6 minute read
Circana - Insight
When the going gets tough…
Rory looks at how even though 2023, and especially Q4, proved challenging for the UK toy market, innovation and unexpected best sellers means there is still much to applaud.
We’ve spent the last few weeks here at Circana talking to clients about how 2023 performed, and the overall headline is that it was one of the toughest years for the UK toy market that we’ve ever seen. The year finished at -5% in value, and Q4 was -7%, so the last quarter was actually behind the full year trend. Although as we cover 104 categories and there were over 300 toy manufacturers in our data in 2023, they can’t all have had a tough time. Despite the fact that Q4 was a challenging period, over 130 toy manufacturers added value for the quarter, so we should celebrate these top performers.
The list of top growth manufacturers in Q4 shows that the top manufacturers for value gain are all outside the Top 10 in value size. Winning Moves was the top performing toy manufacturer in Q4, and the company is ranked at No. 27 for value size. Looking down the Top 10 for value gain, there are three games manufacturers, indicating that the category enjoyed a good end to the year.
The figures bear that out: in the final quarter of 2023, sales of games held up well compared to the total market, with a trend of -3% for both Q4 and the month of December. Strong performances from specific categories included
family board/action games growing +2% in Q4, card games +4%, pre-school games +6% and electronic handheld games +50%. The growth is spread across a range of different areas and manufacturers too; family board/action games saw innovation such as Twister Air from Hasbro and Monopoly Squishmallows from Winning Moves. In card games, Uno from Mattel had another strong Q4 alongside Taco Cat Goat Cheese Pizza from Asmodee. Pre-school games saw new items having an impact, with Monkey Sea Monkey Poo from Spin Master the No. 2 item in the category for Q4, and Gooey Louie Pick a Winner from John Adams at No. 3, both new entrants in the pre-school games area. In electronic handheld and tabletop games there were more signs of innovation with the football-based game, Fanzone from Golden Bear, coming in at No. 4 for the category. Closely behind Winning Moves as the No. 1 top growth manufacturers in games is Big Potato at No. 2, outperforming many larger competitors and the ninth top gaining manufacturer in Q4 in toys overall. Titles like Herd Mentality and Chicken vs Hotdog are top items in family games and appeal to both adults and children.
Tonies was the No. 2 growth manufacturer in Q4 2023 and has moved up to being the No. 32 manufacturer for this period from No. 42 the year before. The Toniebox sits within
the infant/toddler & pre-school category, in which Tonies is now the No.6 manufacturer and the No. 2 for growth. The strength of licensing in 2023 helped this item, with a wide range of licences now available - growth came from Peppa Pig, Disney Princess and Paw Patrol, amongst others. Its performance was helped by new licences too, with new lines for Q4 featuring properties such as Lilo & Stitch, Ben & Holly and Roald Dahls Revolting Rhymes.
Another item to highlight is the Smart Ball Soccer Bot from Golden Bear, which had a fantastic November and was actually the No. 1 item in the total outdoor & sports toys category for Q4. In the month of November, this item was the No. 18 item in the total toy market and could have been a top item in Q4 if there had been additional stock. The popularity of this football-based line means it should carry on to enjoy a very strong 2024, with the European Football Championships in the summer.
The finger/extreme vehicles subclass was one of the top growth subclasses in Q4, with double digit growth of +26%.
Tech Deck was the standout property within this subclass and grew by +27% for the quarter with growth across a number of items. At the end of summer, the 2024 Olympics will be held in Paris, and with skateboarding now a fixture of the summer Olympics, we should see this brand and category get a boost out of the exposure the sport will receive.
These strong performances illustrate that even in challenging times, there was some real innovation in the UK toy market over the past year. 2023 was undoubtedly a tough year, but that doesn’t mean we can’t celebrate success. Growth in toys often comes from unexpected areas - which perhaps means they should be celebrated even more.
Property Progression:
World Soccer has risen 15 places in the rankings in January 2024 compared to its position in Dec 2023. The World Soccer property contains several football-related lines: in January, the largest part of the overall value came from the National Soccer Club licence, which is where Premier League items sit. The Adrenalyn brand from Panini is up +61% in January 2024 vs. the same month last year, with a number of items showing strong sales for the first month of 2024. The Adrenalyn XL Premier League 2023 2024 Mega Tin is the top seller, followed by the Adrenalyn XL Premier League 2023 2024 Multipack.
Top 10 Fastest Growing Licenses
- Ranked by value gained
2023 was another strong year for licensing and the share of licences within the toy market rose to a record high. In January 2024 total licensing declined by -4% but that was still ahead of the total market decline of -9%.
Star Wars was the top growth licence in January, as well as being the top licence in value size. This performance was once again primarily driven by The Lego Group, which made up nearly 80% of all Star Wars value. The Lego Star Wars Millennium Falcon Ultimate Collector Series item reached No. 6 in the total market - at an average price of £624.
Gabby’s Dollhouse was the second-best performing licence, with growth across several categories including Pre-school Figures, Building Sets and Plush Toys. Spin Master remains the leading manufacturer for this licence, although other manufacturers are now securing larger shares of the overall sales. Spin Master accounted for over 90% of the licence in January 2023, but in 2024 this is just over 60% with The Lego Group, Posh Paws and Ravensburger all taking significant share.
Sonic the Hedgehog was the third best performing licence and with the Sonic 3 movie coming at the end of 2024, we should see a strong year for this video game-based property. Just under half of all value for Sonic the Hedgehog is in Building Sets, with just over 40% in Action Figures. Both of these categories grew in January 2024, while there was also growth in Outdoor Toys, Plush and Games & Puzzles.
