022 sales, with the largest value gain in Traditional Plush. Within the category, Squishmallows was the largest gaining property, as well as the largest gaining property across total toys YTD November 2022. However, there was also growth from Zuru’s Rainbocorns brand and the Keeleco range from Keel Toys, as well as licensed plush growth with Pokémon, Bluey and Paddington Bear all gaining sales.

Strategic Trading Card Games also enjoyed a strong year, with Pokémon cards continuing to grow, while Magic the Gathering and the new release from Ravensburger, Disney Lorcana, also contributed to category growth. Non-Strategic Trading Cards and Collectibles Stickers saw growth with both Adrenalyn and Match Attax from Topps, as well as Super Mario stickers from Panini.

Standard Building Sets grew for the fourth year in a row with licences such as Star Wars and Harry Potter continuing to perform well, in addition to Lego Icons and Lego Speed Champions growing in 2023. The Mini Vehicles category has grown for the past four years, with both Hot Wheels and Monster Jam contributing to growth, as well as Matchbox.

Although a small category, Electronic Handheld Games had a good year, up +56% with the TapTap Smart Fidget Assortment from Character Options and Beat Blast from Vivid Goliath driving growth. Pre-school Talking and Sound is a category that has more than doubled sales in the last three years, largely due to the growth of Tonies. Miscellaneous Toys has also seen growth over the last four years, with MGA’s Miniverse driving sales in 2023, as well as Oosh and LankyBox contributing to sales gain.