Circana - Insight

Value judgement

In 2025, consumers are expected to seek out an increase in everyday value over promotions, which Rory says can only be a good thing for the toy market.

One thing that is always interesting coming out of the toy fairs in the early part of the year is the key trends under discussion following what we’ve seen and heard at numerous meetings and stand tours. Circana presents on the key trends of the year at both London and Nuremberg toy fairs, which gives us a great opportunity to see how our clients respond to these insights. At this year’s presentations, the big themes of 2024 including pricing, collectibles, kidults and how to drive growth in 2025.

Of all the subjects that we highlighted, the one that promoted the most discussion and debate was pricing. One particular point highlighted a drop in consumers looking for promotions, and an increase in looking for ‘everyday value’, that really seemed to resonate with the audience. We can talk about what value means to consumers, but the data of the last year and in 2025 seems to suggest that toy buyers are becoming more driven by price than ever before, but this doesn’t necessarily mean they are looking for big promotions. Looking at the data from last year - and what’s happened in 2025 so far - can shine a light on some of the trends in pricing in the UK toy market.     

Our Sentiment Study asked consumers how the economic climate has changed their shopping behaviour over the last few months. In 2023 around a fifth of consumers said they were looking for promotions; in 2024 that had dropped to only 9%, whilst consumers saying they were looking for cheaper products had jumped from 31% to 40%. The level of promotions that happened in UK toys in Q4 went up by six percentage points: 38% of all purchases were bought on promotion, the highest in Europe. However, this rise in the level of promotions did not drive growth – indeed, it accounted for 71% of the volume loss in Q4. This poses the question, is there too much promotion in the UK? One comment we heard repeatedly from suppliers at London Toy Fair was that manufacturers want to be competitive on price and aim to ensure consumers feel like they are getting real value. In 2024, the average price for the year was flat at £10.74, the first time it hasn’t risen since 2021. There was a drop in 2021 after a big rise in 2020, driven by the pandemic and lockdowns driving parents to trade up with toy purchases.

Looking at the price point split for 2024, we can see those items priced £15 and under held up relatively well, with a trend of -1% versus 2023. At the other end of the scale, items over £70 were the top performing bracket, with growth of +4% versus the year before. The UK enjoyed a good December, with a monthly trend of +5% in value compared to the overall year being -4%. In December, the best performing price band is the £10-15 area which added nearly £10m compared to December 2023, a growth trend of +13%. The £0-10 area performed well too, adding nearly £3m to the toy market in December. In the £10-15 price point the top performing properties are Squishmallows, Funko Pop and Pokémon, highlighting a key trend that is helping the market here – collectibles.

Collectibles had a high share in 2024; the growth we are seeing in this area shows that consumers are keen to purchase items which are on trend and also at the value price point they are looking for.

Moving into 2025, are we still seeing the same trends? The market has got off to a strong start this year with +7% growth versus last year and some of the key trends we saw at the toy fairs have continued to drive sales. Collectibles has made up a large share of this promising start with a +30% trend. Looking at the top performing categories in 2025, collectibles has affected eight of the top 10 categories for value gain. The price point splits indicate that the trend of 2024 seems to be continuing, with £0-15 one of the top performers, adding around £4m in the first month of the year alone. In the top 10 items for value, there are five items with an average price of less than £10, and three of those have an average price of less than £5.

The early signs for 2025 are that consumers are continuing to look for value and it is this trend, coupled with strong products and real innovation, that is growing the market. Promotions are an important tool in helping growth, but maybe this year we can look at a drop in the level of promotions and see that as a positive sign?                

Property Progression:

The Fortnite property moved up from a ranking outside the top 200 to No. 40 in January 2025. This was due to the launch of the Lego Fortnite range, which is new for 2025. The Lego Group makes up just over 90% of all Fortnite value in January 2025, with four key items making up that value. The Fortnite Battle Bus is the top selling item and was actually the No. 8 item in the total toy market for January at an average price of £89. Across these four items, average prices range from just over £12 for the Fortnite Durrr Burger and up to £89 for the Battle Bus.

Fastest Growing Subclasses

The month of January grew +7% in value and has given 2025 a very welcome positive start to the year. Among strong performances across a range of subclasses, one subclass stands out ahead of all the others: Strategic Trading Cards. This subclass grew by +110% in January with the top property, Pokémon, growing by +70% and being worth around half of the overall subclass. Pokémon has two items in the top 10 for the total market with the highest, the Pokémon Scarlet & Violet Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box, at No. 2. There was also growth in this subclass from Disney Lorcana and Match Attax, which both saw double digit growth for the month too.

The second-best performing subclass in January was Action Figure Collectibles, with growth of +23% versus the same month in 2024. Funko Pop! is the top property with Sonic the Hedgehog at No. 2, showing strong growth after the third movie was released in cinemas at the end of December. Mr Beast Lab was a top performer in Action Figures in Q4 2024 and continues that performance, now at No. 5 in Action Figure Collectibles and the top new property in the subclass.

The third best performer is Miscellaneous Toys, and the top three performing subclasses all have a high share of Collectibles, with Zuru’s 5 Surprise and MGA’s Miniverse the top two properties in this subclass. The overall subclass grew by +7%, but Collectibles within the subclass grew by +30% to be a key part of the overall growth. The 5 Surprise Mini Brands Master Chef Create Mystery Asst from Zuru is the top item, followed by the Miniverse Hello Kitty And Friends Make It Mini Food Asst from MGA at No. 2.