Circana - Insight

Going around the trend

This month, Rory looks at key trends in toy markets across Europe, and examines how these compare to the UK market.

You will often see a trend number given for European toy markets, and the latest data reveals that trend is currently down -4% in value for YTD April 2024 versus 2023. Of course, Europe is made up of several countries - the -4% quoted represents seven countries added together. When we look at these countries individually, there is a range of differing trends from +6% to -7%, and of course, each country varies in size quite dramatically. The smallest European country in value size so far this year is Belgium, which is €128m, and the largest is Germany, which is €1.1bn. It's interesting to examine the current European toy trends and see what is driving the growth or decline, paying particular attention to any key differences to the UK market.

The best performer in Europe so far this year, and the only country in growth, is the Netherlands. This territory is growing in value terms by +6% compared to last year, though it is also the third smallest country in value size and makes up around 6% of the European toy market. When looking at supercategory trends, there are many similarities with other European countries, but also two big differences - The Netherlands is the only country where the Action Figures and Infant/Toddler & PreSchool Toys categories are growing. The top property in Action Figures - growing at +16% - is Funko Pop! There is also strong growth from Super Mario Bros, Pokémon and Smashers, and the growth from these properties is outperforming other European countries. In Infant/Toddler & Pre-School Toys, Little Dutch wooden toys are one of the top performers. The Netherlands is the key market for this brand, and it is adding value versus last year, outperforming many of the properties around it in this category. Paw Patrol is growing with double digit value growth too, and although there is growth in other countries, the trend in the Netherlands is the strongest across Europe.

France is the second largest country for toy sales in Europe, making up nearly a quarter of European toy sales. It is also the second-best performer in terms of trend, being flat versus 2023 in an overall European market which is down -4%. Two of the best performance areas in France are Games/Puzzles and Youth Electronics, with the growth for both supercategories being strongest in France. In Games & Puzzles, Pokémon is far and away the top property, with €50m in sales already in the first four months of the year and a trend of +15% vs. last year. Disney Lorcana is also a strong performer in France, which is the second largest country for sales behind Germany With over €1m Lorcana sales in the UK too, we are not far behind France. Within the Youth Electronics supercategory, Tamagotchi is growing strongly at +78%, ahead of any other country by some distance.

The other countries are all in decline, with Germany and the UK in the strongest decline at -7% for Germany and -5% for the UK. These two countries represent the largest and third largest markets, so these numbers are a significant contributor to the overall -4% figure for Europe.

One thing that all countries have in common is that the timing of Easter in 2024, which had an impact on sales. Europe had an overall trend of +5% in March, driven by growth across every country, with strongest growth in Belgium and France. However, the trend in April has been -15% collectively, with only the Netherlands not in decline at +1% growth versus April 2023. The Easter date has surely had an impact here, but it can’t be the sole reason for major declines in some countries; Germany, for example, is down -23% versus April 2023. One of the key losers in April was the Outdoor Toys category, with double digit decline across all countries, and we saw similar trends in Dolls and Games & Puzzles.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on these country trends as the year progresses, and there are potential factors that could influence some countries more than others. Could a strong Euros tournament for England (or even Scotland) boost stickers sales in the UK and help us a little more than others? How will the Olympics in Paris impact sales in France? And could we see a new product arrive out of the blue to boost sales in one particular country?

Licence Progression:

The European Soccer International licence has moved up 23 places in April 2024 compared to the previous month. This licence is effectively a collection of all Euro 2024 football items, primarily stickers and cards from Topps. As we move closer to the tournament kicking off in June, sales are starting to build steadily each month and the total licence was worth over £1m in April. The UEFA Euro 2024 Sticker Collection Multipack from Topps was the top item in April, with the Match Attax UEFA Euro 2024 Mega Starter Pack - also from Topps - at No.2. Although this type of item takes up most of the top spots, there are also significant sales for Topps Euro 2024 I Love Football Figure 6.5cm Asst, in the Action Figure Collectible category.

Top 10 Fastest Growing Properties - UK Toys

Ranked by value gained

Lego Icons has been a standout performer in 2024 and is the top gaining property for the year so far, adding nearly £5m in value versus the same period in 2023. The property had large sales peaks in February and March, with Valentines Day and Mother’s Day driving purchases of the botanical ranges in those months. Sales in both months were over £3m and although they dropped down to £1.3m in April, that performance was still enough for the range to be the No.13 property for the month. The Botanical range is the key driver of growth, although there were also strong numbers from licensed items from Ghostbusters and Dune in the latest month. The Lego Group has two other properties in the top gaining list: Lego Creator 3-1 and Lego Disney Classic.

Miniverse from MGA Entertainment is the third top gaining property in 2024 so far, with the total property adding around £1.9m in value versus 2023. Food based items have proved popular this year, and the top item for the brand is the Miniverse Make It Mini Food Diner Minis Asst, with an average price of £9.03. Miniverse is also the top performing collectible property in 2024.

The properties that take the next two spots both have a large share from Action Figures, with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles having 87% of value coming from this supercategory and Sonic the Hedgehog at just over 45%. Building Sets now makes up nearly a third of all value for Sonic the Hedgehog, significantly up from around 10% at the same time last year.

Gabby’s Dollhouse is the No.7 best performing property in 2024, with Pre-school Toys still making up the largest proportion of sales at 55% of all value. This is another property where Building Sets have grown in share, up to 15% of value this year.