Opinion - Generation Media

Missing: 50% of UK children - can you help?

This month, Jonathan examines what will become of TV in the children’s media landscape, and how data will be more crucial than ever in optimising marketing campaigns.

Once upon a time, Linear TV was the panacea for Toys and Gamers marketers, able to fulfil on most campaign objectives – chiefly the ability to deliver mass reach incredibly cost effectively, and, most importantly, to deliver a clear and positive impact on sales. However, as has been well documented, a decline in audiences has limited the effectiveness of TV in recent years. Whilst many of us are familiar with continual reports of double-digit YoY reductions, do we truly understand the absolute numbers these represent?

TV planning benchmarks have historically focused on building effective coverage and frequency – reaching a percentage of your audience enough times to elicit a sales response on a scale that makes the venture profitable. The migration of children’s audience away from traditional Linear TV means that, in isolation, this is unachievable.

Take the Children 4-9 audience as an example. In 2018, an efficient channel mix could deliver over 50% 1+ coverage (those to have seen the ad more or once) via the purchase of 575 CH4-9 TVRs. In 2022, it would take over three times as many CH4-9 TVRs to breach the 50% barrier. Particularly in Q4, this is not a viable option due to the level of inflation over the past five years, and the advertiser demand pressures placed on a limited supply of impacts. This outcome is repeated across all key Toys & Games demos, most notably the Girls 4-9 audience. It would take more than five times as many G4-9 TVRs to deliver 50% 1+ coverage compared to 2018. (Girls 4-9 were a strong contributor to the audience of the Disney portfolio, whose linear TV channels ceased broadcasting in the UK at the end of September 2020).

Subsequently this has had a knock-on effect on the frequency of messaging. Analysing the 4+ benchmarks (those who have seen the ad at least four times), the volume of TVRs required to deliver the same percentage as five years ago has not increased to the same extent as 1+ cover. For example, Boys 4-9 requires twice as many B4-9 TVRs to achieve 25% 4+ cover (2022 vs. 2018), compared to the 3x multiplier for 1+ coverage. This can be a benefit for some product categories (collectibles for example) but, given the spends that up until recently have been allocated to children’s TV, the frequency of the average Toys & Games campaign very often exceeds 10 (the average for the top 10 campaigns of 2021 was a frequency of 32).

In 2021, Toys & Games campaigns achieved an average of 24.4% 1+ reach and 11.4% reach in the UK. With an estimated 4.8m children aged 4-9 in the UK, this equates to 545k CH4-9 seeing the campaign 4 times or more. Based on the fact that the average conversion to sale falls below 5%, does this provide sufficient scale to reach sales forecasts?

In many cases, the answer to this is no. If we look back to the media landscape in 2018, this would have been a problem. However, in 2022 there are a plethora of cost effective, sales effective options available to advertisers, meaning that the diversification of children’s media habits needn’t be a hinderance to campaign success. In fact, we don’t have to look beyond the TV screen to find answers.

Far too often, we focus too heavily on terms such as ‘Linear’, ‘SVOD’ and ‘AVOD’. The reality for all audiences however, especially children, is that if something appears on a TV screen, then it is TV.

In 2021, almost a third of the total impressions across all YouTube campaigns which we managed and optimised were delivered on a TV screen (compared to 0% in 2018). This is having a positive effect on sales-related metrics such as purchase influence. For example, according to Giraffe Insights 28% of 4-9 year old survey respondents in October 2021 cited YouTube when asked “Where do you get inspiration for the products you want?”. TV was only quoted by 23% of 4-9 year olds. So, YouTube can increasingly fulfil sales metrics (providing investment levels are optimal), and in the modern media landscape where access is critical, it has a far higher reach than TV. Using advanced analytics from Optimus Plan, we can compare cover build across key media channels. Assessing the children 4-9 audience, buying the equivalent of 100 GRPs on YouTube would achieve an estimated 37-40% 1+ coverage, more than twice what TV can now deliver, and at a much lower cost in Q4.

So, what will become of TV in the children’s media landscape? Could it in fact undergo something of a renaissance? If we adapt the boundaries of what we consider to be ‘TV’, then this might not be a fanciful concept. Disney+ will roll out a commercial model in the US later this year, with this due to be extended to Europe in 2023. Data from Giraffe Insights indicates that Disney+ already commands a larger share of children’s viewing time than all the commercial children’s linear channels combined. Coupled with the “power of Disney” and the values which their content exudes, this has the potential to be a juggernaut within the framework of children’s media plans. And it will have knock on effects to other SVOD providers, with Netflix already openly talking about following suit - although they will let Disney+ take the risk on changing the subscription model and assess how this impacts subscriber numbers.

By the end of next year, ‘TV’ will be the domain of YouTube and Disney+, with the traditional Linear channels playing a supporting role. Beyond that, the dominance on the TV screen of “Digital First” propositions will only increase. It is not hard to imagine a world in which one or both of Paramount (Nickelodeon) and Warner Media (Cartoon Network) remove their channels from linear broadcast in favour of streaming platforms. At the same time, other “Digital First” business such as Moonbug (CoComelon, Blippi, etc.) will likely launch some form of “TV” based service.

At that point, data will be more crucial than ever to planning and optimising campaigns to deliver on objectives. This is why we continue to develop Optimus AI, through the integration of unique research from Giraffe Insights, and millions of data points from the thousands of campaigns we run annually. We will always adopt a test and learn policy to all campaigns and platforms that we work across, but this cannot take up too significant a proportion on the budget when demands are made on advertising budgets to pay back immediately. This is why it is critical to us to have such a robust view of what has the potential to deliver return on investment.

Jonathan Chambers Director of AV Investment, Generation Media.

Jonathan.Chambers@generationmedia.co.uk Tel: 0207 307 7906